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Innovative Investing (Notes from June 3 – June 9, 2019) June 25, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, cannabis, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Leadership, medicine, NFL, questions, social, Strategy, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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The primary theme of the week seemed to be how data can get pooled together to determine a signal and how to learn to seek the best way we, as individuals or teams, can discern valuable content to motivate actions on that information. Data is plenty – it’s a matter of gathering, curation, analysis and testing before putting it into action. This is done by any number and types of companies nowadays – this is a source of advantage seeking that forward-thinking ones make, in my opinion.

Since my notes were more detailed, I’ll try to keep this brief. The wonder people below hailed from banks (First Republic Bank), funds like Emerson Collective and Womens VCFund, marketing company like BEN or LikeFolio and then David Epstein’s Range, Sinead O’Sullivan’s work on space or the data Rohan Kumar collects with Azure Data.

Create a hypothesis. Test the hypothesis. Put into action, or iterate. Rinse, repeat. Good luck!

  • Samir Kaji, (@samirkaji) MD @ First Republic Bank (20min VC 093)
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    • Leading private bank and wealth management, before at SVB
    • 1999 – “anyone with a pulse could get a job” but he was working selling vacuum cleaners at dept store
      • Was told by family to get a real job – applied to first business SVB, got resume in and interview immediately before starting
      • First couple years were tough – learned a lot, but was 2004 until companies had scaled and were getting bigger
    • First 10 years were tech companies, series A and B and venture debt – post 2009 Lehman / Bear, went to venture group at SVB for 4 years
      • Made the move with a few others from SVB to First Republic, now leading team in micro-VC and early-stage tech co’s
    • Says the micro-VC is more entrepreneurial & collegial compared to extended stage VC’s
      • First fund is that you can get traction for a second or third one, fees as pressure – most likely why many people come from some wealth
        • Writing large checks as GP, as well
      • 2-2.5% management fees initially vs 1 / 25 or 1/30 model
      • 1999 – 2002 distribution was 0.9x and you’d get 10x return (whoops) – very difficult for funds to get 2-3x for LPs
    • Barriers to entry much smaller for $20-25million as compared to $500mln – institutional, etc — he can go to family friends and high net worth
    • Seed over next 5 years: contraction in space (wrong), but said there isn’t enough returns for funds to max it
      • 1100 in the 2000 year and burst
      • Continued prominence of Angelist platforms, maybe an integral part of the ecosystem
      • Starting to see use of data (Mattermark, CBInsights, SignalFire) to more efficiently identify and action at this level
    • Favorite book is Phil Jackson’s – behavioral psychology, Give and Take is another one
    • Really respects the pioneers of the industry and first-time fund-raisers
      • Mike Maples, Michael Deering, Steve Anderson, Jeff Clavier when it wasn’t a thought
    • Habit – reading book or blog post for 20min in the morning before email
      • Disconnect from audio / video devices and reflect for an hour
      • 2 hours a day for family/friends and disconnecting, as well
    • Thomas Redpoint, Mark Suster, Brad Feld, Strictly VC, Ezra at Chicago Ventures
    • Knows awesome fundraisers but terrible at returning capital – didn’t mention any
  • Collectively Driving Change, Laurene Powell Jobs and Ben Horowitz (a16z 5/27/2019)
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    • LPJ – founder, president of Emerson Collective
    • Grew up in NJ – father passed away in a plane accident when she was 3 – 3 children.
      • Mom remarried so there were 6 of them. Wooded area of NJ.
      • Core values and dedication to education to get out of the area.
      • She went to Upenn – first student from her high school that went to Ivy League – ~20% went on to more schools
    • Addressing East Palo Alto school as a volunteer to help – 1st talk, 0 had taken SATs
      • What happens when you’re first to graduate high school? What’s it mean to the information from family?
      • What happens to be first to want to go to college, thrive&complete it?
        • To have the aspiration, can be a leader in the family – translator, get sucked into all problems
      • Started with 25 freshmen – would have to come with friends for responsibility mechanisms – for College Track
        • 3000 high school students, 1000 college, 550 grads
    • Collective of leaders, innovators – education inequities, access and need for enhanced/robust curriculum
    • 10 year time horizons – getting them together is scheduled with Monday all-staff meetings (3×3 matrix of videos)
      • 5 cities, sometimes philanthropic speakers or reports
      • Discussion of reading as you fall behind through third grade before switching to reading to learn – already behind
    • XQ as SuperSchool dream – 17 of 19 will open in August
    • Caring about impact and solving problems, not wealth increasing – wants access to policy or money and not taxes
      • Judged Giving Pledge for not wanting to be more philanthropic
      • Environmental, edtech portfolio, cancer / oncology investments, immigration incubator, new thinking to old problems
    • How do you know when you’re succeeding? Collecting data on everything they do.
      • Example: XQ – schools and districts, state of RI as switching to statewide competition
      • Chicago has good data for fatal/nonfatal deaths (I disagree)
    • Imperiled or important institutions like journalism and media need to be sustained, how many join?
      • Concentrating and following where IQ is migrating (hahaha – what a joke)
  • Data Infrastructure in the Cloud, Rohan Kumar at BUILD conference (Data Skeptic, 5/18/19)
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    • Corp VP of Eng of Azure Data Team at Microsoft – SQL and data services, open source, analytics, etc
    • Trends in data engineering in the cloud, serverless and hyperscale
      • ML and AI and enabling applications – shifting to edge vs cloud – analysts predict 70% will be on edge devices
      • Solutions and private edges – training in the cloud and deploy them on the edge applications
        • Data platform needs to be the right foundation
    • Highlight for him from conference: work they’ve done on relational databases in the cloud – as volumes grow, scalability challenges
      • Hyperscale for Azure and PostgreSQL, as well as MS SQL soon enough – system scales with needs (they’ve tested <= 100TB)
    • Acquired Citus Data, support scaling out the compute layer – strong team, great product, matches in Azure and open-source
    • Releasing serverless option for Azure database – costs designed to stay low and optimized
    • Analytics side: customers wanted to do real-time operational analytics – didn’t want to move them outside of their core product
      • How is data distributed and having compute be co-located with the data to gain Spark efficiency being nearest to node
      • Support Jupyter notebooks across all APIs to modernize to do more predictive analytics
      • Attempting to build out pipelines requires too much scripts, instead have Data Flows in Azure Data Factory – no-code and UI
      • Wrangling data visually and seeing if something can be recognized or learned to repeat across other columns/tables
    • Latency won’t be ideal if compute nodes occur nonlocal to the data changes – can’t do 50,000 nodes all at once
    • Excited for the future: Horizon 1 (next 8-12 months), Horizon 2 (~3 years), Horizon 3 (moonshots)
      • H2: Hardware trends, what do customers want? Pushing boundaries of AI and ML, healthcare, gaming, financial services, retail
  • Wide or Deep? David Epstein, author of Range (Invest like the Best, 5/28/19, ep. 133)
    • First book’s research lead him to get into specialization and finding kernel for next
      • Some countries: turning around national sports teams – why don’t we try other sports? Contrary to 10,000 hour rule.
      • SSAC – debating Gladwell – athletes have a sampling period instead of first gene – delay specialization
        • Used Tiger vs Roger – Roger had tried a ton of sports vs Tiger who was born and was playing golf
    • He was not good at predicting what people/public would attach themselves on to – 10,000 hour rule – race/gender as most talked (but weren’t)
      • 10,000 hour rule were based on 30 violinists in world famous music academy (restriction of range)
      • Height in American population vs points scored in NBA (positive correlation) but if you restrict height to NBA players, negative
    • Finnish cross country skier who has genetic mutation similar to Lance’s boosted
      • Sensitivity to pain and modification to your environment – also sudden cardiac arrest in athletes (what pushed his interests)
      • Book as opposition to Outliers and Talent Code – interpreted a lack of evidence as evidence of absence (genetics matter)
        • First year he read 10 journal articles a day and not writing – they were making conclusions they could not make based on their data
      • Differential responses to training – best talent were missed because we don’t know about training responses
    • Collection and exploration phase – competitive advantage for expansive search function to connect sources or topics
      • Has a statistician on retainer, essentially, to check models or surveys
      • Wanted to know what he was missing – “how come I broke the 800m women’s world record after 2 years of practice? – genetic difference”
        • Racing whippets – 40% had a genetic defect that gave them more muscle and oxygen
    • All of sports as a limited analogy (problem after Sports Gene; now, more tempered)
      • Robin Hogarth addressed “When do people get better with experience?” Don’t know rules, can try to deduce them but can’t know for sure.
      • Kind learning environment: feedback immediate, steps clear, information, goal ahead
      • Wicked learning environment: can’t see all information, don’t wait for others, feedback delayed/inaccurate
    • Study at Air Force on “Impact of Teacher Quality on Cadets”
      • Have to take 3 maths – calc I, II, III (20 kids randomized) – professors best at causing kids to do well (overperforming) systematically undermined their performance thereafter
        • 6th in performance and 7th in student evaluations was dead last in deep learning
        • Narrow curricula were better at the test that they had at the end would be negatively correlated with going forward in performance
      • Teachers that ignored what was on the test taught a broader curriculum (making connections vs procedures)
    • Learning hacks: Testing (wonderful – primed to test ahead of learning), Spacing (deliberate not-practicing, Spanish ex spread 4 hour twice, 8 hours), Mixed practice
      • Ease is bad – known time horizon for when you have forgotten again – interleaving and spacing mixed
    • Passion vs Grit (“Trouble with Too Much Grit” – Angela Duckworth’s research)
      • Duckworth did a study at West Point for East Barracks cadets – candidates score (test + leadership + athletic) was not good prediction of doing this (overall it was good)
        • Grit was a better predictor for making it through East Barracks – she questioned whether it had an independent aspect
        • Variance for grit was probably 1-6%, especially after “flattening” groups – looking at people that had a narrowly defined goal for short periods (cadets or spellers)
      • Cadets were scoring lower on grit at late 20s vs earlier – tried some things, learned others about what they want – grit is poorly constructed
        • Look holistically – if, then signatures (giant rave – introvert, small team – extroverts) right fit looks like grit – developmental trajectory as explosion matching spot
    • Choosing a match for a future them who they don’t know in a world they can’t comprehend – people that find good fits (in practice, not theory)
      • Paul Graham’s “Commencement Speech” that he wrote “Most will tell you to predict what you want in 20 years and march toward it.” (premature optimization)
        • Everything you know is constrained by our previous experiences – limited as a teenager – just expanding and learning as you go forward
    • Gameboy example – with so much specialized information that can be disseminated easier – can take from all types of domains and recombine them
      • System of parallel trenches – can be broader much easier now – hired people for Japanese and German translations
      • Japanese man profiled in his book – technology was changing faster than sun melts ice – didn’t get Tokyo interviews
        • When he got to Kyoto company making playing cards, he was a tinkerer who was maintaining machines – started to mess with them (arms)
        • Turned them into a toy, and it was Nintendo – cartoon-branded noodles (failed), and had toy development
          • Lateral thinking with withered technology – stuff that’s cheap, easily available – takes into other areas
            • Remote control, more features – wanted to democratize this and strips it down – LeftyRX only left-turns
        • Sees calculator from Sharp and Casio and thinks he can do a screen and handheld game – small games
          • Had issues with Newton’s rings so he found other small tech (credit cards embossed) to fix small pieces
      • What it lacked in color, graphics and durability (could dry it out, batteries would be fine, split it up, “app” developers because it was super easy to understand)
      • In areas that next steps were clear, specialists were much better – less clear, generalists were more impactful – depends on the specificity of the problem
        • 3M had a lot of areas for this, “Periodic Table of Technology” – post-it note came from reusable adhesive that had no use for
        • Only Chinese national woman to win Nobel – “Three No’s” (No post-grad, foreign research, membership in academy)
          • Interest in science, history – Chinese medicine for treatments of malaria – world’s most effective treatment from ancient text
  • Greg Isaacs, BEN (Branded Entertainment Network) (Wharton XM, Marketing)
    Print

