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Prioritizing Personal Projects (Notes from December 23 – 29, 2019) June 1, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Digital, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Leadership, marketing, social, sports, storytelling, Strategy, Time, TV, Uncategorized.
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We overestimate what we can do in a short time but underestimate what we can do in a longer period. This has been reiterated by Jamie Siminoff, Bill Gates, many others. It’s telling but a great mantra if you can zoom out and high level back off. Scheduling makes this so much better.

I have wanted for the longest time to get Spotify or another podcast to listen to me in the car and allow me to say something basic like “Make a note 30 seconds ago” and let me review the notes later. This could work for audiobooks or podcasts. Even allowing ebooks and articles to bookmark this type of stuff for where the page is would be useful. But maybe that’s through an API in the podcast or Kindle? I’ll have to see and report back.

In light of planning further career-wise, I have taken it upon myself to take on projects that I plan on making public for analysis sake. As an external consultant, much of my work has been NDA / kept private in general for good reasons (VC firms and start-ups are likely some of the more controlled privacy-wise). Some aren’t, and those are typically the ones that I’ve noticed have a much better, transparent brand or have less questions around their business models. A few things have stood out to me about predictions/forecasting, especially in annual or quarterly time frames that publications will release. I have focused on ML/Fintech/Edtech/Data companies over the last 5 years more heavily, so looking through the Fintech 50, Next Billion Dollar (Unicorn) Startups and Hottest 50 LA Startups. Outside the bay area / silicon valley, scanning through the different ecosystems can be an interesting landscape for focused, scaling and growing startups. LA because it’s still in California, somewhat close proximity but ultimately an alternative driving force than typical elsewhere (namely the bay).

So, I’ll have a chance to update my preliminary thoughts on the year-to-year changes – how many startups dropped off, which proceeded to move up the list, any funding raises, product progress or expansion. Hope you enjoy the notes!

  • Decade in Tech (Wharton XM)
    • 4G entering 2011 compared to 5G now
    • iPad introduction – better than netbook
      • Tablet rampup – Microsoft following with the Slate
    • Social media launching
      • Instagram launch in September 2010 – 2 guys at Stanford
      • Taking photo class from a plastic camera that a professor had given him – best, soft focus and filtered photography
      • Offering to buy Instagram in April 2012 for $1bn
    • Tesla as “gift of light” Model S – first time supercharging across the country
      • Musk took CEO role in 2008 (Model S 2012)
    • WeWork – likeminded individuals wanting to work with others outside of making money
      • Sharing space to be something bigger
      • $16bn in 2016 to pulling IPO in 2019
      • Strength as marketing capability, not necessarily management
    • Controversial events
      • Kendall Jenner at BLM Pepsi commercial
      • United – offering money for ‘volunteers’ until 4 people get off flight
        • $400 voucher and up to $800 – escalation, dragging the Chicago doctor kicking and screaming
        • Many other airlines improving overbookings
    • Ice bucket challenge for ALS – 70k tweets per day at peak
    • A/R rise as it started with Pokemon Go
    • Cutting the chord – rise of unbundling
  • Brant Pinvidic, author of 3-Minute Rule: Say Less to Get More (Wharton XM, Career Talk)
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    • Mostly reminding people of what they’re doing badly / guilty – awareness but wanted to change it to make it productive
    • Help you get as much info in 3 minutes as possible since “elevator pitch” doesn’t really work anymore
      • Meaningful engagement or not now
    • Small ideas not actually small ideas – respect the knowledge of your audience
      • Your excitement is a long history of building information – feed them piece by piece
        • Ex – AirBnb for horses: people that travel with horses need to stick them where they’re going
      • Clarity as super compelling – complications are messed up
    • Don’t open with the hook – audience needs to build into the potential
      • Katy Perry example: more Guinness book of World Record accomplishments, for instance
    • Selling a show in 12 minutes in Hollywood as junior producer between Simon Cowell and Mark Burnett – had gotten down on himself
    • People looking for hook – less dynamic personalities (biotech, oil & gas) that pulls the nervous energy out for why it will be great
    • Bringing an idea to life on post-it with just a few words – see the value come together
      • 25 bullet points to pitch his show as well as he did (core piece of information)
    • Halfway to understanding what the hook is when you can place the hook
  • Jonathan Lai (@tocelot), cnsmr team; Joel De La Garza, CIO at Box (16min on  News #17, 12/20/19)
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    • Star Wars trailer premier in Fortnite – JJ Abrams coming out of Millennium Falcon and asked to choose which trailer
      • Interactive and persistent collaboration with Avengers and now Star Wars (lightsaber)
      • 12 million people showed up for Marshmello’s in-game concert (of 250 million users)
    • Scarcity in a world of abundance – getting people there
    • Brand advertisers have a limited set of options to reach Gen Z – no display ads, billboards, maybe Snapchat or TikTok
      • Hundred hours of watching YouTube or Twitch or in-game events that eventually go out after to share
    • Fortnite’s Chapter 2 server downtime of 3 days as “Black Hole” that went viral and video
    • Security and backdoor encryption – creating escrow keys to get backdoors
      • Can’t create backdoors undermines the trust in general, even if good guys
    • Any discussion around weakening crypto doesn’t make sense
      • Conflation between a few things: we have systems that are built and they should provide backdoors/access to law enforcement
        • Backdoor to phones, for instance
      • Phone uses strong cryptography and backdoor there – focus on cryptography
      • Phone and put in safe – nobody talks about the steel of the safe – access
    • End-to-end encryption vs getting phone stolen, for instance
      • Roger Stone investigation: WhatsApp and Signal to communicate but iCloud turned on which saved all messages anyhow unencrypted
      • Metadata and other encryption can tell you far more than even the messages themselves
    • If you build devices, how much gov access do you want to provide?
      • Joel (grad student, involved in CDN – bad actors, like pedos, would use and work with Interpol to find them)
  • What to Know about CFIUS (a16z 12/23/19)
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    • Committee on Foreign Investment in US on Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2018, updated in September ’19
    • Katie Haun interviewing Michael Leiter (law firm Skadden Arps) about function to review any foreign investment in US business with natsec concerns
      • 13 agencies ran by Dept of Treasury split between 2 camps: want foreign investment and concerned about security (intelligence, NSA, FBI)
      • Semiconductor moving from US to Japan, for instance, that would limit Japanese investments
    • CFIUS limiting in 2006 for Saudi Arabia and Emirates and now is Chinese investment in the US
      • Changes in technology, expansion of data and things that weren’t present even 10 years ago
      • Tech, data touch, real estate, work with US gov or anything else (dog food sold to SEALs)
    • Everyone working in fintech, credit reports, broad financial data will have more than a 16-digit credit card number and will be subject
      • 1 million people for arbitrary amount of data
    • Prior to CFIUS reform, if Alibaba acquired someone, it was up to both parties to submit to CFIUS – vast txns were never seen, no req
      • Both parties come together, transaction description, foreign acquirer, motivation, business reason
        • Good, very bad (president can veto using Article 2), can impose mitigation for sec risk (board of US citizens, data controls, etc)
      • Pieces of reform that are not voluntary – fines and compliance possible
      • Mandatory if company operates in sensitive sector listed, or produce/design export control tech
        • Includes encryption, investment over some size – mandatory filing
        • High-end types of LIDAR – controlled vs standard for automobile, not controlled
      • Could range from (ER99 not, or export-controlled) – computing power, battery storage, sensors
      • Software tends not to fall under CFIUS unless encryption
    • WSJ civil military cooperation – some stuff is mandatory and more stuff will be
    • US business – interstate commerce, could be French office with US office in US – CFIUS gets to look at US element of transaction if French company is picked
      • Green-field investments – foreign investments can be made and won’t be looked at, really
      • Ultimate parent and ultimate ownership of acquirer or investment (private equity, capital)
    • More than 9.9% equity or some other controlling interest – board seat, for instance
  • Josh Sapan, CEO AMC Network (Wharton XM)
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    • Challenging to get through people’s gateways to get to audiences
    • Base incumbent business for United States – affiliates, selling ads and that represents their financial fundamental part of company
      • Video prices coming down in different options
      • Spending less money on AMC Networks in the skinny bundles
    • Toughest marketplace for Netflix to deal with – Indonesia, as CEO said
      • Vertical scaling vs horizontal
  • Adam D’Augelli (@adaugelli), Partner at True Ventures (20min VC 12/16/19)
    true-ventures-logo

    • Investments in Fitbit, Peloton, Hashicorp, Splice, Ring, Automattic, Tray.io
    • Instructor at Uflorida in Business Finance, founder of Perfect Wave Records (donations)
    • Full-time in June 2010, 10 people total about to invest in second fund
      • Met them through vstocksolutions portfolio company (had worked there internship)
      • Reached out potentially – didn’t know where to start at intersection business/finance/tech – UF not as well-known
      • Phil had offered a role – we like you but haven’t hired someone as junior so come and we’ll see
    • Joining as a young one – new firm where you have a ton to do and roles not really defined, structured
    • Thinking about portfolio construction and business models (under-represented in vc discussions)
      • Fund-level returns for partners – funds at True are around $300mln with specific institutional capital at pre-seed, seed
      • Investments $500k-$3.5mln targeting 20-25% ownership, $2mln for 22.5%
      • Self-selection bias for why they have a better way for them
    • They back founders early, invest $1-3mln and try to own 20-25% where the downside is 1% and it will be a maximize risk for timing
    • 28 people twice, 8 people three times for the founders they’re backing now
    • Amy Errett – starting Madison Reed, wanted $2mln to get off ground for equity
    • In ’06, convincing founders to try not to raise as much
    • Lead investment amount – meaningful bias for single lead with deep pockets
      • New group of firms that will work with emerging founders where they can bring others in, potentially
    • Ring or Splice are interesting businesses now, but in earliest stages, True able to support them through risks at start
    • In each fund, make 45-50 initial investments and reserve heavily
      • 1 or 2 founders, investment in company, will generate the whole fund and 6-8 will be fund-level return (25%+)
      • Inputs to each investment: founder taking tons of product, market size market-risk at their price and raising their type of money
    • Culture at True: decisions done by protagonist with support of 1 or 2 others in nonconsensus way
      • Support for whole team and company – investment loss as part of process for repeatable out-performance
      • 1 of 10 says the company fits the model, bring on team and then get excited
    • Investing at seed stage – 65% near or at company inception, 1 to 3 founders super early
      • Board is access to True, investment team and founder network – monthly call for an hour or so, call me when you learn
      • Board coffees – 15min conversations on this – enable for speed
      • Take board seat at series A – 90 minutes every 8 weeks, roughly, when they have multiple investors, etc…
    • Select funds – pitch to founders: be here day 1, continue to invest as you go further, what’s best for company
      • He was on board at Ring during acquisition – partner John still on at Peloton
    • Learned a ton from Jamie Siminoff – how fast you can grow is much faster than you think
      • Taking asymmetric risk early on within business is valuable – ex. DoorBot – Jamie rebranded
        • Ring.com domain found, was going to raise $3.5 mln – ultimate cost was $1mln ($200k on that day)
    • Favorite book: Doing Capitalism in Innovation Economy by Bill Janeway and Carlota Perez Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
    • Biggest challenge in role: Doing more doesn’t correlate with improved performance – Mitchell and Hashicorp had left a portco and later invested in him
      • Steve and Splice – met in Bogota at a conference and happened to meet him in NYC for breakfast after
      • Don’t know which activities are the right ones
    • Knowing more about a market – false sense of security to catch up with knowledge
      • Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable – academic paper – markets in many unknowns where knowing more leads to worse decisions
    • David Scott at Matrix – software metrics and repeatable business growth
    • Randy Glide at DFJ Growth – embraces risk and has a human approach
    • Andy Wiseman at USV – small significant syndicate being a great co-investor
    • Pat at Sequoia – depth of knowledge on being a great board member and partner to CEOs
    • Recent investment: MemBio – mission-driven bio and positive impact creating red blood cells outside the body

Listening and Encouraging (Notes from December 16 to Dec 22, 2019) May 21, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, DFS, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Hiring, Leadership, NFL, NLP, RPA, social, sports, Strategy, Uncategorized.
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Sometimes it doesn’t work. Asking the right questions to people in conversations to get a sense of what they’re truly passionate about gives me hope for those that may eventually try something different, new. However, unless I followed up repeatedly, most people let their passion slowly pass, or just remain in thought.

This is a big part of how I learn, engage and stay passionate for the things I’m curious about. Other than being scared of stagnation, hearing people come up with ideas, test them, build and hopefully succeed repeatedly gives me an energy to try to convince others to do the same. I understand the difference between being told of something that has been mulling around in someone’s head or even light discussion among friends compared to prototyping or validating with potential customers or asking people in the field if something’s viable.

A few examples of ideas people have told me they wanted to start and hadn’t (yet some that I believe have done well, just have room in the market) include an HR in Tech stories podcast, traveling medicine / tourism aggregator, and a d2c ecommerce diamond shop (which I’ll go into more detail), more social podcast sharing among friends, and still a market-taking happy hour app (yes, I had to insert my own – I’m leaning toward Glide.app through Google Sheets).

For diamond shop – this was by someone who graduated with entrepreneurship degree, had a validation for the idea and then was told by others it wasn’t worth doing because it’d be high cost. Granted, that was a few years ago, but it would’ve been hackable then. It’s certainly easier now with ecommerce shops via Facebook/Etsy/Shopify and other support, not to mention the audience you’d be in front of. The premise is that a diamond historically took the role of what a pearl represented because of the hardness – you could pass this on as an heirloom to further generations, and you know it won’t be breaking. It’s yours. There’s a legitimate attachment there that defines a core part of the worth/value. For the idea – it’s increasingly cheaper to 3D print a model you can build/customize on CAD (or related tools). This would be printed in plastic that can be melted to be replaced by silver – these rings would be sent to customers that are ordering (possibly with a small down payment / shipping covered, ie $5-20). It’s a model of what the ring would look like, just without the diamond part – but as far as sizing/size/bulk and the other key parts of the ring, customers can try them on and feel it. There’s an emotional attachment here that should occur. If they’re loving it, or have requests for changes, they can do that. Possibly a back and forth could take place, but once it’s settled, the wax/plastic mold can be printed as they would normally do a custom ring and use the materials that have been requested. We’ve removed the in-shop aspect and made it personal, simply by removing much of the fixed costs and labor costs that would go in to this. She was an expert in jewelry and had years of experience. Someone just told her no. 3D printing is now a hobby and can be done there. Many jewelers have other shops do the molding. I’ve been thinking of helping her start by just simply creating a mockup of the site. Can certainly figure out the rest.

Anyhow, let’s see the notes.

