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Great Humans – Steve Jobs? Quora responds March 22, 2016

Posted by bluedevil32 in experience, questions, social, Uncategorized.
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There was a fascinating Quora question posed about where you would rate Steve Jobs on a scale of 1-10 of the greatest humans ever. Steve Jobs – not greatest human ever – Quora for the read. There were some fascinating comments that usually comprised of two parts: a) Steve Jobs is nowhere near the list for greatest humans ever (probably much to the chagrin of millennials and those who only know Apple), and b) there is likely a “small encyclopedia” of people ahead of him on the list, depending on how you may rate a ‘great human’.

In no particular order, persons who were brought up that stood out for me from the comments in the article:

  • Gandhi – who freed a nation by protesting peacefully, costing him his life
  • Stanislav Petrov – for urging incoming missile signals were the result of a systems error and refusing to fire retaliatory Soviet nuclear strikes, at the cost of his career.
  • Jonas Salk – creator of the polio vaccine who promptly gave it away instead of patenting and profiting (biotechs, do you read this?)
  • Florence Nightingale – who pushed tirelessly for improved health standards and ushered the move toward modern nursing

Steve Jobs seems to have been an excellent entrepreneur in not taking no as an answer and pushing his vision forward. He built up the company by being an excellent salesmen while extracting the best from his top engineers. Likely a bit on the cutthroat side, and clearly was a master businessman. He had his negatives (I believe ‘caged safety’ vs ‘risky freedom’ was a description of the Chinese Apple conditions).

Each individual has their own unique skill set. One can only hope that we are able to figure out that passion and able to work through our strengths. To progress humanity, that strength may come at some cost to the individual. But therein lies the selflessness.

Personal finance inefficiencies – debt March 6, 2016

Posted by bluedevil32 in Uncategorized.
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As an analytic, inefficiencies send my brain into overdrive wondering how they continue or what could be done to remedy them. Now, inefficiencies certainly have created markets where otherwise they may not have existed.

Most people should have been taught in Economics in high school about opportunity cost. This is the underlying concept behind most inefficiencies. The problem isn’t that the work does not get done – it’s that often, it’s done in the least economical way possible.

With the start-up financial lender I have been working with, I see it everyday with borrowers. People just do not [want to] understand their own finances. The principal concept of financial fitness is an excellent one. When in some debt where you have reached the point that you pay and pay and pay without making a dent due to high interest rates and the compounding, there should be the trigger that goes off that initiates a new, better-structured debt that will rid you of the one that has you in quicksand. Structured payments that won’t change over a 3 or 5-year term – and done, often or hopefully at a similar or better amount and throw in less interest. Borrowers seem to only understand that the investments/savings they put away is more important earning 6-8% than to rid themselves of the compounding 15, 20, even 30% interest slogging them down. Alas, money is money and the interest lost to credit cards will cancel that return you so craved for the year.

This is why we see borrowers receiving $15,000 / yr in disability at an advanced age or the middle-aged earner pulling in $200k, or the graduate of a university seeking to remove the debt placed on them from the inefficiencies of universities advancing tuition at a rate 200 times that of inflation over the last 30-40 years (we won’t go in to why they feel they can do this). Some ask the right questions, others do not. They see the numbers for the terms in front of them and blindly exclaim that it doesn’t work – why can rates be high if they earn x dollars and have xxx fico. Then when we look, they have savings or investments that could easily take care of the interest/debt extra but people do not understand that it’s usable – and likely a better option.

It’s no wonder why the average household holds $15k in credit card debt or total any type of debt of $130k (as taken by Q3 ’15 in NerdWallet data) where income as been outpaced by inflation and the average household pays $2500/yr in credit card interest alone. All of the little things add up, and people do not realize that. $6.85 a day sounds reasonable until you look at the $2500 for the year. What’s not having a coffee or as big a lunch as you planned? Well, over the year, that would equate to a substantial sum.

Information is available, but it needs to be read and talked about and understood. More importantly, it needs to be acted upon properly.

Eliminate bad debt that costs you and budget for the rest. You will realize there is a substantial amount that remains – and better, you’ll have the authority to control where you put it!