    • Discussion of getting data from Netflix / Amazon / Hulu / tv to better match brands and advertising
      • Dirty data via a wharton grad who set up a survey style
      • Cohorts and demographics, along with psychographics
    • After getting data, attempting to approach Youtubers / social media influencers, tv spots and channels or shows to get their brands in front of the right people
      • More pointed, depending on what interests are for their cohorts
      • Creative storytelling as the change of cultural mind shift has increased
  • Understanding the Space Economy, Sinead O’Sullivan (@sineados1), entrepreneur fellow at HBS (HBR IdeaCast #684, 5/28/19)
    • Facebook, Amazon (3000), SpaceX (12,000) and other funding like Blue Origin / SpaceX / asteroid mining or travel
    • Global space economy as $1tn by 20 years – currently $325bn so it would need to 3x
      • Breaking apart space resources and otherwise – earth-focused (delivering or existing in space that helps earth)
        • Exploration or creating interplanetary existence
    • Running out of space in space for satellites – comparing to airplane docking / loading
      • $2500 per kg now to launch, used to be $50k / kg
    • Reliance had been on unilateral agreement for space policy – one tech startup launched a satellite that didn’t have permission (but no fall-out)
      • Food / grocery stores, wifi, phone, insurance pricing due to satellite data – reliance on services are increasing as the market increases
      • Thinks that we’re close to seeing the cheapest cost of launching – cites SpaceX, but won’t allow everyone to participate
    • Ultrahigh accuracy will require higher powered satellites – GPS, nonmilitary grade is ~0.5 m – thinks it will prevent autonomous vehicles solution
    • Ton of money going into asteroid mining but thinks it’s better for testing missions to Mars and figuring out the problems for future
      • Looking at Uber at start and say “people won’t get into a stranger’s car” or other cases as how we see the future – going to Mars, etc
    • Earth-focused space technology – 100+ launched satellite start-ups, micronano satellites, relay companies, downstream analytics
      • More touchpoints for everything in this manner
      • SpaceX will increase public and government intervention and within 50 years, maybe see a human launched there
  • Investing w Twitter Sentiment, Andy Swan (@andyswan), LikeFolio (Standard Deviations, 4/25/19)
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    • 1700+ tweets examined per minute in LikeFolio – discovering consumer behavior shifts before news
      • Direct partnership with Twitter to create massive database and how they’re talked about to look for mentions
      • Purchase intent, sentiment mentions – trends across product categories or brands
    • Example – Delta (as host is a loyalist) – making adjustments
      • Expectations are the relative part – comparison to the baselines (metrics compared to itself as baseline)
    • Put out a comprehensive report on Apple day after keynote event – September 14, 2018
      • Consumers were unimpressed with iPhone lineup – more price sensitive than maybe they’d considered
      • Apple Watch was the silver lining – stock / sales may struggle over 3-9 months (upgrade cycles)
    • WTW version of keynotes – NYE resolutions – subscribing early to drive revenues the rest of the way
      • Purchasing mentions were only up 30-40% compared to 5 or 7x weekly mentions (big difference)
    • Shelf-life and how to consider the sentiment data – lead time may be binary corp event (same store sales or year)
      • Couple months with Apple, for instance, but with Crocs – resurgence that persisted to current time
    • Set up keyword structure and brand database – “I’m eating an apple” as opposed to an Apple mention – human eyes to ‘label’
      • “Closed my 3 rings” – apple watch but sarcasm / spam that wasn’t caught (estimates at 2-3% of data)
      • If spam / sarcasm are consistent portions of the data, doesn’t really have an effect
    • Twitter Mood Predicts Stock Market – Bollen, Mao, Zeng (88% and 5-6% predictions) – fund closed up shortly
    • Advantage being better than analysts or pricing and codifying sentiment behavior compared to past quarters, data
      • Some consumer trends analyzed as true tipping point or actual movements
      • Public prediction before productizing their modeling – made 40 and were 38-2 (confidence as highest)
      • Investing as very specific, concentrated and holding ammo compared to trading with option spreads and has risk profile built
    • https://arxiv.org/pdf/1010.3003.pdf
    • Diversification as 20-25 stocks, doing it over time and with conviction can be done
    • Starting in Louisville for his fintech company, host in Alabama, for instance
      • Talent can be more difficult to seek out but the world is globally flattening via the internet
      • 70% lower overhead cost than being in SF, for instance – developers would anyhow be in Slack channels / not a big deal
      • Reduction in cost maintains greater control of company since they don’t have to take reduction of equity to gather more
    • Network effects don’t matter if you don’t have a great product or product-market-fit
    • Free association game
      • grapenuts: best cereal (Co’s been around for 100+ years, branding and $ spent and they can’t figure it out)
      • Fintech Future: individualization and customization
      • Victory: most important thing in life, achieved what you set out to do – setting goals and achieving these
      • Bourbon: pappie von winkle – collecting for dust on shelf 10 years ago and now going for $3000
  • Jonathan Abrams, co-founder Nuzzel news (Launch Pad)
    nuzzel

    • Landing hedgehog as the mascot – animal as cute, 99designs and surveying 50 friends – 25 men/women
    • Discussing how VC’s don’t have great advice, especially when general – too hard to be an expert in such a wide range
      • Finds it easier to be very context-driven and providing solutions or action-oriented questions to founders
      • Investing now easier with YC and Angelist, etc…
    • Timing and other mistakes he made – out of control, losing equity part early (but depends on where you are / what you need)
  • Etan Green, professor at Wharton (Wharton Moneyball)
    • Discussion on paper of how sharp money comes in at horse racing tracks
      • Difference between sites – fairground action compared to tracks, and specific to region (New Orleans, Minnesota, for instance)
      • Big sharp money comes in very late, pushing the underdog prices to higher values
        • More expensive to bet while at the track than the APIs enabling higher volume bets
        • Books at the track are incentivized to bring in as much $ as possible, so $0.20 on $1 vs $0.15 rebate on $0.20 for volume
    • Value and differences in how people will bet
  • Edith Dorsen, Women’s VCFund founder, MD (Wharton XM)
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    • Talking about their focus on first fund, approach
    • Opportunity for finding diverse founders, 25% of their fund had a woman founder
    • Starting a second fund
    • Had consumer tech, enterprise and not so much b2b, but trying to increase
      • Hard to say or give advice if one of their partners don’t have expertise in the domain
  • Sophie Lanfear, Silverback Films producer on Netflix “Our Planet” (Wharton XM)
    • Species that are dying, going extinct
    • What we can do about it
  • Aliza Sherman, Ellementa co-founder, CEO (Wharton XM)
    logo