Week of December 16, 2019

  • Tyler Willis (@tylerwillis), angel investor (20min VC 2/16/16)
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    • Raised with seed companies at Index Ventures, Founders Fund, Khosla Ventures
    • Port co’s include Lyft, Patreon, Change.org
    • First co that he was on founding team on was acquired by Oracle, then had a friend raising a seed round for concept in CV
      • Preproduct, premarket where he did a small investment (decided it was bad to keep all eggs in one basket)
      • Decided to invest in Patreon, Loungebuddy (Airport lounges) and ShopApp inside of Shopify
    • Rocketship – valuation doesn’t play a role but ID opps for big (10x path, seed > 10k)
    • Customer acq and growth as a lightweight process to get a core part of the company
      • Optimizing for experiments – 1 week to test compared to 8 week deployment
    • Founder type – uniquely insightful to the place they’re in
      • Bias for people when he can sit down and get a high-octane thinking / smarts – hard to hang out to the rocketship
      • False dichotomy of domain expertise – could have learned wrong lessons or may not know anything in enterprise, for instance
    • East of Eden, Innovator’s Dilemma as great books
    • Favorite investors – Naval, Sam Altman, Gus Tai at Trinity Ventures
    • Favorite app – Omni (stuff storage), Delectable (learning about wine)
  • Ash Fontana (@ashfontana)- GP Zetta, Leo Pelovets – GP Susa Ventures (Venture Stories 12/17/19)
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    • Getting pricing power – need to find balance between incentivizing founders and price, but not a big deal
      • If they get 80% of company, 20% for founders – may not keep them looking ahead
    • Company and VC differences – companies have different roles but VC has very similar, solitary roles
    • On non-investing side, COO or Head of Ops to run operations but not particularly CEO or investing side needed
    • Working with best founders, LPs aren’t as important (but they are the primary VC customers)
      • None matters unless you have results for LPs and providing value – founders need the platform or help
    • If you were an LP, what would you want to be in: YC, First Round or Benchmark?
      • YC for Ash – lots of opportunity for capital deployment at many different levels
      • Benchmark for Leo – very large differentiated returns, ~30x according to Leo (YC may be 5x-7x possibly)
        • More variance because of smaller portfolios in Benchmark
      • YC may be beatable but it would be in losing their way as a general accelerator
        • Ash brought up operational risk for LPs – more points of failure because of all the touchpoints
    • AngelList as trading to be profitable and dynamic system for new things
    • LinkedIn as insurmountable lead in enterprise/business space of social network (as opposed to consumers)
      • Hard to disrupt with multiple verticals
    • Requests for startups: data generation/building data (synthetically) – ex w/ params
      • 10k examples of chairs that are brown that have 4 legs, in low light, at this angle
      • Weather climate, also
      • AutoML – making it easy for non-specialist engineers to experiment with ML
    • Leo Requests: ISA with bundling with coaching, training, VISAs – realigning incentives
  • Ben Tossell, founder Makerpad, Sahil Lavingia (@shl), founder GumRoad (Indie Hackers 11/11/19)
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    • No-code vs code – building a solution to a problem without being technical
    • First web-sites like Dreamweaver and tables for no-code – like WYSIWYG
      • Halfway things like WordPress where you can customize or use framework
      • Building a newsletter, can use Substack, for instance – Marc Andreesen
    • Sahil’s opinion that we’re unlikely to see a billion dollar start-up without a code base
      • But likely to see many creatives build on their own, have the options
    • Choice of no-code compared to code – using Circle as their integration testing methods
    • Nontechnical founders that had cofounders for developers or finding for cheap
    • Ben as bringing up Lambda School (Airtable, Slack, Zoom, Notion) and Makerpad member who was just starting to say it’s breaking
      • $150mn in Series A to get to worry about things breaking first
      • “What’s my Airbnb version look like?” but should focus on the first $10, 100 before there
      • gumroad-logo-retina
    • GumRoad as being built in a weekend – not competent enough for him to do no-code
      • Ben argued it was easy to do in no-code but they’re each discussing the same thing from different experiences
    • Queries on data for code – tools like Clay/Retool where you can work together – can run queries easily
      • No-coder does query and can recognize it to manipulate
    • Powerful for on-code is git and version controls – clear log of security, feedback, quality of code
      • Apply it to other things – pull requests/merge (conflicts)/conflicts in document setting on Notion, for instance
      • 100+ tutorials in MakerPad now – what’s interesting or grab attention
    • No-code as Patreon/Cameo/Airbnb/Uber where the overhead for coding sucks so much value from (Patreon at $30-40mln burn)
      • Creator would be interesting with price-motivating factors because you could have a more affordable option
      • “What’s the point of trying if I can’t even get to the ceiling?”
      • Meetup clone – need the “this is how you build it” – go look at the tutorials
    • Not enough answers for “Where can it go?” because they haven’t seen enough
  • Niccolo De Masi (@niccolodemasi), CEO and Chairman at Glu Mobile (20min VC 2/18/16)
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    • Kendall and Kylie game (#1 at app store at time), Kim K game, Deer Hunter and others
    • Was CEO at Hands on Mobile as well as CEO at Monstermob Group Plc
    • No money to be made in games in 2003 because they were for feature films, polyphonic, true tracks and he ran a public co before selling in 2007
      • Raised money to get bid for Glu from Hands on Mobile but got a call from Egahn Zander to transition to paid from f2p as CEO
      • Original IP value with games specifically for mobile on hardware
    • How will you make money in late-stage startup for future? Next year or two vs past.
      • Forward looking and professional managers – no founders anymore. Built from 350-850 people.
    • Moore’s Law as quite predictable but believes there are different models, utilities, and price models
      • Last gen console power in pockets now
    • Barometer of quarterly calls driving placements and interim 6 week calls for how they’re doing
      • If transparent in bad times, you may have quick punishment vs window-dressing
      • Rewarded more quickly in the upside, as well – private markets vs public markets
    • New startups as worth more than incumbents – bay as more regular here
      • Well ahead in private markets compared to public markets (his counter – at least they have earnings)
    • No BD or CorpDev – scour market and wait for inbounds of compellingly priced assets (often distressed), significant private markets
      • When Glu is $6-7, they can pick up companies easily but not so much at $2-4
      • Savings to be had for core customers when they have scale within Glu (mentioned PlayFirst)
      • “retirement community for young people” – startups subsidized, food, clothing and sharing app
    • By 2020 – more discipline in different sectors potentially – overvalued will have to come in line
      • King that was acquired by Activision Blizzard – consolidation forced by VC funding and people flow
    • Better to be #1 in smaller market than #10 in a larger one – be great w/ you’re good at
  • Tim Draper (@timdraper), founding partner at Draper Associates and DFJ (20min VC 2/22/16)
    logo-color

    • Original suggestion for viral marketing in web-based email to geometrically spread an Internet product to its market
      • Standard marketing technique now
    • EE at Stanford before going to Apollo Computer as assistant to President before HBS
      • Came out and wanted to be a VC (grandpa/father both were VCs and didn’t want to do it) – wanted to be a consultant / cheerleader
      • Helped him having an entrepreneurial base but some can certainly do it if it’s your goal
    • Borrowed money from gov to get started – knocked on doors with software on them
      • Most VCs needed others to help fund a company so they worked together – moreso now for angels, but not necessarily VC because of money
      • VC has gone global and has enjoyed that expansion – affecting the whole industry
    • His son’s accelerator, Boost, focusing so they can accelerate any business – he enjoys investing in 2-3 people with a good mission
      • Get people set up in the right way – medical, eshares, network accounting, and other operational methods
    • Favorite pitch – Nicholas Zenstrom at Skyper – most smooth, effective way and he’d agreed before calling and changing business model
      • Enthusiastic, quiet confidence for the enormous successes – Robin Lee (Baidu), Hotmail’s founder, Martin Everhart (Tesla)
    • Draper Uni of Heroes (entrepreneurs/founders) creating school during crash for better people
      • Give these people the confidence + tools while ridding them of shielding
      • DraperUniversity and StartupU – great marketing for school
    • Bitcoin interesting for a year ahead of the time, and then post-Mt Gox hack it went down only 20% so he jumped in
      • Micropayments, fees in journalism and podcasting as well as ending credits and cross-country
    • Enjoys hearing Andreesen, Moritz, McClure at 500 Startups, Plug-n-Play as first incubator, Ron Conway
    • Reflects on The Startup Game (his father’s) and Rothschild’s Bionomics and concept of evolution of econ and bio
    • Recent investment Laurel & Wolfe (interior decorating as best furniture for crowdsourcing) – closed update Dec ’19
    • Also invested in Favor, marketplace food delivery – acquired by HE Butt Grocery
  • Brandon Deer (@bdeer26), VP of Ops & Strategy at UIPath (20min VC 12/20/19)
    og-image-orange

    • Using RPA combined with business processes for automation
    • Using Gary Kasparov’s loss to IBM in chess before saying it’s no longer a chess or human – combination where average + average is optimum
    • Having growth and breaking things
  • Wharton Moneyball, Ken Pomeroy and Brian Burke (@bburkeespn) (Wharton XM)
    • Discussing the biggest predictors, NCAA basketball or in football
    • Pomeroy and how he’s adjusted his football predictions

If You’re Not Sure, Ask (Notes from Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2019) March 26, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, social, sports, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Hopefully everyone is staying safe in this current environment of CoVid19. A wild start to the year and March, especially. Seems prescient to identify those of this week of notes, especially with Domm at Fast trying to make things easier/painless in checkouts for ecommerce, Iman at Incredible Health trying to gain power for nurses and the healthcare workers on the front lines, as well as the investment questions we should be asking with Rob Carver and Meb Faber.

Before jumping in, though, I just wanted to reiterate something I’d heard in a few times across forums/channels and communities I participate in – just ask if you have a question or hesitating! It’ll be worth it – or you’ll be in the same position you’re in now. Social interaction and discussion will be key in how we come out better than where we started. I implore you – ASK. Anyone. Hope you enjoy!

  • Domm (@domm) Holland, founder and CEO of Fast (20min VC 11/15/19)
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    • Raised seed round from Jan Hammer at Index, Susa, Kleiner Perkins, Global Founders and angels (Inc Harry)
    • Director at Tap Tins and CEO/Founder at Tows
    • Introduced at 15, started programming and in Australia when it wasn’t cool, building was what he enjoyed
      • Had a large startup in Australia for a bit
      • Wife/him were in the hospital looking after son/daughter and he was home with the wife’s grandmother when she couldn’t order
        • Forgot her password and wouldn’t take credit card because of arbitrary string – pw-less solution, auth as simple solution
        • Put it on ProductHunt and it was #2 for the day
      • Doesn’t make sense that customers can’t move between businesses with their authentication
    • Ran out of money in a legal battle with Tows – $17mln that government decided to not pay
    • Many people don’t want to solve the problem – they do band-aid fixes, complex solutions
      • Build network of independent contractors of tow trucks
    • He just looks at what he’s doing as solving problems, solutions – Stripe gave businesses the infrastructure to process credit card payments
      • Built critical infrastructure that others didn’t have – similar to authentication, Shopify, etc
    • Everyone has been building payment, authentication, registration forms all first-party and customer tokens
      • Alternative business models and sharing data conflicts with their independence
    • Deciding to be SF-based – he only has certain hours in a day, but limited output and larger market and tech companies
      • People in SF value equity far more since Australia has issues with company stock and issuing options
      • 50, 100, 150 bp in SF to make it worthwhile
    • Had done an angel round of $600k Australian, ~$400k to continue product development and areas he didn’t have expertise in
      • Put out job ad for remote role thinking they’d get 1 or 2, had a fantastic applicant from Nigeria for talent
      • Money was so much less than what was budgeted – average earnings, paying 50% above market and fantastic employee
        • So much so, they have 10 employees there – Nigeria with 190 million people, remote and solid advocates
      • Managing engineers in person/remote are similar anyhow – adjusts his time zone to them, checks in to each daily
      • Structured time for functional areas and 15min calls to go over work regularly
    • His differentiator is speed, time – act promptly, efficiently and doing things early by operating in that manner
      • Walks 3-4 miles through Tenderloin in SF to make sure he sees inaction as a reminder
    • Thirst for knowledge – difficult to not come across new things (Twitter as a tool for exposure to people, tools)
  • Frank Fiume (@frankfiume), Founder and CEO of i9 Sports (Wharton XM)
    • Talking about burnout – body’s anticipation of requiring a form of change
      • Entrepreneur burnout – results not meeting expectations for an extended period of time
    • Using behavior tests to filter out the people who may be too similar once you’re looking to hire for expansion
      • He made mistake of hiring people he liked and matched with, as opposed to those that he needed
  • Meb Faber (@mebfaber), founder of Cambria Investments on The Road Less Traveled (Resolve’s Gestalt University, ep.05 6/27/19)
    image1

    • Discussing with Adam about his bs meter – how crazy it is to be overweight US equities
    • Canada is worse – 86% of advisors
    • Global allocation and strategy – always keeping files on board for ETF, not sure when they are needed or will be used
    • Launching 2006 with trend following paper and opening ETFs as broadly better managed strategy/fee structure
      • Agnostic – just wants to offer best client experience, strategy
      • Holding for long periods as how the strategy should be assessed, not weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly
        • Managers tough to judge on this long time frame
    • Being on call with asset managers where they ask what the best funds are – why? So to avoid them?
    • Currently, tax efficient in emerging small/medium cap for long-term 15+ years
    • Market cap as terrible way to weight portfolio – as you select highest cap-weighted company, they don’t often stay there
  • Jon & Justin, cofounders of Transistor.fm (Build Your SaaS – bootstrapping in 2019, 11/26/19)
    transistor_social

    • Building and looking at Transistor.fm and other podcasts
    • Dropping the revenue numbers on Baremetrics – not just competitors, but eventually there won’t be 50% mom growth
  • Mythology Manager (Marketing Matters)
    • Marvel and having a different marketing aspect for big films and otherwise
    • Different projects and input for actors/characters
  • Rob Carver (@investingidiocy), Systematic Money, author (ReSolve’s Gestalt U ep. 03, 5/9/19)
    • Discussing different risk metrics – hard to predict or calculate Sharpe ratios so he assumes they’re the same, often
      • Sharpe as primary vs secondary metric – meta-factor
    • Construction of portfolio as time frame and strategy – used to start with $100k (first book), most recent book with $500 capital
    • Performing out of sample vs in sample – binary strategy vs weighting
    • If you don’t select a strategy, you’re biased against it – “Three Judases”
      • Properly keeping strategies in the files/repo to backcheck (if you get rid of some that you’ve used and got out of, others can’t replicate)
      • Proper weighting would be signals that activate / de-activate strategies, maybe keeping the ones above a threshold
    • Private equity and private assets discussions – what’s optimum? 1, 2, 10, 50, 100? Take on risks for this, should be rewarded appropriately.
      • Is it 5, 10% of portfolio? Size matters and type of assets. Mentions GE as having a bunch of minor bets on the private side with more liquidity.’
  • Beth Hendler-Grunt, President and Founder at Next Great Step (Career Change, Wharton XM)
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    • College attendees going after internships early – not just through career fairs
      • Not everything career-wise is linear, can be creative
    • Portfolio & value add – “What happens if you didn’t return tomorrow, next week, etc…?”
  • Iman Abuzeid (@imanabuzeid), CEO and founder Incredible Health (a16z 11/28/19)
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    • Nursing Today, From the Bedside and Beyond
    • 2018 Biggest industry in terms of number of workers – clinical workers are 60% nurses – 3million of them
      • Regulated in California where the ratio is 5 patients to 1 nurse
      • Beyond 12 hour shift, 2.5x more likely to make medication errors – documentation as well
    • Shortage of faculty, nurses and all cities – also pays well, compensation-wise (California $100k, SF $140k, LA $120k)
      • Magnate certified is hospitals with majority of nurses bachelors recipients
      • When overstaffed, higher cost of overtime to contractors and less patients (in a thin margin business of hospitals, ~3%)
    • Talent / HR teams as inefficiency across the board – haven’t changed since ’90s
      • Tech tools don’t work for specialization/unique cases – job platforms are just ziprecruiter, indeed, LinkedIn but not matching certs/degrees
      • If you’re trying to fill oncology nurse, CEO and sales – one horizontal platform vs vertical platform
    • Most healthcare workers aren’t on LI, search and discovery is hard and fields aren’t specific enough, InMail response is < 10%
      • Narrow vertical, one job description and complexity is enormous – takes level of focus and optimization to add value to healthcare system/nurses
      • Incredible Health: Employers apply to talent, automated screening of certs/licenses/experience/skills with tech, custom matching
    • Hospital/health systems are able to fill positions in < 30 days when average is 90+ days – topline benefit
      • Churning nurses costs more on patients, complex environments for matching, high-stakes in retention (moreso than others)
      • 20% turnover with tight labor market – overworked, burnt out, better staffed, commute times, 90% women, higher pay
      • Hired in 11 days – have their act together and higher employee engagement
    • Hospital recruiters have a 7 day countdown for interview requests, scarcity for competitive nurses
      • Only platform that nurses get to make their profile and sit back after for interviews

Love Hearing Some Aspirations (Notes from Oct 14 – Oct 20, 2019) December 19, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, NLP, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Happy holidays, everyone! Hopefully you’re staying warm/dry – whether that’s inside or just generally in a better location. I’ll say I already wish that I purchased into that ski cabin for the holiday since we’ve had a bunch of rain over the last few weeks in the bay area and now fresh powder in the Sierras. But alas, I did not. Next time, next time.

I’m going to keep this brief, but primarily because I have fallen behind in writing and it pains me weekly. Habits break and that may need to be bumped up in the new year – try out substack or something similar. But, I think I’m finally going to launch something that I’ve been meaning to build. CV / Image recognition sourcing into a database to keep track of something that plays a prominent role for many. We’ll see if I can get the prototype usable and I’ll update here.

Aspirations – I love talking and listening to people who have big dreams. I think there are many who hold themselves back for all kinds of reasons. If I catch wind or hear it, I will push you to start – something, anything – for your sake. It’s rewarding to have to dive in and try it out. Maybe it falls off after 6 months. Maybe you run out of money that you allotted to the side. Maybe, you succeed. Or learn  enough to accidentally fail upwards into a better / concrete idea. I hope for it all when people have these ideas. It’s inspiring – helps me go through my own models for how I interpret my world if I have to wrap my head around how friends/colleagues/Tweeps view their own. And how things can become better. Ultimately, that’s what we’re trying to do with many ideas. Is it a cool new thing? Is it something you wish you had? Is it an observation that you want to test? Build. You won’t regret it if you don’t in the grand scheme, but if it’s a big enough itch, it’s worth the learning experience in a world where not enough of us do (but it’s not for a lack of time).

Hope you enjoy the notes.