Off to the Super Bowl!! January 25, 2016

Posted by bluedevil32 in experience, NFL, Uncategorized.
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As what feels like a displaced fan at times, the highs and lows can be lonely! Thankfully, social media and the few like-minded friends make it a bit easier to spread the passion. Sports make us go through the whole spectrum of emotions – there is a brutal honesty in sports. At the same time, there can be a sweetness, a euphoric cry. Games that send you into an abyss (Super Bowl XLVIII) where the whole world melted away along with my Broncos’ chances. Luckily, it was quick. Seattle pummeled them from the first kick and the initial safety. It was like preparing for a slow band-aid but someone yanked it off once they grabbed enough.

Last year, it was revenge. Anything to see the Seahawks have their joy ripped from their hands. I remember the interception vividly. I surrounded myself by a good friend, new friends and strangers at a home. Consolation was that I won squares (moneys!) and a comeback for the ages in cornhole at half-time. Down 4-19 and had to cancel to keep going. It only seemed right that things continued to go my way. I recall only 1 or 2 Seahawks fans that were really only cheering against the Patriots. The other 28-30 people? New England fans for the day (I remember fans of the Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Broncos, Panthers) all watching intensely. Sports are rewarding for the quick, deep connections that are established – our brains groove the moments forever – people, plays, players, teams, date & time melded together for future versions of us to recall at the mention of a play, name, even a commercial!

I am spoiled. I have deep connections to generally winning franchises in the form of the Duke Blue Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Atlanta Braves, Denver Broncos, Bayern Munich. The Sacramento Kings are my lone-championship-less squad. But guess what? If it’s that great of a year, they’ll go all “We Believe” on the exact team that started it, and if I’m blindly biased (as all great fans should be), that will charge them to a title in just 7 few years! The Braves have won 1 title but were so good for so many years. The Red Wings during the 90s and start of 00s were dynastic. The Broncos had the late 80s and finally got over the hump with back-to-back titles in 97-98. Duke has spread their titles out since 2000 – doing their best when not thought of as the consensus favorite – hmmm out of the top 15 this year??

The Broncos, this year, have followed a similar pattern. Last year felt like a lot of pressure after the wipeout in the Super Bowl. New pattern – defense! 6-0 start with a sorry offense. A faux resurgence with Brock until that came crashing down during ugly second halves. Then the Peyton energy boost in the playoffs. So far, I’m just crossing my fingers. Health. A healthy defense for the first time in 4-5 years (as long as Wolfe is fine).
I couldn’t watch the 3rd Patriots drive inside our 20. Didn’t want to blow it. The offense looked so bad. The defense was the one that deserved to win it. Brady did a fantastic job of avoiding 4…5…6 sacks? Any of which could have ended the game. Gronk is a beast – and that truly worries me for Greg Olsen. But they got it done – big INT on the 2-pt conversion. Lots of pressure.

We go through a lot as fans. I won’t pretend to know what it feels like to be on the field experiencing it. But that’s the player’s jobs. For fans – it can be life. Luckily, I like to think that it’s just a joyful privilege that we can experience so much from watching a game.

Thank you, sports. Thank you, Broncos! Let’s go on this last, little ride with Peyton.

Let’s go Denver! Let’s go Broncos Country! #OrangeCrush #NoFlyZone #OutonTop

Week 9 FanDuel LU Review – Working on Higher Average Scores November 9, 2015

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First off, I have used/tried a plethora of Optimizers, and to date, I’m not sure any of them are excellent as they stand. It comes down to tweaks, feel, and adjustments – then the optimizer can fill in as you see fit. Having said that, the apparent leader from where I stand, is a combination of FantasyLabs with their trends, projections, models, and game-by-game analysis. The information is all in front – it’s up to you what you do with the information. FantasyPros has been a blessing as well for me, until I get my full usage of FantasyLabs (awaiting Android before committing). Between the fun Start/Sit contest each week (this week went terribly, last week I finished ahead of every expert) and the line-up contest for FanDuel & DraftKings, the projections are crowd-sourced and demonstrate the feel for players across the league each week.

