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Disorganized Trying to Organize (Notes from Feb 3 – Feb 9, 2020) August 4, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Acquisitions, Automation, Blockchain, Coronavirus, Daily fantasy football, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Healthcare, Leadership, NBA, questions, social, sports, Strategy, Streaming, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Productivity tools have been all the rage. Those familiar with adoption of new technology or tools in an office setting bigger than 20 people have likely been through what’s described as the J curve for adoption, popularized by Erik Brynjolfsson and Daniel Rock in their paper (see: https://economics.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9386/f/brynrocksyv_j-curve_final.pdf) of September 2018 on general purpose technologies. There is a slope downward to start for the adoption because the productivity decrease and difficulty in trying to set it up often leads to a loss. Over time and the consistent use, it can go away and lead to the productivity gains we sought in the first place.

Well, I’m in that too many tools, too many valleys section. Bundle and use a tool that tries to do it all? Or unbundle and use multiple tools. If you are trying to optimize notes for one platform and it doesn’t work for your other platforms (mobile/to-go/car), is it optimal? Is 90% great if you miss on the 10% you don’t have a good solution for? I’m not sure. I’m hopeful that audio can work easily – may even jump into Otter.ai for transcription there.

A family friend of ours was so obsessed with keeping track of all his clothes, colors and features that he took it upon himself to build a database of his closet. Upon telling someone else, I recall a similar story for someone who went further and did bar codes on their clothes. You spend so much time obsessing over something you’d love organization over until that organizing takes up the time you were hoping to save. We could take this further and draw similar analogies to corporate, big companies compared to start-ups in growth as an early employee – always something to be done, may not be optimizing the work, just attempting to get something out compared to optimization runs for something that worked until it breaks. Exciting work on either end but ultimately, there’s a line you must draw.

There are tons of benefits to organization for notes, processes, documentation in that someone could come in at any point and figure out what connects to what. There’s a context. I think YourStacks is doing something like this for personal / professional use of tools and games and everything one comes into contact. There have been corporate / enterprise stack technology sites that break down webpage technology or company technologies. Then there are transparent people / companies who document it both privately and publicly for others to see. We try what we think may improve but it’s tough to know where to start.

There’s a lesson to be learned here in starting, trying to going from there. Some of us want to try to optimize all the tools or one tool to its fullest before moving forward. How good is good? Or not good enough? At what point do you pass to the next or add another tool? How many tools are too many? And will we get a bundling or unbundling of different aspects? I’m hopeful we get voice tools that enable bundling for all sorts of this. Currently, I’ve yet to find the solution. Let me know what your set is!

  • Dr. Tara Smith, Professor of Epidemiology at Kent State University College of PH, Erik Moses (Wharton Moneyball 2/5/20)
    • Hockey – East and West split of conferences currently, top 4 teams in the East and defending champs Blues in the West are 5th
      • More or less deterministic (coin flips previously) – 50% as max from a conference if coin flips
    • Mookie Betts as trying to get 10 year, $40 mil per because he’s so young
    • Joined in August 2013 after being at Univ of Iowa in Emerging Infectious Diseases
  • Chetan Puttagunta, GP at Benchmark Capital (Invest like the Best 1/28/20)
    • Investing in early-stage, MongoDB, Elastic, Mulesoft and advice for POS in enterprise software building Canvas
    • MongoDB – 2012 and had experience building consumer apps from 2007-08 trying to build tech that was pretty limited
      • Felt like an advantage between large companies with proprietary data and tools compared to DIY
      • Met Elliott (MongoDB founder, from DoubleClick) – would ask best devs to work with Mongo and they responded “Don’t need”
      • DB expert – MySQL can work with everything but would miss the class of devs that wanted without planning for scale, app may not work
      • DB could handle scale, millions of users, transactional data by 2015-16, right place right time
      • Oracle as building a great database business and moved into application tier with their apps built on their db
        • CRM, HCM (Peoplesoft) to serve application – 1977 to true leader in databases in 80s, relational
      • Other timing – 1992, for instance, and it would not have worked. Cloud has been so open to these techs.
      • Cockroach for globally scalable, relational db – TimeScale for time-series IoT model, for instance after cloud enabled it
        • Specific use cases have more specifically-tailored results
      • Initiating and potential TAM Salesforce estimates from the start compared to now, where it’s much larger now than suspected
    • Now, enterprise software permeates into companies all over for IoT and consumer tech
      • Caterpillar, Pharma, Financial Services, Shipping companies are all buyers
      • Diva built a CRM system for healthcare vertical on general CRM, Salesforce – multibillion dollar company
      • Client facing software is very important – system that will be helpful and customers will tackle that and tell you directly
    • People come to work and complete a specific job or task – not to work or be an expert with your software
      • New tool into a workflow, only certain amount of walls to learn the software before leaving
      • Go slow to go fast – if you’re building a software solution in the start, build for 5-10 important users
        • Address the needs of those customers – generally applicable to the market (not just the single customer)
        • Won’t become an outside services or dev shop if you deliver services to the general customer
      • Workday and Viva early days – 50% of revenue were services since they entered enterprises (large installation of PeopleSoft)
        • On-prem CRM for Viva – lots of handholding, data migration and such
    • Duffel (Global Distribution System) for airlines selling to consumers
      • Convoluted system to sell and the flows is astounding – entrepreneurs in payments looking to innovate in these instances
      • Found airlines and approached them to “Shouldn’t it work like this?” to get your first partners/customers
      • Patient capital of “go slow to go fast” to super efficient business – spreadsheet vs software
        • Example at Greg Shaw – Mulesoft – burned $8mln from $100mln to 200mln in revenue and burned $4mln from 2-300mln
          • Inside Salesforce, they’ve grown top-line revenues further
    • Unlikely that someone else is building what you’re building
      • 2004 – Salesforce selling CRM, main competitor was Seibel – Salesforce had ACV of $4k and 15 licenses at a time vs Seibel $100k/1k
        • Go after the larger competitors when you have thousands of customers and users ecstatic about your product
      • Won’t run into competitors directly, just objections to your own system, since it’s incomplete
        • Valuing you against their internal/custom solution – take time to create product maturity before prematurely scaling
    • If you’re not missing as an investor, you aren’t taking enough shots
      • 1x your capital if you miss compared to if you pass, miss on 10x or 100x
      • At Benchmark, they’re making 5-10 investments per year, so it’s 1-2 per partner
    • Recruiting and sales – candidates have to feel very good as they go through the proces
      • Only way to scale the software business is to hire the best people to make the software
    • Hard to stand out in SF as an enterprise software integration problem (Mulesoft)
      • Competing with FAANG in a limited labor market, have to be able to recruit amazing talent
      • For start-ups, they have 2 advantages: really exciting for them to embrace remote talent (global market)
        • Running a remote company at scale has very little to do with the tools, and more so with the work culture that’s friendly
        • Everyone meets remotely on video, even in same room
        • Writing a lot of documentation, transparency about thinking in the wikis docs so anyone can catch up
      • Offline ad inventory is very efficient – account-based enterprise software ads at airports – targeting top of funnels
      • How do you transmit a culture that was highly efficient in 10 person to 20 or 100 or 1000 and further, if you’re doing 100% each year
        • 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 haven’t been there for more than 1 year, 2 years, 3, etc..
    • Most portable of early stage investing – Bill Gurley’s blog on CAC and LTV
      • Going down unit economic traps are widely applicable to all tech businesses, consumer, enterprise, etc
        • Can’t drive spreadsheet growth with CAC/inorganic growth for LTV numbers
      • Product engagement – customers in consumer and enterprise
    • Benchmark as 5 equal partners at the firm, no juniors or others
      • Don’t have a NEXT topic that they have to move on to because of this, so open-ended discussions can go very deep
        • Wide networks so they can get useful people to talk
      • Probably not a question that they can’t answer
  • Adam Draper, Founder & CEO of Boost VC (20min VC 2/24/16)
    • Seed stage accelerator, blockchain and VR
    • Before Boost, angel invested in 20+ co’s, including Coinbase, Plangrid, Practice Fusion
      • Geography – heart of SV and ecosystem of entrepreneurs, recently adding V/R to build
    • Founder of Xpert Financial after UCLA graduation, helping later stage companies raise capital in private markets
      • Made every mistake – funding, hiring, firing, product
      • Helped early-stage companies build product and raise capital, including for a friend – wanted to mentor in bulk
        • As a family, helping people get to where they want to go
    • Meeting a lot of people while raising money and helping – took him 12 months to raise his fund
      • $6.6mln after reaching out to 3k, 350 meetings and closed ~35 – basically rule of 10
    • Had 52 investments in blockchain accelerator (had about ~120 companies) among currency/contracts-based work
      • Been in industry for 3 years, seeing mature products and higher quality
    • Mentioned MuggleNet as his favorite blog and TechCrunch
    • JoyStream by a solo founder, trying to merge BitTorrent / BTC
  • Coronavirus (a16z 16min on the News #21, 1/29/20)
    • Judy Savitskaya – 2019-nCoV – 10-20% common cold vs epidemic ones would be severity
    • Sequencing this virus has been incredibly quick (within 2 weeks of genome) whereas it’s taken longer in past
      • If someone in SF said they had a cold at a general clinic, they could decide if it’s this or not
      • Figuring out treatments and protocols based on genome and live medicine
    • Spike proteins used to enter into lung cells didn’t look as bad as SARS, so they thought it was fine
      • Turns out that it’s actually very similar to the protein
    • Nobody really knows – animal sources of viruses (evolving away from human hosts, time in animals)
      • R0 – number of people you’d expect to get sick for every one person that has it
      • Breaking down variables in R0 – how well does virus transmit itself (easy in air, for instance)
        • Is it good at infecting cells? What’s the population like? (Chinese New Year and traveling often)
      • If virus is not that deadly, additional time in the host that can get infected (individually, if deadly and fast, population better)
    • Increase in genomic medicine – Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations gave out 3 grants to pharma co’s totaling $12.5mln
      • 12-16 weeks time to develop new drugs based on the new sequence
  • Epic Battles in Healthcare, FICO Changes (a16z 16min on the News #22, 2/6/20)
    • FinTech GP’s Angela Strange and Anish Acharya
    • Starting with what is a FICO score – 5 factors: payment history, credit utilization, length of history, new credit, credit mix
      • FICO 2, 3, and 10 now as FICO comes out with reweighting
        • 1 trillion in credit card debt now, so people refi from 25% to 12% loans, but it doesn’t change user spending habits
        • Better job of incorporating debt over a long period of time
      • Designed in 1950s to create a proxy for willingness to pay, originally – now, it’s mostly lenders that have their own algorithms
      • Good lenders will use FICO as a factor but they have their own robust models
    • Hacks such as adding kids as authorized users
    • Old time, 50-100 years credit decisions made on generations, kids play ball with bankers, etc
      • Bank of Italy (now Bank of America), would make loans to Italian immigrants that other banks wouldn’t lend to
      • 2 drivers – willingness and ability to pay
    • International vs US – in US, most decisions decided on score/report, not alternative data
      • In international countries, great way to bootstrap a lending business as a proxy for consumer
      • Difficult to introduce alternative data in the US , cash flow streams for instance
    • Epic’s CEO (EHR information on data) letter sent – with Julie Yoo bio GP
      • Rule that’s been around for 1 year in context of a longer standing law
        • Opening healthcare records from ONC (Office of National Coordinator for CMS), gov agencies overseeing healthcare spend
      • 21st Century CURES Act – Upton and Waldon – means by which we implement the act (healthcare costs will rise, care will suffer)
        • Contending with nonprofit orgs with slim margins
      • Uniquely stored in healthcare data is the doctors’ context (and dialogue) – for what reason would you need the context vs “code”
      • Connecting data between APIs and interoperability – major concept
    • Clause in rule about screenshot sharing – contractual obligations not to share screenshots
      • In trying to see a workflow in a system to connect yours efficiently – one of Julie’s customers at EHR company got hand-slapped for sharing
    • Annual meeting with OMB and ONC for driving sharing and interoperability – Epic wasn’t there – everyone else, systems, plans, incumbents, big tech, EHRc
      • HHS secretary was saying that scare tactics won’t affect what they’re looking for
  • Introduction to ARK’s Big Ideas 2020 (FYI 1/13/20)
    • James Wang interviewing Cathie Wood, CEO/CIO at ARK Invest
      • Building on other years – DL, EV, 3D printing, autonomous ride hailing, automation, genome sequencing, digital wallets and Bitcoin
    • New ones – streaming media, aerial drones and biotech R&D efficiency
    • Streaming media – changing behavior patterns should catapult the industry, roughly $80-90bn, projecting $400bn+ in next 4 years
      • Most people couldn’t understand why she was buying Amazon at $5bn cap at her old firm (when no profits)
        • Believed about their revenues would increase CAGR at 25% for 20 years, deep value play (exp growth wasn’t understood)
      • Terrible sales out of box retailers – want to survive and go to online
      • Gaming could consume media, so is value in content or platforms (say, Tencent showing the way, maybe) – larger than box office now
        • Every time music has come out, it has cannibalized the other, older parts as replacement
        • Gaming was different – expansive, explosive market as stacking (mobile only added to consoles and others)
    • Aerial drones – early side of S curve still – released a paper in 2014 suggesting that if FAA would allow Amazon to deliver parcels over 10 mi
      • Amazon, at that time, could have done it profitably for just $1 per parcel for 5 lb package, for instance
      • Food delivery now, air taxis / passenger drones and given battery tech, could save 20k lives associated with heart attacks – drone faster than ambulance
        • Projecting $275bn food delivery (3mi Delivery for cars is about $4.85 – $5) – drones could do it for $.20, profitably
    • Biotech R&D Efficiency as converging Nextgen sequencing, AI, CRISPR editing
      • Impact on pharma and biotech sector
      • Fewer trial failures with DNA sequencing and companion diagnostics for trials, time to market decrease
        • Human trials, CRISPR is curing things such as Beta-_ and sickle cell (2 people)
      • Value-based pricing could be installment payments, for every year you live – reduction of trials and drugs to market, higher pricing utility
        • Margin structure could follow more of 1980s and 90s (mid20-30s) – innovations were exhausted from there, but now should be innovative
      • CRISPR and gene therapies are delivering great results, cures and evidence of these
        • AI and software side with mundane, life science has supported SaaS company in Viva – extremely motivated for productivity structure
        • Most AI companies doing R&D drug discovery are early, M&A ripe – tech in Alpha Go search problems, for instance
      • Analysts can’t just be healthcare, have to be technology as well – permeating every sector
    • Over past year, innovation has been highly valued in private space – too few opportunities with too much capital
      • Private is valued much higher – seeing some disappointments, public markets should be ripe (P/E ratio is not ideal)
      • 5 year opportunities, not 1-2 timeline and finding out how much growth they’re going to deliver

Power of Consistency (Notes from Jan. 20 to Jan 26, 2020) July 8, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Acquisitions, Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, Digital, experience, finance, Gaming, global, Leadership, marketing, RPA, Strategy, Time, TV.
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It’s impressive for how much consistency matters, as long as you’re open.

Sometimes, it’s every week. Maybe it’s daily. Maybe more than that? Is it a post? Is it a photo? Tweeting 10x a day? There is probably some magic number for each frequency, based on platform and content that, over time, eventually takes off. I don’t think it’s spelled out because there are likely ranges for each. That’s the beauty of the internet, now. Niches are actually very large – and if you’re consistent in posting about something you enjoy – eventually, if you landed in a sweet spot, you may be rewarded for it. The opportunity arises where you land on an audience of a community you enjoy being a part of – and now you can share at will. It becomes easier to be public.