  • Patrick / Raamayan, Cofounder of Unify (Wharton XM)
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    • Global meditation, achieving state of flow
      • Could be gym, yoga, prayer, running
    • If you have an hour, you have 15 minutes
  • Brianne Kimmel (@briannekimmel), Worklife Ventures (20min VC 10/14/19)
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    • Backed by Andreesen, Chris Dixon, Zoom’s Eric Yuan, and friends Alexis Ohanian, Garry Tan, Matt Mazzeo
    • Teaching General Assembly while operating in performance/growth marketing role at Expedia before Head of Social Media
      • Go-to marketing bootcamp (SaaS school now)
      • SaaS school taught my brand name heads at SaaS top places
    • Started with $25-50k angel checks in Webflow, Voiceflow, Airgarage and built a track record
      • Wanted to build a SaaS-fund to focus on go-to-market from bottoms-up
      • Enjoys building and structuring companies to get into the Venture-sized outcomes
      • Having a fund that’s open enough to maybe do private equity after stuck between $3-5mn ARR
    • Optionality for early stage, inflection points, maybe getting growth PM to scale into CEO
      • $150k checks incrementally grown from $25k
    • Proliferation of funds and capital – investing from own, micro-VC and angels platforms
      • Scouting for VC fund – operators at hot tech company
      • AngelList and Carta as platforms for own angel funds or boutique arrangements (flexibility with checks, numbers, still operate)
    • Celebrities/athletes using investments in startups to match their brand or expand it
      • Intersection of work and life – seeing Faire and Shopify give access to a huge new audience
    • Angels with leverage in cap table – “perfect one” and she grooms founders for this
    • Worklife – services and programs to unlock human potential at scale
      • Hypevsaas – traditional language for b2b is dead, according to her
      • Great saas being built by operators spinning out of consumer tech (Airbnb, Coinbase, Uber)
        • Scaling too quickly where they end up building their own tools before open sourcing or monetizing
      • With self-serve SaaS companies, many APIs and workflow tools, are easy to build – what’s the competitive advantage
        • Your access to tech, building closed products (specific users in line with product vision)
      • Opposite of Hypevsaas as “Scrappy SaaS” – going away slowly, race similar to consumer product for paid marketing
        • Freemium to quickly launch/build but products too easy – race for free users and attempt to monetize later
        • Mirrors side hustle or application as experiment with a possible traction
    • Consumer-grade experiments where users pay from day one – mentioned Superhuman and Rahul’s talk
      • SaaS school discussion about video game design and hook
    • Pace as most recent investment – accessing software with lower monthly rate because they access the contracts
  • Justin Kan (@justinkan), Founder / CEO of Atrium (20min VC 6/21/19)
    atriumlts

    • Full-service corporate law firm for startups
    • Started in 2004 with online calendar a la Gcalendar called Keeko, got into YC
      • Failed and sold it on ebay eventually
    • Then started Justin.tv – terrible idea that mostly failed and eventually made it into a streaming site to do Twitch
      • Sold in 2014 to Amazon, started another company called Exec in 2015 – errand service
      • Became a partner at YC but realized after a few years that an investor full-time wasn’t for him
      • Forced, as a startup founder, to learn things (hadn’t been learning as an investor)
    • 2017 – remembered how painful it was learning things – thinking of ideas
      • Conversation with a partner at a law firm in the city – asked her why they didn’t use any tech themselves
      • Full-stack corporate law firm in US – high growth companies that they’re building for last 2 years
    • Had used legal services no matter what they had – big transactions pay attorneys regardless, stable market
      • Will exist in a downturn because things don’t just stop
    • Remembered that every summer at the start of his startups, he would want to quit – think of new ideas or new things
      • Once out, he’d think he didn’t want to do it again, until it brought him back
      • First 3 months – thought he was great, figured it out due to 10 years’ experience, until stress came back
        • 6 months of stressful period – figured it out that he was still fine, reputation/old job
        • Self-improvement and growth had to come from culture
    • Hard to detach yourself from company as entrepreneur
      • Has attachments and notifications to make sure that he’s being present
      • Having goals in life, company, entrepreneur – board game metaphor – friends play and being engaged
      • Put away a game – do you remember or care what happened?
    • Started seeing a therapist 7 years prior – coach for dealing and discovering about what you’re going through
      • Cathartic, in his opinion – not alone and can talk to people
      • 15 Commitments of Conscious Leadership, Steve from Reddit
        • Radical responsibility – nobody else will come to save you, nobody to blame
        • Radical curiosity – whenever a new situation comes up, you approach it with what you’re supposed to learn
    • Don’t have to suffer for doing a start-up – not saying “Don’t work hard”
      • Building up skills, expectation for suffering isn’t the case
      • Atomic Habits by James Clear for him following working out each day
    • Zone of Genius – cares and loves to focus on, delegate rest
      • At Atrium, focus on business strategy, selling, culture
      • Build the team for the rest of it
    • Much better at recognizing patterns after investing 100 companies
      • Implementing in company, business models and market dynamics
      • Bad – investor attitude (approached Atrium like this)
    • Atrium – up to 150 employees in SF now – happy and proud for the culture and growth
  • Eric Kinariwala (@ekinariwala), founder / CEO at Capsule (DealMakers 10/15/19)
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    • Rebuilding pharmacy from inside out – raised $270mn from TCV, Thrive Capital, Sound Ventures, Virgin Group, M13
    • Wharton undergrad, network from there as financial services, banking and decided to go to west coast – Stanford
      • Started at Bain Capital in Boston after graduating – worked in a hedge fund group investing
        • Retail, healthcare, tech – blending framework around business strategy, what makes it a good business
        • Judging management and the synergies – learning how to invest, as well
      • Making right judgment calls – tight feedback loops
    • For Capsule, had moved back to NY, got a headache – called doctor and had a prescription ordered
      • Pharmacy is $350bn – most frequent interaction in healthcare
      • 2nd largest category of retail – 70k stores
      • Got headache and went to go pick up his meds but couldn’t find it, then they were out of stock and it was awful
    • Hard to get advice from the pharmacy, don’t know the price until they go to pay
    • Everybody touching the pharmacy has a headache, typically
    • 3 pillars of Capsule: modern technology platform, emotionally resonant brand, pharmacy how your mom would treat you
      • Prototypical pharmacist as founder, 2nd was highly experienced technologist, 3rd woman that spent building consumer brands
    • Business model – “10x better” than current existing – technologically enabled pharmacy – app with 5 pieces of information
      • 2 hour delivery windows, know price of medication, doctors know what you’re doing
      • Why are there so many pharmacies? Put money spent on rent back into beautiful design and technology to be seamless
    • Launched in 2016, first customer in May – first challenges in early days
      • Strong word-of-mouth from friends, doctors who had learned about Capsule – telling patients and vice versa
      • Early pharmacist was well-versed in regulatory environment for anything that could’ve been broken
    • He had raised in May ’15 to get started – raised $70 million to start
      • Ideal profile / entire business model needs to be aligned with values: objectives, values, strategy and metric
      • Asking to join and leaders need to have alignment in the same way – even the board – share vision and how / why you operate
    • Team is bigger than 250 full-time, all in NYC now – encouraging people to read ahead of joining, also
      • Checklist Manifesto, On Wings of Eagles, Danny Meyer’s Setting the Table, and Who by Dan [Geoff?] Smartt
    • For the future of Capsule – most important thing in your family’s life as healthcare (although I’d argue bank or something)
      • 5x more pharmacy visits than doctor (sheesh) – wants to make it mobile-first and on the home page of phone
    • Piece of advice for his first day: be more confident earlier
  • Gimlet 1: How to Not Pitch a Billionaire (Startup Podcast 4/5/14)
    gimlet-and-spotify

    • Pitching Chris Sacca – meeting at a hole-in-the-wall sushi place for lunch in LA
      • Deck as a crutch and did it outside the lunch – no slides
      • Most people consume audio in radio and are leaving to digital – audio dashboard, podcasts music all there
      • Wants to start company for the content for moving into the digital future
      • One question he asked: what’s the unfair advantage? Explained how to make money (ads, listeners)
        • Freemium – offer an extra for the listeners who want to pay.
        • He answered: making freemium model work – had to tighten it up
      • Chris Sacca – took 2 minutes and did the pitch
        • People willing to pay for this stuff – Planet Money where they gave $600k to buy tshirt with our logo
          • Integrated directly that we can replicate
        • $1.5mn to buy 3-4 guys for podcasts in next 12 months, can get to 300-400k net subscribers
          • Can get to breakeven on ads alone, CPMs where they are – more integration and episodes will be ultimately scale
          • 12-15 podcasts and we can do it
      • Then countered with the audio is a niche market – nonprofit and audio moving toward shorter content
    • Met him on a Planet Money story when he was going over patent system and how it was slowing innovation
    • Strategy/ideas at Google, writing seed investment check in PhotoBucket – didn’t have it, though
      • Just $50k and wrote 2 credit card checks – enjoyed the feeling so much he left Google
      • First investment was in a colleague, Evan Williams, for Twitter as a full-time angel
        • Wrote the check for $25k – was a lot of cash to him, needed it to work – wanted to help out, evangelist
        • Started buying more shares and doubling – believed in the company
    • Kickstarter, Uber, Instagram, etc… looks hard at the conviction of the success
      • Missed on DropBox (Gdrive was going to crush them), Airbnb (someone will get raped or murdered, can’t work)
    • Told him to come back, tighten the pitch and then do it for Chris’ partner Matt who was from the media world
  • Pankaj Risbood (@risbood), founder at Zendrive
    logo_vertical-drkgry2x

    • Discussing leveraging data and making it a platform instead of an app
      • Dealing with partners to ensure they can improve value
    • Mission Street project – 6 months driver flow before and then after shutting down
      • Reducing poor driving / improve driver safety and it was fairly obvious
    • Can deploy this in the form for insurances, as well
  • Jacqueline Courtney (@jac_courtney), Founder of Nearly Newlywed (Wharton XM)
    47315_0

    • Pitching on Shark Tank to grab attention
    • Starting as seeing option in fashion tech for underserved market
    • Tough for Amazon to compete because of the marketplace factor and users are only in for 1 sale, 1 wedding
      • Taking 40% of the sale but trying to maximize the amount of cost for many
      • Realized photos that were posed / models with dresses didn’t sell as well as real wedding photos
        • Started asking customers for them this way
  • Noah Auerbahn (@noahauerbahn), co-founder and CEO of Robin Healthcare (Lindzanity 10/2/19)
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    • Robin as virtual scribe that sits on doctors desks and records video/audio from room – sits in exam room
      • Started with orthopedic physicians – 6 sub-specialties and they cover all of them so far
    • Met Gary, Howard’s partner, when Noah was 21 and starting first company – ExtraBucks (cash back coupons)
      • Came up with at dorms in USC, raised enough money to move to SD with his cofounders
      • Were cash flow positive and had Gary and Alex as advisors – realized he didn’t want to be in ecommerce forever
        • Decided to sell and exit once they questioned it – had raised around $1million, no venture
    • Believed college as what you make of it – did entrepreneurship / business in undergrad but taking it and questioning how to apply it
    • Education, energy, and health were the lists of what he thought may have the most impact – health was the biggest for him
      • He would hire MIT PhD and UCLA MD to come to his office and tutor him – “pretty affordable, like $70/hr” to teach at pace you want
      • He wanted massive optionality within healthcare – not just ecommerce, if he wanted to do pharma, biotech, find the right entry point
      • 100s of research posts, 100s of conversations, started going to conferences (where he met his cofounder)
    • Entire system – center of the system is the exam room – decisions get made there, so he wanted to build something interesting inside of that room
      • Patient, doctor, and EMR (not interested in sharing data)
        • Found out that there was a scribe in 5% of rooms and he asked why they aren’t remote or something
        • Lower burnout rates, better throughput and service, notes/quality control could have issues
        • Decided to tool in a good UX, ML additionally
    • Wanted to do something big, had to raise money eventually but “How many assumptions could he kill or the idea before saving time?”
      • First paying customer, had $40k, webcams, notes (his cofounder doing them), device streaming and did it at his mom’s vet clinic (non-HIPAA)
        • Built own tech, had some handful of paying customers – had taken some friends/family $ that missed on his first company and then real
      • Didn’t anticipate hardware but couldn’t find something that could be used for solving this
        • Security cams aren’t great because of acoustic but could stream all the time
        • Conference ones which aren’t designed to run all the time – ran own software on it, but lot of work to keep it working all the time
        • Sonos speaker guys were helpful in producing what they ended up building (optional video)
    • Device has about 2% of people where they don’t consent – video/audio and can be more in tune with the patient
    • Having offices in SD, Berkeley (his reverse commute from SF) and Austin – where most pre-med scribes are for them
      • Mentioned 30% Stanford Med graduates don’t end up as doctors – go into tech
  • Morgan Housel, co-founder of Collaborative Fund (Lindzanity, 10/9/19)
    deuobz-u8aarwgs

    • Howard’s favorite thinker/writer/storyteller and his interesting career arch – key to writing is writing
    • Effective long-form is rough but when it’s good, it’s bar-belled (10 seconds is better than longer reading)
      • Only books he got through were Shoe Dogs and Agassi’s book – Munger’s “Don’t be burdened by bad books”
    • Cramer’s “Confessions of a Street Addict” as good, as well
      • Coming from nowhere, knew how to write briefly, Howard as superfan – first modern financial professional that had personality
      • Howard feels like it’s an underachievement – Morgan said he’s not a great investor – so much trust built up that he should be running a massive firm
      • Access to people, financial celebrity
    • Fascinated by Motley Fool – when Morgan had hedge fund, had CNBC but Dave and Tom Gardner – hats on, promotional and StockTwit before
      • Went for mom and pops – tremendous marketers, but made mistakes
    • 2007 – dawn of financial disaster, studying econ at USC (his plan was p/e and ib) but finance was terrible
      • Didn’t think highly of Motley Fool – had gone through Yahoo finance boards and saw his friend, Sham Gad, at USC was writing for them
      • Thought he’d do Motley Fool shortly as contract, couple months, and was writing an article a day – (plan was initially p/e but they couldn’t bring him on)
      • For him, he was supposed to be banking industry, and writing other stuff as well – economy and macro issues (unemployment, fed reserve, budgets)
      • No explanation for decisions being rational – before, during, after no good explanations – psychology of investing
    • Psychology of investing will always be there – different layers of edge and vs technical side – can be base of pyramid
      • Smartest analyst or data miner but without greed/fear, nothing would matter (Howard moving to angel – forced to go with it, prices were his weakness)
    • Time split for Howard – 50/50 between public/priv (prices keep him up to date on news)
      • Selling at Uber at $10bn because he wasn’t allowed to sell at $1bn – he was in with David Cohen’s $4mn fund, $50k at $4mn valuation, so he had $2k
      • Sold a lot early and then sold at $40bn and that’s where it is now – public would’ve been very different
    • New banks may be what Andreesen is doing – start as VC & get larger, for next 20 years
      • Citadel starting as hedge fund from dorm and now top-tier investment bank, doing everything – exchange, conglomerate
      • Partnership that can have trading stocks, wealth management, lean beast with trust/access – 2.5% fund without GS
      • Private becoming so large because of the liquidity area there
    • Josh as being equally funny and smart, not caring about markets – gave a sponsor to Morgan and Jesse Livermore (pseudo) and Twitter explodes
      • Motley Fool for 10 years, contractor for 7 years – LA first and then Seattle, then Alexandria for 3 years – only time he’s had a desk and office
      • Wife went to grad school in Baltimore to move them out that way
      • Motley Fool as bigger than you think – P/E mistake, big tool and screwups to learn a lot about mistakes
        • Joining Collaborative Funds (Craig Shapiro splitting time between NYC and SF) was easiest decision, but leaving MF was hardest of his life
    • What really can set you apart is not writing a check anymore – everyone has a checkbook
      • What do people know about you? What do you stand for? What is your vision?
      • If he could write what they wanted to read, it would draw back some attention to what they’re doing and standing behind.
    • Went to plenty of conferences, 4-5 a year and learned to speak – had a CFA Institute where he was the interviewer
      • Did keynotes for Motley Fool, video made it to Washington Speakers Bureau and started to do that
      • Several dozen talks a year now – wasn’t the plan original (2016 as first year)
        • Doesn’t sketch out an idea, write out an outline – just knows that he enjoys some part and how to contextualize it
    • Spends majority of his time going on walks to “write” – tough for him to grind the gears
      • 95% of his investing is house, checking acct and 3 Vanguards funds – saving dollar-cost-averaging there, since he isn’t really writing checks
      • Thinking about “enough” – 8% is fine, 10% would be nice but not worth stressing (says opposite of type A)
        • Odds are low to beat market, same with running – 3 miles is enough for him, doesn’t need to do half marathon
        • Biking for 1 – 2 hours, knows the burn, won’t need to do more
      • Why Howard says Andreesen’s model likely to make a difference
        • For Howard – indexing, 90% there and 10% to try to beat
      • If it bothers you, why are you torturing yourself? If you need to scratch the itch, take a small enough.
      • Hates idea that Vanguard gets to pick the 500 companies for him, not a fan of $5mln raise if you can do on $1mln
        • Similar to Risk gm – don’t start Europe, east Aus is better
    • Indexing as Robinhood vs Vanguard – somewhere in between (not robo), but just de-selecting the companies you may not want to invest in
      • Feel better, maybe hold on more during drawdowns – incentivize riding the wave
      • Example from Morgan about mom hating Monsanto (then he pointed out she owned some – she wanted to sell)

What’s Important for the Business (Notes from Sep. 16 – 22, 2019) November 5, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, questions, social, training, Uncategorized.
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Ah, the art of learning. What can you absorb in the time that you allotted? Hopefully it was the good stuff, the one you can apply and remember. We’re not going to retain it all – far from it. Different surveys and studies will say between 10-30%, depending if you’re reading, listening, seeing things. Repetition, talking about details or applying what you’re picking up can improve those numbers – and it’s why there is still a ton of money being raised/made on improving it (Blinkist, Anki, Quizlet, rise of audio books and podcasts). This is all without bringing in the idea that the internet has allowed such a flood of ideas that opposing ones can exist simultaneously, persisting through its strong supporters. So, if you’re not doing research and coming to your own conclusion, it’s likely to be lead to whichever way you resonate with someone/something most (or first).