Top line-up for FD so far: 161.14 points (no players left), good for 4th in Mike Vick’s 100 person league so far.
QB D. Carr RB Ingram RB McFadden WR Crabtree WR A. Brown WR D. Thomas TE G. Olsen K J. Brown DEF Bills
RB’s were a bit disappointing as well as Demaryius’ line. Greg Olsen and Josh Brown helped make that up, though. And clearly, Derek Carr/Crabtree stack worked out with Antonio Brown (284 yards! Christ!)

Second line-up for FD: 155.56 (2 entries)
QB Rodgers RB McFadden RB Langford (to go tonight) WR A Brown WR Crabtree WR Cobb TE Olsen K Walsh DEF Falcons
Rodgers/Cobb recovered in the 4th quarter nicely and paired with the WR’s Crabtree/Brown, did well.

Worst line-up for FD: 95.76 (1 entry)
QB Winston RB D. Lewis (hurt) RB D. Martin (crappy) WR M. Evans (drops aplenty) WR Odell WR Cooper TE Reed K McManus DEF Saints – Evans couldn’t catch what Winston wanted him to. Martin didn’t get to 20 carries. Odell/Cooper saved days with TD’s each, as did Reed (nonexistent thru 3 qtrs). Saints got shellacked by Mariota. Happens when you try to get cute with line-ups – too many Bucs!

I’ll recap Draftkings tomorrow and tell the results of my Fanduel line-ups.

For now, good luck people. Hope for a shoot-out tonight? I think so.

Week 5 Quick Review & Week 6 Start October 14, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, NFL, Stacks, Week 5, Week 6.
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So, I’m going to keep this brief. I got way too ballsy this past week. Too many tournaments, too much risk, and not enough lineups to increase variation. I got slammed with wrong choices in having Demaryius / Julio in almost all line-ups. I got hurt by Lacy’s lack of pass-catching (and too much emphasis on home success for GB) & JC’s injury. TE & D/ST picks were bad, as well. Charles Clay didn’t do anything & Bennett was targeted 11 times but caught only 4 in what played out as an underperform. Jaguars got shellacked and the Giants, for whatever reason, created minimal pressure Sunday night. Well – that’s a lot of bad in spots that statistically should have been consistently high-floor.

So, the good? Rivers & Bell saved my ass Monday night so I didn’t get blanked. I wasn’t on ABrown due to Vick’s lack of rapport with him, which was good in a fade-case. Allen Robinson performed with Blake Bortles (who I was on in a few leagues). Rivers had a few good games. Brady/Edelman worked out after the 4th qtr touchdown but Gronk disappointed for how expensive he was. Dion Lewis was productive. I was not on Devonta Freeman and he continued to have a nice game. I also faded a good Doug Martin spot (suspect weather, minimal passing potentially). I figured that I would have scored with a few lineups in the high 140’s but I didn’t. Only one lineup hit 165+ and cashed on DK.


Week 6
I will try to do better – buckled down and read through more of Jonathan Bales’ series Fantasy Football for Smart People. Staying consistent with bankroll management and being diligent with a process weekly will be vital in success. To compile the statistics, I’ll likely use a trial for DailyFantasyNerd or Fantasy Labs to ensure I have the data in one spot. I could create a page for myself, but that will be fine-tuning what I want to use consistently.

So, let’s start with defenses. I read through Bill Barnwell of Grantland’s NFL Statistical Temperature. Without looking at this week’s schedule, I pared down defenses that I would be interested in playing, depending on home/away, weather, opponent, in no particular order.

Denver, Arizona, GB, NYJ (w/out a D TD so far) are the top tier. TEN, DET, NE, CIN, SEA, CAR would be the next, likely. PHI, MIN and ATL have been making plays but could be inconsistent depending on game flow.