Maybe the ease by which any of us continue down this path is rooted in the writing or habit itself. Maybe it’s your work. Maybe how you spend your money. A tool you use? Something you picked up knowledge from friends or a trend you happened to stumble on in a podcast that piqued your interest. Any way you draw it up, if you can repeatedly talk about it and enjoy it, it stays the course. If you’re public in a manner that others can find you, you can reach that audience.

It feels like we have plenty of solutions to get this out – it takes the effort of an individual or group of individuals to be motivated enough to repeatedly produce that content. Thankfully, I write a bit here and on Twitter, mostly. Should be more consistent myself. Used to be a part of a weekly podcast. Now I feel like I have ideas to push others – without accountability, it falls off. Groups and communities like Indie Hackers, No-code and Makerpad or other niches on Facebook/LinkedIn/Slack/Discord, Substack or even WordPress here provide that. Seek your people out!

  • CES 2020 – Screens, 8K, 5G, Cars, Micromobility, Smart Home (16 Minutes News by a16z 1/18/20)
    • Flexible screens in phones (Samsung), folding – around a business as billboard
      • Fold and unfold – suboptimal experience for usage of the phone outside of big screens
      • Phones as biggest volume driver in displays – grow market
      • Should make folding PC was next step – Dell, Lenovo, Intel (B5 is half A4 – tablet-sized to 11 or 12″ notebook)
        • Mainstream high-performance folding screens and touch surfaces – everywhere you go
    • Screens and production process now on Moore’s Law, as well
      • Production too fragmented, software in tv slows down innovation
      • 8K will happen but it will cost more
    • WiFi 6, 5G at current and new mm
      • 20 carriers are spending $100bn extra a year to roll this out
      • Last mile is the battle – IEEE for WiFi – commodity access points, sim cards
    • Cars stealing show – Sony, this year
    • Power battery – USB-C is now the AC input of the home
      • Batteries and storage for energy will be everything very shortly
  • Rob Salvagno, VP of Corp Dev at Cisco Investments (20min VC 12/30/19)
    • M&A efforts, investment capital, lead Meraki ($1.2bn acquisition) and AppDynamics ($3.7bn), along with recent Duo ($2.3bn)
      • Prior investment banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
    • Went to Stanford thinking he wanted to be a doctor, Netscape went public in early days there and wanted a way into tech
      • Wanted to go into investment banking or consulting – entry into tech was IB, first in SF then in Sand Hill – analyst at DLJ (president at Oracle’s first analyst)
      • Very transactional without any role or ownership – sent resume into resume @ Cisco . Com and got his role
    • Investments or M&A, bringing perspective – boom over past decade but we lived through 2000-01 and 07-08
      • How’s this business model stand up without capital flowing? How’s the CEO going to perform in challenging times? Growth multiple of 20-30x
      • Capital efficiency: attractive of business model – will look at valuations
        • Cisco wants to know if they create value in business, what are the levers for that – distribution channel, product within their architecture
        • Can improve operating model in a few ways – accelerate profitability with Cisco (growing at 30%, but maybe 60%)
    • Cisco starts with their measure of CorpDev – can they get company to do something that they wouldn’t be able to do with them
      • Companies think they can often do things on their own – Cisco recognizes the broader source of innovation within VC and outside capital
      • Strategy first and deal second – work hand-in-hand with biz unit to collaborate with teams inside to shift pov for where to go
        • Acquisitions can get them there – magic happens with the business units inside Cisco
    • Motivation for investment wants to make portfolio companies successful to help Cisco
      • Believe opp to invest in best-in-class company in market that is interesting – tight partnership over 2 quarters or 3 years, shared expectations
      • High multiple transaction to be avoided isn’t necessarily true
    • If you’re GM of Cisco Security Business – outside innovation as strategy is fundamental for the business
      • If you decided acquisition makes sense, have to position it for success inside Cisco from financial, opex, funding position
      • Levels of approval to CFO, CEO compared to billion-dollar acq with board (mentions AppDynamics acquisition within 3 days of their IPO)
      • More PE firms getting involved into tech companies is better for the business and more innovation
        • Multiples that are unprecedented for PE firms
    • SDRAM, iRAM – 10-12 startups for big market and seemingly new oppy
      • Cisco had an internal company and went out to talk to startup called MetaCloud
        • Market started to take off and they looked at M&A – scan of industry, acquired
    • Cisco has done 200+ acquisitions, knows their mistakes
      • Platform to accelerate founder visions, they’re also enabled – David Yooliwitch (Founder of OpenDNS, former Cisco investment)
        • Acquired, 100mln company but David became head GM of Security of Cisco – multibillion
    • Difficult with Cisco – going from hardware to cloud – belief in a successful transition
    • Changing about tech industry – entrepreneurs not getting best advice when they need it (first time vs multiple, etc..)
    • CloudCherry – acq in collab – customer journey and future of work – predictive analytics on contact center (how to deal with customers)
      • 2nd acq – Voicea – AI and ML on top of Cisco portfolio (ex WebEx – transcribe, meeting notes, flag action items agreed and integrate into workflow)

Best Ways to Push People to Create (Notes from Jan 13 to Jan 19, 2020) June 30, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, NBA, social, sports, storytelling, Strategy, Time, TV, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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So, my title is a bit misleading because I don’t have the answer. It’s a bit annoying. I have many friends and family members that will cite an interest in making something, or even more generally, wanting something to be made. I try to encourage if there’s even an interest of a consistency in what they’re looking to do. It’s worth sharing if they enjoy it. Encouragement isn’t the part that’s lacking. There’s an accountability or fear of not having the time be worth it.

To me, that’s a bit of a weakness. Sure, you can be scared that it won’t be monetarily advantageous to do it – but that’s the part where your own curious/enjoyment makes up for it. If you’re interested, you may be more likely to generally share and stay consistent than if you’re not. Immediate gratification doesn’t go hand-in-hand with consistency, though. And then the starting point usually has a bit of work. All of this adds up to psyching oneself out before ever starting. All the while, we continue scrolling to the next thing, wondering aloud how nice it seems to be sharing something that we’re moderately interested in.

  • Peter Guber, Dodgers/Warriors co-owner (KindredCast – WhartonXM)
    • Lion Tree CEO Aria Borkhov with Chairman/CEO of Mandalay Entertainment, 4 sports teams
    • Hollywood productions for 5 Best Picture nominations (Rain Man winner), Midnight Express, Flash Dance, Batman, Soulsurfer
      • “Tell to Win” best-selling author
    • Also owner of Team Liquid and LA FC, professor at UCLA Anderson, Media
    • Recorded at the end of WS 2018 – never before having World Series Game 7 at Dodgers stadium
    • Can’t just make hits – ups-and-downs are part of the journey, can’t fail will make it so you don’t have success
    • Missed out on Dodgers originally when McCourt was buying from FOX, but asked to put up money at last hour, so he backed out
      • Magic brought him in 9 years later and he was more familiar since he owned the AAA team in Oklahoma City
      • Culture providing leadership and top-down, being managing partner
      • Bring best talent, resourcefulness, undervalued performance from someone as surprises, having a long and short-game
        • If short-term doesn’t work, the long-term rarely is cared for
    • Caring fully for his team – listen to the audience and imagine their experience is theirs and creating relationships
      • Crucial since you can’t get another audience every time – music, movies, sports
      • Brand affinity as breeding success – crucial that word-of-mouth is more powerful than a 30second clip anywhere
        • Looks at it like bond / what the product means for people
      • Audiences expect experiences (how do they feel, what’s the benefit, life) – customers/consumers are looking to spend only / wallets
    • Media – Game 6 had 2nd best since 2009 for viewership
      • How do you get technology into media? Twitter paid $10mln with football, Amazon paid $50mln, Facebook with MLB
      • Linear broadcasting – audience getting every media at once, same way – can’t act on it (analog to digital)
        • Know the individual audience, can talk to friends/you directly – interface with social group, react and a participant
        • Cultivate participation – don’t know about all people generally but now, know the particulars
      • Digital natives – always growing, never had cords – companies need both linear and digital sense
      • Dancing with the enemy – like to kill the other, one is an ally/adversary at different times
      • Can’t take an analog advertisement and plunk it on to digital – won’t be the same
      • When he was in China doing business, he had to go through an interpreter – didn’t have the same feeling/attitude
      • Each sport has unique challenges (and movies) – movie-going has turned into “going to a movie”
        • Driving away from habituation (movie on Fridays) vs (“Let’s go to A movie”)
    • Narrative of baseball – can look at different things, fantasy, play-by-play and story
      • Basketball is rapid so you have to address down-time in a different format – paces are more important (digital can help)
      • Gambling will introduce a new evolution – betting on emotions, last-pitch, blowouts will be important still
    • Esports – Team Liquid in SC2, LoL, HotS, Overwatch, Halo, CoD, DotA
      • True digital native and a culture change – lifestyle connection is different
      • Became invested in technology after joining Sony and his unique way – his life is connection of artists and audiences
        • How do you create value and multiply value?
        • Consumption with esports as 3 things – expansion, underserving market, global, participatory (could play along)
        • Esports as the music for 18-25 now, lights up their heart (“shut off that music”), engagement attraction
      • Have to understand the language, special – challenge to make money
    • Escape velocity for colleges and training, scholarships – getting older
      • Only got into esports Mark Merrill (Riot Games) came to leadership course and was talking about League of Legends, lit him up
    • Advertising planning, consumer information, still very early
      • 1 to 1 engagement is the biggest difference – 1 to many probably outdated or less effective
    • Made a long bet on VR – 5 years ago – they’re the director – mediators give you the meaning
      • Technology as existing for PoC for phone call where you could turn the fight or a game on
    • Fav movie: Godfather 2, Witness — Fav person: Fidel Castro when Peter was doing a show on diving
      • Unbelievably interesting (Castro)
    • Reading: Sapiens (rec for Undoing Project), Thinking Fast & Slow
  • Amy Abernethy (@DrAbernethyFDA), Principal Commissioner of FDA, Vijay Pande, GP on Bio Fund at a16z (a16z Podcast 1/14/20)
    • Food, Drugs, and Tech – 100 Years of Public Health
    • 113 years ago formed out of 100 laws – hygiene issues as science-based agency
      • Safe and effective medical products to be used with your patients
    • Have to come up with flexible mechanisms to avoid and take risks when appropriate
      • Risk-based scientific decision-making, review and expectation of certain risk in products
      • Hepatic failure, may take a person’s life, urgency of problem with number of people of impact, public perception/expectation
      • De-risk: try to ensure pre-conditions are met, toxicity, consistent expectations around clinical effectiveness
    • How does FDA (mentions possible show for crises a la CSI: FDA) deal and think of crises?
      • Medical products could have any crises issues (animals, vapes, food, drugs, biologics, devices, cosmetics)
        • Distribution of potential crises are very real – opioid crisis as slowly creeping up – as information accumulates, problem ID
      • Agency – action plan for several parts on what FDA responsible for
        • What can they do to reduce problem? Reduce patient tablets accessible to, for instance.
          • Can increase methods for access for patient-informed labeling.
        • New treatments for pain and solving problem otherwise
    • 20% of international GDP regulation under FDA and 15% of food imported so needs to be safely labeled, available in country
      • Investigate trucks across border that aren’t available over borders
      • PREDICT program – 10 years old rules engine where they are most likely to have unsafe food
    • Drug shortages – have intervened ahead of 160 drugs for shortages there along with the opposite – what happens if there is one
      • Food-borne illnesses to avert problems and they have these discussions in the morning
    • Kits off Amazon for CRISPR – dog glow in the dark, for instance
      • CAR-T as T-cells to re-engineer to supercharge and put back into patient
    • Improving software products that help the world of controls
      • How does FDA think about data privacy and ownership?
        • Practically, proprietary information and confidential. Drug surveillance that might be more publicly available.
      • In CIO role, she wants a Chief Privacy Role – when brought up, data even in HIPAA may be re-identifiable
    • Platform trials – enabling features within 21st century cures
    • Some company/investigators not wanting to subject only product into clinical evidence framework to figure out – especially only shot on goal
      • Taking a while to determine this
      • Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 – contemplation of new payment delivery models, Institute of Medicine research for digital infra in 2007
      • 2008 – GFCrisis for stimulus bill to get the High Tech Act for full-scale distribution of Elec Health Records in 2009
      • Nov 2016 – 21st Century Cures got pulled from shelf as they tried to figure out which was bipartisan opinions
    • Food – FDA part, genetic engineer and synthetic biology – talking with USDA to draw the lines here
      • With new innovations, do we need to change regulatory paradigm?
      • How do we ensure consumers know what’s going on? Labels / consistent language (ex: almond milk)
    • Smarter Food Safety – possibility for each food to have a full supply chain that we can check on (whether app-enabled, blockchain)
    • For future of FDA – far more processes automated using the glut of more data
  • Seth Walder (@sethwalder), ESPN Sports Analytics Writer; Alexandra Mandrycky, Dir of Hockey Admin for Seattle (Wharton Moneyball, 1/15/20)
    • Plus minus for receivers, how the NFL will do statistics
      • Different than hockey +/- but far more team-involved
    • Talking an Analytics Coverage for the CFP Championship – what is advantageous, expected, etc
      • Good sports information – bettors can make it as they will – actionable or not
    • Daily Wager show – betting and sports and new statistics
      • “Sacks created”, for instance – Zendarius Smith, lead league with 20+ and we’re double-teamed the most often
    • Sherman as only targeted 14%, very low for outside corner (one side only – right side)
    • Quantitative Analyst, Danny Chu for second person on the hockey side
  • Cynthia Medina, Founder & CEO of WAGER (Women at Work, WhartonXM)
    • Pay equity discussion – safe space for transparent talks
    • 15 years as exec recruiter, talent consultant, leadership coach and technical recruiting
      • International relations and policy expert for DoHS, Treasury, JPM
      • Served in Peace Corps as well, and founded Cheeky Monkey (women who don’t want to network)
    • Thinking in 3-5 year intervals for Jones C Mitchell – personal level for Cynthia, though
      • Short windows of time, managed by feel – not vision
      • She has 29 aunts/uncles (parents of 15, 14) – curiosity for her but not overall something she was chasing
      • 0 had gone to college, first in family to graduate, get a passport, live abroad
    • Lots of layaway for Kmart (waiting 6-9 months), also used to visit Puerto Rico every summer with family – layaway, also
      • Friend group established college as a norm – chose Georgetown since her uncle liked the basketball team
      • She had no sense of the power structure in the US – information and what she was learning
        • Pushes people to apply to hard universities – to be able to make change
    • After college – didn’t have a job – got an internship, needed to know she could do it without help
      • Finance area for GAP HQ, could do it (had stayed on a couch initially when she went to SF)
      • Then, decided what she wanted – went to Peace Corp and was the “chicken girl” in Nicaragua
        • Taught how to make a business with microlending loans ($100)
    • After Peace Corps – big picture idea for what’s next? Same person – senior year teacher who told her to apply for GU
      • Applies to Harvard – needed a big push – elevating yourself on your own, focus on international affairs
      • Friend at the time was in the area for 9/11 – saw / felt things on 9/11, so 9/12 she went to NY and been with her husband since
      • Felt like she’d done enough for herself, now wanted to serve again – worked for NYPD CT unit, Treasury – anti-terrorist financing
        • Latin American policy expert for the anti-terrorist work
      • She was in DC, husband in NY at the time
    • Started a family – husband had to go to SF for his job, 1 child (3-6months but turns out to be 2 years)
      • Everyone else was happy, now time to do what she wanted
      • Wanted flexibility, good at basics, people – razor-like skills on interview process (first for free, then charge)
      • Told what she was doing, advertised it, did her LinkedIn
    • Driven by wanting other people to feel content. Having lots of conversations with people who aren’t doing it correctly
      • Asking for right amount, not asking for what they should get
      • Let’s keep good people by being radically transparent – telling husband that she wished all salaries for two days were public
        • Husband, a manager, gave reasons against it (creates more work for managers) – jealousy and infrastructure
      • She BCCed 500 friends – sent email to pair people for salary conversations (1:1) in industry
        • Send LinkedIn and tell her how much everyone made – nothing happened for 12 hours
          • Men, often, would say it’s too personal / we’re good / exec-level where info would be adversely used
          • “My wife doesn’t even know how much I make”
      • Example for 2 people who are now friends of hers – exec woman, exec man – he was making $100/hr more
        • She didn’t want to know how much he was making (he offered)
        • Big data problem – once you know, you have to do something and that’s often where people will fall off
        • Creating database, sheets and sharing this – nothing to do with action / companies doing different things
    • With more data, what did she discover and finding the needs?
      • Certain industries, large pay gaps – media, marketing, certain places
        • conversation / article at Google – same levels, women > men but because they were staying longer at levels
      • Making the same in cases but women felt like they didn’t have the same respect / something they weren’t getting
        • Baggage conversations still – persistent imposter syndrome, even when paid well, still work to be done
          • Ability to self-advocate is always around – empowerment to demand space
      • Does workshops out/in companies – compensation with employees in large companies (inc. tech)
      • Example: new shift to tech company – not CEO but 2nd in command or “I’m young”
        • Often hear “well my husband makes more than enough so I don’t need to push”
        • “Money is not as important to me” – don’t see it as failing, afraid, embarrassed to say they want more, know I’m great
      • People will justify when CEOs or execs leave, company wants to bring in diversity hire and pay 60% – women go in to find
    • Have to ask what you want? If you want to be a manager but haven’t managed anyone.
      • Is there an ability or opportunity for you where you want to be?
      • If you don’t know what you want – someone will put you where they need you.
        • Haven’t made a decision. If it matters for $125k to do these 4 things, need to make actions to get there.
      • She likes helping people negotiate when they don’t have to – “have to” in short timeframe – next job is when you get promoted
      • Networking as you build relationships before you need them – started Cheeky Monkey because of motivation and clients
  • Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor at London Business School, chairman at Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge (Meb Faber #100, 3/19/18)
    • Author of Triumph of the Optimists – producing the indexes, small cap 100 in London
    • 10 countries, a century of data, including the UK for returns
      • Found lots of researchers had general interest in more financial returns historically and added them to the book #2 (2000 years Millennium Book #2)
      • Optimists were those that invested in common shares over bonds/T-bills in companies, which is why they named it thus
    • Found out that about 80% of industries that existed at start of century disappeared, and 2/3 of those that exist today didn’t exist then
    • Bond market in 1900 existed of some bonds with short maturity like 6-8 years, or in London, had perpetual bonds
      • Composition of mutual fund then vs now – always changing, industries decline and come up
      • Very few survive over the long term – perfectly viable investment strategy as changing
    • Countries that were utterly important – assets survived but ownership changed completely (1917 – Russia and 1940s – China)
      • Making the World Index, history for each country, assets going to zero and Index as the same
    • Idea that economic growth, GDP growth and stock market returns – discovered a negative relationship between them
    • Thinking about valuations – market caps (Japan in 1980s as biggest, US as 50% now)
      • Market cap-weighting as only consistent one
      • Interest rates in 21st century have been way down, real interest rates TIPS / inflation-linked bond of 4%
        • Average now is negative .5 %, promising $1 now, < $1 back later. Gordon model – value of a financial security = D / (r – g)
      • Focus is on real interest rates, nominal is adjusted by inflations in each country (which can be different)
        • Real interest rates were lower in 1970s (minus 10% when inflation was 25%+ and yields were 10-15%)
        • Negative real interest rates are about 1/3 of their 2000+ country years (118+ years, 20+ countries)
          • What’s different/rare now – low real interest rates with low inflation and low nominal interest rates
    • Want to bring currency back – most is driven by relative inflation compared to the US – long term it protects you, short term, hurts
    • Tilting away from market cap-weighting, seeing other factors that may or may not make sense
      • Factors measure exposure to attributes of companies (relative size, growth, otherwise)
      • Some factors have a reward – growth companies do well (no premium), value companies instead that show reward
        • Rewards for exposure to particular factors (in hindsight, clear) may not sustain into the future
        • Smart beta, Five Factor model, liquid common stock vs illiquid maybe (mutual fund wanting liquidity may take lower return)
    • For his book’s update, added a new chapter for Global Investment Returns Yearbook
      • Looking at durable, tangible assets – real estate is smaller (domestic aggregate real estate is smaller)
        • Expected return on housing – between financial return for long-term bonds and equities
          • Expected volatility is also in between those
    • His grandmother had a wine shop, he’s done studies on investment returns for 1900 on, postage stamps, wine, etc
      • Best wine as Claret, First Growth Bordeaux, Premier Cru
    • Best investment – his education, PhD at LBS and then Cambridge