In reading through Constellation Software President’s letters to shareholders, you see a valiant attempt at conveying how he, executives and board members looked at the business health for the year – and refreshingly so, not explicitly through rose-tinted glasses. He critiques and suggests an option that reversion to the mean is possible based on a lower adjusted net income and cash flow from operating activities per share. Then he went through the shareholders returns on invested capital, average invested capital, and questioned the organic net revenue growth’s performance (as he notes that this is a primary core to the main metric for their performance: ROIC+OGr). Once he goes through the metric and it’s cash flow, he mentions that they’re looking to increase acquisitions, but the environment isn’t conducive to great values, so FCF may not be fully invested at attractive levels for the future. Then, he suggests a metric to cover this with a reasonable pattern, one less subject to shareholder alterations. Open to suggestions while he develops the reasoning for what another member has suggested for a good metric, he settles on FCF increase per share compared to average net income per share.

I loved his breakdown for the shareholders – mentioning half the shares trade for the year. He breaks it down simply as short-term, indexers, enterprising investors (including institutional, but also generally long-term, long-haul holders). He openly asks them to help find directors and members of the board and the difficulty that they saw initially after their IPO. The next paragraph was a big one, so I’ll include it:

Qualified and competent Directors are very rare, and not surprisingly, the track record of most boards is awful. According to the 2017 Hendrik Bessembinder study of approximately 26,000 stocks in the CRSP database, only 4% of the stocks generated all of the stock market’s return in excess of one-month T-Bills during the last 90 years. The other 96% of the stocks generated, in aggregate, the T-bill rate over that period. This means that 4% of boards oversaw all the long-term wealth creation by markets during that period. Even more disturbing, the boards for over 50% of public companies saw their businesses generate negative returns during their entire existence as public companies.

Wow. A) The recognition of wanting to be the best and provide a great board of directors for a long-time and B) genuine concern for the long-term view and suspicion of complacency arising. Both, I’d imagine, lead him to mention that vision / strategy are not necessarily courses of action – instead, perpetual objectives as the guiding point. Whether that’s seeking them out or maintaining what they had, he made sure it was top of mind. He sees that profitable VMS businesses may no longer come to be acquirable, and that he’s on the lookout for other opportunities – without them being attractive, though, he’d responsibly return FCF to investors.

Interestingly, he looked for Constellation to be devoid of “sycophants, mercenaries and spin-doctors” and wanted it to be a place where meritocratic results bring in “entrepreneurs and corporate refugees to invest their lives and and their capital and thrive”. Quite the statement for a business of such magnitude, when, especially from the outside, many succumb to the former (hell, take a look at Tech Twitter these days and a complaint I’ve had is that people seem to be comfortable bouncing between 2-3 companies a year for 5, 8. 10+ years). I’d love to build something that sustained a drive through many levels of employees.

“I find there is no magic to managing and leading. If you are smart, work harder… treat people fairly, do not ask them to do anything would not or have not done, share the credit, keep learning and keep teaching, then pretty soon you have followers. If you make sure that the team members are energetic, intelligent, and ethical people….”

Yup. That’s the way to build a company. Find that and hold on. And then he finalizes with the board requirements (which I’ll include at the bottom).

Hope you enjoy the notes this week.

  • Mike Strasser (@mstrasser), Motiv ring founder (Wharton XM)
    • Talking about the ring and how he knew the wearable would work
  • Lee Thompson (@flashpacklee), Flashpack founder, Marketing on a Budget (Wharton XM)
    flash_pack_logo_block-1

    • Photo journalist for 15 years
    • Talking about creating a brand through pictures, story-boarding, ethos of brand
    • If you can’t tell what your hook / pitch is, probably won’t sell
    • Went on first date with his now-wife from Match, wouldn’t tell him a great business idea
      • Post-wine glasses, she had a business idea for 30+ year olds wanting to travel – friends having too much of a family/kids
      • Adventure travel company for solo travelers in 30s and 40s, not tours via bus and such
      • Next few dates were researching travel industry, setting up a business
    • Book trip as solo traveler, then have others that you are meeting everyone else
      • Boutique hotels, price points established and like-minded – typically well off in careers, cash-rich
    • Launched with $15k each, savings and jumped in
      • Nobody would spend $1k+ on trips for a company that had no reviews
      • Generated a lot of PR, did a lot of viral videos by responding to twitter hashtags
      • Spent on Google ads and lost lots of money – built the website
    • Took a trip to Egypt on a budget, “come to Jesus moment”
      • If I can get on top of that and take a picture (Christ the Redeemer picture of a workman doing damage repair)
      • Wanted to take a picture on top and took a selfie
  • Mehrdad Baghai, Alchemy Growth cofounder & CEO (Mastering Innovation)
    the-alchemy-of-growth-full-1-638

    • Boutique strategy advisory firm advising large companies on innovation strategies
    • Designing organization architecture for growth, 5-10 years
    • Active investor in tech and p/e spaces with Macquarie Group
    • Former partner at McKinsey leading Growth Practice and then 3 years as Exec Dir at CSIR, Australia’s national science agency
      • Dozens of new tech companies
    • Also launched High Resolves with his wife, Roya, in 2005
  • Fred Destin (@fdestin), GP at Accel (20min VC 1/18/16)
    logos_master_accel

    • Former partner at Atlas Venture working with Zoopla (public), Secret Escapes, Integral Ad Science, Dailymotion (acq by Orange), PriceMinister (acq by Rakuten)
    • Studied life as derivatives at Goldman Sachs, first team on credit derivatives
      • Securitization of movie rights, derivatives in Pacific region for about 7 years
      • Opted out when it went from risk hedging to arbitrages
    • Moved to Speed Ventures for investing at really early seed
    • Spending a lot of time hiring the best 1-10 executives because you can’t spend time getting this wrong
      • Take a model that worked in 1 city (like Deliveroo), scaling it to 30+ and got there in under 3 years old
        • Fit consumer model and offering for the ones – brought new kinds of service to non-delivery food
      • Seed companies failing because you hire something you don’t understand – wrong team kills the team
        • Second mistake – overestimating the things you can do in the time – reality doesn’t match
    • Setting arbitrary goals for not being worthy of being funded – most companies run out of money or come close, being patient and empathetic with founders
    • Investors need mental plasticity for adjusting expectations on what to best deliver
    • Founders feeling screwed over because it was never possible for them to communicate the right decisions being made
      • Mix of market difficulty or overambitious of timing – how to improve intimacy and mutual trust
    • He likes to spend 3-6 months knowing founders – wants to do strategic sessions, whiteboard issues how you would solve it – discovery and disagree
      • Can work through disagreements, see how people work collaboratively
      • Engineer a situation of tension – hiring / decision made, create it to see pushback
      • Could we do an 8 hour wine test / road test – can we banter and have a pleasant time being together (Boston to Montreal, London to South of France)
    • Needs to ensure performance and milestones, sounding board, interest of company / employees / customers and investor with fiduciary standards
      • Had to tell guys at Real3D and say that they couldn’t invest – told them early, though
      • Mentioned Boston VC that said he’s said “No” so often that he just fizzles out – Fred said he tries to give constructive feedback but not always
        • He used to send very detailed No emails but would receive replies about not understanding opportunity and pushback – called stupid or not getting it
        • Now he responds with “Busy with other opportunities”, but sometimes he has things fall through the cracks
    • Favorite book: Mastering Margarita, missing and saying No to successful opportunities – doesn’t rue or look back like that because portfolio co’s do well enough
      • Success measure – how long it takes for knowing (16 years for him), took 10-12 for success as investor
    • Wasn’t super excited about returning to London but was pleasantly surprised about how vibrant it was – still US is more tolerant about money and quicker pace
      • Competitors share, acquisitions are faster – Accel moves fast so it’s advantageous but not overall
      • Boston wants to import the well of technical talent and ML – hubs working together in Europe will improve it
  • Thirteen Minutes to the Moon
    • Episode 7: Michael Collins: Third Man
      • Command module pilot for the mission
      • Test pilot before being selected as an astronaut – 90% luck he landed in that role
      • Someone wrote to Eisenhower that the best option for selection for astronauts would be experimental test pilots because apt to new scenarios and flight
        • Compared to deep sea divers or others
      • Collins had been turned down the first time to supplement that first 7 – after a year of more experience, selected in class of 1963 with Aldrin
        • First flight was 1966 on Gemini X, rendezvous and docking maneuvers
        • Once LEO Gemini flights were successful, Apollo XI was announced in January 1969
        • July 16, 1969 – launch sequence day – was responsible for launching lunar module to turn it around from Saturn V rocket
      • Was an English major and just did guidance verbs/nouns memorization to control it
      • As they neared moon, they were on far side and lost contact with Houston
        • Takes back everything bad he ever said about MIT – accuracy of system was ridiculous, 3000 ft/s and only had 0.1 ft/s in any one direction error
        • If something went wrong for landing lunar module, Michael couldn’t change his speed but it’d be up to him to figure out what to do
        • Mathematicians were responsible for coming up with a list of 18 variations for problems and what to do – some they hadn’t trained for
      • He felt alone, awareness of being on the other side of the moon, solo after Aldrin and Armstrong picked up speed on their way down

 

CSI Board Role Search Criteria
THE ROLE
Thought Partner – Thought partner for senior leadership.
Long-term Orientation – Unfazed by short term pressure. Focused on CSI’s long-term issues.
Timeframe – Able to serve on the board for 20+ years.
Investment in CSI – Willing to make a significant equity investment in CSI, above and beyond board comp.
THE CANDIDATE
High Quality Business – Understands what constitutes a high quality business.
Autonomy -Appreciates the motivational power of autonomy, decentralisation.
Cultural Fit – Respects and gets along with the current senior CSI management as well as the board.
Ownership – Believes in the motivational power of equity ownership.
High Impact / Low Ego – Will intervene when necessary, contribute meaningfully, but not dominate discourse.
Out of Kitchen – Can resist the urge to get into the kitchen when there’s a chef already in there.
EXPERIENCE
Builder – Helped build or maintain (as a director, manager or major shareholder) a large
organisation (>1000 employees) over an extended period, while providing a superior
return to owners (ideally including employee owners).
Decentralized – Experience with a decentralised company (nice, not necessary).
Capital Allocation – Experience in a capital allocation role (nice, not necessary).
LIKELY BACKGROUND
Family owned business operator or director.
CEO / #2 for exceptional business.
Entrepreneur
SEARCH PATHS
Multi-generational family owned businesses with high ROIC within reach of our
network and ideally local to CSI (increases involvement, eases reference checks, more
likely to know CSI, decreases absenteeism).
High quality businesses with strong shareholder alignment.
Great capital allocators in the corporate world.
CEOs with great shareholder letters and high quality businesses.

Fostering a Community (Notes from Aug 26 – Sep 1, 2019) September 23, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, questions, social, Strategy, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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What a crazy couple of weeks! And it’s not likely to slow – I’ll give some more information behind that very shortly. Exciting new things on the horizon, though – and ones I’ll be proud to announce when I can. August provided a lot of clarity in direction – good because it wasn’t exactly restful.

I mentioned it in last week’s post, as well, but I’ve been hyper-aware of the people around me interacting, enjoying and laughing over commonalities. It’s at every level, though I peruse coffee shops far more often than other places. Interesting stories are almost expected. If you refer to my reading list, you’ll notice a new one, Dignity. As part of a book club, I was hesitant and unsure when it took the lead because of the topic – primarily drugs/poverty/downtrodden/unlucky collection as reported, but halfway through I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how much perspective Chris provides. I can’t help but draw that fixture of everyone has their own experiences that provide the lens through which we draw conclusions on everything else. Endless and it’s very tough to remove ourselves or step back – especially with things we’re unfamiliar with.

Ultimately, though, everyone wants to share their experiences with others – whether it’s some depth of despair, depression or building a community, religion, or hiring employees to work with or spending time for fun and adventure. We’re human. We spend time with other humans. There’s a reason we’ve survived this long in groups and why the solo artists end up in peril – this is completely generalized but in MY experience, I’d say I see a truth in this.

Kate Shillo, Director at Galvanize, mentioned her journey for Martha Stewart’s media company to Galvanize where they help businesses grow with their people. Morgan Dunbar, at Bendigo Partners, discussed his involvement in AIR – summit and conference for sharing ideas/businesses for financial services to hopefully rise all boats, as they say. Mike Vernal, at Sequoia Capital, went through how Facebook’s earlier years helped him with approaching problems and the finality of decisions – what they’ve fostered for the boards he is now a member of. He tries to understand the start-up and the founders view of the problem after a quick determination of if they know the idea enough. Others, which I only caught pieces of, had similar views.

I hope your community, whatever that may be, is productive and positive – helping you gain what you’d prefer from it.

  • Kate Shillo (@kshillo), Director at Galvanize Ventures (20min VC 1/13/16)
    gavalize-logo

    • Investing in hardware and future of IoT
    • Got an interview with Martha Stewart’s Omni Media and she was temping for her – living in NYC 2007
      • Would have an idea in her company – create, build & continue w/ mini incubators
      • She wishes Marthapedia was made – hasn’t done it yet
    • Wasn’t quite stimulated enough in 2007, she quit and bought a surfboard – 6 months later she was back in NYC
      • Had met Kenny Lerer (around in interviews) – met before Martha with an internet newspaper (Huff Post)
      • Took a huge pay cut to do some research on other startups as Kenny was on the chair for Huffington Post (~30 employees)
        • He was chair at Betaworks at that time, too
      • She was the human tester for Betaworks (only other one to test)
      • Helped launch Ken Lerer Ventures (Lerer Hippeau Ventures) as formalizing process for his angel investing
    • Help of having Huffington Post (sold in 2011) as starting propelled them into NYC market – unheard of at the time
      • Market down, nobody investing in seed – writing small checks at Lerer “Go by Betaworks and Lerer Ventures is there”
      • First content investment was Food 52
      • Consumer tech pics – paperless post, Warby Parker, Bottle Bar, BarkBox
    • Galvanize (continuous learning – helping businesses and their business grow – new archetype in higher ed)
      • Galvanize Ventures with 3 partners – all of elements to provide their startups
      • Early stage – small, idea from pre-seed to series A (seed process), reserving for follow-ons
      • Small markets like ATX, PHX, SLC to get in – coaching co’s along the way
    • 48 investments in 2 years
      • Consumer mobile-heavy so far, her excitement in hardware – starting in 2014 was IoT hotbed
    • Crowdfunding as a bit of advertising, validating customer interaction and capital as gravy – her opinion
      • Shipping product is usually a hurdle – many people don’t want to invest without seeing this
      • Reflecting on Lerer investments – seeing market share of her old portfolio companies
    • Size of fund is $10.2 mln, $100k checks for pre-seed, seed and series A – get priced out for series A
    • Favorite book: God of Small Things, misconception for VC: that it’s easy (no control for company sometimes but exciting when it works)
      • Sourcing vs existing portfolio co’s helping
    • Favorite apps: Moment app, Twodots (betaworks), Slash, Sunrise calendar, Pant, Wildcard and Venmo at the time
    • Recent investment: msg.ai empowering brands for messaging platforms ecommerce
  • Morgan Dunbar, partner at Bendigo Partners (FYI 8/5/19)
    86aeb71777442ba0eadc52ed226d20ee

    • Capital Market Space within FinTech as principal investors
    • Was mostly on sell-side for analytics on portfolio construction – with Citi Group in Tokyo in 2009 running Japanese equities
    • Bendigo – early stage fintech companies with bias on capital markets, retail, middle and back office
      • Advisor practice with institutional, private equity, large enterprise in capital marketers
      • Transaction advisory, operational consulting and strategy around fintech ecosystem
    • Bill Stevenson partner on AIR Summit – 2013 creation for invitation-only for senior buy/sell-side pros to discuss high-level themes
      • Alpha Innovation Required (AIR) – invite ~20 emerging fintech cos to speak to a use case for front office (alpha generative)
    • Traditional VCs have a fundamental lack of operational understanding in capital markets
      • Secondly, long sales cycle in businesses – thousands at enterprise level vs millions in consumer
      • Regulatory that can be scary without expertise
    • Artificial Intelligence as just replicating a process (as opposed to intelligent)
      • AIR focusing on people, organization, talent and cultural alpha
      • Tradition, trust, not new – center for innovation and trying to do something, be empowered for innovation and development
    • Google pushing into asset management other than cloud, data and analytics
      • Asset managers may start looking at Google like Bloomberg – help build portfolios, vendors to tap for alpha
    • If buy-side problem, then sell-side has a problem, fee compression (growth of passive) – active vs passive (value for performance)
      • Robos (whether or not they’re worth valuations) validated demographics looking for low-cost access with simple UI and intuitive
  • Mike Vernal (@mvernal), Partner at Sequoia Capital (20min VC 8/26/19)
    sequoia

