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Disorganized Trying to Organize (Notes from Feb 3 – Feb 9, 2020) August 4, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Acquisitions, Automation, Blockchain, Coronavirus, Daily fantasy football, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Healthcare, Leadership, NBA, questions, social, sports, Strategy, Streaming, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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Productivity tools have been all the rage. Those familiar with adoption of new technology or tools in an office setting bigger than 20 people have likely been through what’s described as the J curve for adoption, popularized by Erik Brynjolfsson and Daniel Rock in their paper (see: https://economics.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9386/f/brynrocksyv_j-curve_final.pdf) of September 2018 on general purpose technologies. There is a slope downward to start for the adoption because the productivity decrease and difficulty in trying to set it up often leads to a loss. Over time and the consistent use, it can go away and lead to the productivity gains we sought in the first place.

Well, I’m in that too many tools, too many valleys section. Bundle and use a tool that tries to do it all? Or unbundle and use multiple tools. If you are trying to optimize notes for one platform and it doesn’t work for your other platforms (mobile/to-go/car), is it optimal? Is 90% great if you miss on the 10% you don’t have a good solution for? I’m not sure. I’m hopeful that audio can work easily – may even jump into Otter.ai for transcription there.

A family friend of ours was so obsessed with keeping track of all his clothes, colors and features that he took it upon himself to build a database of his closet. Upon telling someone else, I recall a similar story for someone who went further and did bar codes on their clothes. You spend so much time obsessing over something you’d love organization over until that organizing takes up the time you were hoping to save. We could take this further and draw similar analogies to corporate, big companies compared to start-ups in growth as an early employee – always something to be done, may not be optimizing the work, just attempting to get something out compared to optimization runs for something that worked until it breaks. Exciting work on either end but ultimately, there’s a line you must draw.

There are tons of benefits to organization for notes, processes, documentation in that someone could come in at any point and figure out what connects to what. There’s a context. I think YourStacks is doing something like this for personal / professional use of tools and games and everything one comes into contact. There have been corporate / enterprise stack technology sites that break down webpage technology or company technologies. Then there are transparent people / companies who document it both privately and publicly for others to see. We try what we think may improve but it’s tough to know where to start.

There’s a lesson to be learned here in starting, trying to going from there. Some of us want to try to optimize all the tools or one tool to its fullest before moving forward. How good is good? Or not good enough? At what point do you pass to the next or add another tool? How many tools are too many? And will we get a bundling or unbundling of different aspects? I’m hopeful we get voice tools that enable bundling for all sorts of this. Currently, I’ve yet to find the solution. Let me know what your set is!

  • Dr. Tara Smith, Professor of Epidemiology at Kent State University College of PH, Erik Moses (Wharton Moneyball 2/5/20)
    • Hockey – East and West split of conferences currently, top 4 teams in the East and defending champs Blues in the West are 5th
      • More or less deterministic (coin flips previously) – 50% as max from a conference if coin flips
    • Mookie Betts as trying to get 10 year, $40 mil per because he’s so young
    • Joined in August 2013 after being at Univ of Iowa in Emerging Infectious Diseases
  • Chetan Puttagunta, GP at Benchmark Capital (Invest like the Best 1/28/20)
    • Investing in early-stage, MongoDB, Elastic, Mulesoft and advice for POS in enterprise software building Canvas
    • MongoDB – 2012 and had experience building consumer apps from 2007-08 trying to build tech that was pretty limited
      • Felt like an advantage between large companies with proprietary data and tools compared to DIY
      • Met Elliott (MongoDB founder, from DoubleClick) – would ask best devs to work with Mongo and they responded “Don’t need”
      • DB expert – MySQL can work with everything but would miss the class of devs that wanted without planning for scale, app may not work
      • DB could handle scale, millions of users, transactional data by 2015-16, right place right time
      • Oracle as building a great database business and moved into application tier with their apps built on their db
        • CRM, HCM (Peoplesoft) to serve application – 1977 to true leader in databases in 80s, relational
      • Other timing – 1992, for instance, and it would not have worked. Cloud has been so open to these techs.
      • Cockroach for globally scalable, relational db – TimeScale for time-series IoT model, for instance after cloud enabled it
        • Specific use cases have more specifically-tailored results
      • Initiating and potential TAM Salesforce estimates from the start compared to now, where it’s much larger now than suspected
    • Now, enterprise software permeates into companies all over for IoT and consumer tech
      • Caterpillar, Pharma, Financial Services, Shipping companies are all buyers
      • Diva built a CRM system for healthcare vertical on general CRM, Salesforce – multibillion dollar company
      • Client facing software is very important – system that will be helpful and customers will tackle that and tell you directly
    • People come to work and complete a specific job or task – not to work or be an expert with your software
      • New tool into a workflow, only certain amount of walls to learn the software before leaving
      • Go slow to go fast – if you’re building a software solution in the start, build for 5-10 important users
        • Address the needs of those customers – generally applicable to the market (not just the single customer)
        • Won’t become an outside services or dev shop if you deliver services to the general customer
      • Workday and Viva early days – 50% of revenue were services since they entered enterprises (large installation of PeopleSoft)
        • On-prem CRM for Viva – lots of handholding, data migration and such
    • Duffel (Global Distribution System) for airlines selling to consumers
      • Convoluted system to sell and the flows is astounding – entrepreneurs in payments looking to innovate in these instances
      • Found airlines and approached them to “Shouldn’t it work like this?” to get your first partners/customers
      • Patient capital of “go slow to go fast” to super efficient business – spreadsheet vs software
        • Example at Greg Shaw – Mulesoft – burned $8mln from $100mln to 200mln in revenue and burned $4mln from 2-300mln
          • Inside Salesforce, they’ve grown top-line revenues further
    • Unlikely that someone else is building what you’re building
      • 2004 – Salesforce selling CRM, main competitor was Seibel – Salesforce had ACV of $4k and 15 licenses at a time vs Seibel $100k/1k
        • Go after the larger competitors when you have thousands of customers and users ecstatic about your product
      • Won’t run into competitors directly, just objections to your own system, since it’s incomplete
        • Valuing you against their internal/custom solution – take time to create product maturity before prematurely scaling
    • If you’re not missing as an investor, you aren’t taking enough shots
      • 1x your capital if you miss compared to if you pass, miss on 10x or 100x
      • At Benchmark, they’re making 5-10 investments per year, so it’s 1-2 per partner
    • Recruiting and sales – candidates have to feel very good as they go through the proces
      • Only way to scale the software business is to hire the best people to make the software
    • Hard to stand out in SF as an enterprise software integration problem (Mulesoft)
      • Competing with FAANG in a limited labor market, have to be able to recruit amazing talent
      • For start-ups, they have 2 advantages: really exciting for them to embrace remote talent (global market)
        • Running a remote company at scale has very little to do with the tools, and more so with the work culture that’s friendly
        • Everyone meets remotely on video, even in same room
        • Writing a lot of documentation, transparency about thinking in the wikis docs so anyone can catch up
      • Offline ad inventory is very efficient – account-based enterprise software ads at airports – targeting top of funnels
      • How do you transmit a culture that was highly efficient in 10 person to 20 or 100 or 1000 and further, if you’re doing 100% each year
        • 1/2, 1/4, 1/8 haven’t been there for more than 1 year, 2 years, 3, etc..
    • Most portable of early stage investing – Bill Gurley’s blog on CAC and LTV
      • Going down unit economic traps are widely applicable to all tech businesses, consumer, enterprise, etc
        • Can’t drive spreadsheet growth with CAC/inorganic growth for LTV numbers
      • Product engagement – customers in consumer and enterprise
    • Benchmark as 5 equal partners at the firm, no juniors or others
      • Don’t have a NEXT topic that they have to move on to because of this, so open-ended discussions can go very deep
        • Wide networks so they can get useful people to talk
      • Probably not a question that they can’t answer
  • Adam Draper, Founder & CEO of Boost VC (20min VC 2/24/16)
    • Seed stage accelerator, blockchain and VR
    • Before Boost, angel invested in 20+ co’s, including Coinbase, Plangrid, Practice Fusion
      • Geography – heart of SV and ecosystem of entrepreneurs, recently adding V/R to build
    • Founder of Xpert Financial after UCLA graduation, helping later stage companies raise capital in private markets
      • Made every mistake – funding, hiring, firing, product
      • Helped early-stage companies build product and raise capital, including for a friend – wanted to mentor in bulk
        • As a family, helping people get to where they want to go
    • Meeting a lot of people while raising money and helping – took him 12 months to raise his fund
      • $6.6mln after reaching out to 3k, 350 meetings and closed ~35 – basically rule of 10
    • Had 52 investments in blockchain accelerator (had about ~120 companies) among currency/contracts-based work
      • Been in industry for 3 years, seeing mature products and higher quality
    • Mentioned MuggleNet as his favorite blog and TechCrunch
    • JoyStream by a solo founder, trying to merge BitTorrent / BTC
  • Coronavirus (a16z 16min on the News #21, 1/29/20)
    • Judy Savitskaya – 2019-nCoV – 10-20% common cold vs epidemic ones would be severity
    • Sequencing this virus has been incredibly quick (within 2 weeks of genome) whereas it’s taken longer in past
      • If someone in SF said they had a cold at a general clinic, they could decide if it’s this or not
      • Figuring out treatments and protocols based on genome and live medicine
    • Spike proteins used to enter into lung cells didn’t look as bad as SARS, so they thought it was fine
      • Turns out that it’s actually very similar to the protein
    • Nobody really knows – animal sources of viruses (evolving away from human hosts, time in animals)
      • R0 – number of people you’d expect to get sick for every one person that has it
      • Breaking down variables in R0 – how well does virus transmit itself (easy in air, for instance)
        • Is it good at infecting cells? What’s the population like? (Chinese New Year and traveling often)
      • If virus is not that deadly, additional time in the host that can get infected (individually, if deadly and fast, population better)
    • Increase in genomic medicine – Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations gave out 3 grants to pharma co’s totaling $12.5mln
      • 12-16 weeks time to develop new drugs based on the new sequence
  • Epic Battles in Healthcare, FICO Changes (a16z 16min on the News #22, 2/6/20)
    • FinTech GP’s Angela Strange and Anish Acharya
    • Starting with what is a FICO score – 5 factors: payment history, credit utilization, length of history, new credit, credit mix
      • FICO 2, 3, and 10 now as FICO comes out with reweighting
        • 1 trillion in credit card debt now, so people refi from 25% to 12% loans, but it doesn’t change user spending habits
        • Better job of incorporating debt over a long period of time
      • Designed in 1950s to create a proxy for willingness to pay, originally – now, it’s mostly lenders that have their own algorithms
      • Good lenders will use FICO as a factor but they have their own robust models
    • Hacks such as adding kids as authorized users
    • Old time, 50-100 years credit decisions made on generations, kids play ball with bankers, etc
      • Bank of Italy (now Bank of America), would make loans to Italian immigrants that other banks wouldn’t lend to
      • 2 drivers – willingness and ability to pay
    • International vs US – in US, most decisions decided on score/report, not alternative data
      • In international countries, great way to bootstrap a lending business as a proxy for consumer
      • Difficult to introduce alternative data in the US , cash flow streams for instance
    • Epic’s CEO (EHR information on data) letter sent – with Julie Yoo bio GP
      • Rule that’s been around for 1 year in context of a longer standing law
        • Opening healthcare records from ONC (Office of National Coordinator for CMS), gov agencies overseeing healthcare spend
      • 21st Century CURES Act – Upton and Waldon – means by which we implement the act (healthcare costs will rise, care will suffer)
        • Contending with nonprofit orgs with slim margins
      • Uniquely stored in healthcare data is the doctors’ context (and dialogue) – for what reason would you need the context vs “code”
      • Connecting data between APIs and interoperability – major concept
    • Clause in rule about screenshot sharing – contractual obligations not to share screenshots
      • In trying to see a workflow in a system to connect yours efficiently – one of Julie’s customers at EHR company got hand-slapped for sharing
    • Annual meeting with OMB and ONC for driving sharing and interoperability – Epic wasn’t there – everyone else, systems, plans, incumbents, big tech, EHRc
      • HHS secretary was saying that scare tactics won’t affect what they’re looking for
  • Introduction to ARK’s Big Ideas 2020 (FYI 1/13/20)
    • James Wang interviewing Cathie Wood, CEO/CIO at ARK Invest
      • Building on other years – DL, EV, 3D printing, autonomous ride hailing, automation, genome sequencing, digital wallets and Bitcoin
    • New ones – streaming media, aerial drones and biotech R&D efficiency
    • Streaming media – changing behavior patterns should catapult the industry, roughly $80-90bn, projecting $400bn+ in next 4 years
      • Most people couldn’t understand why she was buying Amazon at $5bn cap at her old firm (when no profits)
        • Believed about their revenues would increase CAGR at 25% for 20 years, deep value play (exp growth wasn’t understood)
      • Terrible sales out of box retailers – want to survive and go to online
      • Gaming could consume media, so is value in content or platforms (say, Tencent showing the way, maybe) – larger than box office now
        • Every time music has come out, it has cannibalized the other, older parts as replacement
        • Gaming was different – expansive, explosive market as stacking (mobile only added to consoles and others)
    • Aerial drones – early side of S curve still – released a paper in 2014 suggesting that if FAA would allow Amazon to deliver parcels over 10 mi
      • Amazon, at that time, could have done it profitably for just $1 per parcel for 5 lb package, for instance
      • Food delivery now, air taxis / passenger drones and given battery tech, could save 20k lives associated with heart attacks – drone faster than ambulance
        • Projecting $275bn food delivery (3mi Delivery for cars is about $4.85 – $5) – drones could do it for $.20, profitably
    • Biotech R&D Efficiency as converging Nextgen sequencing, AI, CRISPR editing
      • Impact on pharma and biotech sector
      • Fewer trial failures with DNA sequencing and companion diagnostics for trials, time to market decrease
        • Human trials, CRISPR is curing things such as Beta-_ and sickle cell (2 people)
      • Value-based pricing could be installment payments, for every year you live – reduction of trials and drugs to market, higher pricing utility
        • Margin structure could follow more of 1980s and 90s (mid20-30s) – innovations were exhausted from there, but now should be innovative
      • CRISPR and gene therapies are delivering great results, cures and evidence of these
        • AI and software side with mundane, life science has supported SaaS company in Viva – extremely motivated for productivity structure
        • Most AI companies doing R&D drug discovery are early, M&A ripe – tech in Alpha Go search problems, for instance
      • Analysts can’t just be healthcare, have to be technology as well – permeating every sector
    • Over past year, innovation has been highly valued in private space – too few opportunities with too much capital
      • Private is valued much higher – seeing some disappointments, public markets should be ripe (P/E ratio is not ideal)
      • 5 year opportunities, not 1-2 timeline and finding out how much growth they’re going to deliver