Listening and Encouraging (Notes from December 16 to Dec 22, 2019) May 21, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, DFS, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Hiring, Leadership, NFL, NLP, RPA, social, sports, Strategy, Uncategorized.
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Sometimes it doesn’t work. Asking the right questions to people in conversations to get a sense of what they’re truly passionate about gives me hope for those that may eventually try something different, new. However, unless I followed up repeatedly, most people let their passion slowly pass, or just remain in thought.

This is a big part of how I learn, engage and stay passionate for the things I’m curious about. Other than being scared of stagnation, hearing people come up with ideas, test them, build and hopefully succeed repeatedly gives me an energy to try to convince others to do the same. I understand the difference between being told of something that has been mulling around in someone’s head or even light discussion among friends compared to prototyping or validating with potential customers or asking people in the field if something’s viable.

A few examples of ideas people have told me they wanted to start and hadn’t (yet some that I believe have done well, just have room in the market) include an HR in Tech stories podcast, traveling medicine / tourism aggregator, and a d2c ecommerce diamond shop (which I’ll go into more detail), more social podcast sharing among friends, and still a market-taking happy hour app (yes, I had to insert my own – I’m leaning toward Glide.app through Google Sheets).

For diamond shop – this was by someone who graduated with entrepreneurship degree, had a validation for the idea and then was told by others it wasn’t worth doing because it’d be high cost. Granted, that was a few years ago, but it would’ve been hackable then. It’s certainly easier now with ecommerce shops via Facebook/Etsy/Shopify and other support, not to mention the audience you’d be in front of. The premise is that a diamond historically took the role of what a pearl represented because of the hardness – you could pass this on as an heirloom to further generations, and you know it won’t be breaking. It’s yours. There’s a legitimate attachment there that defines a core part of the worth/value. For the idea – it’s increasingly cheaper to 3D print a model you can build/customize on CAD (or related tools). This would be printed in plastic that can be melted to be replaced by silver – these rings would be sent to customers that are ordering (possibly with a small down payment / shipping covered, ie $5-20). It’s a model of what the ring would look like, just without the diamond part – but as far as sizing/size/bulk and the other key parts of the ring, customers can try them on and feel it. There’s an emotional attachment here that should occur. If they’re loving it, or have requests for changes, they can do that. Possibly a back and forth could take place, but once it’s settled, the wax/plastic mold can be printed as they would normally do a custom ring and use the materials that have been requested. We’ve removed the in-shop aspect and made it personal, simply by removing much of the fixed costs and labor costs that would go in to this. She was an expert in jewelry and had years of experience. Someone just told her no. 3D printing is now a hobby and can be done there. Many jewelers have other shops do the molding. I’ve been thinking of helping her start by just simply creating a mockup of the site. Can certainly figure out the rest.

Anyhow, let’s see the notes.

Week of December 16, 2019

  • Tyler Willis (@tylerwillis), angel investor (20min VC 2/16/16)
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    • Raised with seed companies at Index Ventures, Founders Fund, Khosla Ventures
    • Port co’s include Lyft, Patreon, Change.org
    • First co that he was on founding team on was acquired by Oracle, then had a friend raising a seed round for concept in CV
      • Preproduct, premarket where he did a small investment (decided it was bad to keep all eggs in one basket)
      • Decided to invest in Patreon, Loungebuddy (Airport lounges) and ShopApp inside of Shopify
    • Rocketship – valuation doesn’t play a role but ID opps for big (10x path, seed > 10k)
    • Customer acq and growth as a lightweight process to get a core part of the company
      • Optimizing for experiments – 1 week to test compared to 8 week deployment
    • Founder type – uniquely insightful to the place they’re in
      • Bias for people when he can sit down and get a high-octane thinking / smarts – hard to hang out to the rocketship
      • False dichotomy of domain expertise – could have learned wrong lessons or may not know anything in enterprise, for instance
    • East of Eden, Innovator’s Dilemma as great books
    • Favorite investors – Naval, Sam Altman, Gus Tai at Trinity Ventures
    • Favorite app – Omni (stuff storage), Delectable (learning about wine)
  • Ash Fontana (@ashfontana)- GP Zetta, Leo Pelovets – GP Susa Ventures (Venture Stories 12/17/19)
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    • Getting pricing power – need to find balance between incentivizing founders and price, but not a big deal
      • If they get 80% of company, 20% for founders – may not keep them looking ahead
    • Company and VC differences – companies have different roles but VC has very similar, solitary roles
    • On non-investing side, COO or Head of Ops to run operations but not particularly CEO or investing side needed
    • Working with best founders, LPs aren’t as important (but they are the primary VC customers)
      • None matters unless you have results for LPs and providing value – founders need the platform or help
    • If you were an LP, what would you want to be in: YC, First Round or Benchmark?
      • YC for Ash – lots of opportunity for capital deployment at many different levels
      • Benchmark for Leo – very large differentiated returns, ~30x according to Leo (YC may be 5x-7x possibly)
        • More variance because of smaller portfolios in Benchmark
      • YC may be beatable but it would be in losing their way as a general accelerator
        • Ash brought up operational risk for LPs – more points of failure because of all the touchpoints
    • AngelList as trading to be profitable and dynamic system for new things
    • LinkedIn as insurmountable lead in enterprise/business space of social network (as opposed to consumers)
      • Hard to disrupt with multiple verticals
    • Requests for startups: data generation/building data (synthetically) – ex w/ params
      • 10k examples of chairs that are brown that have 4 legs, in low light, at this angle
      • Weather climate, also
      • AutoML – making it easy for non-specialist engineers to experiment with ML
    • Leo Requests: ISA with bundling with coaching, training, VISAs – realigning incentives
  • Ben Tossell, founder Makerpad, Sahil Lavingia (@shl), founder GumRoad (Indie Hackers 11/11/19)
    5db04ceea0aa2b500db953c9_makerpad-sharing-image

    • No-code vs code – building a solution to a problem without being technical
    • First web-sites like Dreamweaver and tables for no-code – like WYSIWYG
      • Halfway things like WordPress where you can customize or use framework
      • Building a newsletter, can use Substack, for instance – Marc Andreesen
    • Sahil’s opinion that we’re unlikely to see a billion dollar start-up without a code base
      • But likely to see many creatives build on their own, have the options
    • Choice of no-code compared to code – using Circle as their integration testing methods
    • Nontechnical founders that had cofounders for developers or finding for cheap
    • Ben as bringing up Lambda School (Airtable, Slack, Zoom, Notion) and Makerpad member who was just starting to say it’s breaking
      • $150mn in Series A to get to worry about things breaking first
      • “What’s my Airbnb version look like?” but should focus on the first $10, 100 before there
      • gumroad-logo-retina
    • GumRoad as being built in a weekend – not competent enough for him to do no-code
      • Ben argued it was easy to do in no-code but they’re each discussing the same thing from different experiences
    • Queries on data for code – tools like Clay/Retool where you can work together – can run queries easily
      • No-coder does query and can recognize it to manipulate
    • Powerful for on-code is git and version controls – clear log of security, feedback, quality of code
      • Apply it to other things – pull requests/merge (conflicts)/conflicts in document setting on Notion, for instance
      • 100+ tutorials in MakerPad now – what’s interesting or grab attention
    • No-code as Patreon/Cameo/Airbnb/Uber where the overhead for coding sucks so much value from (Patreon at $30-40mln burn)
      • Creator would be interesting with price-motivating factors because you could have a more affordable option
      • “What’s the point of trying if I can’t even get to the ceiling?”
      • Meetup clone – need the “this is how you build it” – go look at the tutorials
    • Not enough answers for “Where can it go?” because they haven’t seen enough
  • Niccolo De Masi (@niccolodemasi), CEO and Chairman at Glu Mobile (20min VC 2/18/16)
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    • Kendall and Kylie game (#1 at app store at time), Kim K game, Deer Hunter and others
    • Was CEO at Hands on Mobile as well as CEO at Monstermob Group Plc
    • No money to be made in games in 2003 because they were for feature films, polyphonic, true tracks and he ran a public co before selling in 2007
      • Raised money to get bid for Glu from Hands on Mobile but got a call from Egahn Zander to transition to paid from f2p as CEO
      • Original IP value with games specifically for mobile on hardware
    • How will you make money in late-stage startup for future? Next year or two vs past.
      • Forward looking and professional managers – no founders anymore. Built from 350-850 people.
    • Moore’s Law as quite predictable but believes there are different models, utilities, and price models
      • Last gen console power in pockets now
    • Barometer of quarterly calls driving placements and interim 6 week calls for how they’re doing
      • If transparent in bad times, you may have quick punishment vs window-dressing
      • Rewarded more quickly in the upside, as well – private markets vs public markets
    • New startups as worth more than incumbents – bay as more regular here
      • Well ahead in private markets compared to public markets (his counter – at least they have earnings)
    • No BD or CorpDev – scour market and wait for inbounds of compellingly priced assets (often distressed), significant private markets
      • When Glu is $6-7, they can pick up companies easily but not so much at $2-4
      • Savings to be had for core customers when they have scale within Glu (mentioned PlayFirst)
      • “retirement community for young people” – startups subsidized, food, clothing and sharing app
    • By 2020 – more discipline in different sectors potentially – overvalued will have to come in line
      • King that was acquired by Activision Blizzard – consolidation forced by VC funding and people flow
    • Better to be #1 in smaller market than #10 in a larger one – be great w/ you’re good at
  • Tim Draper (@timdraper), founding partner at Draper Associates and DFJ (20min VC 2/22/16)
    logo-color