    • Citizen, rideOS, Rockset, Threads & Houseparty board
    • Spent 8 years at Facebook as VP of Product
    • Sequoia – Brian, led A to join board for his roommate’s company and his former PM at Microsoft started a co in 2009 and Brian joined
      • Joined Scouts program early on
      • Had first child a week prior to 8 years at Facebook, took paternity leave to reflect
    • Really enjoyed Facebook first few years – tremendous energy and optimism to create something from nothing
      • Early stage founders in a garage for idealism and irrational energy, switched to Sequoia (been there 3 years)
    • Entrepreneurs that can explain entirety of business in 3-5 min, rest of meeting is the details of the pitch
      • Feedback cycle for great and enduring company – decision-making is a short or longer memo and reading through them
      • For his mistakes, thinking and writing and playing out future – each case was instinctually being interested but not trusting instincts
        • Try to be rational and analysis-driven
      • More importantly, internal conviction on a company, founding team and working on
      • If not at Sequoia, would he go work for that company?
    • Terminal and non-terminal decisions – once you’ve made it, you can’t make it again
      • Do something, if wrong, do it again – try to hire, realize mistake, hire again
        • Pick one, roll out to some, figure if it’s working or not, and iterating
      • Venture – most important is decisions – if you pass a round, you’re done maybe until next round
      • In operations, tempo and learning for decision-making
    • Bundling vs Unbundling – past 10 years will be unbundling of SaaS and best in breed
      • SaaS that are more niche – features as something larger, $1 or $2 / ee / mo
      • Thinks there will be a consolidation of the apps, incumbents that will integrate and put them all-in-one (Notion)
      • Meta-SaaS apps that will put them together as the market matures
      • SaaS as software, business software (maybe banks that are on-premise)
    • Book: 100 years of Solitude, almost every startup underprices their product
    • Time management is the challenge – constant battle, reading quickly and get the ones he finds most interesting
    • Verkada as most recent investment – can build a great experience
  • Kash Mathur (@kashmathur), COO of Chewse (Wharton XM)
    chewse-open-graph-e1559782200236

    • Tracy and cofounders starting it in LA originally, in 2011 before bringing it to SF for 500 Startups
    • Attracting Kash in 2016 as they were figuring out SF before relaunching LA
    • Corporate culture, enterprise dealing and owning the customer service – blended marketplace
      • Starting each executive, strategy board with a “One thing most people don’t know about me is…”
      • Connecting between people
    • Why they have connected Hosts for each enterprise – owning the location, service and whole process
      • Important value and differentiator from other catering companies
  • Linda Crawford, CEO of Helpshift (Wharton XM)
    helpshift-logo

    • Being named top 50 SaaS CEO of 2018, joining HelpShift after Salesforce
    • CCO (customer) at Optimizely, as well as Board Member at Demandwise
  • Rob Farmer, Independent Advisor Study and assets at Schwab (Wharton XM)
    • Talking about participants and customers

Your Experience is Your Own, Only (Notes from Aug 19 to Aug 25, 2019) September 10, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, gym, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, NLP, social, Strategy, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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I’ve been considering more and more about how my experiences are only mine. Especially when I feel like I don’t share them often. Working so much but not always discussing it with people outside of work (re: almost never). I was reminded of this while I met with a family member who I see roughly once a month or so. When she asks how work is or I mention I’m busy on days when she wants to meet, it often came with a “busy with a meeting at X but can do Y”. Never more. And almost always, I ask how her work is, and she divulges. So when we sat down for dinner and she point blank asked “I have 2 things: 1. Can you help me with something on my new phone? and 2. What is it actually that you do?” I chuckled because generally I don’t care to share that information – I really enjoy valuing start-ups and learning about the space / tech / finance / education changes, but other than high level stuff, rarely does anyone want to hear me talk extensively a la a podcast episode deep-dive or something. They don’t see the relevance, other than it being exciting for me. Same with when I was advising, same since launching the fund and all while working on project deployment in data science for others.

I strongly suggest reading through Colson Whitehead’s essay here about his version of New York City. How it’s interpreted. essay here

Another thing I read through today was Farnam Street’s blog post on asking seemingly simple questions that may be defined or determined by our experiences with those concepts. An example he uses: “What is a horse?” Try to think how we may answer this.
Power questions

 

  • AI in the Past, Present and Future (BDB 7/16/19)
    teradata-logo-social

    • Rod Bodkin, Tech Director at CTOs office in Google
      • Was with BigDataAnalytics, bought by Teradata and grew it from there
    • Grew Google after seeing the field advancing quickly, state of the art as evolving
    • First people to put Hadoop into production – Yahoo was too scared, single algorithm took weeks at the time
    • OpenAI put out state of art compute paper – 4 year paper, 300k X computation (double every 3.5 months)
    • For Google, evolution of cloud in the enterprise is a big deal – consumer side of Google as leading the way
      • Can just put data into BigQuery because of capacity and accessibility of data – increased production 4x on data science team
    • Big investments into Anthos – open source tech to enable cloud-native services in different clouds, GKE (Kubernetes)
      • Edge TPUs as 100x faster to compute a model vs traditional mobile CPU – TPU as accelerator chip for DL
      • CPU is completely general so less efficient
      • GPU has a boost over CPU but behind TPU accelerators (starting GPU chips, Tensor unit)
    • Kaggle Days and Google IO for cloud Pixel modeling and AutoML performing very well
    • Herrari’s book – 21 Problems for 21st Century
  • Tricia Han, CEO of Daily Burn (Wharton XM)
    51w1ctcdszl._sy355_

    • Community of like-minded fitness fanatics
    • Live 365 – 30min shows on working out, regulars
    • In survey, millenials said fitness #1 and health/wellness at #5
    • Fitness had about happiness equal to making $25k more

 

 

 

  • State and Future of Robotics, ML and Digital Celebs (Venture Stories, 8/8/19)
    ht6qfyjc_400x400

    • Michael Dempsey (@mhdempsey) – partner at Compound
    • Read, Listen, Write, Talk – Cunningham’s Law – share something with a strong opinion is likely to get responses
      • More value when shared publicly
    • Robotics, ML as cascading forward – robots broadly, initially – types, how to make them intelligent (2013)
      • Drones, hardware platform (DJI as leader), space and now as unsupervised or self-supervised learning
      • Deep dive on innovation for what he’s spent the last year or two – investments, as well
    • Women’s health as growing market for fertility and experience layer in healthcare system
      • Higher-end service around egg freezing (but was shattered by Tia founders), IVF or embryo screening
      • 2 investments for him already in the space, maybe more after
    • Strategic robot acquisition for Amazon, why now? Major companies in the space – he’s punted in that space, more investors.
      • Didn’t see meaningful differentiation in the space – didn’t see a company that had that from an investing side
      • Food was where he saw robotics as consistent – grew up in the industry
      • Really easy to get pilots but not for revenue – wants full-stack robotics company
      • Robots taking over entire industry – automated X / Y / Z (rebar, construction robotics)
      • Front of house and back of house retail (analytics, stocking)
    • Weird robot applications (in-home, manicures, old person help)
    • If company is built on algorithm being best, company probably won’t survive
      • Must talk to people doing operating – not just reading
      • Self-driving cars – spent time with Daniel Gruber, discussing local maximum and rules to write
        • If you can drive in NY, you can drive in SF, LA, etc…. 2007 DARPA challenge Waymo / Tesla / Cruise as result – path-planning
        • Intelligence approach – what are incentives / agents to accomplish in a car for end-to-end approach to scale
      • 1 model to move them all – enough compute that model can solve it (DL is direct function of this, for Google)
    • Investment in data labeling space – more people moving into production requires more people getting good data and filtering data
      • Larger data builds where it may cause $50-200mln per year to label but 50% is useless
      • Environmental impact and thinking about it – consolidating data but into better (CartaAI and SkillAI)
    • DeepGram end-to-end audio inscription – 80-85% can be good, but if you mess up some key words in certain industries, it’s more expensive
      • Voice side, horizontal players are pretty good – if x% of users will have same questions, simple workflow or algorithms
    • GANs and new generation of faces – Disney and animation nerd for a while – power of IP on agencies, CAA for example and Marvel
      • Stories through animated content, Robot Chicken, others – Robert Dillon – bringing in GANs
      • Watching live action is watching someone else’s story whereas an animated one brings you into the story
    • Trusting the people that have been given permissions – Reddit or being anonymous
  • John Roese, Global CTO of Dell EMC (Mastering Innovation, Wharton XM)
    dellemc2

    • Talking about the 20 year vision to be autonomous but incremental parts until then
      • Driving assist, improved AI in driving, maybe geofenced before autonomous
      • Autonomous vehicles as source of innovation – sensors / LiDar very useful for other industries but too expensive
        • Had talked to studios about virtual studios or conferences – expense should come down with auto
      • Vast problems with uncontrolled or unconstrained problems – already have fully autonomous warehouses or geofenced areas
    • Interested in bio feedback as input to AI or MI systems
      • Used example of video conferences with sensing stress levels – clearer audio, accent correction, more people = more stress
      • Cars already using bio feedback
      • People already wearing sensors via devices – can use that as more input
    • Attacking low hanging fruit because of data ethics or biased data inputs – easier to solve problems that are valuable in neatly constrained
  • Amri Kibbler, Katya Libin, Hey Mama co-founders (Wharton XM)
    • Collaborate and share and support their work for mothers as executives
  • 13 Minutes to the Moon
    • Ep. 06 – “Saving 1968”
      • Apollo II’s first landing – without Apollo VIII, Pathfinder and 250k mi to the moon, maybe gutsiest flight until then
      • Flying VIII before end of year – “We were not ready”
      • 2 deaths of MLK and Kennedy – April had hundreds of cities taking part in riots, thousands arrested
        • 1968 Apollo program was in shock and Saturn V rocket was malfunctioning – troubled test flights
        • Almost busted in all 3 phases the last time it had flown, and the lunar module had slowed down, as well
      • Taking lunar module away from Apollo VIII – former test pilot Jim Lovell said it as Lewis & Clark expedition
        • So many firsts, risks that were enormous on a 100x scale – reason Jim was there in the first place
        • Crews normally had 6 months but VIII only had 4 – mathematicians were responsible for all of the angles and engine durations
      • 1 chance in 3 for mission successful, 1 in 3 for non-crash but unsuccessful and 1 in 3 for not coming back – wife accepted this
      • Media as delivering “death pills” for dying painlessly – respondents would say oxygen would run out and it’d be fairly painless
      • Trans-Lunar Injection – don’t shoot at the duck, shoot out front – wanted to go to 60 mi ahead of where the moon would be
        • Spacecraft needed to get to the right moment, speed, angle and altitude for the moon
        • Human computer – Katherine Johnson – was responsible for the trajectory for launch time (Hidden Figures)
        • Took 3 days from launch to get to target – Lunar Orbit Insertion
      • Astronauts were late on radio contact from dark side of moon
        • Came back to light and could hide behind his thumb – 5 billion people and everything he ever knew
        • Finishing Apollo VIII with scripture and then Good Night, Good Luck and Merry Christmas
  • Bill Clerico, co-founder and CEO of WePay (DealMakers 8/13/19)
    wepay-1

    • Leading provider of integrated payments for software platforms, raised $75mil from SV Angel, Highland Capital, Ignition Partners, August Cap
      • Founders of YouTube and PayPal also in
    • Grew up in NJ, spent time in NY and father worked in Air Force and construction – taught himself computers in 80s
      • Received a scholarship to go to BC, met his co-founder for WePay waiting for the flight for the interview 6 years prior
      • Went to do IB at Jeffray’s – advising tech and software companies with clients, passionate and building for a year to quit
    • Installed a suit rack in his car because he wasn’t going home – long hours, brutal fundraising
    • Group payments that they saw repeatedly at the age of 22 – big market for payments, testing it out
      • Wouldn’t have less responsibilities than at that time – Rich deferred law school and Bill had worked on it full time
      • Tried to pitch Boston investors and failed – less receptive to early stage investing, applied to YC instead
        • Came out to the valley for an interview
    • Spent 1.5 year to invest and took money and sold furniture and drove to the west, taking turns
      • Product was conceptual, pitch deck was opinion and it was hard to prove a market need to investors – conceptual idea
      • In YC, built product by talking to fraternity treasurers at SJSU, ski club coordinators – got them using the product
        • Went to talk to investors by showing them the traction
      • Why would a treasurer to accept payments with different product? Host bbq and invite them over. Go to dorm room and watch product usage.
        • Responsive to requests – take feedback and be better than existing solutions. Gain knowledge in start by doing things not scaling.
    • Group payments were a big problem and needed a solution – weren’t willing to pay, or pay transaction fees
      • Venmo had raised money and had a bunch of momentum by giving away services for free
      • Competitors were taking advantage, 2 years after YC – pivoted but weren’t growing as fast
        • Built an events tool, donation, invoicing tool and an API for customer use – other companies were just doing those
      • Realized they could build an API making payments experience easy and simple and let competitors do whatever
        • Saw huge traction/benefit where they could be brought in via the API (since they had raised $30mln)
        • Needed the business to be grown but expectations were higher
    • 600 lb block of ice for marketing $500 in front of PayPal Dev Conf at Moscone Center – still highest market day
      • Since PayPal had a knack for freezing people’s accounts randomly
    • Pivoted to shut off 70% revenue stream from consumer product, gaining growth on API from other customers
      • GoFundMe used them as a payments processor from when they were 2 person company
    • Prior to acquisition by JPMC – 200 employees at that time, now fintech / bank
      • Asset purchase agreement day – tired – was negotiating final points of deal in person, had some drinks to celebrate
      • Bought a cabin in Mendocino County – deal was valued at $400mln
    • Part-time partner at YC now – helping companies in general – relevant to the next entrepreneurs and the scale
    • Angel investing on the side – much longer and harder and scarier than he ever would’ve imagined
      • Reinforces this to his younger self – startup doesn’t fail unless you give up
  • Evolving Narratives in the Crypto Space with Andreas M. Antonopoulos (FYI 3/12/19)
    • With Arjun Balaji, as well — and similar for me as host, his intro to Crypto space video YT
    • Conflict of Crypto Visions article by Arjun and host
      • Identified closely with unconstrained vision and doing talks on not playing zero-sum mentality
      • Ethereum as different than Bitcoin – evolving directed by design choices
    • Engineering consists of design tradeoffs – choices of optimizing and de-optimizing parts of systems
    • If you want to make something that is Bitcoin-ish, you run into problems for all the strengths that are already inherent to Bitcoin network
      • Differentiate enough to be a new thing from Bitcoin – can’t mingle or occupy that niche
      • Is privacy a big enough differentiator to separate from Bitcoin network?
        • Strong privacy in base layer – can end up with inflation bugs that can damage sound money policy of Bitcoin for the privacy
      • Sound money vs private money – not clear yet.
    • Hard money displaces other forms of money in long term but only if they’re maximalists and logical
    • Friction levels determining switching back and forth on a wallet between utility or store of value tokens / coins in the future
      • Automated backend where they are optimized
    • Interest in Ethereum – tradeoff worth making for smart contracts and applications that aren’t just money outside of Bitcoin
      • How the technology of VM blockchains work
      • Scaling is harder in Ethereum – proof of stake has different security model than proof of work
      • Sharding, beacon chain, polka dot – not sure if it will work or what the security constraints are – could have applicability to BTC
    • Bitcoin critics – make the case for it but then explain value proposition or store of value
      • He has an opinion, others have opinions – none will determine how the market develops
      • Arguing is a waste of time. If you understand the tool that’s best for a job, you’re a better user of tools.
        • Which is the correct tool and how to use it properly – perception is limiting in general
  • Sam Yagan, CEO of ShopRunner (Wharton XM)
    sr_stack_full

    • Founding dating OkCupid and then going to Match and scaling to IPO
      • Going from running a team of 30 to 1000 in a month
    • Ecommerce ShopRunner as retailers combatting Amazon and Walmart – providing scale and guarantees with 2-day shipping for many retailers
      • Joining after Michael Rubin had founded it on premise of “Amazon for all others”
    • Making sure they have AMEX partnership to make it easy for customers
  • Travis Katz, VP of Product at Skyscanner (Wharton XM)
    image1-4

    • Had been cofounder of Trip.com and at Myspace prior
    • Social media giants Facebook and Myspace – selling to NewsCorp and getting revenue compared to funded Facebook acquiring users

Fun Founder Stories (Notes from July 29 – Aug 4, 2019) August 21, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, questions, social, Strategy, TV, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Starting with a discussion of Neuralink (Musk’s… brain-child of a company for neural lace) and how it reminds the a16z crew of invasive compared to non-invasive surgeries / medical tech. How did TikTok vary itself in the social space and explode in popularity? Harry Stebbings of 20min VC had been going on and on about HiringScreen and finally had the founder on which was fun to hear. Richard’s origination story for the company and his path that he took was fascinating.