How to Motivate Yourself to Build (Notes from Jan. 27 to Feb. 2, 2020) July 22, 2020

Posted by Anthony in cannabis, DFS, Digital, Draftkings, education, experience, FanDuel, global, Leadership, medicine, NFL, social, sports, Strategy, Time, training, WomenInWork.
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Nope, I’m asking. Not telling. It’s constantly a challenge.

Let’s see. A will to win. Certain things provide you a much clearer picture of an end goal. In life or careers, there is often always a next step for those that are driven. I know many people that have said it’s not a linear path, and therefore you see steps/ladders that may be uneven. It’s hard to take that into consideration to pursue action, then, especially if you’re back at square one. It must be some secondary motivator that keeps us looking forward.

I have an idea page of things I want to pursue. Talking about potential pursuits may be a first step. Talking with others, another. Writing them down allows a concrete step toward accountability. Then, what’s next? Talk to potential customers, people in the space, people that could be of interest. Design something, wireframe or code out a rough sketch. Maybe it’s something to see how much of a concrete idea it is. Ideas sometimes just need another opinion to spur passion – whatever can provide the spark to go further.

With a next step in a career, an idea written out for the next step can be a good thing. Approaching mentors or potential mentors or bosses (strategically) may be that step of accountability. The more people involved, the more likely that path could be disrupted as incentives to provide clear steps wane. The earlier you find that out, the better. It’s unfortunate but situations and circumstances can change on a whim for anyone, so it compounds with involvement of others. I’ve seen that time and time again with friends.

Now, I hope I didn’t discourage with that last paragraph. That wasn’t my intention. So, here’s some good news – work has become increasingly global with the progression of the internet / web, more so this year. There are more people online sharing, collaborating, open to discussion with minimal work except seeking the communities out. Tools are better organized and more broadly applied to help, and more people are generally sharing their experience for us to pattern match or adjust. Action is the step. Or asking what the action may be. Take it together.