    • Discussion of client talks when she made them aware of her cannabis endeavors
    • How friendly the community is
      • Then knocked the idea that ~30% was female to start before diving off a cliff
    • CBD to mask opioids – does it really do anything from a pain/treatment perspective, though?
      • Anti-chemo because of CBD – really?
    • Sounded too rehearsed – made it sound fake, not genuine
      • Passion/motivation/mission and kept repeating as the best advice she could give – painful
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Matching Environment to People (Notes from May 27 – June 2, 2019) June 20, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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In this particularly busy week, I found the theme of the week to be particularly amusing, but coincidentally or not, the dominoes fell that way. Normally, a theme arises like that because everyone is in finance or the same segment or conference is aligning. I just happened to catch a week where the insight that I drew from each person reflected similarly.

Meredith Golden, a dating consultant of sorts, discussed how she assesses all levels of dating profiles for her clients. She goes through a process that she’s dialed in to obtain her optimum level of clients as well as the right approaches to proceed. Asking herself what she wanted was key in determining how she’s grown her business, especially as an entrepreneur and CEO.

Chief Instigator Matt Charney. Now that’s a fun title. And I won’t ruin it. He goes through his past with Disney and Warner Bros and why/how he moved into the HR tech doing marketing – what he saw and how it’s different now. Fascinating and fun segment.

Part of the fun of being an entrepreneur is deciding who you want to do business with. But when it’s difficult, especially at the start, you’re most excited to get ANYONE to work with (unless you luck into that massive customer to start – rare rare rare). This is Kyle Jones of iCRYO found out. Then he gained traction, quickly, and realized he needed to be a bit more diligent in who he wanted to work with – what was ideal for the business, as well as the brand moving forward.

David Epstein likes throwing wrenches, I imagine. He authored the book Range, testing the generalist vs specialist question. As a generalist masquerading currently as a specialist, I appreciated what he was talking about the strength of generalists. But I do understand the place that specialists have in our society, especially deep tech, research and other exceptional areas.

Deb DeHaas grew up under the tutelage of her mother who fought the idea of being an accountant growing up to learn and adapt to the idea of being told what she could/couldn’t do wasn’t ACTUALLY an assessment of her ability to do those things. Such a simple, fascinating concept. She could totally be an accountant, engineer, as she pleased. Took a lot of perseverance but she had a manager at Andersen (before folding) who was a woman and told her to always chase what she wanted – now she’s leading the Inclusion and Diversity team with Deloitte’s Corp Governance Arm. Quite the story of growing up and what she learned.

Not to be outdone, Kim Wilford, who acted as General Counsel for GoFundMe, discussed how she came into her role in charge of the nonprofit arm, and what they’ve done in growing the company and its donations. How to connect marketing, wearing multiple hats and helping people help others. Inspirational while metric-driven, not just dream-built.

I hope you enjoy the notes – a few I didn’t write extra here but had fascinating insights into Happiness Hacking, investing in founders and how they grew companies such as Vroom and GoodEggs. Let me know what you think!

  • Meredith Golden (@mergoldenSMS), CEO of Spoon Meets Spoon (Wharton XM)
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    • Talking about having 6-7 clients
    • Ghostwriting messages
    • Client work depends – assessing / diagnosing the problem
      • Not matching (pictures), profile, messaging, getting them to meet, etc…
    • Metrics based on what the initial diagnosis was
  • Matt Charney, Executive Editor – Chief instigator at RecruitingDaily (Wharton XM)
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    • Talking about workplace and conspiracies

 

 

  • Kyle Jones, iCRYO Franchises (Wharton XM)
    icryo-cryotherapy-logo-uai-720x433-5-3-300x181

    • Franchising initially – would’ve been a bit pickier when starting but too excited to land first deals
    • Out of 100 franchises, they’ll go with ~5 or so
    • 10 franchises, working on doing a big deal to launch 100+

 

  • David Epstein (@davidepstein), author of Range (Wharton XM)
    43260847

    • Discussed how Nobel laureates and creative types are often generalists that spend a lot of time learning / making
      • Stumble on new ideas or concepts in their work
    • Generalists aren’t bad – allow to see a different perspective and combine ideas
      • Think “The Quants” – relationship between corn prices compared to research on _

 

 

 

  • Deb DeHaas (@deborahdehaas), Chief Inclusion Officer, C4Corp Gov Deloitte (Women at Work)
    gx-global-center-for-corporate-governance-new-promo

    • Discussed her mother, who had passed away at the age of 90 recently, who was told she couldn’t be an accountant
      • Wasn’t her role – she pursued it anyhow and ended up being an engineer before quitting and being a community leader
    • Worked in Gulf Oil’s accounting dept and helped her husband through med school
      • First councilwoman in her town, elder at the church
    • Deb started at Andersen until it folded, worked for only one woman but she was taught there were no barriers
  • Bentley Hall (@bhallca), CEO of Good Eggs (Wharton xm)
  • Mitch Berg, CTO of Vroom (Wharton XM)
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  • Alex Salkever (@alexsalkever), Vivek Wadhwa, authors “Your Happiness… Hacked” (Wharton XM)
    • With Stew Friedman, finding the middle ground of tech with children / teenagers and the happy medium
    • How is it that we find some things appealing but others are a burden
    • Facebook being a publishing agency – aren’t they responsible for what the product? “Newsfeed” example.
    • Google Maps or Waze as a hindrance at the local level – dangerous, maybe?
      • Extremely valuable, still, in new places / out of the country, especially
        • Different, maybe, for walking if alternative is talking and communicating with others
    • Problem with Facebook / Whatsapp – Whatsapp unmoderated group chats and only requiring a phone number
      • Encrypted, but what cost? Facebook – for Vivek, just limits to 1-way action
    • Social media as killing people – think India’s problems
  • Ed Sim (@edsim), FP @ Boldstart Ventures (20min VC 092)
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    • LivePerson, GoToMeeting are 2 of his biggest investments as lead, exited / public
    • Started a fund in 1998, DonTreader Ventures – left in 2010
      • Idea was to bring SV style to NY – VCs would look at financials / models, but they looked at people and product – focus on markets
      • Most investors were corporate but cratered after 2008
    • Started a new seed fund for sticking with what he knew as well as recognizing a shift in 2007 for open source and cloud – consumer-based
    • SaaSify vertical markets with GoToMeeting founders who wanted to do new things – $1mln, $1.5mln
      • Enterprise people were looking to get a market for small ~$1mln investments
    • Hated starting a fund – “Fundraising sucks.” – Could find a great enterprise and tech entrepreneurs at seed stage – got $1mln and made 10 inv
      • First 5-6 investments were less than $5million pre-$, sold 4 by 2012 – had option values for series A or being sold to strategic companies
        • Entrepreneurs wanted to sell in those cases, but with cloud, definitely found that it was reasonable and cheaper to do SaaS
    • First / second generation founders or single vs others – “No single founders”
      • As the first institutional round, they’re first big money in. Last few investments were second or more founders – little bigger rounds
      • If first-gen founders, funding rounds are smaller – deep expertise in their field (and have to be engineers building product)
    • “Enterprise can be fucking hard” – have to know the industry – he has 20 years, partner has 10 and new partner as building 5 companies
      • Why he went this route? Started at JP Morgan as building quant trading models as liaison Business QA between engineers and portfolio managers
        • Derivatives models to real-time pricing models – feeds from Reuters or others, risk metrics and crank out the other side
      • Enterprise was exciting to him
    • Could take enterprise founders and redo or build a new company by changing the pain point – customers can be repeat because new pain point
      • Harder to do that in consumer
    • Leads come from founders – roughly 75% as recommendations from portfolio companies (wants to be first thought or call)
      • Helps founders get their pick and decide where to go – if you have an analyst report, may not be a great market opportunity initially
    • Environment of seed funding: Jeff Clovier of SoftTech as one of few microVC’s and now it’s 400+
      • Just want to be hyper-focused and being nimble – main value add as understanding the cadence (2 founders coding together to selling)
      • Stratification of VC – best ones have gotten so large that they can’t write small checks efficiently
        • Entrepreneurs don’t want $5-10mil immediately out of the gate – mismatch, looking for less for less dilution
      • Deal flow of crowdfunding: says sometimes they will leave $250k after leading for AngelList or building new relationships
    • Jason Calcanis blog Launch Ticker, trend as rise of the developer (multiple people in company using same thing – buying licensing)
      • Messaging as another interesting trend in the enterprise space – his most used app – Slack (SlackLine – private, external channels)
    • Most recent investment – stealth investment in a repeat founder (founded and sold before) – security focused on developer
  • Kim Wilford, General Counsel at GoFundMe (Wharton XM)
    go_fund_me_logo_courtesy_web_t670