Then I happened to listen to a few different shoe companies with founders on serendipitous and creative stories. One traveling to a new and different country and absorbing the culture to his story. The others, seeing a problem that seemed to arise and noticing there should / could be a solution. Then catching breaks for each of the 2 companies – including the bootstrapping and doing it on their own as something that was fun enough helping people solve those problems / be happy with their footwear. I strongly suggest looking at Sabah shoes for men’s drivers-ish and Birdies for women who go to parties where they may need slippers or comfortable everyday ones.

E-sports and digital discussion for a16z was fun in how society is adapting to digital experiences or how they meld entertainment. For those that don’t think esports may be viable, it’s easy to argue in the cases where they watch reality tv or even game shows (which have been around since tv). It’s just changed how we consume and perceive it as interactive live games vs recordings. Also, malls that are less successful or in areas have been able to take advantage of the space available.

Vivino’s CEO joined and talked about how he is trying to socialize and give people options in the wine space – which, let’s be honest, is always a good thing. Goldie Chan discussed filling the gap in an employment by consulting, by accident, nearly. She turned it into a full pivot consulting and has taken advantage of her great skills at marketing. Hope there’s something for everyone!

  • Neuralink & Brain Interface (a16z 7/21/19, 16min on the News)
    1200px-neuralink_logo.svg_

    • With Vijay, Connie Chan, JPM
    • Announcement of neural lace – culture sci-fi by Ian Banks – processor & sewing machine
    • Non-invasive vs invasive (femoral artery all the way up to the brain)
      • LASIK as invasive / dangerous (still even, but now much better, accepted)
    • Announcing in rats and in monkeys now (surprising his president)
    • TikTok as 3rd most dl app behind WhatsApp and FB Messenger, 1.2bln MAUs – having huge influence at VidCon
      • Sponsored by YouTube but TikTok had a large presence, the ban in India
      • Short, 15sec videos – 1 hit piece can trigger enough people
    • How would they make money? – ecommerce, restaurants, retail – short videos for ads/commercials
    • FaceApp – probably nothing to worry about – unless high profiled public official, NatSec Space, leverage
      • Someone getting negative information or leakage – accusations of the country in general is silly
      • Countries consider privacy differently – in the US, convenience / UX will trump privacy for 15min of joy
        • Europeans, Germans, Italians for instance are more private
    • iHeartRadio announcing direct listing – before, emerging from bankruptcy or spinning off
      • Repurposed after Spotify / Pandora
  • Mobile malware and Bipartisan drug pricing (a16z 7/28/19, 16min on the News)
    • With Martin Casado, Jorge Conde, Jay Rughani
    • Monacle as mobile malware – March 2016 Android-based application
      • In security, netsec and endpoints – protecting desktops, for instance
      • Attacks phone with 2FA, even, and less secure
      • Can take calendar event, account info and app messages, reset PINs
    • Drug pricing – Medicare Modernization Act – why can’t Medicare use its purchasing power to negotiate medicine prices?
      • Part D – Medicare covering prescription prices, prevents HFS from negotiating any part of the value chain
      • Price of insulin where they get price hikes – new therapy gets $2mln for cures (R&D) differences, conflation
      • Price of successful drugs have to make money for drug and all of the failures
        • Counterargument – US subsidizes R&D for the world
        • Complex industry structure: manufacturers, distributors paid to move drugs through channel
          • Pharmacy benefit manager – who is eligible, who’s not – what are drugs for conditions and prescriptions
            • Helps insurers who gets the drugs – takes an economics layer
          • Insurers reduction drug spends, for $1 spent, manufacturer gets a small %
      • Dropping from $8k to $3100 out of pocket
        • Cap by tying to inflation (for growth) or annual price increases
        • May start higher prices because you can’t increase it much
    • Chain is not transparent, but also complex – tech can have an impact but needs help from policy to drive out some inefficiencies
      • Free market works if there’s transparency – what is a medicine and can you make it fair enough for everyone
      • Current system is not set up for the new medicines (extending life from 10 years to a cure)
  • Richard Hanson, CEO & cofounder of HiringScreen (20min VC FF028)
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    • Founded in Hong Kong in 2015
    • Studied law in Cambridge, did 11 years recruitment consultancy in London before moving to Hong Kong
      • Then created his own recruitment firm – had his own looking at 196 cv’s for an EA for someone
      • Score, sort and select candidates
    • Tech advances in recruiting industry – job boards and sourcing is at all-time highs
      • Barrier to application is all-time low but have too many to look for (especially manually)
      • Psychometric and phone facility stuff to find relevant candidates – get on with themselves
        • Go through rest of funnel to invest in the process in more efficient manner
    • Had always wanted to live in Asia – pretty exciting, bullish for Asia in general
      • Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan as hubs
    • If you have an idea, try to find someone or go ahead and do a view of what it may be executed on
      • He had the idea, went to his cofounder Luke (better at project management side)
      • Prototyping mockups and getting through the first steps efficiently – may hit a dead-end a few weeks in
        • Validating idea as soon as possible – customer or problems for people (heads of recruitment firms for his problem)
    • Making an effort to code or understand a bit of the UX (in his case, CSS and HTML to understand a bit)
      • Compared to languages in a foreign country
      • When his CTO introduces people, he wants to be confident about what the developer has been doing and understanding their past
      • His responsibility to show an effort/commitment in the job role
    • Looking to raise a round – HiringScreen did it in 8 weeks
      • Competitive slides, why you want to raise, how to convey mission statement, skill and productivity gaps
      • Understanding his potential investors, as well
    • Accelerators – choosing the right ones? He’s with the Blueprint Accelerator by Swire properties
      • B2B focus, no equity in startups – working space and Swire network of companies (conglomerate of different co’s in verticals)
      • Sponsored him and tried to help advance the company by talking to other HR talks
      • Mentions Brinc as hardware accelerator near the top
    • Idea of equity early on would depend on your assessment of what the startup needs?
      • Super low cost – accelerator with working space?
      • Product but proven use case – Blueprint to trial product and test it
      • Balance the need with the equity they’re taking
    • The Alliance book by Reid Hoffman for looking at employee and employer workplace, tour of duty principle
    • Brad Feld and Jason Calacanis’s blogs, Reid Hoffman as the most admirable founder – better people to take LinkedIn on
  • Jennifer Golbeck, College of Information Studies and Affiliate Professor at UMD
    • Talking about social media research, truth and justice
  • Carl Ericson, CEO & cofounder of Atomic Object (Wharton XM, Mind Your Business)
    atomic-object-wordmark-500x265

    • Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor software product development company and why he chose there
    • Sails at Grand Rapids Yacht Club
  • Bianca Gates, Marisa Sharkey, Birdies co-founders (Wharton XM)
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    • Discussing how they started them and Feb 14 – when she landed an article with a SF Chronicle fashion correspondent at a dinner party
    • Driving up to the other in order to get all 2000 orders packaged and sent out

 

 

 

  • Mickey Ashmore, founder of Sabah Shoes (Wharton XM)
    sabahtwotone

    • Doing a 6 month project after Seattle in Turkey – turned into 2 years as the only non-Turk
      • Grew an affinity for the people, culture, food and trends – girlfriend’s grandma at the time gifted him a pair of handmade shoes
    • Returned to NY and beat the crap out of the shoes – wanted another
      • Reached out to the maker (current partner) and bought another pair
      • Ended up getting 5-6 in different colors, customized without the flip – people said they were awesome
      • Ordered 300 – could get 150+ and did a party to showcase them with cocktails, enjoyed hosting
        • Got 30-40 orders on the first night, decided to do it for the rest of the summer “Sabah Saturday/Sundays”
    • Realized it could be a business after in the summer he was making more from shoe sales than his NY P/E job
    • Expanding from 3-4 employees to 40 and expanding from a home to a warehouse – border of Syria/Turkey
      • Has a few key employees that are Syrian refugees – part of the brand and they showcase it on the site
        • Not branding directly, but definitely part of the story
  • Goldie Chan (@goldiechan), digital marketing expert of LinkedIn and actor (Wharton XM)
    • Discussing quitting her job and making a fake company while unemployed
      • Turned into a marketing consulting gig – had a few clients, had to create a company
    • Now doing talks and discussions
  • Kurt Seidensticker, CEO of Vital Protein (Wharton XM)
    ca400555-4bb7-4c66-a217-b5ac910cba73._cr5101107332_pt0_sx600__

    • Collagen and explaining to people how it was – getting some in to Whole Foods through them asking
    • Didn’t hit him until he was in Italy and 2 random women at a café pulled their Vital out
    • Did about 10 companies, 2 succeeded enough to pay for kids college and allow him the freedom
      • Was doing Vital during another company until it surpassed the other
  • Fortnite, esports, Gaming (a16z, 16min on the News)
    • 2 million concurrent livestreaming – not as big as GoT, for instance
    • With Andrew Chen, Darcy Cooligan (investing team on consumer)
    • Bigger prize pool for Dota 2, $3mil for Bugha’s win was larger than Tiger’s Masters victory
    • 10 years for Riot and League – still grossing billion, WoW / Runescape
    • Billions of video consumption between Twitch, YT (and now Microsoft Mixer)
    • iPad can play Fortnite pretty well, for instance – massive multiplayer opportunities
      • Instagram and this generation for coming together as people – Minecraft/Fortnite
      • Gaming and cultural zeitgeist to hang out with friends
    • Sonal did a fight with editorial desk and had seen it for a profiling in 2013 – argued it was similar to sports
      • Big business and much of the same thing – management company, played 2+ years for 6-8 hours, sponsors, fans
      • Performance entertainment and personality-based
        • Comparative for game shows – other people answering trivia, reality tv
    • Strong incentives to keep games going – user-generated content
      • Established player leading way to user-generated thereafter
      • For Fortnite, building levels (similar to mods and mod community in Minecraft and Roblox)
    • Games stadia for esports and digital dualism (in real life compared to virtual – game is the bridge)
      • Malls building areas for this part
  • Chris Tsakalakis, CEO of Vivino (Bay Area Ventures, Wharton XM)
    aws_vivino_logo_600x400.cb594b3d79815eece9e8c685a7b8d043b7910b95

    • Having users and getting customers – at least 1 employee in each region where they sell
    • Mostly in US, Europe – hq in Dublin
    • Bunch of users in Asia / South America (Brazil, specifically), but don’t sell there yet
    • Not taking VC until more recently

How to Humanize Data for Enhancement (Notes from May 20 – 26, 2019) June 12, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, NFL, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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I’m going to keep this brief this week, as I’m trying out an added format of posting. I believe I’m going to test Nuzzel news to connect and share the links of articles I’ve read through the week (maybe once or twice – weekend one out on Monday, and another for the week through Thursday?). This post, concentrating on my week’s podcast or segment listens, will still go out. That’s my goal, though.

The week I listened to these, I was actually on my way to Monterrey with my family, though, so I had a solid 90 minutes each way to go through some longer episodes – thankfully, I found Doug’s take on culture and leading a community with Eat Club very insightful, as well as a blockchain discussion by the a16z squad particularly fun.

With the news and media focused on AI, Bias, Diversity and Ethics of ML and scariness of algorithms, it’s good to hear opinions that are focused, but thoughtful on the premise of what is being proposed. In a vacuum, yes, these can be dangerous. However, that’s not often the case when models are being deployed into production. Some are unintentional or started with a simple question of relationships (think Cambridge Analytica and how it started via Likes research on music at Facebook). That’s not necessarily justification for something that clearly had a large impact, but we’d like to know that teams are improving and have that awareness now more than ever before. That’s a positive.

I believe that these episodes, though, take a bit more of a nuanced approach of mathematics and numbers and attributes a human eye that has acquired the necessary expertise to design better models or come up with a better framework for action. We hear that with Dan Waterhouse of Balderton Capital (of a delightful Applied Math degree), who had to learn to apply more of an operational and human/market behavior investor since he had the metrics focus while learning. Then, a fascinating segment with Laura Edell, a sports fan, who struggled to believe that the metrics that were widely accepted as ‘most accurate’ (re: not necessarily max accuracy) included all components of what could be measurable – made some assumptions to test based on twitter/media analysis and coupled it with the data that was widely acceptable to come up with an excellent Final 4 Model.

To continue the theme, not to be outdone, Geoffrey Batt and Nikos Moraitakis each spoke of differing aspects of metrics that they honed in on and ignored the common threads of why those weren’t valid, despite what they saw as opportunities. Geoffrey as it pertained to Iraq investing and Nikos in the form of starting and building a company in Greece, not exactly the traditional hotbed. However, each persisted and are successful today – so there’s a lesson in doing the things that we want to do.

Remember, ultimately, numbers and averages usually take the aggregate, collection of those that may not have had the timing, willingness or ability to push but with enough persistence and support, some will certainly persevere.

Hope you enjoy!

  • Doug Leeds (@leedsdoug), CEO at Eat Club (Dot Complicated, Wharton XM)
    cropped-logo-highres1

    • Talking about going from Ask.com to Eat Club – other companies, as well
    • Quiz leading in was on different likes/dislikes
      • Harry Potter-themed eating pop-ups
      • Anti-spoiler pin (digital, season and episode to avoid conflict)
        • Anything was good that brings community together
        • Said that there were employees at work that took off Monday after GoT finale since they hadn’t watched
    • Delivery people are employees, not contractors – become regulars at corporate events and a part of the culture
      • Help build the culture of the locations – food and how they match
      • Building culture of Eat Club with improv – ability to improve skills there, as well
    • Eat Club numbers – 1000+ companies served, about 25k lunches provided
      • Regional difference of Indian focus in NorCal, Mexican focus in SoCal
        • Acquired an Indian food provider for new techniques – Intero?
        • Acquired another, as well
  • Five Open Problems Toward Building Blockchain Computer (a16z 5/16/19)
    ah-logo-sm