  • Coach Paul Alexander, Josh Hermsmeyer (Wharton Moneyball 1/22/20)
    • If you pit OL vs DL – OL is more reliable, similar to pitcher vs batter and pitcher wins
    • Beane in Moneyball – didn’t have money to spend so he wanted to get shots at college players since they were less random
      • PFF using survival curves (as time) for measuring lines (from PFF data scientist Timo Riske)
    • 16 of 17 INTs for Mahomes has been < 5 rushers
    • Coach – more hand-oriented now in passing game than leg-driving or shoulders for the evolution of run blocking
    • Josh – turned his attention to music and predicting the first song for halftime show
      • Prop from last year – how long will the national anthem last?
        • Over time, singer spent on song increased (ARIMA model) and he looked at male and female but female was longer at end
        • Gladys ended up going over
      • Billboard is predicting JLo’s most popular song – 20% as Let’s Get Loud or On The Floor (books, too)
        • Acts don’t often start with the most popular song, they end it
        • Setlist.fm as going through common starts
      • Game plan to push as many in the box with the numbers advantage, force Jimmy G to beat them
    • Some quantitative coaching models at PFF and other places
      • Mostert as the 2nd fastest athlete in NFL at the line, behind only Lamar Jackson, by mph
    • Helpful to sit behind someone as QB? (Jimmy, Rodgers, Mahomes) but counters as Peyton (thrown in), Steve Young
      • Qb as living embodiment of the system, not necessarily ‘system qb’
      • When do we get a handle on a QB?
    • Owners as billionaires that earned money in a different industry and hope to be able to transition to teams
      • Experience may or may not come – putting right people in there, getting lucky with all of the processes
      • Little edges, enough chances and them adding up together to finally have success while living through the ups and downs
  • Ian Levy, Michael Hill (Wharton Moneyball 1/29/20)
    • Super Bowl week, Kobe Bryant death – Shaq statement and Kendrick Perkins clamoring for hatchet to be buried with Kdurant
    • MJ’s 3 and 2 years off and then another 3 – only had Scottie as the overlap of players
      • Kobe – 2 rings but 3 straight finals with Pau, sans Shaq, Lebron – taking some poor players and winning rings
      • Teams and styles that have changed to give credit to the great ones
    • Sac down 17 points with 2min 49 sec – broke a streak of 8,378 straight games of losses
  • Dr. Shaili Jain, Prof of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, PTSD Treatment, author of “Unspeakable Mind” (Wharton XM, Future of Everything)
    • Father was a war vet & born in India, Shaili grew up in England and what she ever knew
    • Muted emotions, insidious infiltration of how people work, play and create beyond mind and brain
      • Infiltrates organs, independent risk factors for heart disease, cancer
    • Too many factors, 1/3 genetic (not on marker-level, though) to determine PTSD levels or exposure
      • Dose matters – more deployments = more likely, and cumulative effects
    • Average clinicians outside of VA have a tough time to diagnose & treat whereas vets and exposed know where they can see it
      • Adherence is much lower in people with PTSD and this is massively under-recognized
    • Last thing people want to do is talk to therapists – avoided trauma or be cut off, isolated
      • Health problems often make them lose control
    • Hippocampus is smaller in those with PTSD (not sure if it’s cause or effect), amygdala (part of brain that controls danger)
      • Lot of work done in epigenetics, learned behaviors and environment (followed moms that were pregnant during 9/11, escaped)
        • Work done by Rachel at Mt Sinai to follow their children based on biomarkers – PTSD in them/child
    • Her take – future is in prevention on three levels – primary, secondary and tertiary
      • Primary: prevent the traumas and crimes
        • Lots of people were starting programs that FELT like it worked w/o evidence or metrics for them
          • How do you train women to defend themselves effectively? If you have it, you can scale and replicate. Still need $
      • Secondary: before and after trauma – “Golden Hours” – can you intervene to prevent onset of PTSD?
        • Showing up in ER, instead of waiting for weeks/months/years when they show up to a therapist
        • Group out of Atlanta’s Emory University in the ER that did RCTs to show those that got prolonged exposure medicine improved
          • Cortisol recipients had less PTSD compared to those that didn’t – brain can heal quickly, comparatively
      • Tertiary: integrated care – 10 years prior, she ditched her other-campus psychiatry office to primary care
        • People show up in primary care, not often in specialty offices, attack head on
    • Treatment – first line, standard therapy would be talk therapy (prolonged exposure, EMDR – eye movement desensitization & reprocessing)
      • Focus on dismantling trauma, discussing the event
      • Biggest body of evidence for this being successful as first-line treatment, discussion capability without emotional/physical stress
        • Exposure exercises – measurable body response
      • Meds as second-line treatment (prozac and friends)

Power of Consistency (Notes from Jan. 20 to Jan 26, 2020) July 8, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Acquisitions, Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, Digital, experience, finance, Gaming, global, Leadership, marketing, RPA, Strategy, Time, TV.
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It’s impressive for how much consistency matters, as long as you’re open.

Sometimes, it’s every week. Maybe it’s daily. Maybe more than that? Is it a post? Is it a photo? Tweeting 10x a day? There is probably some magic number for each frequency, based on platform and content that, over time, eventually takes off. I don’t think it’s spelled out because there are likely ranges for each. That’s the beauty of the internet, now. Niches are actually very large – and if you’re consistent in posting about something you enjoy – eventually, if you landed in a sweet spot, you may be rewarded for it. The opportunity arises where you land on an audience of a community you enjoy being a part of – and now you can share at will. It becomes easier to be public.

Maybe the ease by which any of us continue down this path is rooted in the writing or habit itself. Maybe it’s your work. Maybe how you spend your money. A tool you use? Something you picked up knowledge from friends or a trend you happened to stumble on in a podcast that piqued your interest. Any way you draw it up, if you can repeatedly talk about it and enjoy it, it stays the course. If you’re public in a manner that others can find you, you can reach that audience.

It feels like we have plenty of solutions to get this out – it takes the effort of an individual or group of individuals to be motivated enough to repeatedly produce that content. Thankfully, I write a bit here and on Twitter, mostly. Should be more consistent myself. Used to be a part of a weekly podcast. Now I feel like I have ideas to push others – without accountability, it falls off. Groups and communities like Indie Hackers, No-code and Makerpad or other niches on Facebook/LinkedIn/Slack/Discord, Substack or even WordPress here provide that. Seek your people out!

  • CES 2020 – Screens, 8K, 5G, Cars, Micromobility, Smart Home (16 Minutes News by a16z 1/18/20)
    • Flexible screens in phones (Samsung), folding – around a business as billboard
      • Fold and unfold – suboptimal experience for usage of the phone outside of big screens
      • Phones as biggest volume driver in displays – grow market
      • Should make folding PC was next step – Dell, Lenovo, Intel (B5 is half A4 – tablet-sized to 11 or 12″ notebook)
        • Mainstream high-performance folding screens and touch surfaces – everywhere you go
    • Screens and production process now on Moore’s Law, as well
      • Production too fragmented, software in tv slows down innovation
      • 8K will happen but it will cost more
    • WiFi 6, 5G at current and new mm
      • 20 carriers are spending $100bn extra a year to roll this out
      • Last mile is the battle – IEEE for WiFi – commodity access points, sim cards
    • Cars stealing show – Sony, this year
    • Power battery – USB-C is now the AC input of the home
      • Batteries and storage for energy will be everything very shortly
  • Rob Salvagno, VP of Corp Dev at Cisco Investments (20min VC 12/30/19)
    • M&A efforts, investment capital, lead Meraki ($1.2bn acquisition) and AppDynamics ($3.7bn), along with recent Duo ($2.3bn)
      • Prior investment banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
    • Went to Stanford thinking he wanted to be a doctor, Netscape went public in early days there and wanted a way into tech
      • Wanted to go into investment banking or consulting – entry into tech was IB, first in SF then in Sand Hill – analyst at DLJ (president at Oracle’s first analyst)
      • Very transactional without any role or ownership – sent resume into resume @ Cisco . Com and got his role
    • Investments or M&A, bringing perspective – boom over past decade but we lived through 2000-01 and 07-08
      • How’s this business model stand up without capital flowing? How’s the CEO going to perform in challenging times? Growth multiple of 20-30x
      • Capital efficiency: attractive of business model – will look at valuations
        • Cisco wants to know if they create value in business, what are the levers for that – distribution channel, product within their architecture
        • Can improve operating model in a few ways – accelerate profitability with Cisco (growing at 30%, but maybe 60%)
    • Cisco starts with their measure of CorpDev – can they get company to do something that they wouldn’t be able to do with them
      • Companies think they can often do things on their own – Cisco recognizes the broader source of innovation within VC and outside capital
      • Strategy first and deal second – work hand-in-hand with biz unit to collaborate with teams inside to shift pov for where to go
        • Acquisitions can get them there – magic happens with the business units inside Cisco
    • Motivation for investment wants to make portfolio companies successful to help Cisco
      • Believe opp to invest in best-in-class company in market that is interesting – tight partnership over 2 quarters or 3 years, shared expectations
      • High multiple transaction to be avoided isn’t necessarily true
    • If you’re GM of Cisco Security Business – outside innovation as strategy is fundamental for the business
      • If you decided acquisition makes sense, have to position it for success inside Cisco from financial, opex, funding position
      • Levels of approval to CFO, CEO compared to billion-dollar acq with board (mentions AppDynamics acquisition within 3 days of their IPO)
      • More PE firms getting involved into tech companies is better for the business and more innovation
        • Multiples that are unprecedented for PE firms
    • SDRAM, iRAM – 10-12 startups for big market and seemingly new oppy
      • Cisco had an internal company and went out to talk to startup called MetaCloud
        • Market started to take off and they looked at M&A – scan of industry, acquired
    • Cisco has done 200+ acquisitions, knows their mistakes
      • Platform to accelerate founder visions, they’re also enabled – David Yooliwitch (Founder of OpenDNS, former Cisco investment)
        • Acquired, 100mln company but David became head GM of Security of Cisco – multibillion
    • Difficult with Cisco – going from hardware to cloud – belief in a successful transition
    • Changing about tech industry – entrepreneurs not getting best advice when they need it (first time vs multiple, etc..)
    • CloudCherry – acq in collab – customer journey and future of work – predictive analytics on contact center (how to deal with customers)
      • 2nd acq – Voicea – AI and ML on top of Cisco portfolio (ex WebEx – transcribe, meeting notes, flag action items agreed and integrate into workflow)

Best Ways to Push People to Create (Notes from Jan 13 to Jan 19, 2020) June 30, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, NBA, social, sports, storytelling, Strategy, Time, TV, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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So, my title is a bit misleading because I don’t have the answer. It’s a bit annoying. I have many friends and family members that will cite an interest in making something, or even more generally, wanting something to be made. I try to encourage if there’s even an interest of a consistency in what they’re looking to do. It’s worth sharing if they enjoy it. Encouragement isn’t the part that’s lacking. There’s an accountability or fear of not having the time be worth it.

To me, that’s a bit of a weakness. Sure, you can be scared that it won’t be monetarily advantageous to do it – but that’s the part where your own curious/enjoyment makes up for it. If you’re interested, you may be more likely to generally share and stay consistent than if you’re not. Immediate gratification doesn’t go hand-in-hand with consistency, though. And then the starting point usually has a bit of work. All of this adds up to psyching oneself out before ever starting. All the while, we continue scrolling to the next thing, wondering aloud how nice it seems to be sharing something that we’re moderately interested in.