    • Original suggestion for viral marketing in web-based email to geometrically spread an Internet product to its market
      • Standard marketing technique now
    • EE at Stanford before going to Apollo Computer as assistant to President before HBS
      • Came out and wanted to be a VC (grandpa/father both were VCs and didn’t want to do it) – wanted to be a consultant / cheerleader
      • Helped him having an entrepreneurial base but some can certainly do it if it’s your goal
    • Borrowed money from gov to get started – knocked on doors with software on them
      • Most VCs needed others to help fund a company so they worked together – moreso now for angels, but not necessarily VC because of money
      • VC has gone global and has enjoyed that expansion – affecting the whole industry
    • His son’s accelerator, Boost, focusing so they can accelerate any business – he enjoys investing in 2-3 people with a good mission
      • Get people set up in the right way – medical, eshares, network accounting, and other operational methods
    • Favorite pitch – Nicholas Zenstrom at Skyper – most smooth, effective way and he’d agreed before calling and changing business model
      • Enthusiastic, quiet confidence for the enormous successes – Robin Lee (Baidu), Hotmail’s founder, Martin Everhart (Tesla)
    • Draper Uni of Heroes (entrepreneurs/founders) creating school during crash for better people
      • Give these people the confidence + tools while ridding them of shielding
      • DraperUniversity and StartupU – great marketing for school
    • Bitcoin interesting for a year ahead of the time, and then post-Mt Gox hack it went down only 20% so he jumped in
      • Micropayments, fees in journalism and podcasting as well as ending credits and cross-country
    • Enjoys hearing Andreesen, Moritz, McClure at 500 Startups, Plug-n-Play as first incubator, Ron Conway
    • Reflects on The Startup Game (his father’s) and Rothschild’s Bionomics and concept of evolution of econ and bio
    • Recent investment Laurel & Wolfe (interior decorating as best furniture for crowdsourcing) – closed update Dec ’19
    • Also invested in Favor, marketplace food delivery – acquired by HE Butt Grocery
  • Brandon Deer (@bdeer26), VP of Ops & Strategy at UIPath (20min VC 12/20/19)
    og-image-orange

    • Using RPA combined with business processes for automation
    • Using Gary Kasparov’s loss to IBM in chess before saying it’s no longer a chess or human – combination where average + average is optimum
    • Having growth and breaking things
  • Wharton Moneyball, Ken Pomeroy and Brian Burke (@bburkeespn) (Wharton XM)
    • Discussing the biggest predictors, NCAA basketball or in football
    • Pomeroy and how he’s adjusted his football predictions

When Innovating Away Staleness (Notes from Nov 18 – Nov 24, 2019) February 25, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Blockchain, Digital, finance, Founders, global, medicine, Politics, Strategy, training, Uncategorized.
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Entrenched. The longtime incumbents. When industry becomes too single-minded, others may start to notice. Each of these individuals from the podcast episodes are in very different industries – media/news, investing/venture, monetary policy system, and regulatory updating of provider-side healthcare. All very large, important systems that beget those that have lived the longest.

Each of the guests, however, saw opportunities in how stale an industry had/has become and attempted to take advantage. Whether that’s building something on their own directly (Jon Steinberg with Cheddar News Network) or indirectly (Gil Penchina with Flights.vc), they have a penchant for seeing innovation through. I loved hearing a few of them mention that it’s nuts to have the incumbents stagnate over some of the most advanced couple of decades we’ve ever seen.

I hope you enjoy the notes for how they structured the framework for the innovation, what opportunities they tried or came to realize, and which crazy people do you back.

  • Jon Steinberg (@jonsteinberg), COO of Cheddar News Network (Launch Pad, Wharton XM)
    cheddar-logo-16x9-1

    • Large appetite for live news and sports, very few people had done any in 20-30 years
    • Younger, faster, better as a business network
      • Younger, diverse anchors & audience in their 20s, 30s, 40s vs 60s and older
    • First round raised was $3mln, no big iron of typical broadcaster – different look and feel, same structural format for guest formats
    • Former president of Buzzfeed (2010-2014), DailyMail after – CNBC and live production as the best production
    • Lightspeed Capital friend who wanted to give him a first check – being part of a startup management team that’s successful to go from there
      • His first success was with Buzzfeed – played a role with many others, but combined his luck and effort to get the check
      • Gave up 20% for the $3mil
    • Showed up at the WeWork with Peter Gornstein, first partner and Chief Content Officer – looked at each other and “What now?”
      • Bought computers, then what now? Looked for vendors for equipment and build set.
      • Shot a 3min sizzle reel – shot sample video packages.
      • Next, go live from 9-10am one hour a day, basically – then how to ramp it up to 3 hours and more
    • Facebook Live launched, then they enabled the API so they could connect professional network equipment to it
    • Carriage fees – ESPN gets several dollars for every cable subscriber
      • Cheddar does advertisers and partnerships for their money and business
    • Purchasing Ratemyprofessor, MTVU – college market and network
    • Competitors are part of the network and counterparties still
    • Runs all news and advertising for Altice (after being bought by Viacom)
  • Gil Penchina (@gilpenchina), Founder at Flight.vc (20min VC 2/7/16)
    658877-89ccd88502db9d964a651ecba6f86d9d-medium_jpg

    • Note that this was the first day Harry had been to SF (meeting Jason Lemkin)
    • Network of AngelList syndicates that covers a wide range of sectors, SaaS, security, geographies
      • Biggest raise for syndicates to date – PayPal, LinkedIn, AngelList, Indiegogo – nominated for Angel of Year at Crunchys
    • One of early engineers at eBay (100 employees to 15000, 8 years)
      • Ran a spin-off of Wikipedia called Wikia – consumer content site, went to Fastly and angel investing
      • Wanted to work with entrepreneurs to fund small checks to other entrepreneurs as a community of helping
        • Didn’t want to do the full-time thing and thought he didn’t want to focus on terms all the time
    • At Flight, at time, they have 25 syndicate managers, 100+ volunteers to join the list – 2 groups – 1 analysis/learning companies, other sales/scouts
      • 3000 backers and they ask them to help their companies, small tasks (AngelMob) to improve or give introductions and recruiting
    • 5 years time – become a place for consumers to invest and save
      • Expansion fund and new projects – Eric working on traditional venture fund for follow-on in angel investments
    • 15 years ago, cost $10-15mln to get a website now and now it’s $10 or free for URLs (Reed’s blitz-scaling)
    • Next sector to be disrupted – education (investment seed and B into Allschool)
    • Start a syndicate – come up with thesis, going out and finding the deals (1 click to start), getting traction is hard
    • Investment ethos – people that are actually crazy
    • User of Nuzzel – best content for all of his friends
    • Similarity of Happn to “Chance Encounters” from newspaper – hoping someone sees it and reacts
  • Patrick Harker, President of Philadelphia Fed (Behind the Markets, Wharton XM)
    frbplogo1line

    • About 1/5 of jobs are at risk of being automated out – minorities and women in his district
      • Creating and destroying jobs with automation – not necessarily ridding them, but training will be important
      • Philadelphia Works – job training model for America, partnering with Comcast
        • Typically, it’s been “train and pray” – training and upskill, Comcast will reimburse out of the HR budget if successful
    • Biggest surprise – outside the lens of monetary policy – breadth of what they do is stunning
      • Largest collection of economic talent for all sorts of issues that aren’t celebrated
  • Pharma Drones, Veteran Health (16min on the News #14, 11/15/19)
    • Venkat Mocherla – market dev on bio team, GP Julie Yoo, Joel de la Garza security operating partner a16z
    • Pharmacy-patient relationship is highest volume/frequency interactions with healthcare system, owning node is good
      • Lots of startups on logistics on pharm, last mile and full-stack delivery/pharm, nontraditional care centers
      • Medicines/therapeutics work for patients, compliance is one of the biggest pains
    • MediPlus, Whatsapp your prescription and you can get delivery within 24 hours
      • Fastest regulatory arbitrage – where are opportunities – Zipline in Rwanda, for instance
      • Antiquated for brick-and-mortar to innovate, but instead mobile-first and digital distribution
      • Pills, small molecule drugs that are cheaper, chronic that can be easier
    • Last mile delivery solution is cost – one-off deliveries to patients to homes has cost issues – more expensive
      • All come to hub because of delivery efficiency
    • Apple opened up health records service to vets with iPhones – give them access to their medical information regardless of provider
      • VA is mired in healthcare challenges (came up with EHR)
      • Knock on digital health industry – great for pilots but unable to scale so far, VA and NHS populations are one-go scale
        • Not bastions of innovation but more captive population (1mil to 10-20mil)
      • Last decade, provider-side heads down for data that’s digitized but not interoperability
        • Get at the data is not a given, Apple unleashing data to consumers is great but is there utility in it? (no imaging data, limited)
      • Match data to patient, or doctors, scheduling appointments – technology for technology’s sake isn’t usually great
    • Voice commands as being sent by light – specific microphone design that’s vulnerable to the attack
      • Area of research to use frequencies of energy to affect systems – light to mimic sound, for instance
      • Advent of radio has been different research – cathode ray tubes, radio surveillance
    • Enabling hardware manufacturers to guard against this – microfilms or filtering fraud and security

Back from Vacation (Notes from Nov 11 to 17, 2019) February 11, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, cannabis, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, gym, Leadership, marketing, NFL, NLP, questions, social, Strategy, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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It had been a long while – 9? months since taking more than 1 day off extra and closer to 20 months since I’d had a week off in a row. I visited the Big Island in Hawaii and stayed primarily on the west side of the island. Gorgeous weather and awesome beaches will bring me back, hopefully shortly.

I want to write a bit further about the escape, but I also want to get these notes out, so I’ll write further in later this week – Thursday.

Enjoy these notes on some of the fascinating people of Eniac Ventures, other investors, founder of EasyPoint, ReSolve quant, research professors, former professional football player and a Nascar driver.

  • Hadley Harris (@Hadley), Founding GP at Eniac Ventures (20min VC 2/3/16)
    1-jvo_shxbd9d_mifojv7_w

    • First mobile venture, Soundcloud, Airbnb, Vungel
    • 2x entrepreneur in mobile – Vlingo (acq by Nuance for $225mln) and Thumb (acq by Wipulse)
      • Was one of first employees and execs running marketing and bd while working with product
    • Worked at Samsung and Charles Rivers Ventures
    • Studied engi & math as undergrad @ Penn, joined MSFT & Samsung
      • His 2 really good friends at Penn and him came together for Eniac in 2009
      • Mobile – next place for computing – cleantech was hot at that time, as well
    • SF was 50%, NY as 25% and the rest was elsewhere – won’t lead but will do a pro rata and be key in fundraising for next
    • Living & breathing the co – coming to right valuation, inevitable for down or flat rounds
    • 18-24 months from seed to series A or pre-seed to seed – funds becoming more institutionalized
      • Leading rounds for Eniac at $1.2 – $2mln
    • Favorite book: Freakanomics, read it in one sitting
    • Tools: gmail, relayedIQ for deal tracking, as todo list, also
    • Don Valentine – godfather of VC, great investors but great entrepreneurs and fund raisers
    • Favorite blog: Nuzzel – curation of reposts
    • Underhyped: mobile enterprise; Overhyped industry: big fan and he does work in social, but lot to weed through
    • Most recent investment: Phhhoto – knew the founders, they’d known each other for a while, great design and numbers – self-funded
  • Zach Resnick (@trumpetisawesom), founding EasyPoint (IndieHackers #130, 10/28/19)
    easypoint2

    • Iterating your way to founder-product fit, currently at 10 people, 5 full-time, $600k ytd with 15% yoy organic growth
    • Traveled, worked and lived abroad in Jerusalem before school, infected with wanderlust
      • CC churning and manufactured spending while he was learning at school in Ohio – VISA gift cards to $1k
    • Banking often makes more money on the chance that you’ll become a customer for other areas of business (mortgage, checking account, brokerage, etc)
    • Started when he was 19 – would give advice to parents/family/friends on the year before getting an hourly rate for paying customer as consultant
      • Enjoyed his help, he liked helping others – he was getting $1k/mo from hourly before going up
      • Consulting clients – he was helping optimize for business or vacation trip for the points
    • Started Land Happier to solve a problem of having everything in one place
      • Cultural norms, transportation, 6 other things for information in a fun and compelling app product (MVP on app store)
      • Wasn’t solving a problem that nobody has, but nobody would pay for – product/founder fit wasn’t there, either
    • What he wants – enjoys negotiating, strategic thinking, interesting conversations and sales moreso than product focused than customer focused
    • While working on Land, he productized his consulting – generally was helping family friends that were parents’ age
      • Amount of effort he was putting in compared to the value wasn’t the same – not high enough
      • Started to focus on small business or medium enterprise owners to put spending on the right cards and get 6 figures on spend return
      • Focused on people he knew through referrals, points optimization plans for small owners – acquisition and spending for more value
    • Early stage owners – hey, this isn’t free
    • Playing poker for relatively high stakes – teaching important principles, statistics, risk management and psychology
    • Consulting to productized consulting service – had a family friend with small business who would see a $50k in increased return on spend
      • He could do a quick analysis and understand business more, try to get a customized points optimization plan for points
      • Small business owners are leaving 1.5%, maybe 2.5% on the table – using points better for things you already want to do
    • Providing value but people didn’t know what it is or weren’t hurting – show them math for 5 figures within a year saving
      • Guarantee: if you sign up points optimization plan, if he doesn’t get you double what his fee is within first year, he gives money back and $10k
      • Making people aware of the problem was going to be a lot of work – never really got off the ground for outbound
        • Was just a way to make money, not necessarily grow it really fast – customers’ needs
    • Concierge service now (v3 EasyPoint) focusing on business and first-class international long-haul service
      • Over whatsapp and telegram groups – makes a flight request and they get back to them 24/7
      • They use miles and points that they buy from clients and then use those to book for others
      • Brokers buying all kinds of points and miles – so the arbitrage there contained issues with ToS and such
        • They’re buying transferable points like Chase / AMEX directly to frequent flier accounts
    • Working for someone else – interned with The Points Guy and when he was looking at doing it, he posted on the Facebook group
      • Cameron, now their COO, was very good – would he want to have his hires over for dinner?
      • Team of 10 now: Cameron manages concierge, growth marketing (5 on team, looking for Asia now)
        • Part-time business development consultants, full-time that have been searching
      • Revenues and loans for growth/cash flow, venture debt and possibly equity raise
    • Concierge service with product-market fit and being focused – enterprise value of $100mln probably but not billions
      • Not much needs to be tweaked for core product – fund raise would be for a different product
        • Help consumers decide on if they want to use their points or cash when booking – trying to automate this for concierge/back-end
        • Chrome extension and booking engine to use or not – this may be billion dollar opportunity
  • Andrew Butler, ReSolve’s Head of Quant Research (Gestalt University, 10/2/19)
    podcasts-thumbnail-300x300-1

    • Machine learning in markets: Silver bullet or Pandora’s box
      • Unsupervised, supervised and reinforcement learning differences in application or finance
    • Student of mathematics, physics in undergrad, keen on not memorizing a lot of stuff – enjoyed the applied side
      • Oil reservoir simulators that modeled tidal flow in Bay of Fundy, wind turbines in giant field for optimization
      • Next step was working on a sub problem of simulators – complex, computationally expensive and trying to optimize NPV in 60d oil field
        • Navigating the nonlinear, nonconvex solutions – how to make a reasonable model approximation by sampling sparse reps of simulator
    • How would simulator/emulator apply to financial world in momentum and moving averages
      • Sample distribution would fit well to out-of-sample distributions in physical world but finance wouldn’t – nonstationary
      • Caused him to use simpler models, momentum models (and transformations) and ensembles of simple factor models
        • Mean-variance optimization, error maximizing, in-sample won’t perform well out of sample
    • Wanted formal training in financial engineering, so went and got a MFE
    • Practitioner compared to theorist – after a conference talk, his construct was mean-variance was same as regression
      • Subspace reduction and regularization as identical terms for mean-variance
    • Machine Learning as 3 subspaces
      • Unsupervised learning -> clustering and dimensionality reduction
        • Targeted marketing, customer segmentation and in finance: signal processing, optimization or portfolio construction
        • Trying to uncover relationships/groupings/clusters contained within a dataset
      • If total error is dominated by bias, it’s likely overly simplistic – X as model complexity and Y as Total Error (Bias / Variance)
        • Increase complexity, bias term can decrease, increasing the variance (instability/overfitting)
  • Kelly Peeler (@kellypeeler), founder / CEO NextGenVest (20min VC FF#034, 2/5/16)
    nextgenvest_ai_serieslogo_blue