RB’s – Forte, Foster, TJ Yeldon look good so far. Ryan Mathews has been productive. Do we continue to ride Devonta?
WR’s – Hopkins is just gobbling up targets for ppr leagues. AJ Green could be interesting – I feel like Dalton alternates between his receivers/tight ends. Just focuses in on them. EIfert was last week so Green could be this week. We cannot forget about TASER, Bryan Mears’ new statistic – anticipatory of red zone regression for touchdowns (potentially). Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen headline it. Of those, I’d think Cooper & Golden Tate are most likely to score (Denver needs to get NEAR the red zone first and Keenan may be left out since Antonio is back). Let’s flip a coin between Hurns/Robinson again or play them both – that’s worked before. Snead on a Thursday night could be a fade position, or minimal play because of the cheap cost still. We all THINK it will be high-scoring… but will it on a Thursday with Julio in pain? I’d like to think that it won’t be and be in better position Sunday.

TE’s – I’ll have some action with Gronk & Gates. Chargers will have to throw against GB. Eifert played incredibly on Sunday (thanks to that for my main season-long league). Barnidge is apparently a) a real-life football player and b) target monster. Charles Clay is near the top of TASER as well, but with Tyrod potentially out, I may want to avoid that Bills line-up altogether.

These are my initial thoughts – I’ll see today and tomorrow what I can put together and post going forward.

Good luck to the ALDS teams today in their Game 5’s!

Happy to say my Red Wings in NHL are an impressive 3-0-0 with a +7 differential to go with the Broncos 5-0. Keep it up!

Overlay Sites – Money to be Made! October 11, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Uncategorized.
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As we near an hour before Week 5 kick-offs, I wanted to point out 2 major sites that I use when determining some last-minute submissions.

Super Lobby by @Dailyfantasylobby breaks down the overlays/rake of any games across an array of platforms. As we near kick-off, you can see how many people will often rush to those games as people realize the value of the available spots.

Another instance is done by @DailyOverlay Rake Tool which will display all games with > $5000 in prizes.

Both of those tools can be edited to show games of your preferred type (50/50, double ups, GPP, Leagues, etc…).

Right now, it appears that FanDuel has a #2 NFL Rush out for $5 to win $100k in prizes. Draftkings has the NFL $100k Playaction ($100k guaranteed) for $3. Both with nearly 50% of the remaining entries left. That is some serious cash that would go available to the players that did get entries in.

I had a friend who I showed this to for an MLB tournament a few weeks ago after he had just joined DK. There was sufficient overlay of maybe $50k. He threw $20 in and won $75, basically for being in the upper third.

Remember, you still have to place well, but if you’re anticipating that you’re a better player than 66-75%+ of players, then these are the opportunities to cash in on.

Good luck Week 5!

Go Broncos! (Obligated to cheer harder for my squad today after I was disappointed by my Golden Bears’ loss last night in Utah).

Week 4 Results – DK Fail & FanDuel Success October 7, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, gym, NFL, Stacks, week 4.
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Yup, that’s right! FanDuel – there wasn’t a contest that I didn’t place in. Mainly due to the fact that my lineups did very well in all of the 50/50’s, DoubleUps and free-rolls. However, on draftkings, where I played a majority of tournaments, I was very close to min. cash or not in the money at all.

For week 3, I was gone/without service all weekend, so the few lineups I had in, I minimally cashed/lost. 2 weeks in a row on DK that I have lost a few $ here and there (not to mention the fun runs I took at LoL Championships as well as Wed-Fri spread of MLB games – not wise when teams were already clinched or didn’t care).

  • Fanduel results:
    5 entries played – 4 wins – 2 ticket (survivor advance, barely)
    I don’t remember where I read it, but there was an analysis done on larger 50/50’s where, assuming you’re on average better than a majority of players, you have a greater success rate in larger pools. So far, that’s proved to be correct.