  • Peter Guber, Dodgers/Warriors co-owner (KindredCast – WhartonXM)
    • Lion Tree CEO Aria Borkhov with Chairman/CEO of Mandalay Entertainment, 4 sports teams
    • Hollywood productions for 5 Best Picture nominations (Rain Man winner), Midnight Express, Flash Dance, Batman, Soulsurfer
      • “Tell to Win” best-selling author
    • Also owner of Team Liquid and LA FC, professor at UCLA Anderson, Media
    • Recorded at the end of WS 2018 – never before having World Series Game 7 at Dodgers stadium
    • Can’t just make hits – ups-and-downs are part of the journey, can’t fail will make it so you don’t have success
    • Missed out on Dodgers originally when McCourt was buying from FOX, but asked to put up money at last hour, so he backed out
      • Magic brought him in 9 years later and he was more familiar since he owned the AAA team in Oklahoma City
      • Culture providing leadership and top-down, being managing partner
      • Bring best talent, resourcefulness, undervalued performance from someone as surprises, having a long and short-game
        • If short-term doesn’t work, the long-term rarely is cared for
    • Caring fully for his team – listen to the audience and imagine their experience is theirs and creating relationships
      • Crucial since you can’t get another audience every time – music, movies, sports
      • Brand affinity as breeding success – crucial that word-of-mouth is more powerful than a 30second clip anywhere
        • Looks at it like bond / what the product means for people
      • Audiences expect experiences (how do they feel, what’s the benefit, life) – customers/consumers are looking to spend only / wallets
    • Media – Game 6 had 2nd best since 2009 for viewership
      • How do you get technology into media? Twitter paid $10mln with football, Amazon paid $50mln, Facebook with MLB
      • Linear broadcasting – audience getting every media at once, same way – can’t act on it (analog to digital)
        • Know the individual audience, can talk to friends/you directly – interface with social group, react and a participant
        • Cultivate participation – don’t know about all people generally but now, know the particulars
      • Digital natives – always growing, never had cords – companies need both linear and digital sense
      • Dancing with the enemy – like to kill the other, one is an ally/adversary at different times
      • Can’t take an analog advertisement and plunk it on to digital – won’t be the same
      • When he was in China doing business, he had to go through an interpreter – didn’t have the same feeling/attitude
      • Each sport has unique challenges (and movies) – movie-going has turned into “going to a movie”
        • Driving away from habituation (movie on Fridays) vs (“Let’s go to A movie”)
    • Narrative of baseball – can look at different things, fantasy, play-by-play and story
      • Basketball is rapid so you have to address down-time in a different format – paces are more important (digital can help)
      • Gambling will introduce a new evolution – betting on emotions, last-pitch, blowouts will be important still
    • Esports – Team Liquid in SC2, LoL, HotS, Overwatch, Halo, CoD, DotA
      • True digital native and a culture change – lifestyle connection is different
      • Became invested in technology after joining Sony and his unique way – his life is connection of artists and audiences
        • How do you create value and multiply value?
        • Consumption with esports as 3 things – expansion, underserving market, global, participatory (could play along)
        • Esports as the music for 18-25 now, lights up their heart (“shut off that music”), engagement attraction
      • Have to understand the language, special – challenge to make money
    • Escape velocity for colleges and training, scholarships – getting older
      • Only got into esports Mark Merrill (Riot Games) came to leadership course and was talking about League of Legends, lit him up
    • Advertising planning, consumer information, still very early
      • 1 to 1 engagement is the biggest difference – 1 to many probably outdated or less effective
    • Made a long bet on VR – 5 years ago – they’re the director – mediators give you the meaning
      • Technology as existing for PoC for phone call where you could turn the fight or a game on
    • Fav movie: Godfather 2, Witness — Fav person: Fidel Castro when Peter was doing a show on diving
      • Unbelievably interesting (Castro)
    • Reading: Sapiens (rec for Undoing Project), Thinking Fast & Slow
  • Amy Abernethy (@DrAbernethyFDA), Principal Commissioner of FDA, Vijay Pande, GP on Bio Fund at a16z (a16z Podcast 1/14/20)
    • Food, Drugs, and Tech – 100 Years of Public Health
    • 113 years ago formed out of 100 laws – hygiene issues as science-based agency
      • Safe and effective medical products to be used with your patients
    • Have to come up with flexible mechanisms to avoid and take risks when appropriate
      • Risk-based scientific decision-making, review and expectation of certain risk in products
      • Hepatic failure, may take a person’s life, urgency of problem with number of people of impact, public perception/expectation
      • De-risk: try to ensure pre-conditions are met, toxicity, consistent expectations around clinical effectiveness
    • How does FDA (mentions possible show for crises a la CSI: FDA) deal and think of crises?
      • Medical products could have any crises issues (animals, vapes, food, drugs, biologics, devices, cosmetics)
        • Distribution of potential crises are very real – opioid crisis as slowly creeping up – as information accumulates, problem ID
      • Agency – action plan for several parts on what FDA responsible for
        • What can they do to reduce problem? Reduce patient tablets accessible to, for instance.
          • Can increase methods for access for patient-informed labeling.
        • New treatments for pain and solving problem otherwise
    • 20% of international GDP regulation under FDA and 15% of food imported so needs to be safely labeled, available in country
      • Investigate trucks across border that aren’t available over borders
      • PREDICT program – 10 years old rules engine where they are most likely to have unsafe food
    • Drug shortages – have intervened ahead of 160 drugs for shortages there along with the opposite – what happens if there is one
      • Food-borne illnesses to avert problems and they have these discussions in the morning
    • Kits off Amazon for CRISPR – dog glow in the dark, for instance
      • CAR-T as T-cells to re-engineer to supercharge and put back into patient
    • Improving software products that help the world of controls
      • How does FDA think about data privacy and ownership?
        • Practically, proprietary information and confidential. Drug surveillance that might be more publicly available.
      • In CIO role, she wants a Chief Privacy Role – when brought up, data even in HIPAA may be re-identifiable
    • Platform trials – enabling features within 21st century cures
    • Some company/investigators not wanting to subject only product into clinical evidence framework to figure out – especially only shot on goal
      • Taking a while to determine this
      • Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 – contemplation of new payment delivery models, Institute of Medicine research for digital infra in 2007
      • 2008 – GFCrisis for stimulus bill to get the High Tech Act for full-scale distribution of Elec Health Records in 2009
      • Nov 2016 – 21st Century Cures got pulled from shelf as they tried to figure out which was bipartisan opinions
    • Food – FDA part, genetic engineer and synthetic biology – talking with USDA to draw the lines here
      • With new innovations, do we need to change regulatory paradigm?
      • How do we ensure consumers know what’s going on? Labels / consistent language (ex: almond milk)
    • Smarter Food Safety – possibility for each food to have a full supply chain that we can check on (whether app-enabled, blockchain)
    • For future of FDA – far more processes automated using the glut of more data
  • Seth Walder (@sethwalder), ESPN Sports Analytics Writer; Alexandra Mandrycky, Dir of Hockey Admin for Seattle (Wharton Moneyball, 1/15/20)
    • Plus minus for receivers, how the NFL will do statistics
      • Different than hockey +/- but far more team-involved
    • Talking an Analytics Coverage for the CFP Championship – what is advantageous, expected, etc
      • Good sports information – bettors can make it as they will – actionable or not
    • Daily Wager show – betting and sports and new statistics
      • “Sacks created”, for instance – Zendarius Smith, lead league with 20+ and we’re double-teamed the most often
    • Sherman as only targeted 14%, very low for outside corner (one side only – right side)
    • Quantitative Analyst, Danny Chu for second person on the hockey side
  • Cynthia Medina, Founder & CEO of WAGER (Women at Work, WhartonXM)
    • Pay equity discussion – safe space for transparent talks
    • 15 years as exec recruiter, talent consultant, leadership coach and technical recruiting
      • International relations and policy expert for DoHS, Treasury, JPM
      • Served in Peace Corps as well, and founded Cheeky Monkey (women who don’t want to network)
    • Thinking in 3-5 year intervals for Jones C Mitchell – personal level for Cynthia, though
      • Short windows of time, managed by feel – not vision
      • She has 29 aunts/uncles (parents of 15, 14) – curiosity for her but not overall something she was chasing
      • 0 had gone to college, first in family to graduate, get a passport, live abroad
    • Lots of layaway for Kmart (waiting 6-9 months), also used to visit Puerto Rico every summer with family – layaway, also
      • Friend group established college as a norm – chose Georgetown since her uncle liked the basketball team
      • She had no sense of the power structure in the US – information and what she was learning
        • Pushes people to apply to hard universities – to be able to make change
    • After college – didn’t have a job – got an internship, needed to know she could do it without help
      • Finance area for GAP HQ, could do it (had stayed on a couch initially when she went to SF)
      • Then, decided what she wanted – went to Peace Corp and was the “chicken girl” in Nicaragua
        • Taught how to make a business with microlending loans ($100)
    • After Peace Corps – big picture idea for what’s next? Same person – senior year teacher who told her to apply for GU
      • Applies to Harvard – needed a big push – elevating yourself on your own, focus on international affairs
      • Friend at the time was in the area for 9/11 – saw / felt things on 9/11, so 9/12 she went to NY and been with her husband since
      • Felt like she’d done enough for herself, now wanted to serve again – worked for NYPD CT unit, Treasury – anti-terrorist financing
        • Latin American policy expert for the anti-terrorist work
      • She was in DC, husband in NY at the time
    • Started a family – husband had to go to SF for his job, 1 child (3-6months but turns out to be 2 years)
      • Everyone else was happy, now time to do what she wanted
      • Wanted flexibility, good at basics, people – razor-like skills on interview process (first for free, then charge)
      • Told what she was doing, advertised it, did her LinkedIn
    • Driven by wanting other people to feel content. Having lots of conversations with people who aren’t doing it correctly
      • Asking for right amount, not asking for what they should get
      • Let’s keep good people by being radically transparent – telling husband that she wished all salaries for two days were public
        • Husband, a manager, gave reasons against it (creates more work for managers) – jealousy and infrastructure
      • She BCCed 500 friends – sent email to pair people for salary conversations (1:1) in industry
        • Send LinkedIn and tell her how much everyone made – nothing happened for 12 hours
          • Men, often, would say it’s too personal / we’re good / exec-level where info would be adversely used
          • “My wife doesn’t even know how much I make”
      • Example for 2 people who are now friends of hers – exec woman, exec man – he was making $100/hr more
        • She didn’t want to know how much he was making (he offered)
        • Big data problem – once you know, you have to do something and that’s often where people will fall off
        • Creating database, sheets and sharing this – nothing to do with action / companies doing different things
    • With more data, what did she discover and finding the needs?
      • Certain industries, large pay gaps – media, marketing, certain places
        • conversation / article at Google – same levels, women > men but because they were staying longer at levels
      • Making the same in cases but women felt like they didn’t have the same respect / something they weren’t getting
        • Baggage conversations still – persistent imposter syndrome, even when paid well, still work to be done
          • Ability to self-advocate is always around – empowerment to demand space
      • Does workshops out/in companies – compensation with employees in large companies (inc. tech)
      • Example: new shift to tech company – not CEO but 2nd in command or “I’m young”
        • Often hear “well my husband makes more than enough so I don’t need to push”
        • “Money is not as important to me” – don’t see it as failing, afraid, embarrassed to say they want more, know I’m great
      • People will justify when CEOs or execs leave, company wants to bring in diversity hire and pay 60% – women go in to find
    • Have to ask what you want? If you want to be a manager but haven’t managed anyone.
      • Is there an ability or opportunity for you where you want to be?
      • If you don’t know what you want – someone will put you where they need you.
        • Haven’t made a decision. If it matters for $125k to do these 4 things, need to make actions to get there.
      • She likes helping people negotiate when they don’t have to – “have to” in short timeframe – next job is when you get promoted
      • Networking as you build relationships before you need them – started Cheeky Monkey because of motivation and clients
  • Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor at London Business School, chairman at Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge (Meb Faber #100, 3/19/18)
    • Author of Triumph of the Optimists – producing the indexes, small cap 100 in London
    • 10 countries, a century of data, including the UK for returns
      • Found lots of researchers had general interest in more financial returns historically and added them to the book #2 (2000 years Millennium Book #2)
      • Optimists were those that invested in common shares over bonds/T-bills in companies, which is why they named it thus
    • Found out that about 80% of industries that existed at start of century disappeared, and 2/3 of those that exist today didn’t exist then
    • Bond market in 1900 existed of some bonds with short maturity like 6-8 years, or in London, had perpetual bonds
      • Composition of mutual fund then vs now – always changing, industries decline and come up
      • Very few survive over the long term – perfectly viable investment strategy as changing
    • Countries that were utterly important – assets survived but ownership changed completely (1917 – Russia and 1940s – China)
      • Making the World Index, history for each country, assets going to zero and Index as the same
    • Idea that economic growth, GDP growth and stock market returns – discovered a negative relationship between them
    • Thinking about valuations – market caps (Japan in 1980s as biggest, US as 50% now)
      • Market cap-weighting as only consistent one
      • Interest rates in 21st century have been way down, real interest rates TIPS / inflation-linked bond of 4%
        • Average now is negative .5 %, promising $1 now, < $1 back later. Gordon model – value of a financial security = D / (r – g)
      • Focus is on real interest rates, nominal is adjusted by inflations in each country (which can be different)
        • Real interest rates were lower in 1970s (minus 10% when inflation was 25%+ and yields were 10-15%)
        • Negative real interest rates are about 1/3 of their 2000+ country years (118+ years, 20+ countries)
          • What’s different/rare now – low real interest rates with low inflation and low nominal interest rates
    • Want to bring currency back – most is driven by relative inflation compared to the US – long term it protects you, short term, hurts
    • Tilting away from market cap-weighting, seeing other factors that may or may not make sense
      • Factors measure exposure to attributes of companies (relative size, growth, otherwise)
      • Some factors have a reward – growth companies do well (no premium), value companies instead that show reward
        • Rewards for exposure to particular factors (in hindsight, clear) may not sustain into the future
        • Smart beta, Five Factor model, liquid common stock vs illiquid maybe (mutual fund wanting liquidity may take lower return)
    • For his book’s update, added a new chapter for Global Investment Returns Yearbook
      • Looking at durable, tangible assets – real estate is smaller (domestic aggregate real estate is smaller)
        • Expected return on housing – between financial return for long-term bonds and equities
          • Expected volatility is also in between those
    • His grandmother had a wine shop, he’s done studies on investment returns for 1900 on, postage stamps, wine, etc
      • Best wine as Claret, First Growth Bordeaux, Premier Cru
    • Best investment – his education, PhD at LBS and then Cambridge