    • College Money mentor, empowering students to live full lives, history of financial crisis for motivation to start
      • Went over to Iraq, started and enabled some companies to build there in 2012
    • Went to JPMC after graduating to make some money before starting NGV for students
    • Financial organization to financial efficiency – going from Mint (organizing money for a user’s financial lives)
      • Now people need efficiency – time priority, optimizing time through automation and personalization
        • Leverage trust to improve time in the background (automation and not wanting to have to look)
    • High school trust and students have nobody they can trust for guidance – 8% trust banks and financial institutions
      • If you can build a product/service, on your way to building trust
        • Save users time, money, customized experience
    • Serving their customers with SMS and Snapchat – smarter push notifications for the right service in the right way
      • Couldn’t customize communication inside an app, so they did channels that they chose
    • NGV clubs at high schools across country – new high schools brought in, engagement and grassroots
    • First product that they brought on was for the financial literacy test that 17 states need
    • Favorite book: The Thank You Economy – best people outhustle to get more customers
    • As visual person, can focus on 1-3 things at a time – preps in the evening, large index cards
    • Adam Nash at Wealthfront – build trust with dynamics of product and the culture of company
    • Spent too much time at focusing her weaknesses but has tried to get better on that side
  • Sam Yagan (@samyagan), Starting OkCupid, Sparknotes (Wharton XM, Marketing Matters)
    • Turning down consulting job for OkCupid start – told he was crazy but wanted to take the chance
      • Free model and how do you value customers but competitors were Match and eHarmony
      • Had to get enough people on all sides of the market and then could use the data to help
    • Internet wasn’t designed to take an expert’s ideas and just use those – bigger than that
      • “You know what you want.” We’ll pull it out and figure it out.
      • Google comparison – index all the pages and figure those out to place on first page
      • Creating a platform to ask all the questions and focus on them
    • Sold Sparknotes in 11 months, took OKCupid 8 years (sold to Match, was there for a year)
      • Got the job running the company for another 3.5 years as Match CEO and created Tinder
  • Rob Gronkowski (@robgronkowski), All-Pro tight end (The Corp, 10/1/19)
    • A-Rod investing into Rob’s brother’s, Chris, company Ice Shaker
      • Were able to put money in, along with Mark Cuban, when they were on Shark Tank (all brothers)
      • Rob, upon retiring, bought Arod out of his shares in the business with Chris
    • Fitplan – Arod gave Rob a discount on the shares in Ice Shaker and he just wanted Rob to look through his company
      • Rob invested with Arod – parents were in business (gym equipment for retail/commercial for 28+ years)
    • Kraft being an owner for the team and being around the game – interested in everything
      • Rare to see owners in the locker room and talking with players – many players say they’ve never seen others
      • Brady, Kraft and Belichick as being the greatest people and diagnosing problems/plays and adjusting
    • Rob wants to travel – done a lot in the US
      • Traveling a week from that day to Israel with CEO Barry of CBDMedic there
    • Being reckless as single Gronk in the NFL (loves Camille now, though)
  • Horst Simon (@hdsimon), Chief Research Officer at LBNL (Curious Investor 9/3/19)
    4vfj55gu

    • Difference between ML and programming – validity of an email, for instance
      • Computer looks for “@” and domain name, iterative of if-then’s, marking valid or invalid
      • ML – give details of valid and invalid email addresses and have the computer figure it out with a statistical model for rules
        • Relationship between information
      • ML more as being able to see if something is a cat in a picture – hard to program that
    • Helped establish the Berkeley supercomputing center – big role all across the world now to complement theory by simulations
    • More data than ever before, 90% of digital data created in last 2 years – more in 2018 than all of human history
      • Finance can’t generate more data like autonomous cars, for instance (100 cars means 100 more data points)
      • Markets/economics are dynamic – return predictions of signal:noise approaches zero
        • Driven by economic features of markets – competitive, profit-seeking traders that act on it
      • HFT as real barriers to entry so they’re less efficient and more predictable, potentially
      • Quantitative traders don’t use raw data – they use transformations such as log of equity, cross-sectional rank of book to market ratio
        • Neural network tries to find what the best transformations are (X -> Y and explore all the connections)
    • Bonds example: predict if issuer will default or not with firm information using random forest
  • Rajiv Shah (@rajcs4), Data Scientist @ Data Robot, Adjunct Prof UChicago (DataSkeptic, 10/22/19)
    1024x528

    • Started engineering, studied philosophy and law, PhD in Comms before doing research as academic
      • Worked at State Farm and Caterpillar before going to Data Robot
    • Deep learning applications in motion data like NBA player data, motion tracking arms and legs (PoseNET, for instance)
      • Nature paper published that used deep learning to study after-shock patterns for earthquakes
    • Going through paper – simple starting point or baseline model was skipped – how much value is really added, then?
      • Looking at the 6-layer problem – approach wasn’t unexpected when using keras to add layers
      • Results generated: AUC of 0.85 compared to naïve benchmark of simple, physical model – AUC of 0.58
      • When he reproduced it, test set results were higher than training set – yellow or red flag for model
    • Group partitioning – 130 earthquakes happening right after each other, near each other and related
      • Make sure the information for an earthquake/customer doesn’t get split between training / test sites to avoid leakage
      • Basic grounding of fundamentals for setting up initial training data, partition based on time to avoid that, as well
    • As community, ensure that there are best practices and guidelines – reproducibility as a large problem lately
      • How to police boundaries for the general field – influence of institutions in publishing (for this, Harvard/Google/Nature mag researchers)
      • Good from them: the data and model for the code was freely available and he could do it on his laptop / notebooks
      • Academics from the earthquake field reached out to him with some qualms and he’s partnered with them for a blog on efforts
    • Interpretability focus trade-off with accuracy – that he’ll speak on at Open DS Conf
      • Lots of tools for explaining models with transparency now, though
  • Julia Landauer (@julialandauer), NASCAR driver (Stanford Pathfinders, Wharton XM)
    • Being on Survivor (suggested by a friend while Soph in college), racecar driver
      • Picking Stanford because of so many people that were awesome / ambitious
      • Mentioning Andrew Luck saying that this was why he chose it – people wouldn’t particularly care
    • Driving at such a young age and in Manhattan – not getting a license there until 18 on campus
    • Having to pitch and learn how to pitch at a young age for sponsorships, running a team and the cost, even at minors – $500k+
    • Some 12 female drivers and being competitive

Find Your Own Value (Notes from Nov 4 to Nov 10, 2019) January 21, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Blockchain, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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One of my favorite pieces and follows on Twitter of the last 3 months has been Tyler Tringas, founder of Earnest Capital. He came to realize that there existed a massive opportunity to fund companies that may not require or need the VC model of capital infusion – just a starter amount to do testing, easiest when people look to make sales and revenues early (maybe not the model for certain industries – marketplaces/user-dependent network effects not-withstanding).

Wild for micro and seed funding, when companies have yet to establish a true product-market fit or business model each time, typically stick with one financing style. I wonder how much innovation has been restricted by the funding style. There are advantages and disadvantages for each of those. But I’ve yet to come across more than 2-3 VC’s (out of 1000s) that do multiple and have a separation / adjustment. Makes sense from the LPs sense, but not necessarily if you want the companies to be SOMEHOW getting to a growth/scale that fits.

Less Annoying CRM Tyler King was cognizant about the capital and efficiency standpoint in business – everyone that doesn’t create value seemed expendable. Those that did will make it. I find that an important takeaway and general attitude toward either doing your own thing or being a part of a bigger company.

Hopefully each of these excite everyone enough to check the fantastic people/content out further!

  • Tyler Tringas (@tylertringas), founder of Earnest Capital (Indiehackers #131, 11/1/19)image02

    • Funding for entrepreneurs, founders, outside of the ecosystem – profitable and sustainable
      • Not competing with other options – just found a large group of bootstrappers that aligns with the goals
      • RBF doesn’t work for some
    • Green field space in the past – no competitors and could gobble the market – big risk early but if it’s worked, it can be massive
      • Launching and building became cheaper and more niche for diversifying the opportunities – limiting VC scale
      • When he sold his first business, he handed over his Stripe account, Github and Roku
    • Software companies – no retail shop meant your option was “raise money” = “raise venture capital”
      • If you were doing a bakery or something, you had a plethora of options
    • 5 years ago, he was one of the loudest critics and blogger
      • If he was bootstrapping, can you work backwards and what would you have wanted to work with
        • Is it actually a fit for you
      • No board seat, mentors for long-term
    • Raise money when you believe the money will unlock value in the business
    • Had Storemapper – where he figured out what he wanted to do next
      • Derek Sivers – Tarzan move – need the second vine before letting go of the first vine
      • Pivoted to finance to do finance models behind wind/solar farms
      • Then to micro SaaS Indiehacker before noticing people struggled to get businesses off the ground early (his $50k cc debt)
    • His basic bet is that it’s not an iron law of physics that 90% will fail
      • His fund will fail if it is an iron law – and his investors are aware of this
      • He believes the VC model is circular in that if you require growth is 11% a month for 12+ months, more likely to become unicorn
        • But if they don’t hit that, then they’re failing
    • Really interested in niche markets for a piece of software that serves a market – eg Hostify, Endcrawl post-production credits, etc
  • Tyler King (@lessannoyingcrm), cofounder of Less Annoying CRM (Indie Hackers #128, 10/21/19)
    5bac7c2c446aa-resize-710x380-1

    • Bouncing between companies after college, had joined a startup that grew after Series A, only to be acquired
      • Everyone was fired except for 5 cheapest employees (including him)
    • Marketing channels not working – word of mouth, sometimes paid ads, Google AdWords or Facebook
    • Customer support – competitive advantage as going slow, not being held to revenue standards
      • Can focus on customer service and product features
  • Maren Bannon (@maren_bannon), cofounder & Partner at Jane VC (50inTech Podcast #11)
    https3a2f2fblogs-images.forbes.com2fcarisommer2ffiles2f20182f102fjane-vc-logo-text

    • Cold-pitching VC – for cold emails, take time to research the investor and explain why they’d be interested
      • Adjacent industries, past role in competitive area, resonating project
    • Nailing the one-liner / 10 second offering in a sentence
    • Bullet points, succinct including certain things
      • Traction for user/revenue/notable customers
      • Advocates, angels with industry expertise
    • Why you? Brief description for the ideal team.
    • Include an ask – why are you contacting? Advice, seed round, etc…
    • Include right materials (letter can be brief, but more info attached or deck or 1-pager)
  • Ok Boomer, Microtransactions (16min on the News by a16z #13, 11/3/19)
    • NYT Taylor Lorenz – (perennially behind others but gets credit for the writing of it)
    • Taking on a meme, protest for what’s rigged – Gen Z affected by Boomers “hurting us”
      • How memes can turn into clothing, sales for songs, be further monetized
      • Social media generating social phenomenon and transactions and merchandise
        • V1 was ad-based, then quasi-based for sponsored ads (protein powers and such), direct transactions for monetizations
        • Can get demand and feedback for multiple types of merchandise before launching and sending out efficiently
    • In China, commerce is already in the app – button after 2nd loop you can complete purchase inside the app
      • Close the loop on-platform in China
    • Marketplace on games for platform – supporting size/scales that fraudsters can open up accounts and quickly find monetization structure
      • Build false economy and cash out quickly – advanced fraudsters for automation, maybe with virtual trades and purchases
      • If it’s $10k, they’re wrong – probably multiple millions, if not more
  • AI in B2B (a16z 10/23/19)
    189-1892846_people-ai-logo-png

    • Oleg Rogynskyy from People.AI, for sales and marketing
    • Very few users that give you private, anonymized data is much harder to make them comfortable with this data
      • How valuable is the promise you’re making to customers vs the cost to achieve it
    • For entrepreneurs: if there is human activity that generates data for how they do it that isn’t being captured, there’s a ripe opportunity
      • Shipping containers, wind farm, location of Uber driver – reliable data, aggregate and figure out what may be the next best action would be
        • Significant growth and acceleration for these actions once network effects apply
      • More sensors, edge computing, salespeople, drivers in network – more data collected and more patterns you can see
        • Smarter the graph becomes, better the predictions may be allowed to become – then, more money and lures in other network participants
      • Wind farm operators: know it will break after it breaks but someone in comes in that was there collecting data ahead of you, they are up still
        • Competitor automates process, you can go to same vendor and catch up but if you miss AI, you can’t catch up
      • Oleg mentions that he thinks AI is zero-sum and that the Fortune 500 will look very different in 10 years
    • All customers benefit from generalized data – first customers have to do a lot more than others
      • People writing contracts: only sell to me, but customers would be relics
    • When the data model changes, systems of records die – Andreesen
      • Hierarchical first, then on SQL, then cloud SQL and Salesforce
        • Next gen data model should be graph – federated shared graph model – instead of you pulling data and searching, it will push to you
        • Personalized actionable insights – pushed through the channel you’re most likely to engage with – maximum focus
      • Level of intent for the user should be known – don’t have to expose the complexity but you can be shown and execute that
    • Difference between autopilot and co-pilot
      • As human, something mundane or repetitive – automating the functions to make it more efficient use of your neurons
      • Augmenting ability to make decisions – racecar that may know what’s around the curve, making us super-productive – more human
    • Needs to be 10x on the platform vs off the platform if you’re afraid of the set-up
    • Sales & Marketers specifically
      • Shifting how they work – day-to-day: 1/3 of time on manual data entry, 1/3 on prospecting (classic problem), 1/3 on face-to-face doing selling
        • First should be gone, 2nd should be done with help on ML and AI for value-add prospecting and automate outreach
        • Face-to-face: Machines can’t replace this but may be able to help out
      • Training on the end point – best way to sell, unbundling learning management system
    • Wants to do bottoms-up but currently top-down – through standard procurement channels
      • Users will demand data-hungry approaches and solutions – apps that built AI on user data but not merging with enterprise data
        • Have easier time for value adding in these cases because you just want data to increase (single player can do single player)
    • Biggest surprises: inside sales for Oleg starting in 2006 pounding phones, went out and did a software change before downturn
      • Learned timing matters at that time.
      • Then started Symantria – sentiment analysis API in 2011, size of market matters – 20-30 companies needed it (80% of market)
      • Remembered that he was put into a conference room with COO (head of sales), cleaned Salesforce and within a month it was in ruin again
      • Couldn’t understand sales team when he took over, why it wasn’t ramping up quickly, losing deals, hiring more people but productivity was fine
        • Supposed to have data in CRM but never had it
  • Martin Mignot, Investor at Index Ventures (20min VC 2/1/16)index-ventures-768x469-1