    • Ali Yahya (@ali01), Frank Chen and looking at crypto
    • New paradigm has to improve upon one or two particular ways for new applications, but likely sucks in most others
      • Mobile phone as enabling behaviors for instagram/uber and such with camera and gps in the phones
      • Have to trust the company currently to do what they claim to be doing – trust Google with so much to have the interactions
      • Now, have a computational fabric that separates the control of human power, self-policing and security bottom-up
    • Difference in communication cost – bounded on the end by speed of light
    • Trying to make networking efficient – miners propogating to other miners – blockchain distribution network
      • 1 MB vs 2 MB blocks but can kill some small miners
      • Agreeing on blocks or updates are final
    • Non-probabilistic vs fast – need to be faster than 60 minutes, for instance
      • Improvements on networking layer with Ethereum 2.0, Cosmo and cost or Proof of Stake (vs Of Work)
        • Who gets to participate? PoW requires everyone to compute an expensive proof of work.
        • PoS – intrinsic token that you have to own in order to buy participation, 2% ownership says 2% of the say to say yay or nay
        • Cost of participating is less expensive because it’s intrinsic
      • Practical for everyday use, small interactions between people and machines or people
      • Trust as the bottleneck to scale
    • 3 Pillars of Computation/Scalability: Throughput, latency, cost per instruction
  • Daniel Waterhouse (@wanderingvc), GP at Balderton Capital (20min VC 091)
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    • Sits on boards of Top10, ROLI, Lovecrafts, TrademarkNow etc
    • Was 5 year partner at Wellington Partners and invested in EyeEm, Hailo, Yplan, Bookatable, SumAll, Readmill (sold to DropBox), Qype (sold to Yelp)
    • Break in 1999 by getting to work at Yahoo for about 10 years before getting to venture in 2009
    • Applied Math background, tend to understand complexity and appreciate solutions in technology – different experience for entrepreneurs
      • Learned to be less metric-driven – less obsessed on numbers and data, more human and market dynamics
    • Operators vs career VCs – successful firms take different skills at different times
      • Exit, raising money, portfolio management, scaling, growing
      • Important to watch how a business is grown, whether it’s yourself or by being a long-term investor or close in other ways
    • Entrepreneurship as a career path and as a global one, investors in similar mindset and ambition – can take it anywhere
    • More seed capital and smaller checks than later in Europe at this time – maybe more competition higher stages
    • Thinks that consumerizing SMB software has a lot of room to grow, as well as enterprise software – easier UI-driven tools
      • Developments in AI – mentioned real-time trademark analysis (TradeMarkNow, for instance)
      • How to give great recommendations after gathering consumer tastes and insights
    • Book: The Brain That Teaches Itself – neuroplasticity of the brain
    • The first $10mln you invest, you’ll lose – advice
    • Overhyped sector: food delivery; Neglected: apply behavioral science to tech problems
    • Favorite blog/sector: longs for better content – thought TC was great when it was started, but now it’s Medium individual articles
    • Most recent investment Curious.ai – made it in 40 minutes & ambition was compelling
  • Geoffrey Batt (@geoffreysbatt), Nature of Transformational Returns (Invest Like the Best, 4/9/19)
    • Iraqi equities – history of asset classes
      • Time and patience is a big factor for how you look for results
      • Japan, for instance, 1950 – 1989 100,000% return but now is still below the peak from 1980
    • May have a decade of not working out return-wise
      • Nothing to show for investments, incredibly challenging, especially now – hedge funds or LPs
        • Reporting weekly or daily basis, long-term investment could be 6 months or 1 year – pulling money after first issue
      • Hard to ride out periods of long-term returns (think: re-rating countries)
    • LPs as agreeing to the time horizon – maybe investment committees that are making decisions on career-risk for institutions
      • Iraq to one of those – not likely to get paid off if it works, but if it doesn’t, get demoted or fired
      • Had to approach HNW and family funds – adjacency risk for people next to seed investors (if one is weighted on fund)
    • As student, he majored in psychology – said there was a guy in the seminar class that was a unique thinker
      • Daniel Cloud had co-founded a fund that invested in post-Soviet Russia before doing his PhD
      • Asked Geoffrey to come work for him and learn investment markets
    • Wanted to find next big thing – first, find a place that everyone thinks is awful (in 2007, this was Iraq)
      • Does perception meet reality? How many people dying in the war every month?
      • Country portrayed as “failed state” but oil production was increasing, CPI was 75% yoy but now 5-10%
        • Currency appreciating against the dollar, now civilian casualties in a month were down to 200 from thousands
      • Normal visit to Baghdad – mundane here, out-of-place was that 2 guys in middle of afternoon were playing tennis, kicking soccer
        • Visit companies, stock exchange, meet executives, go to a restaurant, how easy is it to hail a cab, get around
        • Critical process of infrastructure – are people paying in dollars (bad sign), local currency?
    • News media is just not set up to convey complexity to the audience – alienate, progressivism as a service, readers change
      • Experts don’t have skin in the game so they don’t face career risk – betrayal if you suggest otherwise, likely (even if true)
    • On his first trip, mentions Berkshire – early 1990s where they first invest in Wells Fargo
      • Managerial skill in banking is paramount if levered 20:1 (make 5% mistake and you’re done)
        • Don’t want average banks at great prices – want great banks at slightly unreasonable prices (thought about this in Iraq)
      • CEO of first Iraqi bank – unsecured loans to taxi drivers – less likely to take out the loan “between you and I, I’m a cowboy”
      • Entrepreneurs in these areas have to be better than others because of the instability vs the stable environments
    • Stock and capital guys – stock may trade at 3x earnings or 4-5x FCF, top and bottom lines growing at 20% per year
      • Usually just put there as knowing someone powerful but they can be bigger as allocators
      • 2008-09: Size at the time of the stock market – traded 3 days a week, 10am – 12pm on a white board
        • 60-70 companies, maybe 20 suspended from trading because 0 annual report – $1.8bn, smaller than Palestinian market
      • High growth company that is super opaque – can’t meet or won’t meet with CEO, maybe some others that state-owned enterprises that just want to keep paying salaries; maybe 5-10 companies that are investable
        • Equally weighted these companies initially and was still learning – now, he developed relationships and is on the board for companies
      • Does he want to put more $ and concentrate on the companies that he trusts and follows the guide
    • Largest holding for them – Baghdad Soft Drinks (Pepsi bottling and distribution for Iraq) – mixed-owned enterprise in the 90s
      • Local businessman (Pepsi is the dominating market share – ~70-80% vs elsewhere where it’s split) saw it was mismanaged
      • By 2008-09, were going to default on the loan they were floated – businessman bought the loan, fired management & 2000 ee’s, switched equity
        • Within a year, it was fully certified, tripled production, profitable business
    • Now, 5 days a week but still 2 days a week – had foreign investor interest, $5-6bn, couple IPOs successful
      • One telecom has about $1bn market cap, 14.5% dividend yield, 33%+ FCF yield
      • Foreign money came in 2013 but ISIS scared them off – coming back and interest from banks – arranging trips and momentum
      • Key problem – no 3rd party custodians (compared to Jamaica or even in Africa, HSBC or anything) – working on getting one
        • Makes it difficult to bring in foreign money – exchange is the custodian (which is actually safe)
        • No margins, cash-based market and settlements of t+0, no short selling (can’t sell unless have stock)
      • Oil collapse depressed prices and ISIS issue but has been up over last 2-3+ years, cheaper today than when he invested 11 years ago
    • Multiple expansion is the question for returns – 1x to 25x or 4x to 15x – depends on what they are as compounding
    • Kobe Bryant complimented him after a junior year game in high school – already looked at as a superstar – saw Geoffrey was dejected
  • Nikos Moraitakis (@moraitakis), Founder, CEO Workable (20min VC FF024)
    yawnofc__400x400

    • VP of BD at Upstream, enterprise sales in 40 countries in 4 continents
    • Wanted to start a company with type of what they wanted – centered around product, engineering company, starting in Greece
    • SMB over Fortune 500 because of product-focused and not corporation or enterprise-based
    • Applicant-tracking systems (ATS) – keep track of arcane process, don’t want to touch things – collaborative processes
      • Simple interface to solve problem of recruiting model (which is still 50+ years old)
    • Problems aren’t location-based – they’re conceptual – designing product, PMF
      • Opening with $500k or 50-200k if needing to get started, not necessarily $5-10mln like other markets or tech hubs, industry
      • Hiring engineers that are good in Greece isn’t so much a problem if you have a good company and network to attract talent
      • Moved to US not for VCs (doing good business, VCs pay attention) but they had 50% of customers without having anyone in US
        • Wanted to start customer support infrastructure, services and otherwise
        • Talked about marketing or accounting businesses on tech that taught companies that it may be worth it to update
    • Metrics that he pays attention to: month-to-month above $2mln annual revenue, ratio of new biz and lost biz
      • Not celebrating fundraising – few drinks but says it’s like having new shoes at the start of a marathon
      • Talking about investors and the relationships built to work together
  • Jaz Banga (@jsbanga), cofounder, CEO of Airspace Systems (Wharton XM)
    airspace-metal-crest2x

    • Meeting Earl, cofounder and maker, at Burning Man – drone being annoying above him while he did tai-chi
    • Prototyping the interceptor drones after seeing military request proposals – had an issue with drone over nuclear subs
    • Can place thermal scans and other security or rescue methods
  • The Transformer (Data Skeptic 5/3/19)
    • Encoder/decoder architecture of vector embeddings word2vec into a more contextual use case
    • Keyword lookup may not work (using ex of bank – river bank vs financial)
      • Humans at 95%+ accuracy, computer maybe around 50%
      • Encoding as correct interpretations and weights for context – emulating process
  • Laura Edell (@laura_e_edell) from MS Build 2019, NCAA predictions on Spark (Data Skeptic 5/9/19)
    build-2019-intro

    • Been at Microsoft for 3 years, supporting Azure for all their customers – quantum physics and statistics background from school
    • ML in cloud for customers – don’t know why they want it, just think it will be useful
      • Ex: image recognition (on techs with bodycams), HVAC documentation and augmentation or signal processing in anomalies of wave patterns
        • holoLENS use case
      • Played 2 sounds for Build presentation – her son blowing on her arm vs HVAC system custom sound – training sets and transfer learning
    • Can take a few real image and do a bunch for training: rotating, zoom, Gaussian blur, cut out background
      • Sound – same: take out environment, pauses and silence
      • Can turn 10 images / sounds into 30-50 per class
    • Active learning: model over time that can train itself and then retrain itself
    • Business domain expertise – her Final 4 model
      • #1 feature was wins, 2nd SoS, 3rd home court advantage / location – let machine validate the expertise
      • Validation of revenue drivers from machine – more importantly, if the opposite occurs – revenue doesn’t agree with data features
        • Used statistics to train data from the start in football, sports data – ncaa – teams, tourneys, prior history
          • Brought in her assumption of player-social index where they scraped sentiment and video analysis for team effects
        • Chose to use Azure Databricks (Spark background), store it in Blob and only retraining on Just-in-time in a Docker image
      • ML Flow, set of score for model – training set and .py and score.py or source data gets grouped together in Azure
        • Docker pulls them together easily and image is built, Azure DevOps can do VC

Dissecting the B2B and B2C Models(Notes from April 29 to May 5) May 23, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, Hiring, questions, social, Strategy, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Here we see a few longer episodes to discuss investing into different biz models. I listened to a collection of founders that started funds, did a bunch of investing, bet on themselves, worked hard and ultimately caught a few breaks in spaces that were extremely unconventional and some that weren’t.

Keith Rabois – if you don’t know who he is, I’d strongly suggest looking up some of his work – went over the differences he sees as an operator compared to being an investor. What do you want to focus on in each position and what competitors to focus on.
David Frankel is another current MP who started by building and exiting his own companies. His discussion focused on how he tries to align founders and investors at the early stages of start-ups – how he frames this to be most productive. His secret though: following the founders, themselves, and trusting they have ideas that can carry ideas.
Another MP at Founder Collective is Eric Paley – though he came from the biotech space before joining.

Amy Frederickson was a fantastic listen on the Business Radio channel. Taking second hand, vintage items and giving access to others who see beauty in them. She connects contractors in upholstery and sourcing furniture that may not be seen for what it could be and connects them with those that may have great use. I’ve heard similar stories to this being done in the second-hand space like boutiques or even goodwill – connecting foot-traffic-primary stores to the internet and allowing everyone a chance at these creative, hand-picked items.

Angela Bassa was on DataFramed talking about her managerial experience in the exploding data science field (and before). How she’s had to adapt, how she treats peers and effectively communicates – all very useful in discussion of solving the right problems in an organization.
This was a great segue for me into another a16z episode on decision-making. How to ask the right questions and ensure you get a sufficient answer. Mining the proper data for it and turn those into insights.

To finish up and not make the intro super long – I kept notes on a few other investment managers and the differences in strategies for different clients, investors and the framework for posing performance in the right light.

I hope you enjoy the notes and please check out everyone’s episodes!

  • Keith Rabois (@rabois), Inv Partner at Khosla Ventures – If You Can’t Sell Them, Compete With Them (Invest Like The Best – 12/18/18)
    investors-khosla

    • Investor, entrepreneur at Paypal, Square – investments in AirBnB & Palantir, Opendoor
    • Paul Graham’s “Clients too stuck in their ways, compete with them” – when a person doesn’t want to take advantage of tech
      • Creating money, vertically-integrated business – build the platform (adoption risk, sales cycles, economic issues for being reliable on others)
        • Provide end product to customers
      • Quintessential example as Apple – control component to create user experience – derivative product doesn’t control own fate
    • 7 Powers – book for strategic leverage
    • Irrational for the 2 guys in the garage – has to be unexpected reaction to market, team, etc — but can’t take over from scratch by following ‘playbook’
      • He’s in the business for investing in a top 100 company
      • Strategic leverage should be that the accumulated advantage should be easier – skill / talent ability normally degrades
      • Anomalies give you insight into a paradigm shift (can’t get 10x growth from UI, etc…) – end of why questions should be incrementalism
    • Secret is a belief system about the world that others don’t appreciate it – time determines if it’s true or false
    • Home as primary home as more a commodity than an art – touch/feel. Not works of art.
      • Focuses on digital health, where data is abundant. Network effect there.
      • References – take Opendoor – could make an offer for house that’s fair but you’d be uncertain with money or closing on time
        • Knowing people will make the credibility factor easier – trust matters by vertical/industry
    • Paypal had a $100k guarantee for the $ – partnered with Traveler’s Insurance as trusted brand, and used FDIC for insurance up to $100k
    • Healthcare costs ex-LASIK seem to be going up – mediated through payers (ins co’s)
      • Can improve UX, reduce cost and improve quality at same time with technology enabled – Guardant Health with liquid biopsy
        • Made it significantly cheaper to get biopsy results
    • Giving founders feedback on what they’re doing – how are they liking what they’re doing
      • As an operator, needs to make a 70% conviction and decision (as an investor, he needs to be in the 10-50% suggestions)
      • Assessment of talent is similar and understanding tradeoffs may be both of operator/investor
      • Risk profiles are different – understanding as operator where the strategy changes over time for the company (investor may be 0x to 10x)
      • Investor gets paid to learn new things, try new things – much more like baseball
        • Operator, conversely, may be like football where you should try things but need buy-in from others with your team
    • Lean start-up as stupid idea – cohesive strong strategy that can be done with less capital
      • Product-market fit isn’t required for validating fixing an idea / postulation (fat start-up – $10mil to fix real estate, for instance)
    • Steve Jobs mentioning saying No to good ideas (10% ideas) vs the 10x ideas – need experiment to get to that capability
      • Bad ideas in venture: lots of failures – 30% in baseball is good
      • Why does nobody emulate Apple or other successful companies do? Avoid the failure mentality.
        • Obsession about design and practical thinking – not empirical thinking. Book: Creative Selection
    • Interview question:
      • If you are a product, how would you describe your value proposition? – initially had product instincts – wasn’t world class, but knew business
    • Founders want to affect the real world – computer was escapist initially, but now it’s a controller for the real world
      • New capabilities / opportunities, lots of people leverage that for positive behavior, so now he says there are more ‘hard science’ innovation
        • Healthcare, biotech, autonomous, etc…
      • Early stage, pricing matters less because you just need to be correct directionally for the company, not so much off
        • How much, though, is risked by industries or risk/reward – what’s on table?
        • Later stage matters more for balancing portfolio.
    • Learning through osmosis with someone that’s very smart
      • Calling people to get feedback on certain ventures based on other talented people’s responses
    • Is there high-growth startup ex that hit escape velocity that a large competitor has beat?
      • Being paranoid is smart, but focused and talented team will out-execute a large entity
    • Narrative violations – common being fake news – average American is more informed than any other American in history
      • Average American is more informed than any other person in history, by orders of magnitude
      • Interesting question: given the resources, is the person smarter or dumber than what they used to be? Voter more/less informed?
        • Accessibility to products is so abundant now – anyone can Google or find other information
          • Definitely true in the US, maybe harder for other areas in world
      • Platforms are now more democratic versions of printing presses
    • Different components to acquiring and learning skills (athletes as needing to do, guitar probably playing songs, surgeon both reading/dexterity)
    • Most investors forget the lessons of strategy, he thinks – differentiation is your friend (mentions YC as having different mentality, economics)
      • Not much pioneering at VC level – Horowitz (and his autobio) initially, but not much innovation since – Khosla, Lux as vertical integration, maybe
      • Midlevel manager of engineering can be efficient from recruiting standpoint – what level you’re at, where you can pick from 350 companies (to 10)
    • Upside of Stress – book that’s very important, he believes — more stress and tolerating it is how you can be more successful
    • Things that stick with him – how they remember how others impacted him or vice versa, little things
      • Cascading of good/inspiration & how it changed trajectory – rewarding
  • David Frankel (@dafrankel), MP at Founder Collective (20min VC 088)
    f9bf1622-04df-11e7-a9d6-0242ac110003.founder-collective-logo-black-tinypng

    • Founder, CEO of Internet Solutions (ISP provider in Africa) then became a super angel
    • Founded FC with his partners for seed stage investing
    • Graduated 1992 in Elec Eng undergrad – IS acquired eventually for $3bn in mid-90s
      • Was doing ventures with FCF, made many huge mistakes, he said and remained on Board for acquiring co
      • Went to HBS – hated first 3 months but then graduated in 1993 – b2banking, b2consulting (jokingly) – but met a ton of great people
      • With capital, could back almost all of his classmates starting (first or entire checks) – had 27 companies after graduating
    • Challenge for FC was to ask how to institutionalize seed stage investing?
      • Not a lifecycle fund, just seed stage – may follow in Series A (not as lead), but hadn’t through the first stage
      • Wanted to create most aligned fund with founders – not net buyer when company is net seller
      • Believe they can make the most difference up front but not as they go forward
        • Who can be first hires? Management team gelling?
        • 2 years in, he says, they become much less useful – happy to be on board or pull off
    • Working with Chris (over at a16z) – says it’s a waste of time to look at incremental
      • Chris pitched 2 ideas before Site Advisor
    • For people not in the network – David loves hanging out with people and is very curious
      • People default to what we love doing – have to enjoy hanging out with them
    • Invested in Uber but he didn’t know in a million years how that would have been predicted on what they did
      • In the moment – Groupon just completed $5bn round and they were invested
        • Was excited about a competitor in Korea as he liked the founder, even though he believed it was “house of cards” industry
    • Comparing engineering student to business school – eng 1 in 1000 idea is Facebook, but volatility very high – business school lower volatility
    • Term Sheet as read blog, uses Twitter / TweetDeck to curate lists
    • Typically anti-sector because he follows founders moreso than industry specifically
    • East Coast vs West Coast (center of universe) – output of talent from Boston and east coast is different
      • Depends on types of company (consumer / mobile is Bay Area-centric) – Boston good for tech/biotech
    • One of favorite portfolio companies-PillPack in disrupting pharmacy & something simple
  • Amy Frederickson, Founder of Revitaliste (Wharton XM)
    revitaliste_3