What Do You Want to Happen (Notes Jan 6 – Jan 12, 2020) June 22, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Data Science, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, marketing, medicine, Politics, storytelling, Strategy, Time, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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It’s amazing how quickly the weeks go by in this pandemic time. Wherever you’re reading, I hope the lack of patience of the general public to rush outside was limited because in the bay area over the last 2 weekends, it’s the opposite. A rush of public places opening up brought all of the public in droves. Streets are crowded again and the freeways were packed through the weekend.

I posted earlier today about continuing to see webinars/conferences that are occurring remotely. This does increase access. But as far as engagement, I’m afraid for many, the reason for past attendance of the big conferences was the networking / interacting face-to-face. Also, there’s a staying power of people being in person. In reflecting on many of my own conferences, there’s the coffee chats each morning, the lunches of discussions, happy hours or dinners thereafter. These cannot be replicated in the virtual world to the same effect for many. It’s likely split – the increase of attendance by anyone anywhere is certainly a boon to the industry – wider spread of important and fundamental ideas/people is probably worth the loss. However, it’s a bit unfortunate in the spirit of the big conferences.

I’d be fascinated to see sponsorship groups, facility and hospitality adjustments to the different trend. DataScience Go was this weekend, which has had both remote events and annual treks to San Diego over the past ~5 years with excellent people. I’ve made quite a bit of virtual and real friendships from these events, and hope to be able to in the future. They had a solid platform with an Expo virtual room, “main stage”, as well as sponsored chats and hackathons. I do think that this was a good step in providing the opportunity to do many of the things we look for in reality – better could be the illusion of a real-world conference, maybe in augmented / virtual reality where you’re controlling an avatar and attending in a piece – 5 years maybe? Likely 10 for the areas that would need to catch up tech-wise. I’m hopeful.

Hope you enjoy the following notes – Naveed has progressed many companies forward that inspire future technology or movements into new spaces, Pauline Brown discussed LVMH and luxury retails control over items of want instead of need, as well as Cesar Kuriyama’s obsession with TED talks, building and design of 1 Second Everyday.