    • Investments including Deliveroo, Blablahcar, Algolia, SwiftKey, others
    • Worked on 50 transactions like CodeAcademy, FlipBoard, Soundcloud
    • UBS Investment Bank on TMT team and co-founded beauty subscription company called Boudoir Prive (acquired by BirchBox)
      • Comes from entrepreneur family and action/doer and the creative
      • VC seemed to be between acting and thinking part of the job as he’s followed it for 10-12 years
    • Split on idea of career VC without operating experience
    • 3 ways to look and slice companies: at Index, they have thematic and geographical approach since they need to have ppl on ground in Europe
      • Stage-focused: seed / growth
      • Thematic: fintech, adtech
      • Geographical: Germany, France, London, Amsterdam and building the network there with angels, seed funds
    • 6 hour drive test or drunk test with founders – no formal founder test to determine invest-ability
      • Are they able to attract and hire the people they need
      • Trying to decide if the risk is worth reward – not beholding themselves to a valuation cap if they believe
    • Favorite book: I have America Surrounded by Tim Leary
    • Investor who has shaped his theses is Fred Wilson – being right, companies and sharing insight, communicating as USV and himself
  • Elaine Beak, consulting and HBS (Career Talk, Wharton XM)

    • She wasn’t too scared but whenever she had problems, the solutions would arise
      • For others, the security blanket is the scariest for most people when she tries to help them on decisions or convincing them
    • Writes her books in 2 weeks each – written and published 80+
    • Word of mouth, should have 6 months saved up, and have 50 people that you can contact for saying you’re going out on your own
    • Following own rules:
      • Billing clients the same day that you finish a project.
      • Clients may have 30 day billing window, so if you waited 2 weeks, they’ll forget or not be as appreciative.
    • Don’t discount, add to the service instead – charge more
      • Bad reputation for discounting.
    • Go for the big fish – large companies but the time to get smaller companies is the same for larger. Repeat business is there
      • Repeat business and more of a budget to continue work.
    • Learn to say no. Non-paid speaking engagements should be limited.
    • Manage your time well – make sure it pays off.
      • Find ways to automate things – invoices, payroll, accounting, responses to common questions
        • Make a standard paragraph or find an app/template once you have these
    • Project will end but not relationship – stay until the end and do a good job for the client.
    • Incorporating, LLC for sure

Wrapping Up the Year (Notes from Oct 21 – 27, 2019) January 6, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, marketing, questions, social, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Happy New Year’s, everyone! Hopefully the holidays treated everyone well. Mine were fairly quiet, filled with quite a bit of driving back and forth with family, though. Good mix and even the added bonus of getting in extended reading time, which I loved – and a good plug for the last podcast episode I had listened to in this set since Ellie Wheeler’s most recent investment at the time was Blinkist – an app summarizing nonfiction books.

Somewhat quick since the majority of the week was spent listening to Alex & Gimlet’s story continue on the StartUp podcast and how he thought about (and questioned others about starting) his podcasting company. From partnership splitting, to fundraising, to naming and branching out. Fascinating early, early stage process and how each day is a struggle of what to do. I saw someone (yes, I forget who) mentioned recently that startup founders/CEOs basically have an infinite to-do list and what makes or breaks the company is determining the order that will most benefit the development forward. Yes. And yes, it’s hard.

Recording that and releasing it was quite the project that probably helped launch the company in general as he promised to get there. Even more fun now that it’s been 5 years since the release and they’ve (check the logo) sold to Spotify. Podcasting still has a ways to go, I feel. In my opinion, audio and the video/reality experience will continue to merge as we go through the next 5-10 years. Few weeks ago, a friend helped try to hack together a form of visual note-taking app (say, pictures every 30 seconds turned to searchable text) – results weren’t great but next iteration would be possible with Snaptacles? Keep you posted. Having to organize everything using Notes / OneNote / Evernote / Notion / Docs / Apple Memo and bookmarks in your favorite browser – chaotic as hell. Shouldn’t be this hard to share relevant and recent readings/listenings. I bring it up because Alex in StartUp podcast discussed in that first episode the vision of how information can be shared. Those that learn and share can greatly accelerate action/excitement and get the flywheel moving if there was a tool (maybe 2) to facilitate this. I’m hopeful for this future – 5G and improvements there could enable the computing power for constant snippets?

The future holds the answers. Happy New Year!

  • Gimlet 2: Is Podcasting the Future or the Past? (StartUp Podcast 9/5/14)
    gimlet-and-spotify

    • Working on his pitching before headed back to California to pitch Chris’ partner
    • Matt had worked at CAA before joining Chris, he’d ran an in-house venture fund to team up with Hollywood talent, get other investors
      • Website FunnyOrDie with Ferrell and McKay to launch it
    • Launching 3 new shows, 100k per episodes
      • Asks “Are you in or out?” – but he says that he wants to spend more time
      • Normally, would give him 3 reasons why he wasn’t interested, but he’s interested in the pedigree to launch into the space
        • Access to build brands and content (really, really hard) – is this entrepreneur the best at what they’re going to build?
      • Question about audience numbers – thinks he can build a larger audience (Landlord was 80mln for FunnyOrDie), even though podcasts aren’t
      • Not a lot of innovation here – is this really the best platform (podcasting) for the shows? App-based ecosystem instead?
        • Aggregator site or podcast – can’t tweet out a moment (clip), can’t figure out which friends are/have listened (can’t)
        • pictures on phone while on podcast, celebrities what they’re listening to – Instagram of audio
    • Audio shows or vs podcasting – name sucks, new way – wife mentions pitching tech guys and getting feedback on tech platform for bigger
      • Scale for him is the largest he can’t envision, and that all seems to be small for Chris and Matt
  • Crypto Regulations, ATM fees (a16z 16 Minutes on the News #12, 10/20/19)
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    • Managing Partner, Scott Cooper, author of Secrets of Sand Hill Road
    • ICOs as regulation, thing may not even exist – SEC fined the company with the ICO – if building blockchain and raise money from public before
      • Can’t sell security unless registered with SEC
      • Howie – did someone give you money? Did someone expect a profit/return? Did the profit come from the efforts of others?
    • When we invest in start-up companies, exemption by accredited investors or register by SEC because no exemption
    • Bill Hineman at SEC talked about mutability for security turning into non-security
      • ERC-20 token was frozen/suspended for Block 1 – eventually received EOS tokens, that persists today
      • Settlement with SEC didn’t impact EOS tokens to trade on the market – in theory, EOS wasn’t a security at the time – efforts for others
    • First time Cooper had seen settlement that SEC distinguished a security in the initial part ERC before turning not a security by EOS
      • No bright-line for what the line is that draws centralization/decentralization
    • ATM fees being the highest they’ve ever been $4.95 – growth of median income up 20% since 1995, healthcare 40%, education 80%, housing 50%
      • Overdraft fees as highest as well – $35bn lost there
      • Legacy banks as tons of fixed costs and infrastructure and people vs startups that can go to market and get the building blocks necessary
        • Anti-money laundering and KYC attention, also
  • Gimlet 3: How to Divide an Imaginary Pie (StartUp Podcast 9/17/14)
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    • Needing a business partner, potentially – wife helping him get to that point
    • Micah Rosenbloom pitching – thing 1 – liked the idea, thing 2 – bet on 2 or 3 people, Finding a business partner – MBA grads, founder dating type and website
      • Settled on his partner Matt Leber, MIT Sloan grad, BCG consultant due for a soon promotion – sneaked around, knew the business side
    • Agreeing on the clarity of the business partnership – going through legal/lawyers to agree on principle for the split of equity
      • People who he talked to mentioned 90-10 split, no more than 15%
      • Matt had mentioned 47% initially, gave an input to ask what he thought was important
        • Matt asks “What is important to you?” – some examples: important to be in charge, be CEO, his company, own 80%+
      • He’s worried about being a sucker, a rube, he got ripped off – though he thought 47% was too high “He’s key to success of company”
        • Wants that to be reflected in the cap table – “Matt is not”, Matt can’t imagine doing it for 10% – he’d treat it as a job
        • Didn’t come to terms with each other, had to go back to their wives
        • Extremely surprised at the number, adding – maybe he was seen as a consultant initially and it persisted – maybe anchored
        • Positional bargaining vs average of 15 and 45%
      • Everyone could come up with their answer – as long as it was fair to each
        • Thought the split should be 60/40 – founder’s agreement at the restaurant – needed to make it worth something, together
  • Gimlet 4: Startups are a Risky Business (StartUp Podcast 9/23/14)
    • Discussing podcast with Matt Mazio – should be able to message back and forth, create new connections / friends, microtransactions, crowdfunding
    • Going back to Micah for a second meeting – brought Alex Davidoff
      • Questioned the number of people (millions vs tens or hundreds – 40mln current was the answer)
      • Hard to be a hotel and Kayak – hard for whatever you do – content vs tech
      • Questioning the CAC and LTV for customers – wanted more than theories but answers for acquisition model
        • Venture scale is $100mln+ scale, opportunity
        • Costs X to produce a show, Y% are hits, Z amount of value to listeners, listeners pay and blended AC is W
        • How to scale because he knows what it looks like – wanted to de-risk the investment – credible theory of venture size
    • Micah had been encouraging and excited to give him intros to other venture capitalists
    • Chicago Board of Trade from school, some colleagues started an investment firm – Mike
      • Podcast newbies – never – bonded over one venture because he’d listened to Howard Stern – great interviewer / new content
      • Definitely different than what they’d focused on
    • Investing partners on one – focused on numbers, other on user growth, different reasons
      • Former financial guy who’d explained to him a toxic asset – $50k was a fan, solid enough business
      • Media innovation fund – perhaps a revenue model for other journalism forms
      • Andrew Mason, Founder/CEO of Groupon ($100mln from there) – started a new company called Detour – guided audio tours
        • Needed content for the tours but had the tech side to build it – had his own project (podcast network)
        • Agreed to invest $100k – exploitative, can learn things, investment in himself to keep close, good at what he does, ppl
        • Hadn’t thought about monetary reason, higher likelihood for profitable business but lower likelihood for 100x
          • If not successful, because he didn’t want it enough – “Have a kid now, it’s an insane amount of work”
    • Went to bank together and had $385k in the checking account – wanted $1.5mln for runway
      • Planning to still launch 3 shows, office space, 18 months runway
    • The name: APC – no, unilaterally – including wife and partner
  • Gimlet 5: How to Name Your Company (StartUp Podcast 10/13/14)
    • Transparency and the name: APC – no, including wife and partner
    • Tried a ton of different options before going to Lexicon naming help
      • We can’t pay but we’ll have it on the air for the podcast
    • Major Gimlet, gimlet eye, gimlet drinks – Matt bought the domain
  • Matt Charney (@mattcharney), Editor at RecruitingDaily (In the Workplace, Wharton XM)
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    • Went over digital numbers for the workplace – IoT as different than Digital Transformation
      • Digital transformation is a $60bn annual cost to consultants – max cash, short on ROIC
    • Mentioning that the top ATS in hiring is still top now – since 1996
  • Gimlet 6: How to Value Your Startup (StartUp Podcast 10/25/14)
    • Valuing your company as a starter for valuation cap, how much of the company
    • Valuation cap set at $10mn with his lawyer – completely arbitrary
      • AngelList had average valuations for a startup in NY at the time between $3-5mn, other media companies had been $10mn
    • Talking to Matt Mazio to check in – had a cofounder now, lots of meetings and having discussions with people
      • Price for pre-launch, content and no real tech – at least 2x what it was
      • Mazio in $100k with Chris Sacca, wasn’t worth arguing the price for $100k
        • $10mn cap would’ve needed a 10x to go to $100mn
  • Gimlet 7: How Listeners Become Owners (StartUp Podcast 11/8/14)
    • Fully funded after going $200k in crowdfunding, getting the Tumblr founder Marco to put in $50k and additional $150k
    • Building the sound booth studio randomly
    • JOBS Act allowing the larger pool of American people to invest in startups, talking to AlphaWorks CEO Erin (had been there 4 days in NYC)
      • AlphaWorks – actual ownership stake, investor
        • Relationship with listeners was the biggest thing for the company – $5k
      • Wire from Sacca was late because original amount went to the wrong account, business in Gardenia somewhere
        • Local police weren’t convinced that receiving someone else’s money was a crime ($33k lost)
    • Having worked for 6 months, quite early and then leaving at 6pm each night
      • Parenting strain now – can’t help even though he did pull more than his weight before
    • Consumer Federation of America – actually, sort of, trying to protect the people
      • Regular people will get hosed is what they said – is it the business of government to look out for what’s best?
  • Ellie Wheeler (@ellie), Partner at Greycroft Partners (20min VC 1/27/16)
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    • Next-gen commerce, consumer mobile, SaaS solutions and investments in BaubleBar, Flashpoint Intel, Eloquii, Plain Vanilla Games

      • Was in a similar position at Lowercase Capital with Chris Sacca
    • No “if you do this, you’ll get into venture” – hers was pre-med, medical school and dropped out before end of first semester
      • Started at Summit Partner – Growth Capital P/E in Boston w/o Excel skills
      • Wanted to understand more in context so she went to Cisco, moved to SF – C/D, M&A, Strategy on Enterprise Software
        • webEx and video conferencing, unified comms
      • Crash happened – $30bn on balance sheet and seeing everything for stunting M&A and tech
    • Business school after Cisco
    • Mobile commerce as off by consultants/analysts by orders of magnitude – conversion rates were still very low
      • Email to mobile as conversion driver – d2c, into funnel and into terrible experience
      • Web or app experiences
    • Wearables – more integrated, into the fabric, athletic gear
    • The Power of One as favorite book, Alan Patricof as the founder of Greycroft
      • Outlook app, Twitter (as blog), Todo list (Evernote, but she uses note cards)
    • Recent investment is Blinkist, mobile summary for key nonfiction books

Love Hearing Some Aspirations (Notes from Oct 14 – Oct 20, 2019) December 19, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, NLP, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Happy holidays, everyone! Hopefully you’re staying warm/dry – whether that’s inside or just generally in a better location. I’ll say I already wish that I purchased into that ski cabin for the holiday since we’ve had a bunch of rain over the last few weeks in the bay area and now fresh powder in the Sierras. But alas, I did not. Next time, next time.

I’m going to keep this brief, but primarily because I have fallen behind in writing and it pains me weekly. Habits break and that may need to be bumped up in the new year – try out substack or something similar. But, I think I’m finally going to launch something that I’ve been meaning to build. CV / Image recognition sourcing into a database to keep track of something that plays a prominent role for many. We’ll see if I can get the prototype usable and I’ll update here.

Aspirations – I love talking and listening to people who have big dreams. I think there are many who hold themselves back for all kinds of reasons. If I catch wind or hear it, I will push you to start – something, anything – for your sake. It’s rewarding to have to dive in and try it out. Maybe it falls off after 6 months. Maybe you run out of money that you allotted to the side. Maybe, you succeed. Or learn  enough to accidentally fail upwards into a better / concrete idea. I hope for it all when people have these ideas. It’s inspiring – helps me go through my own models for how I interpret my world if I have to wrap my head around how friends/colleagues/Tweeps view their own. And how things can become better. Ultimately, that’s what we’re trying to do with many ideas. Is it a cool new thing? Is it something you wish you had? Is it an observation that you want to test? Build. You won’t regret it if you don’t in the grand scheme, but if it’s a big enough itch, it’s worth the learning experience in a world where not enough of us do (but it’s not for a lack of time).

Hope you enjoy the notes.