    • Vintage furniture in interior design space – making it very simple to reupholster or otherwise refinish furniture
    • Discussion of her partners on the furniture side – volume doesn’t necessarily make it better if they can’t do more work / spend more hours
      • Limitations that she’s had to be careful – try to change mindset and buoy them
  • Eric Paley (@epaley), MP at Founder Collective (20min VC 089)
    • CEO, co-founder at Brontes Tech before acquisition by 3M for $95mil
    • Started a web developer company with brother and cousin in 1990s, had a bunch of startup clients and others that weren’t
      • Abstract Edge – still run by brother/cousin, but when the dotcom bust happened, sees overconfidence
      • Bad times – may learn better – he wanted to go to biz school & learned a ton
      • Looked at 3D imagery while in business school thru MIT partnership – interesting and looked at the space – had to ask “What to do with it?”
        • Facial recognition, industrial inspection, endoscopy, video games, etc…
        • Late in game, struggled with money raising and decided to look at dentistry (mass customization – every orthodontic device as singular/unique manufacturing, dental impression but if you could change this, you could have a lot)
    • First investor was David Frankel (from before – $500k into Brontes)
      • David calling and say “Thought the founder liked me but would you mind doing reference call with them?”
      • “Can you sit down with the entrepreneur and let me know what you think? – I’m out of town for 2 months in South Africa, so I trust you.”
      • Started to look for deal flow for David while he was out – with the other guys
    • As he was looking at leaving 3M, he was talking to venture companies and saw that top quartile VC’s didn’t feel like they were doing as well as they had
      • Came together with the 4 partners and should start a fund – underlying premise with better alignment at seed stage
      • Pro rata doesn’t align founder to venture – founders don’t get the option if they’re not doing well
        • Dollar average up cost-basis vs down. $8, 10, 15 million valuation vs $30, 50 or 100 million – but it’s more along the average dollar
          • Weighted later with pro rata investing
    • Believes there are plenty of seed funds that are doing well, but he’s surprised by the limited amount of funds that stick to seed stage
      • Conventional wisdom / FOMO for lifecycle / follow-ons
      • They have 3 unicorns at that time as well as a lot of good returns outside of that
    • Fooled By Randomness – NNT book as his favorite applicable to VC, frameworks for tilting the probability
    • Founder role model for him – said he was lucky to have Kelsey Worth, founder of Invisalign ($1bn company in 5 years)
      • She was on the board, would come out a day a month and help him out – dive deep and give an opinion without being dogmatic
    • Mentioned a recent investment as Cuvee – attempting to increase wine storage / pourability to 30 days
  • Angela Bassa, Director of D/S at iRobot (DataFramed #48 11/12/2018)
    irobot_green_logo

    • Managing D/S Teams and how to organize development of algorithms and the processes
    • Corporate business organization of data science teams vs packaging and product building or open source work – known for more of that
    • Undergrad in Math, went to Wall Street after – got a lot of data analysis in the market, wasn’t a match for her ~15 years ago
      • Then went to strategy consulting – focused on pharmaceutical strategy, testing and experiment analysis
      • Went to marketing services industry – finally saw big data – (no longer any single machine work)
    • Talked about excelling as an individual contributor and moving to management as a different discipline in itself
      • First person she managed: quit the first day, had been a PhD graduate and assumed he was working with her, not for? (What a prick?)
    • Worked with teams in ops, finance, IT, engineering, R&D, etc…
      • Re-orgs for data science portion – always changing branches
      • If data science isn’t the product, within legacy/corporation, the team needs time to figure out the objective of the organization
        • Get past exploration and become experts
        • Her take on managers would be that they create space (o-line) for individual contributors to do their work as quarterbacks
    • As teams grow in size over time (using her experience as Manager and Director from ground up), potential vs low-hanging fruit
      • High visibility and high sophistication to give a leg up on what could be possible for the organization – low-hanging fruit is easy
      • Starting data science team have generalists but very good to mature into a better team, specialization
    • Humility for data scientists – avoiding the correlation factors that you build from gathering and going through data initially
      • What kind of questions should be answered?
    • Parts of data science that you can’t teach – how vs wanting to answer questions
      • Certain bootcamps are worthy of what they teach, organize – mentioned universities as not having programs until recently
        • Mentioned a team member trained initially as marine biologist – traveled and researched pods of dolphins
          • Modeling expertise for a fleet of robots as operating independently and together
    • Harder for C-suite to not be able to talk data in the strategy sessions for decision making
      • Common pitfalls of manager:
        • Data team doesn’t know how the data is gathered or where all it’s coming from
          • Have a data party or something to organize the data creation, designed, labeled, and stored
        • Not overpromising or underpromising
          • Lend credibility to actual outcome – being honest, transparent with other disciplines to interrogate situations
    • Her paper for HBR – Managing Data Science for AI
  • The Future of Decision-Making (a16z May 1, 2019)
    • Frank Chen and Jad Naous (via YT initially) of Enterprise Investing team
    • Digital transformation where industries are shifting to this design
      • Changing from manual to automated, digital processes and more agile
      • People’s roles will start to shift around – demand for new tools and dynamics for who wins in spaces
    • Product management – features or bugs would have been surveys manually or collecting data to figure out problem and sort them all
      • Now, the tools automate these from the product itself, often – now they can look at the dashboard of numbers
    • Marketing side: Growth hacking and market engineering – low cost to increase growth in certain parts of customer segments
      • Decision-making and creative work is the human part that can’t get automated
      • More people in the middle of the enterprise are becoming analysts – BI tools aren’t going to be enough
    • Types of tools should be operational tools that give answers to questions that they need immediately
      • Where is the bottleneck in the funnel? How to eliminate?
      • Competitor is having a flash sale – how much revenue is impacted or what segment should I target?
      • Generally, analysts would have to spend time and $ to get an answer (“$10mil to get a report that you didn’t need in the first place.”)
      • A/B test has to be continually monitored
    • Jad worked at AppDynamics – one of easiest things to sell is Performance Monitoring Tools – prevent systems from going down
      • Harder to prove ROI to other orgs – sales, marketing if they need continual results / ongoing
      • Want to have self-service tools vs full-service from someone else
      • Not analysts but instead the functional operational people – marketer, growth hacker, product manager, business people
    • AirBnB already open sourced SuperSet – ad-hoc access to data for results, used by 100s co’s – presentation layer product toward technical
      • Imply (one of his investments) for analytics and processing layer – store streaming data into database and do the analytics / presentations
      • DataBricks – processing layer
      • ETL layer is the one that has not gotten traction – domain specificity (healthcare vs ride-sharing or finance)
        • Currently too much integration issues and organizing
    • 3 categories – operational intelligence – sell tools for incumbents to enable intelligence
      • Target csm or sales or product manager (crowded currently, hardest to win)
      • Segment-focused vendors – sensors and analytics to oil & gas companies, for instance
        • Vertical solutions for industry
      • Vertically-integrated, operational intelligent company that competes against incumbents – Lyft / Uber, AirBnb, etc…
        • Biggest value but hardest
    • Non-IT buyers: Grocery, Construction, Oil & Gas – operationally efficient and commoditized as long-standing business
      • Minimal change in efficiency can be a huge value (Costco at $12.5bn ’17 on 11% margin)
      • Capital deploy for Exxon Mobile ($230bn capital invested, ROIC 9.5%)
    • Particularly excited by SuperSet, Imply – infrastructure tools – people seeing analytics and tools as necessary for business
      • Software vendors into large, existing industries – hardest would be economic profiles will be very different
      • Selling into stagnant markets (minimal margin) and not used to new tech – cycles will be long
        • Huge businesses to get in
      • Need to educate/prep investors – really bright light at end of tunnel
      • Need to become experts and trusted advisors in the domain
      • Help with software and services in the industries
  • Josh Wolfe (@joshwolfe), founder/MP at Lux Capital – Tech Imperative (Invest Like Best, 4/23/2019)
    rwtxa-v4_400x400

    • Tackling massive scale problems – China as infrastructure power vs the states
      • State or story-sponsored role becomes more powerful with internet-enabling
    • Checklist of 5 main things (Xander of GoPro, now SurveyMonkey)
      1. Nail down the strategy of company – what are you going to do?
      2. Deliver capital to pursue strategy – clear, cohesive and sell
      3. Brilliant team to execute, drop others to start mission.
      4. Communicate the hell out of it – partners, competitors, media, press – keep consistent answer.
      5. Hold people accountable – if people aren’t and the goals aren’t clear, not effective organization.
    • Story – memorable, easy to repeat, conveys meaning in a clever way
      • Want to elicit an emotional reaction – putting meaning in a story for an individual
      • Portable ideas as superpowers – leaders being able to harness this, or the audience (maybe of the shared values)
        • How to aggregate the ideas
    • Abundance of liquidity to illiquidity or leverage (eg $200mln check in growth-equity round at $1bn (from $100mln) but if down-round, then the check has a big stake in it as creditors)
      • LPs and endowments are overextended – he’s telling people to look at secondaries, not venture
      • Sequoia was appealing to greed – sop it up and have to write bigger and bigger checks (get a big fund and put to work)
        • SoftBank as big problem pricing up rounds – either visionaries or producing paper assets as collateral against debt
        • Tesla as horrible balance sheet and illiquidity
    • Zoom doesn’t need to need a big business, but Uber/Lyft depends on strangers and investors to buy in to future
    • TurboChef (fast like a microwave but toasty like toaster) – Subway vs Quizno for $4k ovens
      • Sell to Subway – 20k places for purchase orders – but they got Coca Cola to buy the contracts for Subway in exchange for them to be in the stores
      • LatchAccess (one of his co’s) – remote by cloud from phone to consumer
        • New build and buildings (now 1 in 10) – did contract with WalMart / Jet
    • Some firms get lucky and parlay it into success – maybe wrong in process
      • What was process? Where did you get lucky? Where were you smart? How did you structure deal?
        • Benefit you, founders, investors
      • Price vs intrinsic value – public doesn’t do this, but path-dependent in portfolio (repeat entrepreneurs)
        • Team vs sole GPs – total equal partnerships and all mixes
        • Portfolio mix, super early stage, low probability of high financing risk
        • Others who are good at metrics / business, growth metrics
        • Subsector – fintech, crypto, etc… as experts
    • Tribes with a mantra
      • “Life sucks” – gangs, people homeless
      • “My life sucks” – 9-5 and get home and just crack a beer and grow for that
      • Like what they do – “I’m great, you’re not” – silo information, zero-sum and leave as free agents
      • Lux as “We’re great, they’re not” – robbers cave – how to get people to bond vs competitor / enemy
        • Sometimes it’s an entity – exogenous threat, devil – big oil, martians
      • Ultimate “Life is great” – mission driven, maybe Google / Facebook initially – cause/effect of money
        • Still climbing mountain, goal to reach – complacency maybe
    • Judgment: should we be disciplined about price?
      • Andreesen said only 10 good companies but you want to be in each one – but there are 1000s of decisions to be made
        • Pay any price for the ‘best’ or be discriminated – lead to FOMO and price action
        • Mentioned Cruz and setting up GM deal ($20mil at $60post vs $20mil at $80post, but GM came in and paid 11x)
      • In private markets, if you rejected them, you don’t get another chance.
    • Values: observable around morality (tech around morality and morality around tech)
      • Existence of an option is a good thing – military as a hot topic, tech as both sides affected
        • Had invested in Palantir offshoot for virtual wall for Homeland – has lots of immigrants who were deeply affected
      • Drone options or even autonomous driving (say, those who die as organ donors for the donor list)
      • Compares China’s pipeline from government to technology – decisive advantage will let them be ascendant
        • Moral discussions slow this down – barriers to experimentation
      • Real value of CRISPR isn’t the feature, but what it leads to in the platforms (ex: X-Men / Cerebro – Variant for rare populations)
        • 23andMe and Ancestry as targeting the ‘boring populations’ vs what they’re doing
          • 1000 individuals for rare conditions that have a metabolic rate that raises in the evening – what if this was monogenic / targetable?
    • Sci-fi vs Sci-fact as narrowing — ‘it will rot your brain’ as doing the next $10bn+ industry
      • Mentions engineers and Fred Moul (founder of Intuitive Surgical) starting Orace – just betting on him to recruit the right people
        • $8mn at $20mln valuation – for 5 years $90mln forecast and $450mln – then got a bunch of investment)
          • Exit for 63x for $6bn to J&J – completely flawed process on an order of magnitude
    • Directional arrows of progress if spotted increases probability of success on subsector
      • Lighting: burning flame -> bulb -> led; memory, energy density
      • Talked about Calliopa – he wanted to focus on gut-brain access – taste / sugar receptors (Charles as Chilean professor at Columbia)
        • Half-life of tech: 50 years ago, 25 years ago personal computer, 12.5 years ago laptop, 6.25 years phone, 3.5 iwatch, 1.5 airpods
          • More intimate over half-life and improved
        • Had to meet “Rearden” – “I can get rid of that” – Bill Gates’ right hand guy, polymath, PhD neuroscience after undergrad as Classics/Latin
          • Put on wrist strap that could detect 15k neurons that innervate the 15 muscles in your hand – perfectly model this
            • Can control it just by thinking of turning on whatever you’re speaking of
          • We don’t have input problem – we have output problem — too linear
            • Series A and Google/Amazon invested $30mln – want to sell after maximum value
      • Do you find companies that touch near the directional arrows?
        • Don’t need to implant in brain, can read the neurons – 5 years ago you didn’t have everything that was required – power, IoT
    • Moral imperative to invent technology, instruments to invent genius – encounter the technology that eventually inspires others
      • Losing touch with humanity – where is the song after sung? Find way to reduce human suffering.
    • Are there enough entrepreneurs in real technology frontiers? Is vs ought (jokes about competition)?
    • If you can spot “What sucks?” – can you discover something “Wait, what?”
      • 100mln mice – can’t you put sensors/automation for this?
      • Document storage (Mushroom vs atomic storage, not REIT for storing docs) – banker data, scan them – IronMountain can’t do it
      • Entropy information – he gets more optionality by giving information, but death of privacy is coming with convenience
        • Mentioned graphic novelist “Why the Last Man?”, side one called “The Private Eye” about everyone being surveilled – wearing masks
        • Socially and personal privacy is a losing battle but industrial side makes sense
        • Mentions blockchain for voracity – Banksy for private store (analog), authenticity
    • Special operations spending time for 2 weeks – Asia: Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan
      • Coalitions forces, training, sniper, subsea, Seals, cutting edge tech – able to look at things for laser targeting
        • He was there for “What sucks?” – humbled by voracity, proud by the intelligence and what he could do and who he was with
      • Optical signals for those that get through program are the opposite of the big guys – stunning, talented, quietness “stoic intensity”
  • Ayan Mitra, Founder, CEO at CODE Investing (formerly Crowdbnk) (20min VC 089)
    webp.net-resizeimage-16-640x321

    • Enterprise architect and tech mgr, worked with M&S, Orange, and First Direct
    • Software eng by trade, started in mid 1990s and built internet framing for Bank Offers Direct
    • Was in NY when Kickstarter kicked off in 2010, and saw the regulation was ready for this type of investing
      • Made the concept popular, regulated funding, or Kiva-type – early stage investing is a lot more popular in Europe/UK
      • JOBS Act as regulation freedom for positive step for alternative financing
    • Wave of changes where technology is being brought on the systems and the benefit goes to the investors and markets
      • Quick and transparent – believes it would’ve happened regardless
    • Crowdbnk – reactively do due diligence, price and valuations – invest alongside with investors on their platform
      • Look to raise growth capital for equity and debt – not a pure platform/marketplace
      • Minimum / maximum – equity looking for $500k – 2mln pounds, debt – secured/asset-backed $1ml – $5mil
        • Investors – $10k pounds a year to be diversified and properly investing
    • Valuation class by Ashwin (NYC) – intrinsic valuation (creating, discounted by time and risk) or momentum valuations (price willing to pay)
      • VC could benefit from diversifying investment base – early round by Index recently
    • In crowdfunding, consumer brands may have an easier time going down crowdfunding pick
      • Harder for others to understand some of other sectors / SaaS, for instance
    • Debt funding is #168bn and growing, but small compared to financial services
    • Drawing attention as a focus over time, consumer behavior changes
      • By being more efficient, they can return value to investors and people on the platform
    • Book mentioned: Intelligent Investor – Ben Graham
      • Seth Godin’s blog
    • War chest vs planned capital injections – not a binary answer (eg: compete against Uber – good luck without war chest; tech-enabled services)
    • Funded a company called Breezy – simplifies user interface for older generation, potentially – team/value and invested by US VC’s
  • Andrew Hohns, President, CEO of Mariner Infrastructure Investment Management (Wharton XM)
    • Conceptualized and founded IIFC Strategy as part of his dissertation at Penn
      • Funding gap in project finance to address world’s infrastructure needs
        • Talked about growing projects in Africa, India and others
    • Started a fund as he finished school – raised $500mln for capital projects
      • Including a $1bn transaction with African Development Bank completed with multilateral bank and private investors
        • Provided approx $650mln in additional lending capacity
      • Credit Agricole in 2017 that was “biggest impact investing deal yet” by Financial Times to allow an extra $2bn of funding toward green projects
    • Managing the originations networks for funds with relationships with many global financial institutions
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