    • Talking about joining, hadn’t considered nonprofit space
      • For profit arm and the nonprofit
    • Mentioning pushing marketing and following metrics for raising vs donations
    • Can influence news stations and push for higher engagement
    • Done almost $5bn in funding across 50 million donations

Striving to Learn Yourself (Notes from March 18 – 24, 2019) April 11, 2019

Posted by Anthony in Altucher, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, medicine, questions, social, Strategy, TV, Uncategorized.
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There’s nothing wrong with the selection of a well-traveled path. It’s paved with a full network of people who have gone ahead of you. If you’re active and curious enough, that can lead to opportunities aplenty. But some of us feel as if that can lead to a pigeon holing or limit on what we FEEL like we could achieve. For better or worse – maybe we’re curious along different lines – following a boundary, or making a new path altogether into the woods. Jump into a new space or, adjacent markets, as popularized by Peter Thiel.

It’s hard to go against what we’re generally comfortable with. Habits have been grooved into our system of processes for a reason. I believe that if something is eating at you or there’s an overarching sense of obligation toward a challenge, relishing that opportunity is vital – and should be celebrated. 25+ years ago, maybe less so – as the fallback could have been harder. But now? Nonsense – networks are as connected as we make them out to be – reach out via Twitter to someone, LinkedIn, Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, Slack or the tried-and-true in-person coffee chats, conference meet-ups or otherwise. Interconnectedness has never been this high before. But you have to put in the effort.

 

  • Ashish Walia (@AshishW203), co-founder and COO at LawTrades (20min VC FF 019)
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    • Portfolio company of 500 Startups
    • Undergrad in Queens, then law school – read through entrepreneurship opportunities, spoke to lawyers – knew he didn’t want to be full time
    • Decentralize major corporate law firms – before you’d have to go to bottom barrel legal service or stuck paying $600 an hour for routine stuff
      • Middle boutique firms could save money and they were looking for work
    • Joining law firm is like everyone wanting to get in and everyone in wants out – if he knew this already, why not do a different thing
      • He wanted to figure things out for himself and work his tail off for what he wanted to do
      • Idea for LawTrades came up in his 2nd year of law school – businesses and lawyers-directory service, terrible traction initially
      • Using all of the resources – blogs, podcasts, videos, etc… diving in
    • Gary Vaynerchuk as sales and customer experience, as he wasn’t a tech/coder
      • This Week in Startups, Jason Calicanis as well
    • Law school as encouragement for a corporate firm, not to apprentice and then start your own thing
      • More legal technology and open, incubators popping up but not traditional
    • Attorneys with big law experience that want more control over their work-life balance are their target for LawTrades
    • Had started a podcast to drive traffic to LawTrades – had a guest on as founder of Pigeon and he thought they should apply to 500
      • Applied a few days before deadline, had Brian Wang interview while in NYC the day after, then a skype with Elizabeth Yang
        • For LawTrades, they cared about 2-3 recs after learning about the business
      • 4 days after, got in and moved from NY to CA
      • Really wanted 500 Startups because they wanted to drive distribution (vs YC as product-focused)
    • Raised small seed round with the vision, no customers that were just angel investors
    • Enjoyed BrainTree founder Brian Johnson as a nontechnical founder to make it large
      • Altucher, Thiel’s Zero to One, Quora, Medium
  • Dave Sonntag, Gonzaga Associate VP / CMO (Launch Pad, Wharton XM)
    • Discussing university brand, marketing
      • Smaller school of 6000 comparatively, but large brand name
    • Funny to me that he said that the basketball brand was priceless – invaluable
      • Primarily over last 20 years
    • Only the 2nd CMO in the history of the school
    • Started as marketer at Eastern Washington before seeing opening at GU (alma mater)
      • Trying to line up brand exposure to campaigns – bracket + donation set up for the week of tourney start
      • Last year, drove about 1/4 of the site traffic – had to prioritize the home page and stories to make them compelling
      • This year, accentuating professors and their stories (named #1 university professors by US News)
  • Chris Riccobono, UnTUCKit founder (Wharton XM)
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    • Had failed at multiple companies before thinking of returning to finance but landing on doing this co
    • Building a brand around shirts that aren’t to be tucked in – seasonality isn’t necessary
      • Built to have that offering as compared to types of shirts (Tommy Bahama – floral, Armani – club, etc…)
      • 50 stores now and the plan is to have them distribute clothing to better control distribution/supply
    • Increasing market in areas that they put a store – both online and in store
      • Tracking customer data as they go back & forth between online and in-store
      • Control experience of touch and customization to drive conversions
    • Doing once a month “fast fashion” with 4-6 designs that are only available for 48 hours or limited time for attention and marketing – demand driver
  • Linda Crawford (@lcrawfordsfo), CEO at HelpShift (LaunchPad, WhartonXM)
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    • Getting over imposter syndrome, realizing she is certainly an expert
    • From Salesforce and Siebel, had ran and grown a ton – wanted to get into start-up land again
    • Building the right team immediately, making sure everyone was on the same page
      • Had been recruited by headhunter and wasn’t predicting going into CRM, again – maybe fin or healthtech
  • Denali Therapeutics, (WhartonXM)
    denali-therapeutics-large

    • Focusing on neuro degenerative diseases, isolating proteins that cause damage
  • For the Billions of Creatives Out There (a16z, 3/16/19)
    SHOW_KO.eps

    • Brian Koppelman, Marc Andreessen, Sonal Chokshi
    • Creativity of business, talking about Brian’s original script with his partner – Rounders
      • Failed initially, people turned down and it wasn’t even a box office hit – super small chance to get the repeated viewings
      • Only about doing the work themselves, the rewards would come
      • Worked as bartender / music exec – would work for 2 hours to write a script
      • Were given a chance $5k to be partner – took advice from Horowitz of Beastie Boys’ sister
        • She said “if someone would pay you money without seeing it, then you should write it and you’ll have options.”
    • Balancing the success – his state initially (creative impulse being down)
      • Toxicity that made him bitter if he let the creative impulse die, even if he had other stuff going on
      • Knew he needed to do the work even if it meant failing
      • The job that was mundane / bitter (music exec), he felt better doing because he had already put in 2+ hours of writing to try
    • In Rounders – rejected by every Hollywood agency
      • Some said overwritten, some said underwritten (he still says unsure)
      • He sold the script over a weekend and Monday to Miramax
        • By Tuesday, every agency that had passed tried to sign them – he read them their notes on why they’d passed
        • All told him that they didn’t read it (assistant, reader)
      • Wanted to overstep to make success by getting a director that they agreed on the vision/leverage
    • Up to you to manage the relationships (founder and investors)
      • Learned at a young age how to talk to powerful people – outside of having college paid for or something
      • Father would put him in position to talk to people – in meetings, in production studios, etc…
      • Don’t treat them with a sense of awe or condescending. Also, make them laugh and you’re comfortable in your own skin.
        • Be able to grow, better yourself, relax and they’re not all-knowing.
      • For shows – make it on budget, crew taken care of, make people heard and listening – take notes only on what can make show better
        • Artie from Larry Sanders (show) – network executives discussion
    • Podcast Brian is not script writing Brian – major leagues now, not getting nurturing Brian
    • New Brian and Adam wouldn’t pitch movie Rounders now, it’d be show Rounders
      • Movies were the way that they communicated from the time
      • Televisions now and visual literature as much better than movies
    • Not letting emotional response dictate your actions – how do YOU comport yourself, not the other
      • Especially in partnership types (founder / CEO or other setup)
      • Has to be more important that the other gets to make the decision than you to be right (both need it)
    • Tim Ferriss w/ interviews, 90%+ meditate (quickly Marc says never so in the minority)
      • Brian does 2x / day, 20min & reduces the physical manifestation of anxiety
      • David Lynch for Transcendental meditation (David Lynch foundation)
      • Argue about journaling for introspection vs meditation as a respite or calming of thoughts
    • Billions stuff: As Good as It Gets scene response to how he writes women so well
      • More the result of everything he’s ever read, done, watched while he sits on his couch with music blasting with his laptop
      • Wants to write the characters to all be smarter than the writers are
      • How he stumbled on Vince Staples’ Street Punks in Axe’s bachelor pad (the scene and debauchery and debased)
  • Tony Kunitz, StatsBomb (Wharton XM at SSAC)
    • In london now, paying attention to premier league
      • Progression passing and going through pressure
      • Building the data, paying people to note and augment with computer vision
    • How baseball has gone through 3 stats progressions
      • First value of players and contracts
      • Changing how to play on the field
      • Now changing training and player development (swings, angles, etc…)
    • Also have changing coaches guard – need people to be able to coach properly or the new developments
  • Maria Konnikova (@mkonnikova), The New Yorker (Wharton XM)
    Books: Confidence Game & others