  • Naveen Jain, entrepreneur of 7 co’s  (Launch Pad, Wharton XM)
    • Founder of Moon Express, Viome, InfoSpace
    • As we get older, part of aging to be human and why we should be sick
      • Yes – lifestyle diseases compared to being healthy (being sick as a choice, as well)
    • What is gut bacteria? Wrong – humans have more foreign cells than human cells from parents
      • Genes from parents are 22k protein-producing genes vs 40 tn microbes in the gut (viruses, bacteria, etc)
      • Those 40tn microbes/organisms produce 2 to 20 million genes (at best, 1% human)
    • Tuning your body and food testing repeatedly – can change every 3 months
    • Parkinson’s and microbiome, obesity, autoimmune, etc
    • Why is healthcare making money when there is a disease?
      • Nobody is making money – incentives don’t agree. Same with educatio.
    • Moon Express – high degradation, low gravity, and figuring out an interplanetary society
      • Wrong question – “How to grow food on planet?” to “What do we need to keep people alive on the moon?”
        • Energy may come from radiation, photosynthesis, nitrogen/hydrogen or something else
      • Too many people look at the symptoms of the problem compared to the root
      • Based out of Cape Canaveral, FL and has around ~35 people, Viome is 150 (Seattle)
      • Only company allowed to leave Earth orbit
    • Entrepreneurs will be the next super powers – first time in history where individuals are capable
    • Starting as passing the test in programming without knowing or having seen a computer
      • Phone interview and apparently aced it (byte vs bit – big and small) – before being sent from India to New Jersey
      • Never seen a non-white person there and he was an alien
      • Working on MS DOS 1.0 – wanted to get back to India and go back
    • Moved to SV after applying for an interview with Convergent Technologies
      • Faxed his resume – half a dozen companies
      • After a few years, he decided he wouldn’t be the best programmer – first microprocessors at Intel
      • Moved up to Microsoft in Seattle after a few startups, then OS 2 (“half the operating system”) as a program manager
    • Wanted to start InfoSpace because he saw that there would be a paradigm shift
      • Good at understanding what is coming up next – fundamental for companies doing business
      • Couldn’t see how MS could grasp how to see it in the construct of the company – too much to lose if it succeeds
      • Friday evening he decided he was done, resigned Microsoft – went home to his wife and she chewed him out [pregnant]
    • As an entrepreneur, most people want to focus on where tech is vs where it will be
      • 2.5 years he took the company public, in 1999 – bigger than Boeing and others
      • Best you can do as you become an expert – can improve product by 10-15% but can’t do 10-100x better
        • Must fundamentally challenge the foundation of the question
    • For Moon Express – asked “why do people eat food?”, for healthcare not “What organisms in your gut?” but instead “what do the organisms produce?”
      • Come up with most disruptive idea that can help a billion people and multi-100 billion company
      • Ex: lack of fresh water, can solve it – help 1 billion – if you come up with filter and desalination, can feel really good
        • Why do we have shortage of fresh water? Agriculture – solve the root cause. Aquaponic, hydroponic, aeroponic to get more water.
        • Ask next: Where does agriculture water get used for? Majority is used to feed the cattle. Can do plenty of fresh water.
          • Take stem cell from cow – just grow muscle tissues, not eyes and otherwise.
    • If you’re successful with what you’re doing – is it going to actually help millions live their life?
      • Am I passionate or truly obsessed about it? “Passion is for losers” – if you don’t jump out of bed, you’re doing something wrong.
      • What are you willing to die for? And live for it.
      • If I had everything in my life, what would I do? And you can go get it.
  • Domains 1: The .com King with Rick Schwartz (StartUp Podcast 8/31/17)
    • May 1993 could call up ATT and get (800) numbers as ‘vanity’ numbers
    • 1-800-makeout as a recording call chatline – owns the number and rents it out
      • He had $1/mo for 150 of the phone numbers, got a nice check for $7700
    • Domain name .coms after the phone numbers – December 26, 1995 – lipservice.com first
      • Used it to advertise his numbers after he pestered his brother for registering the domain names
    • Friend called him saying dick.com was available – got $200 in the first night
      • Domain collectors started secondary market – he bought porno.com for $42k
      • He offered $10k, 15k, up to 42k after kid had done $5k originally
    • Sold porno . Com for $9mil after collecting around $20 mil on the site with only “Enter Here” and selling it temporarily
    • Seat at tables of all kinds of domains – path dependency for .com (different is a bigger deal)
      • He has hotproduct, candy, ass, shoes
    • Tried to buy Gimlet.com originally – $43k at start, then $76k (or $5k down and $1k for 48 mos)
      • Owner of the registry was called and he knew the value
      • Since, they still own Gimlet.fm, .audio, .media
  • Domains 2: Sex dot com with Gary Kremen (StartUp Podcast 9/7/17)
    • 1994 Stanford MBA and undergrad in engineer, internet seemed a good place for classified ads
      • Registered domains for all the places – housing, match, sex, jobs (.com)
      • Gets investors for Match.com and brings all domains to the company except for the primary one
      • Had a falling out with the investors and he left the company, plus the domains
    • Got a call from a friend in the industry who said he didn’t own the site – Stephen Cohen
      • Cohen had claimed he had received the domain via a letter from Kremen’s old address
        • Lots of issues with letter from typos and idea that a letter saying Online Classifieds (Kremen’s company) didn’t have internet
      • Legal defamation and suit back and forth
    • Cohen would make up stuff to tie up proceedings of dropping the case while legal fees signed up
      • Friends got tired of hearing it from Gary, except Cohen who would call him (Cohen believed that Gary had stolen it from him)
      • Gary was broke – lawsuits cost him a ton and started drug spiraling out of his mind
      • In 2001, won the suit as federal judge ruled in his favor – $40mn made and $25mn to damages for Gary
      • Dozens of companies offshore and money in his wife’s name – fled to Mexico before ruling and stayed
        • Gary went after Network Solutions (one who accepted forged letter) in 2002 and ruled in his favor in 2003
        • Digital property as domain and traced from this single lawsuit
    • He was owed a ton of money – 20% was his offer for information on his reward
    • Gary was able to collect Steve’s house (used to drive him crazy) in Rancho Sante Fe on 9k sq ft
      • Had ripped out all the wires, drawers, and it was a dump – Steve’s mansion cost a fortune with maintenance
      • Tries to reinvent himself as a porn entrepreneur – trying to play the part
      • Gets an offer to sell sex.com and he closes it – can’t let go though without getting the $65mn
    • Gary invited Tim, lawyer, over in 2005 – brought on as tracking down what Steve had
      • 3 primary attorneys, 1 in Mexico, private investigator – 5 months and $200k in legal time
        • Look for assets in other parts of the world, Estonia, Norway, Bahamas, Caymans, etc
      • In 2005, Steve is arrested in Mexico and given to Border Patrol and sent to jail in San Diego
        • Pony up or don’t leave – refused to reveal money for more than a year, also deposed by Gary’s lawyers
    • Steve is released and sent back to Mexico – they have tabs on him for new businesses
    • Gary collected $14mn for the domain, house for $4mn and settlement from Network Solutions (~$12mn)
      • Steve lives on the beach and never paid a penny, while also living comfortably
  • Pauline Brown, former Chairman of North America for LVMH (Wharton XM, Marketing Matters)
    • Recent author of Aesthetic Intelligence: How to Boost It and Use It in Biz and Beyond
    • Steve Jobs had the clarity of a vision for the design
      • Aesthetic empathy as the emotional effect on people in design – not just judged by strength of processor
      • Have to start at the organizational level, not individual – if it’s not prioritized and embraced, it won’t continue
      • Low on EQ, his genius extended to the silhouettes, textures, materials – generally lifting the senses
    • Radio show called Taste Makers on Starz channel, English undergrad at Dartmouth before Wharton MBA
      • First job after Wharton – consulting in 1995 to Leveraged buyouts and private equity, at Bain
      • Moved to Estee Lauder shortly after they had gone public – Head of Strategy (one of two)
        • Strategy to move from home-grown brand with same models (US dept store-driven)
          • Move to different distributions, geographic roots and strategically acquire – M&A movement
      • 1999 splash for Sephora (from France) – had mass vs class – clear differences between the two
    • LVMH has roughly 70 individual brands – almost all stems from Europe but US is largest market
      • Her role was the regional leader in a large market – take what could’ve been complex business to insight in others
        • Mobility of talent and other areas of underleveraged points
    • Between the 2 companies, $15bn (EL) and $40 bn (LVMH) produce 0 products that people actually NEED
      • If people were asked what they expected to see on the Paris Fashion Runway, it’d look nothing like what shows up
    • If you ask what a favorite restaurant is – you expect that the food is good
      • Won’t tell you that the lighting is so good, or the acoustics are so great, or utensils
        • She used the different glasses for wine as an example of what may draw the experience
      • With Apple Store – lighting of stores, choice of textiles/absence, windows as all glass
      • Navigation to the restaurant itself – CX
    • Awareness / Taste – differences for music, taste, style and career aspects
      • We numb our senses to get through the day – she does workshops to get back into senses
      • Chairs that force poor posture, fluorescent lighting (toxicity), buzzing or background sounds and awareness of others
    • Second step – interpretation, after awareness
      • How do you feel about the senses? Why do you feel that way? Some things are good, some things are unpleasant.
        • Rock music can be energizing to one, others may react negatively
    • Third Step – articulation (Steve Jobs)
      • Masterful at articulating with precision and command what felt good to him so thousands could execute on it
