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Week 5 Quick Review & Week 6 Start October 14, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, NFL, Stacks, Week 5, Week 6.
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So, I’m going to keep this brief. I got way too ballsy this past week. Too many tournaments, too much risk, and not enough lineups to increase variation. I got slammed with wrong choices in having Demaryius / Julio in almost all line-ups. I got hurt by Lacy’s lack of pass-catching (and too much emphasis on home success for GB) & JC’s injury. TE & D/ST picks were bad, as well. Charles Clay didn’t do anything & Bennett was targeted 11 times but caught only 4 in what played out as an underperform. Jaguars got shellacked and the Giants, for whatever reason, created minimal pressure Sunday night. Well – that’s a lot of bad in spots that statistically should have been consistently high-floor.

So, the good? Rivers & Bell saved my ass Monday night so I didn’t get blanked. I wasn’t on ABrown due to Vick’s lack of rapport with him, which was good in a fade-case. Allen Robinson performed with Blake Bortles (who I was on in a few leagues). Rivers had a few good games. Brady/Edelman worked out after the 4th qtr touchdown but Gronk disappointed for how expensive he was. Dion Lewis was productive. I was not on Devonta Freeman and he continued to have a nice game. I also faded a good Doug Martin spot (suspect weather, minimal passing potentially). I figured that I would have scored with a few lineups in the high 140’s but I didn’t. Only one lineup hit 165+ and cashed on DK.


Week 6
I will try to do better – buckled down and read through more of Jonathan Bales’ series Fantasy Football for Smart People. Staying consistent with bankroll management and being diligent with a process weekly will be vital in success. To compile the statistics, I’ll likely use a trial for DailyFantasyNerd or Fantasy Labs to ensure I have the data in one spot. I could create a page for myself, but that will be fine-tuning what I want to use consistently.

So, let’s start with defenses. I read through Bill Barnwell of Grantland’s NFL Statistical Temperature. Without looking at this week’s schedule, I pared down defenses that I would be interested in playing, depending on home/away, weather, opponent, in no particular order.

Denver, Arizona, GB, NYJ (w/out a D TD so far) are the top tier. TEN, DET, NE, CIN, SEA, CAR would be the next, likely. PHI, MIN and ATL have been making plays but could be inconsistent depending on game flow.

RB’s – Forte, Foster, TJ Yeldon look good so far. Ryan Mathews has been productive. Do we continue to ride Devonta?
WR’s – Hopkins is just gobbling up targets for ppr leagues. AJ Green could be interesting – I feel like Dalton alternates between his receivers/tight ends. Just focuses in on them. EIfert was last week so Green could be this week. We cannot forget about TASER, Bryan Mears’ new statistic – anticipatory of red zone regression for touchdowns (potentially). Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen headline it. Of those, I’d think Cooper & Golden Tate are most likely to score (Denver needs to get NEAR the red zone first and Keenan may be left out since Antonio is back). Let’s flip a coin between Hurns/Robinson again or play them both – that’s worked before. Snead on a Thursday night could be a fade position, or minimal play because of the cheap cost still. We all THINK it will be high-scoring… but will it on a Thursday with Julio in pain? I’d like to think that it won’t be and be in better position Sunday.

TE’s – I’ll have some action with Gronk & Gates. Chargers will have to throw against GB. Eifert played incredibly on Sunday (thanks to that for my main season-long league). Barnidge is apparently a) a real-life football player and b) target monster. Charles Clay is near the top of TASER as well, but with Tyrod potentially out, I may want to avoid that Bills line-up altogether.

These are my initial thoughts – I’ll see today and tomorrow what I can put together and post going forward.

Good luck to the ALDS teams today in their Game 5’s!

Happy to say my Red Wings in NHL are an impressive 3-0-0 with a +7 differential to go with the Broncos 5-0. Keep it up!

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