    • Psychology study and approaching poker after reading John von Neumann’s work on game theory
      • Appropriate mix of human decision making – very different than Go or chess
      • Luck and imperfect knowledge of others – strategy vs luck
    • Approaching Erik Seidel to be her coach – intrigue at her book research, and figured if it succeeded or not – could build a bigger audience
      • Still gives her a tough time at not knowing how many cards in a deck (52 vs 54)
      • Using the “marshmallow test” decision-making of Walter Mischel to see if people with high levels of self-control made better risky conditions
        • Made me think of how high school students beat AI experts at Berkeley AI conference after just an hour of teaching
    • Frame of references and deviations can thrive in environments of change
    • Talked about how pros de-leverage themselves by buying in on other pros (can be up to 75-80% of each other)
      • Know that one thing can boot them from a tournament, even if the math is in their favor
  • David Blanchflower (@d_blanchflower), Prof of Econ at Dartmouth (Wharton XM)
    • Children, Unhappiness and Family Finances paper, with Andrew Clark
    • How to gather the data for unhappiness and finance – not based on income
      • Did it based on “Do you struggle to pay bills?” – always, sometimes, never
      • Found that more people with kids struggle to pay bills
        • But children make them more happy, when asked and measured
    • How to change this – other countries have tried to address child care subsidies or tax breaks
    • Younger kids were also considered to be more happy than teenagers or older ones
  • Steven Rogelberg, author of The Science of Meetings (Wharton XM)
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    • Employees suffering by tons of meetings that don’t return as much
    • What type of meetings would be preferred? – Remote. What type of meetings are the least productive? – Remote.
      • Have to dial in how to make meetings more productive, especially when remote.
      • Shorter, planned meetings are better – Remote < 30min, for instance.
  • Caring Capitalism, Miriam Schoning author (Wharton XM)

Data + Opportunities for Masses (Notes March 4 – March 10, 2019) March 28, 2019

Posted by Anthony in education, experience, finance, Founders, Hiring, medicine, NFL, questions, training, Uncategorized.
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This week was all about different types of people chasing and building what they wanted to build. What drives people – what are they drawn to? Passion, energy and asking the questions to further the quenching of thirst for the next step. Reading the notes I had for this had me down a rabbit hole for each one – thus the delay.

Interestingly enough, these founders, presidents, authors and data scientists / explorers are in different industries. We had digital tech and marketing, strategy, data science as it applied to healthcare, NFLPA / financial literacy, and education of cs and tech stacks through ISA’s.

Believe that you can learn from others to further what you do to progress forward.

Steve Mast, President and CIO at Delvinia (Measured Thoughts, Wharton XM)
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    • Using Methodify for geolocation data / surveys
    • Digital tech to help marketers, researchers and leaders collect, visualize and enable data
    • Educated as an architect, then video game designer and producer in the 1990s
    • Joined Delvinia in 2000 to build interactive design and digital marketing
      • Talked about doing events where they get volunteers to sign up for brand / marketing analysis
      • Ask 2-3 questions that are pointed, geo-enabled for brand / important points at the event
      • Makes sure not to have personal identifiers
  • Joseph Jaffe (@jaffejuice), author Built to Suck (Wharton XM)
    • Admiral, co-founder at HMS Beagle, strategy consulting for surviving
    • Talked about how Harley Davidson is in every marketing book but what are they doing now? Floundering
    • Nike ads – never talked about the product (shoes), but call to action – Just Do It
      • Nike as providing the tools for which you act
      • Used their stores as ex of environments for their product – having treadmills
        • Each employee was a runner, wearing Nike and touting the products, experts
    • Remembers asking his class if they knew the first bank to implement ATMs
      • Didn’t provide the answer – jumped into 4 P’s – one student asked what the answer was
        • Answer was that it didn’t matter because every single bank mentioned had ATMs
      • Only thing that mattered – first-mover’s “advantage” if you can keep it
      • “What are you doing now?”
  • Chris Albon (@chrisalbon), Getting First Data Science Job (DataFramed #55)
    2672ecf4-b76e-478c-9407-fc48877479bf-1515514797324

    • Data Scientist at Devoted Health, helping to fix healthcare system
    • Co-host of podcast Partially Derivative, since stopped, and had a kid / moved
    • Humanitarian non-profits, working on team for building companies with a soul
      • Devoted – health insurance company started by Todd (CTO of US) & Ed Park (CEO of health company)
        • Creating company that you’d want family members be a part of
        • Make healthcare that works (primarily senior citizens, Medicare)
    • His background is from quantitative political science – politics and civil wars
      • Perspective of research, experimental, statistics – PhD with these fellows
      • Meeting friends with a ton of amazing, applied projects (LinkedIn, etc…)
      • He needed to be applied vs research in order to get out of academia – joint Kenyan nonprofits (election monitoring and disaster relief)
      • Real data or fake reports, safety, ethic and morals come up – threat models aren’t the same
    • First hire at Brick (free wifi to Kenyan homeless, etc…)
      • Using established tools to provide others data / analysis – for a team to not know that going in, it was impressive (wizardry)
    • As a team, you can hire and absorb senior data scientists
      • People who got first time jobs at Facebook or something, got to see scale and experience that they can move on easily
      • At a Facebook/Google, end up doing heavy data analyses for the massive scale and is a big role
        • Hard, analytical challenges
      • Smaller companies may ask someone to do a ‘full stack’ / general data scientist that has to build everything on their own
    • Early on in hiring process – ex with Master’s in ML, and that’s what you want to do
      • Generalist builders at Devoted, but not strictly ML or other thing
      • Heavy AI or ML would be theory-based, dissertation level technical discussion (obvious focus)
    • Doing data science generally – many other problems – Bayesian analysis, RF, etc…
      • Far more jobs for those that are generalists at companies for business data – predicting drones watering crops, customers churn, illnesses
    • With different backgrounds, should figure out how to feature yourself & experience
      • Side projects, blog posts, portfolio, visualizations in a way that’s easy – testing, GitHub, versioning
    • Talked about his first meeting at Devoted Health – 4 data scientists in the room with a doctor, discussing the coding of health / diagnosis
      • Said he was fascinated in the meeting as he wanted to know that side, new business
    • He genuinely enjoys new techniques, analysis that he doesn’t know and learning about it – passionate about what they are and learning
      • Not hiring for junior – it’s because you will want to grow into senior
    • RF > SVM since it works out of the box, but said SVM is an awesome mathematical tool
      • Used it as a teaching point and visual – but in production, he’d never seen it
  • Eric Winston (@ericwinston), President of NFLPA (Wharton XM, Leadership in Action)
    • Talked about how important relationships and the soft skills were
    • Financial literacy as a passion of his – talked about how little players know going in, especially after college
      • College finance doesn’t teach it, either
  • Austen Allred, Founder/CEO at Lambda School (20min VC 3/8/19, FF)
    untitled

    • Bedrock, GGV, GV, Stripe and Ashton Kutcher as investors – $48M so far
    • Prior, Senior Manager for Growth at LendUp and co-founded Grasswire
      • Income inequality, financial health thoughts – nothing was moving incomes
      • Was in a small town in middle of nowhere, Utah
    • Had to live in his car in SV for a while and figured out how to schedule – during summer, would get hurt obviously
    • Raised $500k initially, couple months of cash left, due diligence – investor decided to not continuing Dec 23 (daughter was born soon after)
      • Never wanted to be in that position again – thought it would’ve been VC but it was more about a successful business
      • At YC, wasn’t focused on demo day – modeled 2 scenarios: 1 with VC money vs otherwise going wrong and seeing no VC money didn’t work
    • About the right time to raise: $1 today would be $3 or $4 later, still had much of their series A – getting dozens of VC emails and say no
      • No goal to raise B at that point, walked through the numbers with Jeff (one of investors) over dinner
      • So Good They Can’t Ignore You (Steve Martin quote, but Cal Newport book)
    • Looking at product-market fit – people would pay whatever to get to the job / signal
      • Incentives aligning, job and person – $1000 to start and pay after getting a job: Got into YC and thought no upfront deposit, etc…
      • List of 7k people, trying to refine and make sustainable
    • Training people online was tough, free upfront / no SITG – no Bay Area / NY, online engineering students
    • Iterating on all facets of business so quickly: had to do it, quickly and concurrently
      • Each 5 weeks do a project, roll people together and do an app – if they can’t, roll it back
      • “Insane” – but more people just can’t fathom DOING, the ACTION
      • Before running the experiment, they determined the metrics for success and failure (if it doesn’t happen, fail)
      • Career coaches / meetups / staff bonuses for people trying to get people hired – success of those 8 trials
    • Wright Brothers biography book and Les Miserables (humanity)
    • Changing SV – fundamental human problems, he wants them to build more, try more
    • 500k students in the year for 5 years goal

Builders for the Future (Notes from Dec. 24 – 30) January 16, 2019

Posted by Anthony in experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, questions, social, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Hello all! It’s good to write again this week! And this one sent us back to the week of Christmas. Appropriate for this edition because I spent mine with my mom. She’s one of the strongest women that I know – the stars of their respective companies/start-ups/brands. They’re asking questions that affect all of us, whether it’s when we literally stay a Marriott Hotel, question our job choices going forward, try to learn a new skill, or even debating on jumping into a start-up with an idea.