    • In $350k Double-Up (with nearly 75k entries), I placed 5842 with a score of 123.74 ($5 entry for $10 winnings).
      Dalton/Green stack with LMurray, Karlos, Demaryius, Amari, MBennett, MBryant/Falcons D stack (high score)
    • FPFC Qualifier Double-Up (152 of 521) with score of 111.94 ($10 entry for $20 winnings)
      Carr/Crabtree stack w/ Karlos, JCharles, JuJones (ouch), JaJones, Barnidge (savior), Hauschka/Seattle D stack
    • Excl Football Guys Contest didn’t go that well (777 of 3119) with 110.84 ($2 entry $2 win)
      same as FPFC except swapped JamesJones/Barnidge for Amari & Martellus
    • FBGFC Qualifier Double-Up tournament (32 of 1097) with 130.06 ($10 entry $20 win & ticket later in season)
      Cam, Forte, Karlos, Julio, Amari, Moncrief, Martellus, Josh Lambo (nice 14), Falcons D (yup)
    • $250k Sun NFL Survivor Tourney (42406 of 57471) with 88.54 ($5 entry, ticket won, advanced)
      Dalton/Green stack with Randle/LMurray(ouch comb 13), demaryius, stevieJ (ugh), ebron (injured), mcmanus/Denver D stack (decent scores)
    • FantasyPros $2000 contest for saved lineups – placed 65 of 951 for $20 credit on FD (devonta and andy dalton)
  • So I found that I like stacking kickers with the defenses so far. Relatively positive correlation and it has worked with a select few kickers/defense – good field position relations, typically.
  • Draftkings results:
    • As I mentioned, this didn’t go as well. Likely because I played in too many tournaments.
    • In the double-ups I played, I cashed in all 3. So for those keeping count, I was 6 for 6.
    • Same lineup for 3 double-ups score of 136.74 (62 of 217), (99 of 340), (423 of 1135) for 3x $1 entries, $2 each of winnings
      Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre (2nd half!!), JuJones, Bennett (yup), Broncos D
    • I played all-day Sunday teams and had a ~112 score, while I played early Sunday match lineups and had those go for 147 and 144 for winners.
    • 2x $.25 Arcade & $2k First Down ($1 entry, $2 win) earlies for $.50 winnings on $.25 entries (144.66 score)
      Tyrod/Karlos/Clay/Bills D stack w/ Forte, AJ Green, T.Y., Deandre (savior), AllenRob
    • Had a ThursSun Line-up that did terribly (103.96) for $3 entry and 0 winnings
      Flacco/SmithSr/MaxxWill/Ravens stack, Leveon, Ivory (rb successes), ABrown, Rishard, Jarvis (wr duds)
    • Played $0.25 Quarter Arcade (Sun only) for $1 entry, $2 winnings (147.56 score)
      Rodgers, Devonta (great), Hyde, Keenan, Amari, JuJones, Fleener (good), Karlos, Raiders D
    • Daily Dollar ($50k) $1 entry for $2 win (136.74 score for 9220 of 52596)
      Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre, JuJones, Bennett, Broncos D
    • 130.16 score didn’t work for $1 $150k First Down or $0.25 Arcade
      Rodgers/Packers, Devonta, Gore, Evans, JuJones, Moncrief, Olsen, Karlos
    • Another Flacco / Ravens stack for Thurs-Sun produced the 112, which didn’t go well in any of the 3 entries (-$5).
  • So we’ll see. Seems consistent with stacks where I’ll go 2 for 4 and hope that the stacks hit bigger. This week, they didn’t do as much because of the chalk not performing as well. The few good calls at TE and Devonta saved those stacks to at least cash.

We’ll see how the next week goes – I may end up trying more double-ups to at least build bankroll.

To next week!

Week 2 NFL DFS Recap September 23, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, experience, NFL, Week 2.
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I woke up this morning to news from the lineup optimizer on FantasyPros: “CONGRATS! You came in 14th out of 1,728 players in our DraftKings Lineup Contest. Claim your $20 DraftKings Prize: You’re all set. The $20 prize will be credited to the DraftKings use”

Great news! I only entered 2 lineups since I had forgot about it, and my Ravens stack did very well.