  • Patrick / Raamayan, Cofounder of Unify (Wharton XM)
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    • Global meditation, achieving state of flow
      • Could be gym, yoga, prayer, running
    • If you have an hour, you have 15 minutes
  • Brianne Kimmel (@briannekimmel), Worklife Ventures (20min VC 10/14/19)
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    • Backed by Andreesen, Chris Dixon, Zoom’s Eric Yuan, and friends Alexis Ohanian, Garry Tan, Matt Mazzeo
    • Teaching General Assembly while operating in performance/growth marketing role at Expedia before Head of Social Media
      • Go-to marketing bootcamp (SaaS school now)
      • SaaS school taught my brand name heads at SaaS top places
    • Started with $25-50k angel checks in Webflow, Voiceflow, Airgarage and built a track record
      • Wanted to build a SaaS-fund to focus on go-to-market from bottoms-up
      • Enjoys building and structuring companies to get into the Venture-sized outcomes
      • Having a fund that’s open enough to maybe do private equity after stuck between $3-5mn ARR
    • Optionality for early stage, inflection points, maybe getting growth PM to scale into CEO
      • $150k checks incrementally grown from $25k
    • Proliferation of funds and capital – investing from own, micro-VC and angels platforms
      • Scouting for VC fund – operators at hot tech company
      • AngelList and Carta as platforms for own angel funds or boutique arrangements (flexibility with checks, numbers, still operate)
    • Celebrities/athletes using investments in startups to match their brand or expand it
      • Intersection of work and life – seeing Faire and Shopify give access to a huge new audience
    • Angels with leverage in cap table – “perfect one” and she grooms founders for this
    • Worklife – services and programs to unlock human potential at scale
      • Hypevsaas – traditional language for b2b is dead, according to her
      • Great saas being built by operators spinning out of consumer tech (Airbnb, Coinbase, Uber)
        • Scaling too quickly where they end up building their own tools before open sourcing or monetizing
      • With self-serve SaaS companies, many APIs and workflow tools, are easy to build – what’s the competitive advantage
        • Your access to tech, building closed products (specific users in line with product vision)
      • Opposite of Hypevsaas as “Scrappy SaaS” – going away slowly, race similar to consumer product for paid marketing
        • Freemium to quickly launch/build but products too easy – race for free users and attempt to monetize later
        • Mirrors side hustle or application as experiment with a possible traction
    • Consumer-grade experiments where users pay from day one – mentioned Superhuman and Rahul’s talk
      • SaaS school discussion about video game design and hook
    • Pace as most recent investment – accessing software with lower monthly rate because they access the contracts
  • Justin Kan (@justinkan), Founder / CEO of Atrium (20min VC 6/21/19)
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    • Full-service corporate law firm for startups
    • Started in 2004 with online calendar a la Gcalendar called Keeko, got into YC
      • Failed and sold it on ebay eventually
    • Then started Justin.tv – terrible idea that mostly failed and eventually made it into a streaming site to do Twitch
      • Sold in 2014 to Amazon, started another company called Exec in 2015 – errand service
      • Became a partner at YC but realized after a few years that an investor full-time wasn’t for him
      • Forced, as a startup founder, to learn things (hadn’t been learning as an investor)
    • 2017 – remembered how painful it was learning things – thinking of ideas
      • Conversation with a partner at a law firm in the city – asked her why they didn’t use any tech themselves
      • Full-stack corporate law firm in US – high growth companies that they’re building for last 2 years
    • Had used legal services no matter what they had – big transactions pay attorneys regardless, stable market
      • Will exist in a downturn because things don’t just stop
    • Remembered that every summer at the start of his startups, he would want to quit – think of new ideas or new things
      • Once out, he’d think he didn’t want to do it again, until it brought him back
      • First 3 months – thought he was great, figured it out due to 10 years’ experience, until stress came back
        • 6 months of stressful period – figured it out that he was still fine, reputation/old job
        • Self-improvement and growth had to come from culture
    • Hard to detach yourself from company as entrepreneur
      • Has attachments and notifications to make sure that he’s being present
      • Having goals in life, company, entrepreneur – board game metaphor – friends play and being engaged
      • Put away a game – do you remember or care what happened?
    • Started seeing a therapist 7 years prior – coach for dealing and discovering about what you’re going through
      • Cathartic, in his opinion – not alone and can talk to people
      • 15 Commitments of Conscious Leadership, Steve from Reddit
        • Radical responsibility – nobody else will come to save you, nobody to blame
        • Radical curiosity – whenever a new situation comes up, you approach it with what you’re supposed to learn
    • Don’t have to suffer for doing a start-up – not saying “Don’t work hard”
      • Building up skills, expectation for suffering isn’t the case
      • Atomic Habits by James Clear for him following working out each day
    • Zone of Genius – cares and loves to focus on, delegate rest
      • At Atrium, focus on business strategy, selling, culture
      • Build the team for the rest of it
    • Much better at recognizing patterns after investing 100 companies
      • Implementing in company, business models and market dynamics
      • Bad – investor attitude (approached Atrium like this)
    • Atrium – up to 150 employees in SF now – happy and proud for the culture and growth
  • Eric Kinariwala (@ekinariwala), founder / CEO at Capsule (DealMakers 10/15/19)
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    • Rebuilding pharmacy from inside out – raised $270mn from TCV, Thrive Capital, Sound Ventures, Virgin Group, M13
    • Wharton undergrad, network from there as financial services, banking and decided to go to west coast – Stanford
      • Started at Bain Capital in Boston after graduating – worked in a hedge fund group investing
        • Retail, healthcare, tech – blending framework around business strategy, what makes it a good business
        • Judging management and the synergies – learning how to invest, as well
      • Making right judgment calls – tight feedback loops
    • For Capsule, had moved back to NY, got a headache – called doctor and had a prescription ordered
      • Pharmacy is $350bn – most frequent interaction in healthcare
      • 2nd largest category of retail – 70k stores
      • Got headache and went to go pick up his meds but couldn’t find it, then they were out of stock and it was awful
    • Hard to get advice from the pharmacy, don’t know the price until they go to pay
    • Everybody touching the pharmacy has a headache, typically
    • 3 pillars of Capsule: modern technology platform, emotionally resonant brand, pharmacy how your mom would treat you
      • Prototypical pharmacist as founder, 2nd was highly experienced technologist, 3rd woman that spent building consumer brands
    • Business model – “10x better” than current existing – technologically enabled pharmacy – app with 5 pieces of information
      • 2 hour delivery windows, know price of medication, doctors know what you’re doing
      • Why are there so many pharmacies? Put money spent on rent back into beautiful design and technology to be seamless
    • Launched in 2016, first customer in May – first challenges in early days
      • Strong word-of-mouth from friends, doctors who had learned about Capsule – telling patients and vice versa
      • Early pharmacist was well-versed in regulatory environment for anything that could’ve been broken
    • He had raised in May ’15 to get started – raised $70 million to start
      • Ideal profile / entire business model needs to be aligned with values: objectives, values, strategy and metric
      • Asking to join and leaders need to have alignment in the same way – even the board – share vision and how / why you operate
    • Team is bigger than 250 full-time, all in NYC now – encouraging people to read ahead of joining, also
      • Checklist Manifesto, On Wings of Eagles, Danny Meyer’s Setting the Table, and Who by Dan [Geoff?] Smartt
    • For the future of Capsule – most important thing in your family’s life as healthcare (although I’d argue bank or something)
      • 5x more pharmacy visits than doctor (sheesh) – wants to make it mobile-first and on the home page of phone
    • Piece of advice for his first day: be more confident earlier
  • Gimlet 1: How to Not Pitch a Billionaire (Startup Podcast 4/5/14)
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    • Pitching Chris Sacca – meeting at a hole-in-the-wall sushi place for lunch in LA
      • Deck as a crutch and did it outside the lunch – no slides
      • Most people consume audio in radio and are leaving to digital – audio dashboard, podcasts music all there
      • Wants to start company for the content for moving into the digital future
      • One question he asked: what’s the unfair advantage? Explained how to make money (ads, listeners)
        • Freemium – offer an extra for the listeners who want to pay.
        • He answered: making freemium model work – had to tighten it up
      • Chris Sacca – took 2 minutes and did the pitch
        • People willing to pay for this stuff – Planet Money where they gave $600k to buy tshirt with our logo
          • Integrated directly that we can replicate
        • $1.5mn to buy 3-4 guys for podcasts in next 12 months, can get to 300-400k net subscribers
          • Can get to breakeven on ads alone, CPMs where they are – more integration and episodes will be ultimately scale
          • 12-15 podcasts and we can do it
      • Then countered with the audio is a niche market – nonprofit and audio moving toward shorter content
    • Met him on a Planet Money story when he was going over patent system and how it was slowing innovation
    • Strategy/ideas at Google, writing seed investment check in PhotoBucket – didn’t have it, though
      • Just $50k and wrote 2 credit card checks – enjoyed the feeling so much he left Google
      • First investment was in a colleague, Evan Williams, for Twitter as a full-time angel
        • Wrote the check for $25k – was a lot of cash to him, needed it to work – wanted to help out, evangelist
        • Started buying more shares and doubling – believed in the company
    • Kickstarter, Uber, Instagram, etc… looks hard at the conviction of the success
      • Missed on DropBox (Gdrive was going to crush them), Airbnb (someone will get raped or murdered, can’t work)
    • Told him to come back, tighten the pitch and then do it for Chris’ partner Matt who was from the media world
  • Pankaj Risbood (@risbood), founder at Zendrive
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    • Discussing leveraging data and making it a platform instead of an app
      • Dealing with partners to ensure they can improve value
    • Mission Street project – 6 months driver flow before and then after shutting down
      • Reducing poor driving / improve driver safety and it was fairly obvious
    • Can deploy this in the form for insurances, as well
  • Jacqueline Courtney (@jac_courtney), Founder of Nearly Newlywed (Wharton XM)
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    • Pitching on Shark Tank to grab attention
    • Starting as seeing option in fashion tech for underserved market
    • Tough for Amazon to compete because of the marketplace factor and users are only in for 1 sale, 1 wedding
      • Taking 40% of the sale but trying to maximize the amount of cost for many
      • Realized photos that were posed / models with dresses didn’t sell as well as real wedding photos
        • Started asking customers for them this way
  • Noah Auerbahn (@noahauerbahn), co-founder and CEO of Robin Healthcare (Lindzanity 10/2/19)
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    • Robin as virtual scribe that sits on doctors desks and records video/audio from room – sits in exam room
      • Started with orthopedic physicians – 6 sub-specialties and they cover all of them so far
    • Met Gary, Howard’s partner, when Noah was 21 and starting first company – ExtraBucks (cash back coupons)
      • Came up with at dorms in USC, raised enough money to move to SD with his cofounders
      • Were cash flow positive and had Gary and Alex as advisors – realized he didn’t want to be in ecommerce forever
        • Decided to sell and exit once they questioned it – had raised around $1million, no venture
    • Believed college as what you make of it – did entrepreneurship / business in undergrad but taking it and questioning how to apply it
    • Education, energy, and health were the lists of what he thought may have the most impact – health was the biggest for him
      • He would hire MIT PhD and UCLA MD to come to his office and tutor him – “pretty affordable, like $70/hr” to teach at pace you want
      • He wanted massive optionality within healthcare – not just ecommerce, if he wanted to do pharma, biotech, find the right entry point
      • 100s of research posts, 100s of conversations, started going to conferences (where he met his cofounder)
    • Entire system – center of the system is the exam room – decisions get made there, so he wanted to build something interesting inside of that room
      • Patient, doctor, and EMR (not interested in sharing data)
        • Found out that there was a scribe in 5% of rooms and he asked why they aren’t remote or something
        • Lower burnout rates, better throughput and service, notes/quality control could have issues
        • Decided to tool in a good UX, ML additionally
    • Wanted to do something big, had to raise money eventually but “How many assumptions could he kill or the idea before saving time?”
      • First paying customer, had $40k, webcams, notes (his cofounder doing them), device streaming and did it at his mom’s vet clinic (non-HIPAA)
        • Built own tech, had some handful of paying customers – had taken some friends/family $ that missed on his first company and then real
      • Didn’t anticipate hardware but couldn’t find something that could be used for solving this
        • Security cams aren’t great because of acoustic but could stream all the time
        • Conference ones which aren’t designed to run all the time – ran own software on it, but lot of work to keep it working all the time
        • Sonos speaker guys were helpful in producing what they ended up building (optional video)
    • Device has about 2% of people where they don’t consent – video/audio and can be more in tune with the patient
    • Having offices in SD, Berkeley (his reverse commute from SF) and Austin – where most pre-med scribes are for them
      • Mentioned 30% Stanford Med graduates don’t end up as doctors – go into tech
  • Morgan Housel, co-founder of Collaborative Fund (Lindzanity, 10/9/19)
    deuobz-u8aarwgs

    • Howard’s favorite thinker/writer/storyteller and his interesting career arch – key to writing is writing
    • Effective long-form is rough but when it’s good, it’s bar-belled (10 seconds is better than longer reading)
      • Only books he got through were Shoe Dogs and Agassi’s book – Munger’s “Don’t be burdened by bad books”
    • Cramer’s “Confessions of a Street Addict” as good, as well
      • Coming from nowhere, knew how to write briefly, Howard as superfan – first modern financial professional that had personality
      • Howard feels like it’s an underachievement – Morgan said he’s not a great investor – so much trust built up that he should be running a massive firm
      • Access to people, financial celebrity
    • Fascinated by Motley Fool – when Morgan had hedge fund, had CNBC but Dave and Tom Gardner – hats on, promotional and StockTwit before
      • Went for mom and pops – tremendous marketers, but made mistakes
    • 2007 – dawn of financial disaster, studying econ at USC (his plan was p/e and ib) but finance was terrible
      • Didn’t think highly of Motley Fool – had gone through Yahoo finance boards and saw his friend, Sham Gad, at USC was writing for them
      • Thought he’d do Motley Fool shortly as contract, couple months, and was writing an article a day – (plan was initially p/e but they couldn’t bring him on)
      • For him, he was supposed to be banking industry, and writing other stuff as well – economy and macro issues (unemployment, fed reserve, budgets)
      • No explanation for decisions being rational – before, during, after no good explanations – psychology of investing
    • Psychology of investing will always be there – different layers of edge and vs technical side – can be base of pyramid
      • Smartest analyst or data miner but without greed/fear, nothing would matter (Howard moving to angel – forced to go with it, prices were his weakness)
    • Time split for Howard – 50/50 between public/priv (prices keep him up to date on news)
      • Selling at Uber at $10bn because he wasn’t allowed to sell at $1bn – he was in with David Cohen’s $4mn fund, $50k at $4mn valuation, so he had $2k
      • Sold a lot early and then sold at $40bn and that’s where it is now – public would’ve been very different
    • New banks may be what Andreesen is doing – start as VC & get larger, for next 20 years
      • Citadel starting as hedge fund from dorm and now top-tier investment bank, doing everything – exchange, conglomerate
      • Partnership that can have trading stocks, wealth management, lean beast with trust/access – 2.5% fund without GS
      • Private becoming so large because of the liquidity area there
    • Josh as being equally funny and smart, not caring about markets – gave a sponsor to Morgan and Jesse Livermore (pseudo) and Twitter explodes
      • Motley Fool for 10 years, contractor for 7 years – LA first and then Seattle, then Alexandria for 3 years – only time he’s had a desk and office
      • Wife went to grad school in Baltimore to move them out that way
      • Motley Fool as bigger than you think – P/E mistake, big tool and screwups to learn a lot about mistakes
        • Joining Collaborative Funds (Craig Shapiro splitting time between NYC and SF) was easiest decision, but leaving MF was hardest of his life
    • What really can set you apart is not writing a check anymore – everyone has a checkbook
      • What do people know about you? What do you stand for? What is your vision?
      • If he could write what they wanted to read, it would draw back some attention to what they’re doing and standing behind.
    • Went to plenty of conferences, 4-5 a year and learned to speak – had a CFA Institute where he was the interviewer
      • Did keynotes for Motley Fool, video made it to Washington Speakers Bureau and started to do that
      • Several dozen talks a year now – wasn’t the plan original (2016 as first year)
        • Doesn’t sketch out an idea, write out an outline – just knows that he enjoys some part and how to contextualize it
    • Spends majority of his time going on walks to “write” – tough for him to grind the gears
      • 95% of his investing is house, checking acct and 3 Vanguards funds – saving dollar-cost-averaging there, since he isn’t really writing checks
      • Thinking about “enough” – 8% is fine, 10% would be nice but not worth stressing (says opposite of type A)
        • Odds are low to beat market, same with running – 3 miles is enough for him, doesn’t need to do half marathon
        • Biking for 1 – 2 hours, knows the burn, won’t need to do more
      • Why Howard says Andreesen’s model likely to make a difference
        • For Howard – indexing, 90% there and 10% to try to beat
      • If it bothers you, why are you torturing yourself? If you need to scratch the itch, take a small enough.
      • Hates idea that Vanguard gets to pick the 500 companies for him, not a fan of $5mln raise if you can do on $1mln
        • Similar to Risk gm – don’t start Europe, east Aus is better
    • Indexing as Robinhood vs Vanguard – somewhere in between (not robo), but just de-selecting the companies you may not want to invest in
      • Feel better, maybe hold on more during drawdowns – incentivize riding the wave
      • Example from Morgan about mom hating Monsanto (then he pointed out she owned some – she wanted to sell)

Paralysis of Planning (Notes from Oct 7 – Oct 13, 2019) December 12, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Leadership, marketing, medicine, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Hello everyone! It’s been forever – a few weeks. That wasn’t my intention and my head’s been spinning around topics. However, nothing was clearing up idea-wise, at least enough to fit something in. As writing is an intentional habit of mine to try to memory-dump and stay organized, the slowdown has been a poor fall off from my routine. We’ll get it back.