I know I took quite a bit of the segments to heart and reflected on them. They covered a wide range of topics but ultimately, how do we move forward in whatever we’re doing.

  • Nicola Corzine (@ncTheCenter), Exec Director at NASDAQ Entrepreneurial Center (Bay Area Ventures, Wharton XM)
    nasdaq_ec_horizontal_rgb-144-jpeg

    • Enabled 7500 entrepreneurs in 65+ countries
    • 49% female and 65% minority as a big driver for her
    • KPIs as solving the business problems that are presented
  • Stephanie Linnartz, Chief Commercial Officer at Marriott International (Wharton XM)
    • Discussed how they had positioned to make sure certain hotels stand by their values
    • After buying Ritz Carlton, keeping it as Ritz Carlton brand
    • Host / rent-type brand and partnership to ensure that they can offer amenities in line with brand
    • Structure of Marriott being franchised, primarily
  • Ellen Ruppel Shell (@EllenRuppelShel), author of The Job (In the Workplace, Wharton XM)
    • What’s it mean to be satisfied at work? Depends on the person.
    • How gig economy changed mindsets – if it did? Many people want consistent paycheck
      • Control isn’t super valuable if they don’t know when the next paycheck is coming
    • Disagreements of people seeking ‘satisfaction’ or ‘meaningful’ employment – falsehood that has been pushed onto workers
  • Alice Bentink (@Alicebentinck), co-founder of Entrepreneurs First (20min VC FF 014)
    207674-8f5f1ef809f09323093e368f6a2bad92-medium_jpg

    • Founded Girls Code
    • Was originally at McKinsey when she started – best way to think about next steps when they were graduating from university
    • Ingredients for EF: exceptional technical talent, co-founders that matter
      • Idea is important but not perfect idea (doesn’t exist)
        • Idea that resonates with you to attack and start to build
      • Non-technical people need to bring domain expertise (used a translation expert with contacts/work in the space)
        • People with years of expertise don’t want to work in their domain – EF is pained by this
      • Selection based on the talent over ideas (changing them 2-3 times)
    • What makes a great founder?
      • Thousands of applications – built companies or startups or products
        • How to keep an open mindset and willingness to learn
    • First time founders worry too much about the startup than the product being built
      • Don’t worry about accounting, incorporation, logo
      • Do built a test product, get feedback, iterate quickly
    • Friends and family rounds can be dangerous if there isn’t an understanding of the risk or time horizon (say, pensions or house deposit)
    • Scaling from 15 companies a year to 40 companies
  • Kirsty Nathoo, CFO of Y Combinator (20min VC 075)
    1200px-y_combinator_logo.svg_

    • Went from PWC in Cambridge, UK to YC and do-everything at a start-up accelerator
      • Got involved with YC through her husband, funded in 2008
      • Had a 3 week window to close up Cambridge and get to SV – was doing a ton of responsibilities
        • Control of all bank accounts, access to everything and it made her more trustworthy
    • First batch she was involved with was Winter 2010 and had 26 companies
    • 10 minute interviews questions – how big does it get? How does it adjust with getting customers what they want?
      • Have the founders thought about enough to make each other learn something new?
    • Obvious business expenses vs controllable business expenses – spending investor money and when to vary / change these
      • Founders can break up and it often isn’t ideal – YC makes sure to pay founders and payroll
    • Founders should be able to report a lot
      • How much $ in bank? Runway? Growth rate? Burn rate?
    • Most impressive interviews are ones that founders can articulate answers to questions because they’re so matched with their mission

Changing What We Expect From Medicine (notes from Nov 5 to 11) November 22, 2018

Posted by Anthony in experience, finance, global, medicine, questions, Uncategorized.
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I have mentioned Singularity University a number of times over the last month or so, in addition to suggesting books that have come out of it. I had the pleasure of listening to a number of the conference talks from the Exponential Medical Conference that was held in Coronado, CA over the first week of November. You can find many of the talks available at that site above, also. This was the theme of the week, along with a few listens to a16z on cryptocurrency and 20min VC on seed investing. Hope you enjoy!

  • Moira Gunn, Professor at UCSF (ExMed Live Conference)
    • Tech Nation Health on NPR radio podcast, International Bio Conference
    • Makes a good point of competing for attention, not ears anymore – everyone is everywhere
    • Top biotech/biopharma trends: protein degradation
      • Biopharma as part of Big Pharma
  • Rachel Thomas of Fast.ai (xMed Live Conference)
    • 5 myths of AI
      • Needing “Big Data”; Deep learning only works for very limited problems;
  • 3 Common Myths About Crypto with Katie Haun (a16z, former fed prosecutor) and Paul Krugman
    • Crypto is anonymous (only criminals)
      • Dark net markets in 2012 were 30%+ of value of Bitcoin transactions, now down to only 1%
      • Pseudonymous – government can easily trace crypto, as well as some individuals
      • Financial institutions spending $20bn to fight and stay AML compliant – 99.9% launderers succeed anyhow
    • Besides speculation, no use
      • Speculation as loaded term – wheat farmers, ex
      • Venezuela 10% of localbitcoins transactions there
      • 2bn unbanked people, 86% in Middle East – bitcoin was an option (one of Time’s Top 100 who employed women s/w eng)
      • Cryptocurrency allowing transfers that would often lose out 7.5% (avg) or up to 30% in fees to Western Union or other agents
      • Stores of value – digital as photos, songs, music, etc..
        • Gold vault compared to bitcoin
    • Crypto is just about currency
      • Stores of value, intermediary removal (or transfer), dapps (tokenization and scale)
  • Salim Ismail (xMed conf)
    • Disruption of institutions (marriage, religion, education, taxis, etc…)
      • Marriage updating of institution
      • Pope trying to update religion – where you’re selling the afterlife
      • Education and cramming topics into students heads
      • Higher education where you try to study tech that, when done with program, is outdated
    • Music, car, energy industries that will go from physical to informational service
      • Cut middle men as you go end-to-end – deflationary effects are massive (used music as example from peak to trough)
      • Humans are poor in recognizing linear vs exponential paces
    • Drones, lidar, 3d printing (35+ years)
      • Price per performance dropping quickly
    • “Any company designed for 20th century success is doomed to failure in the 21st century” – Ghoas
    • MTP and mentioned GitHub / Microsoft purchase of $7.4 bn for company with no assets, workforce or ip
    • Advice to large companies
      • Transform leadership (mindset, education)
      • Inspire ExOs at edges (change makers at edges and next to market) – Apple’s true innovation is organizational
        • Nestle has research on creating diets based on DNA, Corona into marijuana, IKEA into vertical farms
        • “Exponential Transformation” as opensource, FastTrackInstitute – try to solve problems for 1/10 cost (project: corruption in Medellin)
      • “We can’t fix that, it’s too big” – regulatory issues (think, people leaving to do stem cell research elsewhere, or ultrasound opioid addiction)
        • Retrofitting to the legacy challenge – set up a clinic outside of the hospital or other corporation and spin it off (Nestle and Nespresso)
  • Nicolas Chirls, Founder and Partner of Notation Capital, Pre-seed Investing (20min VC 071)
    • Pre-seed investing in pre-growth startups
    • Fascinated with the company – find a way to join the company regardless of the role (For him, that was BetaWorks)
      • Seed investing business start – knew very little, but others had already left so he got in to learn to the basics
    • His mentors – Andy Weissman, Collaborative Funds
    • Notation Thesis (had started a year prior): NY can produce $1bn exits (Etsy, Mongo, Tumblr, etc…)
      • NY has a critical mass of talent, engineering and designers
      • $150k checks into pre-seed rounds ($500k or less – don’t need millions to show traction and a big team for early product-market fit)
    • Running fund for 6 months and made 8 investments – thinks he can work with top founders disciplined with money raised early
      • He counters that repeat founders are best founders (they often choose to raise more – compared to first timers who don’t)
    • Has interactions with founders (likes in person) about capital raising and product architecture
    • Not a fan of demo days – prefers meeting and getting to know founders
    • Has a fund of $8mln – initial checks range from high single digit ownership % and follow ups
      • LP universe is hard to navigate as opacity increased
    • Blog – Wait, But Why (profiling various topics/authors)
  • Jay Parkinson? (xMed before Laura Jana)
    • Eugene Debs (president candidate garnered 5% of vote, from prison) talked about people that ended up being wrong in new ideas were the majority
    • Healthcare moves very slowly – 20-30 years – but advantage is that there’s a framework / playbook for improving this by other industries
  • Andrew Pelling, U of Ottawa (xMed)
    • Just stretch (mechanical force) as cells start to destroy other cells, physical (dye) difference meant they changed or separated
    • Little Shop of Horrors – Ideal biomaterial
      • Sustainable/ethical source, minimal foreign body response
      • Example of apple-ears (and other type), “designers for ears or other body parts”
      • Regenerative medicine
    • Plant cellulose as being overlooked (flesh, bone, spinal tissue/nerves)
  • David Karow, Health Longevity CEO (xMed)
    • Discussion of various diseases rid from stem cell
  • Osman Kibar, Samumed CEO
  • Bob Hariri, Celularity
  • Group of 3 above – 23&Me, Ancestry – 1000 medically significant variants (but they only look at 3)
    • Layperson algorithms that integrate quantitative data with the actionable