      • Hiring on a designer for their home, most people are too vague, imprecise or sloppy in communicating
    • Fourth – curation
      • Presenting at a store, menu coming together – CEO, presenting a story and visual accompaniment
      • Editorial command
        • Hosting a dinner and you want to make a great meal with 10 favorite ingredients, may not go together
      • Coco Chanel – elegance is refusal
    • Course of creativity at Wharton – some best results on creativity to inspire is with constraints
    • Rarely do the most successful people have the best style – once you have the means, you don’t really care
      • Easier to make decisions on constraints occasionally – cited some students that perform better there
  • Bruce Mehlman, founder at Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas (Behind the Markets 1/10/20)
    • One of biggest things – Chinese media co can come to US but not the reverse
      • Fundamental for way China governs, see very little chance for a resolution
    • Taiwan elections coming up – current president get re-elected (pro-independence camp)
      • Market in Taiwan was higher than S&P over the past year, will get elected priced in
      • Running against her – from Traditional Taiwan Party (original that left China in 1949) – considered non-establishment
        • Lost steam as we near elections – China would prefer him as pro-China, one-China/two-systems
    • Bruce’s opinion: size of China’s market and economic power is worrisome
      • Believed greater engagement of rest of world would lead to liberalizing and reform in China
        • Have seen rise of Western-type companies, technologically
      • We don’t see greater political freedom or cooperative economics by companies
        • National champions groomed to dominate across the world, rise of new power integrating without others
      • Graham Allison, prof of Harvard went back through history back to Sparta and Athens where rising power confronted existing power
        • 12 of 16 were war, 4 of 16 peacefully
    • 1 child policy result of demographic challenges – lead to massive aging workforce to retiree where they don’t have a safety net
      • Decelerating growth and pressure on Communist party – 2 choices: fault others abroad or become an integrated, trusted global partner
    • Perceiving an era of heightened disruption, financial collapse and angry at income equality
      • Couple that with technology, historic immigration and country changing faster than expected – then throw in politics
      • Gilded Age description of 1880-1900 parallels the current (income inequality, immigration with electricity, auto, railroad)
    • When system was built, it was 15 workers to 1 retiree, 5-10 years of retirement
      • Now, 2.5 workers to 1 retiree and 1/3+ of your life in retirement, along with not having full career path
      • More businesses started in the Carter administration weekly than now in the Trump admin
      • May need to reimagine policies and regulation for innovating
      • Rising prices may not be the only measure
        • How do we expand the winner circle? Superstar Economy by McKinsey
          • Right skills, edu, sector, city – never had more opportunity to be successful and command share of spoils
          • If most people don’t have this opportunity, they’ll vote for change/populace
    • Splinter-net – Bruce thinks we’re there and it gets worse
      • Core: goals of 3 regions are radically different – regionalized internet with these rules
      • Europe: protect people and very regulatory toward tech platforms (leaders in privacy, AI regulations)
      • US: empowering people, free speech (platforms with protection for users’ saying), tons of startups but maybe not protective
      • China: control, social credit scores, access to information and anonymity – successful in AI, TenCent, Alipay, Alibaba
      • Privacy of EU regulation – allowed Google and Facebook to grow market share because others can’t comply or afford
  • Danielle Cohn, VP of Entrepreneurial Engagement and head of LIFT Labs at Comcast (Wharton XM)
    • Further research
  • Cesar Kuriyama, creator of 1SE (Indie Hackers #141, 1/2/20)
    • Bootstrapping an app to millions through persistence
    • He’s been doing it for 8.5 years, each day
    • Background in visual effects and animation, agencies/advertising at the start of his career post-art school
      • Lots of media, thought he was CS – wanted to be an animator
      • Took some time in advertising to realize that he was executing others’ ideas, not his own, so became disenfranchised
    • Saw TED Talk of Stefan Sagmeister, also an alum of Pratt school in Brooklyn – Power of Time Off
      • Every 7 years, closes down his studio and does a retirement for a year – can do different things when young than old
      • Cesar would do 100 hour weeks on deadlines
      • Memory trigger as 1 second – not quite a photograph, still bonus of sound and wanted easy to rewatch
      • Can ALWAYS relive 6 minutes (1 year)
    • Day to day life was “being creative” in lieu of a brand or project
      • 1 second everyday was to keep a journal where he wouldn’t stop after 3 days – video
      • Courtland did 6 months to take to himself – drained half his bank account and had to figure it out
    • Cesar came up with the idea – didn’t intend to squander a year off – how does he make a living on something he’s passionate toward?
      • First 6 months – not sure what he wanted to do, directed a music video in the past and in spare time
      • Techie, but wasn’t sure how to build the app – asked everyone for questions / programs / dev shops
        • This was 2012 – $100k dev shops where they said it was difficult
      • iOS dev meetups and blend in – make friends that way
        • He went to agency party that friend had invited him to – sat next to a developer at a shop
          • Was at their office (had just started after they quit their finance jobs – wanted to get biz) and met up
          • Wanted to make sure they could do it – he brought credibility, TED talk and their video – they could do $20k
          • He didn’t have $20k, he’ll launch the KickStarter to get the funding BUT he didn’t want to do it without a prototype
          • They agreed – launched in months and it worked – most backers ever, lot of press, 11k backers
        • January 2013 launch and 2 weeks after the ending of the KickStarter
    • He would watch the TED Talk of the Day everyday – Facebook posted about the first TED auditions
      • He needed to do it so he wouldn’t regret it later – counselor when he was in high school said to “Live to regret things you do, not didn’t”
      • 1 minute – 60 sec video, included 30 seconds of his 1second everyday – they chose him and 17 others to speak at an event in NYC
      • Broadcasting his idea to everyone – not caring about those that steal or hack together a clone / idea
    • Execution is what matters and he paid enough attention and love into it
    • Built app, wanted it to exist and be on the app store – make enough money passively that he can use it to supplement other work
      • Terrible business decision – app was $1, 8k pledges were $1 – rest weren’t
      • $5 would have KickStarter backer section of 3-4k names in the credits of the app
        • Tried to create higher pledges for not a lot of work
      • At time, limited to 100 beta testers and he filled them quickly (or unlimited now)
      • 50k downloads first day – support ticket per second – it was him full-time and dev shop part-time
    • First 2 years – “would finish the app” – don’t finish tech, always an update or feature
    • Liked comics growing up; interned at Marvel in college
      • Tweeted, was eventually in movie Chef because Jon Favreau enjoyed the app
      • He tweeted it off in the morning and Jon looked at his profile with the app, TED talk
        • All from because Jon said something nice about showing up to Iron Man 3 (after producing/directing IM1+2)
    • Immediate awareness of business – can’t do it himself, first couple of years – endless emails
      • Couldn’t answer support tickets because of time it took to fix the things they were about
      • Coming from art and different space, without business – not tech or Silicon Valley
    • Going to Tim Ferriss book signing at an Apple store – waited it out until 10 people were left
      • Don’t raise money, figure out a way to build without investors, a prototype (how he landed on KickStarter)
      • First year of tech ecosystem – privy to VC-land
        • Charging was weird, no tech developer/CTO was red flag, video wasn’t native yet
    • Not everyone meant to start a company, be an entrepreneur – scratch the itch, though
      • Consumes a lot, now very little excuses to start (30% of ideas estimate as without coding)
      • Moving from #17 in app store, #3, #1 in 2018 (then first week) – paid app – New Year’s was always big time
        • Made it free at start of that year with subscription tier
        • Revenue 2x (2018 – $2mn, 2017 – $1mn, etc)
    • Decided to raise without venture – Bryce Roberts, Indie.vc, Earnest Capital after recognizing need for more devs
      • 13 in September and hired 7 more alone there – company retreat
      • Joel from Buffer also invested – wanted to emulate
    • If role of social media is to incentivize more scrolling so that they can show you more ads (engagement as metric)
      • He wants to bring max value for least amount of time – exactly what you wanted to consume in 5 minutes (vs 45)
      • Being acquired isn’t particularly a goal – private life for 7+ years for some
        • Notifications to turn them on – don’t need to know these instantly (1se does 1 a day / batch)
      • Created a habit for 1 second video – fix for friends/family and that’s it – Instagram as highlights
        • He has his 1SE video – would look to be meaningless if you watch others’, potentially
        • Ex: Apple email from “Best of 2019” that he posted a video recording
      • Social media as this generation’s fast food – probably worse for us than we believe
        • Maybe his will be 50 million people and not multiple billion
    • Who does he need to pay to not get targeted by ads? – Hopes for a better decade ahead
    • Find Venn diagram of what you’re capable of doing – if anything lingering in your head, have to start it
      • No limit to resources online – how to eat an elephant “one bite at a time” 2 years after he did the first TED talk
      • “Divide divide divide” – he grew up ashamed he couldn’t ride a bike because he was embarrassed
        • Ate at him all the time and jealous of bikers in NY – how does he start?
        • Needed a bike – (got a foldable one), could do a straight line, then went to just do that and brakes in bike lane
        • Would make a turn, another turn and within a year – he was that prick going between cars, as fast, thru red