I forget where I’d read it first, but there are some long-form bloggers who said just writing to write daily has helped them get to coherent, well-written posts about once a week. I may try a medium there and plan to write 3-4 days, even if it’s brief. Let’s see what comes of that (on initial thinking, I’d like to get 1 or 2 of those data-focused).

Last week, I attended #HustleCon in Oakland, which is focused on entrepreneurs (mostly non-technical) and the strength of pattern recognition and actions on ideas. A few of my prior posts have mentioned the flood of information available, so long as you have a plan to go through it. It’s likely why I found it funny to hear various founders with their “definitive” takes on fundraising, hiring and culture building processes. It’s possible the thing they all agreed on was just to focus on the product/customer feedback. The rest was completely in the air – some swore on fundraising and it was easy, others thought it was only necessary to scale to size they wanted later, some wanted to just get large customer traction, etc…. There’s no single track except your own past experiences. That’s the one track for ‘worked’ vs ‘doesn’t work’. Everything else has examples on both sides.

The commonality aside from product/customer-focus was in reflecting on actions – can you test an idea? Can it sell? Will there be a proper response? Is the response as you expected? Iterate from the basic idea that you had to begin with and see if you can’t improve it further. I am starting to agree that there are many ideas that fix many things we each interact with – our experience (usually bad) influence our ideas to improve them once you have that “I wonder why it can’t be easier – or why can’t it be done like X”. Acting on that idea to see if you can fix it is at least better for you and a handful of likeminded people – “2x improvements”. The iteration to move from that to providing an easier/painless/smooth/updated experience is the rest. And that determines success/fail of the business (if there was one). That’s a large jump but one that I may unpack in the future.

I think the notes below contain a solid mixture of hope for the future, business building, medicine and exploration.

  • Trae Vassallo (@trae), founder at Defy.vc (Wharton XM)
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    • Looking at focusing in early-stage connected software companies
    • Avoiding stigma of young and white and male – although that’s lore/myth, despite what we see in SF
      • Founders as average age of 40
      • Very diverse, including in their portfolio co’s
    • They lean on founders who they may have backed before
    • Attending Stanford for Bach, Masters and MBA
      • After undergrad, interned at Boeing for summer before realizing corporate wasn’t really for her, true engineering
      • Had more of a design mind – Ideo (design firm) kept intriguing her in SF
    • Niche for funding between big moves and some that don’t want massive venture deals – thought it was common enough to fit
  • Seyward Darby (@seywarddarby), Editor-in-Chief at The Atavist (Wharton XM)
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    • Discussing paper
  • Amazon to Deliver Healthcare, Google Quantum & VR/AR (16 Minutes on the News #10: 9/29/19)
    • Cost of employer-based healthcare just passed $20k annually for the first time
    • Often hear about “At least Amazon doesn’t deliver healthcare” – their position in the market is the source of fear
      • Haven’t hired nurses or physicians, partnered with Oasis
    • What would counterpart for realities of healthcare working
      • How do you integrate into supply chain of broader healthcare landscape (Amazon as just inserting into primary care, not others)
        • Primary care is a minor part of total spend
      • Game for startups is to get distribution before incumbent gets innovation
    • Oculus – advancing AR/VR very quickly – selling as fast as they can make them with Quest
      • Hand-tracking is working much better, technological advances
      • Verifocal lenses – different ways for seeing 3D
        • Big Screen as watching 3D films – true eye separation, although in VR, you don’t see great depth
    • Eyes trade off high resolution (central) compared to the outside which would be low res
      • Mobile GPU for glasses as less powerful but improving compared to ones that are plugged into the pc
      • Enough users where developers can be incentivized
    • Quantum computing as here – yes, but not broken for cryptography
      • You can run a computation / calculation on quantum computer
  • James Beshara (@jamesbeshara), cofounder at Tilt (20min VC FF#031, 1/22/16)
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    • Micro-crowdfunding platform, founded dvelo.org for crowdfunding loans and donations to poverty-alleviation
      • Then moved to friends funding
    • Khaled as co-founder – said “he’s the luckiest thing that happened to company”, introduced by a friend
      • 26 yr old running strategy at Rackspace – needed someone to develop because he didn’t have the development skills
    • College kids as the largest demographic here – wanted to make crowdfunding very easy
    • Fundraising process for the two of them, trying to get investments from real estate, oil & gas, hardware – didn’t understand
      • Were in ATX and had to do value prop for 90 seconds – duh?
      • Got into YC and grinded until that point, even for raising $500k
      • Helpful for Series A – growth graph that they didn’t have for seed
    • Destination in mind for investors – standalone, durable company (likely public)
    • 5 years away – building crowdfunding platform and taking it mainstream
      • Update: Didn’t make it.
  • Bryan Johnson (@bryan_johnson), founder of OS Fund and Braintree (20min VC 1/25/16)
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    • Bought by ebay in 2013 for $800mil, and launched OS Fund with $100mil in personal capital to benefit humanity
    • Extend human life, replicate visual cortex, reinvent transportation and food
    • Key question of building technology and the world we want – governmental systems improvement
      • Balancing returns – money is a tool of power and influence
      • Can be decades and he’d be fine with it
    • Interested in materials science and rearrangement of atoms – raw source inputs, business services and how to consume them
      • His portfolio is mostly genomics and synthetic biology
      • Has a sizable chunk of experts that they get advised by on specialties
    • Blockchain technology – thinks of the start to the printing press
      • Tools of creation and platforms of creation are hard to predict what would be next
    • Fav book: Shackleton’s Endurance Voyage, favorite person: Craig Ventur
    • Most exciting recent investment: Ginkgo Bioworks
  • Kamran Fallahpour (Director at Brain Resource Center in NYC) and Geoffrey Woo (CEO, Founder at HVMN) Brain Hacking (Wharton XM, Dot Complicated)b593e157-b9cc-4762-b437-ff43ca3f731e-1498462151992

    • Bryan Johnson on Brain Hacking and founder/CEO of Kernel, not a matter of if / when
    • Coming to Brain Resource Center: both children and adults, ADD, ADHD, brain injury, migraines, anxiety
      • Families with kids with attention issues or doing fine but want an advantage
    • First do a brain mapping using EEG – over- or underactivation
    • For Geoffrey, he had friends after Stanford trying to make machines or robots smarter, better and more efficient
      • He wanted to wonder how he could get humans to perform better – tinker with the body
      • Cognitive functions as being why we’re above the animals – n=1 experimental starts
    • Pubmed research articles on nootropics, reports on Reddit for chemical stacks, substances that were supplements or foods
      • Prescription or off-label, scheduled drugs legal or illegal
    • Improved sleep as best biohack, exercise for cardiac health and now regular exercise/weightlifting as brain cognition
      • Neuroplasticity growth and improving brain functions – any way to stimulate the brain, puzzles/language/out of comfort zone
      • Plateaus when looking at neural feedback
  • Andres Barriga (@andresbarriga), cofounder of Portola Growth Partners (Wharton XM)
    • Chilean venture capital after business school in the states
    • Growth in LATAM – primarily western countries and then up to Mexico for growth
    • Talent is starting to be attracted to possibilities
    • They got 3 US funds to invest
  • CRISPR! Policy, Platform, Trials (16 Minutes News by a16z #11)
    • CCR5 gene as preventing HIV
    • Alliance of 13 companies in the space to not do germline editing, but would still do therapeutic somatic cell genetics
      • Genome that runs the body and the one you pass on to generations – germline
      • Somatic cells will not be passed down to future generations (eyes, liver, etc…) and germline would
    • 1970s had discovery of recombinant DNA – tech to cut/paste genes
      • 1980s had genetic applications outside of the body – initial cut healthy copy of gene and put into virus and stick into humans
      • Late 90s – patient Jessica Zellwinger – can’t randomly do gene splicing
      • Talons – gobbler proteins – zinc fingers took forever to remove mutated genes but would take PhD students months and $10ks
    • Emergence of CRISPR as way to treat disease, in short order
      • Gene therapy, CRISPR, engineered cells to treat cancer, for instance
    • Legislation in California – preemptive for what could go wrong and how to be productive
      • What if the kit is used improperly
    • Applications – ex-vivo vs in-vivo (outside of bodies compared to in)
      • Vehicle/delivery compared to the load – which is ex-vivo and can be Quality Controlled
      • Eye as initial in-vivo CRISPR use since eye is immune-privileged (bacterial components of delivery)
      • CAR-T therapy for cancer patients – usually send cells to get edited and then put back in
  • Sarah Hum (@sarahhum), founder of Canny (Indiehackers #124 10/7/19)
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    • User feedback tool, feeling the pain of the data and trying to combine customer data
    • Just crosses $50k MRR – team of 5, transparent and paying team with money they make
    • Digital nomad – she was in the same place in SF with her cofounder – quit her full-time job but wasn’t making much
      • Team of 2 was easy as she traveled initially, couple

      • Indiehackers Courtland with his brother – know how to argue and disagree
    • Had done quite a bit of hackathons – worked at Facebook for 1.5 yrs before starting
      • Worked on Messenger as product designer – felt limited by what she wanted to do
      • PD is ~20%, she’s learned about marketing and pricing and sales otherwise
    • Started Product Pains as a community for people giving feedback over things – didn’t monetize initially
      • Had a community of 5000 people that primarily did consumer products
      • Rebranded to turn it into b2b and monetize – could change products with Product Pains (give them feedback, for instance)
      • Andrew had worked on team working with React – teammate had asked him after he left about what he was doing
        • Started using Product Pains to get information about developer pains – still a big mechanic
    • Eventually they had companies join Product Pains who asked if they had a widget
      • Didn’t have widget initially, but they asked if they built it, would they pay for it? Basically said yes – $19/mo
      • Had been 3 months after she quit to rebrand and launch as Canny
        • Had to get a pricing page going for payments
    • Get Satisfaction around 2008-2009 as Yelp for customer service / user feedback that got a ton of investor money
      • Raised $10-20mln and cratered in a short amount of time
    • Launched Canny on Product Hunt as a good initial feedback and went to Oct ’17 for profitability (hit Hacker News)
      • May / June talked about digital nomads – week or so before leaving and took off – first little tour of US and then went to London
      • 26 cities in 2 years, Seoul as reliable cafés and wi-fi – Nomadlist and about a month in each place
    • Writing 200 words a day – blogs every week then are almost 1400 words
      • Levers to grow a business (via Patrick Cambell, CEO of ProfitWell)
        • User acquisition – blogging, product via word of month
        • Monetization – pricing, how often to charge, how to upgrade, paid plan, etc
        • Retention – how long do people stick around
    • Pricing strategies: haven’t tried freemium
      • SaaS, thought about – started initially at $2/mo (cheapium)
        • They’d have to chase people for this
      • May be a good time to try again – never set it and forget it – should be able to charge more for it
      • Tried to charge based on people as what they thought it was the business / how much willing to pay / user base
        • As they figured out the market niche, they landed on the best to target
    • Having monthly goals and try to develop features or business things to help achieve those
    • Hiring – her never being a manager
      • Helping people do what they’re supposed to be doing and supporting their jobs
      • Openness as key – working together much of the day and being on the same page, feeling good
      • They do 3-4 meetings a year
    • For 1-2 years, they have quite a bit they want to build, features to grow bigger
      • Can see Canny working for larger businesses that have reached out – catered to small/medium-sized so far
      • Giant impact with very small teams
  • Amir Haleem (@amirhaleem), founder / CEO of Helium (talk on AVC / USV port co)
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    • Former esports champ in 90s, during dial-up days
    • Dial-up days – most competitive time for internet access, separation of those that provided services
      • US Robotics for modems, ISP like Speakeasy, telephone co like Verizon
      • Once internet got adopted and page loads enlarged, they merged
    • No option to use dial-up, cable appeared – “Internet got terrible”
      • Cable provider merged with ISP – physical lines vs provider
      • Comcast in SF as his example – local loop – LLUs – similar to telephone providers originally
    • Google Fiber – became extremely challenging for them to dig – cities wouldn’t let them dig, so they converted to wireless
      • 75-85% of customers use whatever the cable company gives them
      • Hardware in home – LoRa network or “sharing” hotspots to clog networks
    • Cellular market as too expensive soon, maybe contraction
    • Net neutrality – internet access as common carriers (2015)
      • FTC won’t mandate to cover common carriers
      • Net neutrality was only rules that were in place to rule against – until it died and how we govern ISPs
    • Cool companies in the decentralization of the internet
      • Orchid: tor-like system and rewarding nodes
      • FileCoin: store files anonymously, encrypted and hashed out
      • Brave: forced https and ads blocked, Tor as tab version
      • Helium: how to decentralize wireless links to base, especially with 5G and unlicensed spectrum
        • Blueprint of mesh of open technologies owned and operated by those that own and use the internet
    • Helium: IoT of low power sensors, tracking devices, network devices for access by others
      • Fundamentally do it and reward people with coins for holding it and for others to use it
      • Talking about using applications for the IoT world
        • mentioned the fires in NorCal in ’18 and not being able to tell the air quality within 20 mi radius
        • IoT seems to be ripe for improvement but hasn’t seen the network yet
  • Dennis McNannay, CEO & founder for Curadite, Inc (Wharton XM)736x196xcuradite-logo_long_gry.png.pagespeed.ic_.gqdo0yxdcw

    • Bioscience focus on medicine adherance
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