Week’s Notes: Entrepreneurs Solving Their Own Problems and Taking Action October 16, 2018

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Another week flew by! Last week I fell behind – I plan on posting or scheduling these weekly on Tuesdays, not Thursdays. Whoops! Life happens – we know this.

My XM radio was stuck on Business / Wharton’s channel, seemingly. A number of segments drew me in as to how some entrepreneurs started their journeys or continued them – always asking how they could improve what they were doing, or destress, or build because they were bored. Ideas come aplenty when you’re having discussions with friends, spouses, colleagues! I do find it entertaining to catch a few segments that have founders claiming opposite approaches – this week it was on funding levels. One passionately believed that if a team is focused on funding repeatedly or the necessary amount to land the funding, it would take away from the proper product building. Another talked of his experience talking to ~200 different VCs and investors to land the funding he believed was necessary to push his company further into growth. Different strokes for different folks – and it’s fun to listen to each of them use their investing or fundamental beliefs in saying that it was the right way.

I’m going to include a shout-out for DataScienceGo – a data science convention headed by Kirill Eremenko (@kirill_eremenko) and the SuperDataScience he has fostered and created with a number of partners. From people posting and the discussions I’ve had, it maintained its level of excitement and continued to foster the community further! Congrats and hope it was a blast for everyone that went!

On to the notes:

Week of October 8, 2018

  • Aly Orady, Founder of Tonal Fitness (Wharton XM)
    • Had quit his job, was making him stressed and said he needed to focus on himself, somehow
      • Wanted a family and figure out what he could do
      • Took 9 months to lose 70 pounds and was feeling much better – strength training vs cardio
    • In deciding what he wanted to do next – wanted something that was out of his need to train and not having the information
      • Trainers do exist out there but good ones are fully booked – others don’t have the experience or the knowledge or practical knowledge
  • Farhad Farahbakhshian, CEO and co-founder of Naked Labs (Wharton XM)
    • Home body scanner, out of necessity and not having information to do this
    • “Honest feedback” on how fit they are and their own body – can see adjustments in privacy of home or with gym partners, etc…
  • Syed Hussain, Chief Commercial Officer for BANKEX, global fintech firm (Behind the Markets, Wharton XM)
    • Trying to get banks on blockchain for security and transactional setup
      • Host thought it was ridiculous that 2% charge and 3% charge for customers of banks, between banks and transaction companies to consumers
        • Should be 2-5 bps, if blockchain can bring that charge down, worth it
    • Background in IB with Bank of America and Merrill Lynch
  • Phil Libin, CEO and Co-founder of All-Turtles (Wharton Launch Pad)
    • All-Turtles, AI startup studio looking to partner with founding teams to build products
    • Before starting All-Turtles while at General Capital, was CEO and starter of Evernote (~8-9 years)
      • Talked about not having a great story, very difficult to obtain funding initially
        • All funding outside of him and co-founder came from very active users/first adopters
      • He really wanted to build a “100 year start-up”, what would that look like? Product that he could be fine with, but wasn’t ultimately looking for an exit between he and his co-founder
        • However, he also realized he wouldn’t need to be CEO forever. Wasn’t until meeting with GoPro founder who asked “still having fun?”
          • If not having fun, then it was likely due to not doing the things he was good/great at and needed to get rid of those responsibilities
  • Donna Hicks, Leading with Dignity (Wharton XM, Women @ Work)
    • Talking about why many lose their dignity, due to others
    • Leading requires understanding humans and how to lead with dignity
    • She’s an International Conflict Resolution Advisor
  • SC0x Week 3, Lesson 2
    • Transportation and transshipment problems
      • Variability of demand – what to incorporate
        • More to bring in, more the model becomes difficult to solve or interpret
      • Simulation is descriptive, not prescriptive model
      • Transportation model is source nodes or demand nodes
    • Transshipment involves demand and supply, but also adds intermediate nodes
    • Anything that doesn’t supply or demand flow (enforcement of in vs outflow)
    • Data requirements of modeling problems
      • Where the modeler draws the line of complexity:
        • Realistic problem vs realism/practicality
      • Cost structure- variable costs at nodes, fixed cost/combination, concave/nonlinear?
      • Single or multiple commodity? Separate or family of SKUs?
        • Common unit, like cases? A ton of product? What’s the flow variable?

Life is Global October 23, 2017

Posted by Anthony in education, experience, finance, global, Politics, questions, social.
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In just returning from Chile and having my 29th birthday, I did a ton of reflection over the last 2 weeks. Long flights, new places, peaceful heights & coming of age will force you to do this, if you don’t pause on your own to do it anyhow.

A word:
metacognition – dictionary.com has this as “higher-order thinking that enables understanding, analysis, and control of one’s cognitive processes, especially when engaged in learning.” I prefer a simpler “thinking about one’s own mental processes” .

Why do we do what we do? Some just act instinctively. Others act and then question why they acted. Yet there are some who will think, then act. There is a process by which everyone goes about their actions and thoughts – very few reflect on this process. Even fewer that look to change it for the better. Learning to think, approaching problems, coming up with solutions. Producing insights that can push forward or analyze why processes should be different.

In visiting with neighbors on my flights, shoulder-to-shoulder in immigration lines, Chilean natives, South American transplants from neighboring countries and visitors from across the world, there was a different consensus among the lot of them. Everyone had someplace else to be. Each person as different as the next. It was peaceful to not catch a news segment, comedy remark, or overhear a conversation about the active politics of the day. It’s overwhelming in the states, needlessly – and more importantly, rampant with misinformation which makes the deluge of politics ripe with uninformed, unintelligent thoughts. 7 days away – I believe I caught a single newspaper that had Trump on the cover and CNN one morning at the hotel mentioning a brief, 2 minute segment. Granted, I wasn’t looking for the conversations or seeking newspapers/tv’s, but still – there was some peace. Friends who have traveled abundantly over the past year to Europe/Canada/others have anecdotally mentioned that as one of the first things that arise in taxis/Ubers/people that become aware of a US citizen in their presence. No such bad luck in Mexico (my layover) or in Chile once I was there. There were more entertaining or productive discussions to be had. I’m sure this is a part of where one can direct a conversation, as well. People should be more cognizant of this, though I’m afraid politics have now dropped into the pantheon of ‘effortless’ conversation along with “how’s the weather?”, “did you see X” and a general “how’s work”?

Hopefully, as people grow and become more successful and comfortable in their lives, they would want to contribute something back – knowledge, money, mentorships and more. Often, there’s a line drawn between impact and how large of one can be made. This is less important, however, than making an impact regardless. We can make an impact in your core community – neighborhood, town or city, business community. Expand that out to affect multiple cities or a region – think Elon with LA’s tunnels, subway/metro/public transportation, bag ordinances or green movements – smart cities will eventually become a larger look as we go forward, as well. Outside of bigger projects like mentioned above, we can start a group or meet-up that gains members from the community in question – contribution of ideas that can go beyond infrastructural concepts.

Thinking larger (but not in the sense that it has to be bigger impact-wise), connection across counties, states, or the nation is important but more difficult to scale. Industries or sectors can be defined and aided by any one group or person that makes an impact beyond the immediate cases and permeates the outreaches from there. Then we have global scales – whether it’s advancing some technology or standard and bringing it to areas that may be impacted greatly with progression. There are tons of examples of all of these scales. People have different passions and shouldn’t be restricted or forced into doing something that doesn’t spark a fire in them to improve their lives (and hopefully, helping some others that they have a connection to in the process).

We live in a world where information is at our fingertips, a swipe and drag away on our phones. Barriers to entry continue to fall across all spectra. Get excited, people! Help yourself to help others.