QB Flacco, RB Forsett, RB Lynch, FLEX Hyde (two weaknesses), WR A Brown, WR A Robinson, WR J Landry, TE Gillmore, D Ravens

I have really enjoyed fantasypros – found them last year before the season so I have a pro subscription for seasonal fantasy and have found their optimizer one of my favorites. Nearly all of the data is pooled from experts across the industry.
First, let’s speak of Fanduel, where I played 3 lineups in a total of 6 contests. I had 2 H2H (one was free, other for $2), 1 50/50 league at $1, 1 DoubleUp for $2, another for $10, and a $4k tourney for $1. I won both H2H and the $10 double up. Something like $16.00 in fees for a simple winnings of $23, +$7 (~38%). The TeamRankings Football Championship Week 2 was my best scoring lineup – 123.2, good for 83 of 535. Lineup was saved by Antonio Brown (32) and Larry Fitz (33.2), Jordan Matthews garbage time TD (17), and consistent scoring from Bailey (8) and Texans D (6), but dragged by Brees, Abdullah, Lynch, ASJ.
99.9 was enough to win a the $2 and free H2H’s, rolling with Carson Palmer (22.2), John Brown (7), L Miller (6.7), Lynch (7.7), Garcon (11.3), ODB (24.1), Eifert (12.9), Josh Brown (9) and Ravens D (-1). RB’s didn’t end up haunting me in the H2H, thankfully.
With DraftKings, I had a lineup go for 188.66, one for 180.36, one for 171.96, 129.9, 122, 89.36, 80.26, 115.9, or 126.3.
  • I played 5 H2H’s – one lost on Monday night. I went 1-1 in $5 H2H (net -$1), 1-2 in $1 H2H (net -$1.20).
  • I played 3 freerolls and went winless.
  • Where I did make my money was in $0.25 arcades, $1 and $3 tourneys.
    • I placed 1405 of 115k for $7 on a $1 entry (net $6) with 180.36
    • I played 5 quarter arcades (3-2) for 3 entries won (net $3.75) – 188.66, 180.36 and 171.96.
    • I played 2 $1 entry to $10k gpp and finished 149 and 151 of 11.5k entries (180.36 and 180.26) for (net $8)
  • I found great success with stacking Pitt (Big Ben, Deangelo, ABrown, Heath) as well as mixing in Woodhead, TWill, and the Cardinals D.
  • Flacco, Forsett (eh), Gillmore and Ravens D (eh) with receivers ABrown, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis. Marshawn was not a success but needed a big horse to anchor the RB spots.
  • I had Saints and Eagles stacks that did not perform very well. Luckily, they were good enough in h2h games, saved by other receiver plays.

Until next week, see you!

Thoughts of the Day – GenY finance, Daily fantasy ‘expert’-testing, other questions September 17, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Altucher, DFS, experience, finance, gym, PGA, questions, Scutify, social, training.
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Every day I receive a post from James Altucher @jaltucher – he’s an author of one of USA Today’s “12 Best Business Books of All-Time” Choose Yourself, which describes at length the power of one’s self, as well as a successful (and that does not mean he hasn’t failed) entrepreneur, hedge fund manager, asset manager, columnist, as well as podcast producer. His valuable insights, podcasts and publications enlighten us to choose yourself and your passions to create revenue streams aplenty. He simply asks a lot of questions of many people to see what has driven them, and in turn, learn for himself.

In my recent conversations, I have noticed that this is a skill that is falling out of favor very easily of many people – and more so, whether they’re just more of who I come into contact with, but Gen Y and Millennials. So, in light of my observations, I would like to go over what I observed/questioned today.

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Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 Results September 15, 2015

Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, NFL, Week 1.
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So, after 1 week I am in the black quite a bit, despite an overall losing record! Who doesn’t like those tournaments?!

Last year I was going more off of a feel for playing and breaking even. This year, I will look for tournament opportunities for overlay and pad with a better performance on h2h, triple ups or 50/50s. Fortunately, for overlays (where value is much higher per entry because the guaranteed money does not meet the number of entries), I stumbled upon a number of sites that aid in finding these. Namely, Super Lobby! which combines Draftkings and Fanduel (among others) to show overlay in tournaments. Incredibly useful for the people who are trying to be smart about entry fees.

For those that are curious how I did this past week, continue reading. Otherwise, I will post who I’m looking at and what I’m doing for Week 2 in the coming days! Again, if you’re looking to play or take a shot: Draftkings link! – Remember to search for a promo code on your favorite fantasy / insider website to valuable premium subscriptions (Rotogrinders, 4for4, fantasypros, teamrankings). Fanduel if you prefer .5 ppr and Kickers

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