Some things that I am jumping into and ones that I would love to hear ideas/talk to others about:
– mentorship with high school / college-level students with finding a passion or question ideas for how to progress forward
– a fun application to make it easier to connect local restaurants/bars with customers about their happy hours using OCR / Image-to-text from menu photos to populate database
– starting an investment fund that focuses on avoiding the nearly unavoidable ‘home bias’ as well as matching risk tolerance with proper returns – focusing on international availability and risk profile of uncorrelated assets
– new thought: possible website/application that will take multiple starting points (friends that live apart from each other) meeting at some location / flight destination in between for reasonable prices — multi-optimized Skyscanner/Hopper
– Payments/Vendors/AP/AR organizing software that will reduce burden and difficulty for companies with nontechnical backgrounds / capacity for process to be so intuitive that it won’t require more personnel or capital invested

 

If You’re Not Learning, Are You Getting Better September 24, 2017

Posted by Anthony in education, experience, Politics, questions, social, Uncategorized.
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While attempting to grind through a recent valuation project, I spoke with a friend about how we had changed over the years. Change is obviously something that most people experience, but how we reflect is often incredibly different. Some don’t. And to that, I’d say that I feel badly for them. Others do, but maybe not to an extent of “what did I do today – oh, that. Yes” — an acknowledgement more than a reflection. For those that reflect, ponder, and wonder why, or how to fix any occurrence that didn’t agree with them – those people are the ones who truly learn and can push themselves to better.

Learning is not hearing, memorizing, and repeating until information is no longer needed. Seek to learn. Provide yourself with a framework that you can apply the knowledge in, and build questions to hypothesize further in that space. We learn if we’re more interested, obviously, but you can build that interest. Challenge yourself. Honestly, I harp on myself for this, but it is discouraging to see people repeatedly not want to apply or seek knowledge in what they may/may not be interested in.

This all seems appropriate in this instant gratification/click-bait/24/7 news cycle period. Confirmation and recency bias run rampant. Few people question their sources or the information sources provide. When more people are in higher education, critical thinking SHOULD be a focus of almost all institutions, but it apparently falls by the wayside, especially when something agrees with your train of thought. It’s difficult to seek other sources, and even harder to avoid some form of a bias in answers. Everyone forms an opinion. Only through conversation and open discourse can you start to inform yourself of questions and answers in the framework of a solid argument. Then build up!

Presented with new facts that are contrary to what was gathered initially? Review them in the new light but your former framework – seek true results and apply. If the application of new knowledge reveals a new paradigm, then shift your hypothesis. People shouldn’t be wary of changing – invite it if your thought process is rigorous! Without a rigorous argument, though, it won’t matter whether you agree with others or don’t, because you won’t be vital to a conversation for more than 2 minutes unless it’s group-think.

It pains me to see straw man fallacy as a defense mechanism all too often these days. That isn’t worth a breath of counterargument by someone presenting logical context and thoughts. Critical thinking.

People have passions different than others. We are our own individuals at the end of the day. But we accept this. There’s not a single person who can be all-knowing about everything. Even if that were true, priorities wouldn’t align for those individuals with others. Some people focus on health – some people on education, others in finance, businesses. There isn’t a right or a wrong. Problems are rooted in a cause. Ask the questions about the cause. Maybe if that’s agreed upon, then solutions can be gathered, debated and decided upon merit. Throwing solutions at an unknown problem – this is no good. Context can be more important than the solution – otherwise you’re blindly tackling. Using medicine as an example – if you have pain in your arm and go to the general doctor, or let’s say an extreme: arm specialist – then you may get a response of “nothing appears wrong”. However, if you go in saying you’ve eaten unhealthily or had a family tree of cardiac disease, the doctor would hopefully put together that you need to see a cardiologist. I don’t want to go on forever (and I’m aware that this was a very LOOSE example – bear with me).

Context. More information. Questions. More details. Then a decision, an opinion, a solution. Then re-assess. Always be learning.

 

Education Adjustments May 19, 2017

Posted by Anthony in education, experience, questions, social, Uncategorized.
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A quick preview: <blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>American higher education: Pay us tens (sometimes hundreds) of thousands of dollars to recommend some books to you.</p>&mdash; Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) <a href=”https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status/865251606568345600″>May 18, 2017</a></blockquote>
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

And this is what everyone and their moms (and dads) get bogged down with during at minimum freshman year of high school, while some do that even earlier. That is the mindset of a higher percentage of Americans in this day and age. Awareness is an excellent thing – parents should be more aware of how the process works, certainly. I think I could have been better prepared for the magnitude of it all, but it’s also possible I benefited from a mom who was proud with whatever came up for me. The pressure from school, parents, counselors, private ‘education counselors’, and now all friends as well at an earlier age scares me. It’s misguided and has created an atmosphere that approaches more of a lose-lose / lose-win than a win-win. A specific college shouldn’t be the ‘ultimate goal’ of students. Dreams/aspirations past that point, where college MAY act as a useful stepping stone, is more ideal, in my opinion.

Over the last 10 years, college costs have increased dramatically, needlessly. Yet that is what gets pushed in the middle and secondary environments – better grades, more AP’s, all the excellence for test scores and extracurricular activities if you can help it. Screw off with your joys and passions, unless they align with those above. All to throw your applications (and more importantly, their fees) into a lottery to provide you another stressful decision set (or worse, put you into a bout of depression over not being accepted into those loftily-held institutions). I’m nearly stressing myself thinking about it.

And I see it on an almost daily basis. ~3-4 times a week and more over the last 5.5 years with a rising, successful tutoring company. The expansion of centers to more states, the materials that have been pushed out are incredibly useful for achieving all of the above – but it does just that – pushes students to the brink for academic standards. When, in my experience, a majority of the ones that have been lucky enough to easily get into the top institutions were athletically gifted or born as kin of high places. Harvard, Duke, Stanford, Berkeley, NYU, Yale,  UPenn, Princeton, etc… to name a few.

Work hard, do well and don’t have the athletics or parents to gift away – lottery-bound! Enjoy. And many do get into great schools, but it’s not certain. Even in the tri-valley / East Bay Area, where schools push academics so hard. Unfortunately, high school doesn’t allow the freedom to struggle or fail without hard consequences. Students avoid that at all costs – talk amongst themselves in group chats, memes, jokes and fun poked at those that did worse. Joy found in a group sorrow if a test is particularly hard – either perked up by a curve or succumb to the deterioration of the grades.

Then there is the homework – piled on with all of the classes, typically at home. Some students are fortunate – certain subjects require less effort to understand, but most have to work at it. That leaves minimal hours in the day, either clawing away at sleep or worse, depriving some of hobbies outside of class, which depresses me. Ask a student what they want to do if they could choose and they don’t have an answer. Just maybe what they’ll study in college. In a world where it’s easier to do almost anything in any particular field / industry, few students look past studies to what they want after. It’s a constant grind, of which I’m not envious.

I believe that students should have an opportunity to work or start a company or intern for some company or field that they wish – hopefully one that teaches them whether to pursue that industry in the future. Much of what I found in college was learning what I WASN’T passionate about, not so much of what I was passionate about. People change, but skills can be gained – focus on the companies/industries you wish to live around. Never before is that more true.

Bill Gates tweeted some advice recently – a few of which I’ll share my thoughts:

  1. “AI, Energy, and Biosciences are promising fields where you can make a huge impact. It’s what I would do if starting out today.”
    Analytics drives all 3 of these. Energy is the one that may have the most impact, but efficiency is a challenger here – for instance, battery’s have made great strides, but solar has made linear strides that haven’t made any economic sense in the present. Biosciences will explode with the technology developed in recent years and the information we’ll be able to see with hardware/software connections.
  2. “Looking back on when I left college… intelligence takes many forms. It is not one-dimensional. And not as important as I used to think.”
    I completely agree. Different levels and styles of intelligence – whether it’s focuses or broad knowledge. Experts in one field doesn’t make an expert in another. Be careful with ‘experts’ and what it takes to get that title. Do your due diligence and research but open-minded in conversations with others. Everybody – no matter their intelligence – can contribute to expanding/sharpening your mind.
  3. Then he had some world-impact tweets that described some of the “inequities” of the world. “You know more than I did when I was your age. You can start fighting inequity, whether down the street or around the world, sooner.”
  4. “Meanwhile, surround yourself with people who challenge you, teach you, and push you to be your best self.” Never truer words have been spoken. People mention having mentors, but we should really have mentors, people that we mentor and peers that challenge us. The combination to make each other better make the individuals better.
  5. He goes on about this being the most peaceful time in history. Progress can be made if you think the world is getting better, and you want to spread it.

If I had my way, I would love to start something for students that partnered some businesses that could use some admin-style / research analyst work but that were willing to take on a shadow for 4-8 weeks or something over summer. Give the students some money for working and helping out, but also provide them the opportunity to what positions above an intern role may entail in the industry. Is it exciting for them? Is it something that teaches them that that particular role isn’t a fit? I think those lessons, that early, would be invaluable.
If successful, a similar college program could be enacted for frosh / sophomores that were available during the year. Far too many do not get the work experience until after Junior or senior years. We can make that better!

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