Failures as Public (Notes from December 30, 2019 to Jan 5, 2020) June 9, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Data Science, Digital, education, experience, finance, global, marketing, medicine, questions, RPA, Strategy, Time, training, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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In the book “The Rise and Fall of Nations”, Ruchir Sharma goes through the emerging and developing countries that have shown patterns in growth or stagnation. How do we see that they failed? How did they succeed? Was it spending as a percentage of GDP? Is it the change in political party? Infrastructure? Social services? So many factors are at play for a nation. And any that have risen have also seen falls. It’s the natural business cycle that we see happen in macro all the way to micro. Why do I bring this up?

Because it happens to the smallest business units like startups, as well as individuals. We can’t help it. Some of us hide the falls, others wear it on our sleeves, open. I think there’s a combination of good for both. I will say that more reviews such as Top 10 Startup Failures of 2019 can be interesting case studies.

Maybe it’s not the companies themselves doing the reflection, but instead outsiders. This is a review exercise that can be useful for any individual to provide thoughtful reasoning. Granted, there were likely other, unseen circumstances that created a downfall but the exercise still works to recognize a large event like that. If more people see that through a lens, we would expect some growth overall. That content creation drives more people to start their own things. And that can only be good.

On to the notes!

  • Seth Juarez (@sethjuarez), Microsoft cloud advocate (Data Skeptic 12/15/19)
    microsoft_empower_business_web4

    • ML: don’t want to write an algorithm because it’s too messy but use data to extract knowledge, use ML
    • “I don’t know how to do ML, so call an API” vs “I know how to do TF, PyTorch, Deep Learning-custom stuff”
      • Build in control things
    • Unstructured data into folder, word doc, picture, extract knowledge into an intelligent way (any set of files)
      • Making more intelligent Indexing with Skills
      • When a doc is indexed, an Indexer cracks open doc (text, images, metadata)
        • Skillset aggregates series of skills in step order to go through them (ex: sentiment of text, added to tree)
      • Very similar to an ETL but customized
    • Predictions inside PowerBI, for instance – ML on rows of data to show this
      • Azure ML ModelInsights – vary features and see how it affects the predictions
      • Hoping bad ML models don’t affect or bias other models
    • Video Indexer – upload video, take text out, show when different people start talking (pictures in a row, for instance)
      • Sequence of audio and pictures – can get sentiment with text
      • When you create an indexer, you marry it together with data storage (where files are) and the SkillSet
    • Skill-builders as Excel-jockeys – his interview with a Rotterdam woman Faelina and getting innovation there
    • His question: Ethics in AI – models building and make sure there is fairness in their generation
    • Azure Cognitive Search links
  • Greg Zuckerman (@gzuckerman), WSJ writer, author of The Man Who Solved the Market (Resolve’s Gestalt University 12/23/19)
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    • How asset management has changed after Renaissance book, how relationships have evolved since releasing
    • Was fascinated by buy-side investors, bewildered by trade ideas but over time, become cynical
      • 2 and 20 aren’t providing unique, much value
    • When you don’t have outside LP’s, you can do other things that you can’t otherwise
    • Trend following in clusters of stocks, not necessarily a single stock – baskets against each other
      • Unique methodology into one equities model
    • When you talk to Simons and others in the firm early, you’d think they’d be quants but not the case
      • Still human – family office still will look at the office anyhow
    • 30 pages of NDA, had issues when he was starting the book
    • Everything they have is pattern investing and trading, so this is a problem eventually changing
      • Sophisticated or others that have money in market, but happening gradually
  • Dr. Rhonda Patrick (@foundmyfitness), scientist (Kevin Rose Show, 1/1/20)
    fmf-og-image

    • Discussing Omega3, metformin, sulforaphane research
    • Published paper on phospholipid form of omega3 supplementation, DHA – found in marine sources
      • Interest in getting it to the brain – DHA that is bound to albumane
        • DHA-free fatty acid transported blood-brain by passive transfusion
        • Blood-brain barrier erodes as you age
    • Brain glucose levels as important for Alzheimer’s disease
    • Fish contain 1 – 1.5% of DHA in phospholipid form, whereas fish roe contain 70-75% (including flying fish)
    • More from a gram of fish oil (she takes 3g) and eating fish/salmon roe – Nordic Pure3 for Rhonda Patrick
      • High dose EPA can have issues with blood thin
    • Epithelia cancers vs blood cancers (in mice)
      • Much of metformin studies are based on Type 2 diabetics – lived longer after metformin with age controls
      • Physical exercise and metformin were not synergistic
    • Activation of pulsing metformin – half-life
      • Exercise activates and lasts 48 hours, metformin does 36 hours after last dose
    • During fasting, NAD levels increase
    • 36 hour monk fast
  • Roy Bahat (@roybahat), Head of Bloomberg Beta (20min VC 10/18/19)
    7efb1b0061d0a6d64bc0710262fa52b0

      • NYC / Valley with portfolio companies in Kobalt, Textio, Rigetti Computing, Flexport
      • Former co-founder at Ouya, new kind of games console raising over $33mn
    • “Messy career” where he ran a nonprofit in government in nyc, fortune 500 media company, started the company and now investor

    • This day – October 18 – started a third fund, same build as the prior 2 – $75mn, same thing and sticking to strategy
      • Fund size is fund strategy
        • In terms of valuations – company valuation as marker of VCs rating company, but that’s a mistake
        • Want to own as much of the few winners
        • Competitive lanes issue – every time you write a check, you lose out on other companies in the space in a category
    • Egg toss of trust – model to be careful, customer calls at the end
      • VCs that ask to talk to customers immediately – slow them down, could be out of order
      • When he met Ryan Peterson at Flexport, he was still a board member at his hardware company and could try it out
        • Flexport reached out easily and offered to help him with his freight of hardware and team member made connection to CEO
    • As companies become successful and grow quickly, expectations keep raising
    • Fear from 6 years ago was if the VC was founder-friendly – not going to screw you
      • Greylock led a Series A for a friend’s company because Reid Hoffman had said Greylock wouldn’t screw you
      • Most people now are behaving to nudge the company’s upward – at Bloomberg Beta, company is the customer
    • Investment decision making – speed of investment decision
      • They try to avoid asking about other VC’s in the process (but want to know if there are timing issues)
      • Their offers are encouraged to be shopped – lots of funds moving down to write checks
      • Concerned about Seqoia, NEA, other funds? Frustrated because they’ve lost a few but have won a few.
        • Had a founder called them after 2 years prior – shouldn’t have taken that money to convince you – nothing
        • Founder mentioned he could do the raise and turn to others and they’d know who it was
    • Dependent variable – valuation (not the independent variable as most think)
      • Fund has strategy, do you want to invest? Check size – determined by fund size.
      • Strategy is to know the ownership target. 10-25% (Valuation as a function of fund size and check sizes with the ownership target)
    • Ownership to build over time – bigger check – they own what they want to own the day they invest
      • He wants to be on the team the day they want to be on the team
      • Generally, if new investors are there, pro rata and investment is hot
      • First check – anyone can say yes – good accountability, avoid groupthink
      • Following checks – unanimous to follow on
    • Greater fool dynamic – if actions reveal that you prey on greater fools at later times
      • Viable strategy in the current market, but maybe not going forward
    • Boards at the earliest stages – pretty useless but has sit in Series B’s
    • Favorite book: Waters Shut Down, Darwin’s Dangerous Idea by Daniel Dennit, Ain’t No Making It – how to develop empathy
    • Founder secondaries – fan of this, most personal and important underdiscussed aspects of a company
      • Will drive the decisions of a company because the founder is distracted – many valuable reasons
    • Thinks the heroes that are set up in the technology industry now have too much power – mainly as a result of money success
    • Mistakenly believed that starting a company and investing in a company are similar
      • Completely different roles – wanted to focus on one of these
    • Scout programs – Bloomberg Beta has Open Angels – giving money to individual investors is awesome
      • Angels, dollar for dollar, are more valuable in the ecosystem – issues can be lack of transparency (money comes from X)
    • Most recent investment – founder named Max Sinkhov – business help close businesses on home purchases
      • Title insurance States Title – validation that the owner in fact owns the home – super big before a website
  • Arvid Kahl (@arvidkahl), founders of Feedback Panda (The Indie Hackers Podcast, #140 12/16/19)
    announcementpanda-400x400-1

    • Him and girlfriend are founders of Feedback Panda, 2 years to $55k MRR and sold it
    • Commuted from Hamburg and Berlin 3 times a week – 2.5 hours each way, 15+ a week
      • Connection was poor so he read and listened to podcasts – automating and taking yourself out of the business
      • Built to Sell book and podcasts – SaaS as online teacher feedback
    • An agency keeps you as a freelancer, essentially – so try to make it so that it doesn’t have to be you
    • All advice being anecdotal – truth can be applicable to every business, just a matter of you selecting it
    • Started with the docparser and mailparser founder podcast with Indie Hackers (sold to Fortress Capital, also)
      • Found it interesting that there would be people to acquire the type of company
      • Received an email from them
    • Documentation of prcoesses, business processes and building – make it easy to transition into them
      • Connection from beginning and met Kevin recently
    • He started a blog after vacation, thebootstrappedfounder.com
      • Started out Feedback Panda – he was a software developer part-time, she was an opera singer & teaching English to Chinese
        • Feedback writing process took forever – 20 students ~5 min for next lesson and what was taught
        • Built her own system and templates to reduce the extra 2+ hours automatically
      • Knew what the market was because it was her exact same issue. If they could fix the problem, it’d be all over.
    • $10/mo would save hours and made one Facebook post as advertising, then word-of-mouth
      • Allowed them to communicate and have discussions – teaching online blog posts
      • VIPanda – interesting person from user base and interview them
      • Engaging enough, relatable content for their strategy – she’d already been in her groups before she got to the part
    • Teachers as very underpaid and overworked – good spot for business opportunity but not great for employment
    • How to run – he said he probably should have hired for customer service – always did it from the beginning
      • Live chat and messages, would build up an article if others saw the issue again
      • Time when volume happens will be interrupting because there’s new stuff going on while features were coding
      • Forced him to do as much automation as he could build from the software stack
        • Deployment, failure errors, alerting and restarting system
        • Elixir Phoenix, Docker containers and on Kubernetes with ViewJS and other API / browser extension
      • If something broke, it’d come back up – errors automatically reported, etc
    • He didn’t know how to hire, so he didn’t do it
      • Did an 11 hour video series for his next developer so he could send the link and felt great for it
    • Adding a yearly plan near the start was productive – $110 where people would commit to something for a year
      • After a year, noticed they added a lot of features – had a cloud template sharing system
      • Machine learning for pronoun translation, snippets with text extender and manipulation
      • Product was much better – charge more – grandfathered all existing customers to $10 before $15/mo
    • Hooked by Nir Eyal – instrumental – trigger, action, reward, investment – putting own template to share
  • Keith Devlin (@profkeithdevlin), “Math Guy” at NPR Weekend Edition, Stanford Mathematician (School’s In on Wharton XM, 9/1/18)
    • Math throughout the week and your life day-to-day
    • Using Tupperware dish – missing the size repeatedly, for instance
    • In Alaska, teaching algebra to students – remembers having to teach the quadratic equation repeatedly and lengthily
      • Math as a discipline, potentially
    • Math Guy license plate – content of math has changed throughout history, but not necessarily how we’ve done it
      • Save for 2 exceptions that are the printing press and then computing
      • Changes throughout history as connection with ancient Greeks, geometry, and in response to how society grows
        • 18-19th century – chemistry and physics drives, 20th and 21st century – biology and math through commerce, society
    • Cell phones as answering 95% of undergraduate exam questions in fractions of a second, execution of procedure that can be coded
      • Faster, better, quicker for as many variables as you want, just from your phone
      • Shouldn’t test these things anymore but how to do them and when to use them
    • People should have a general sense of numbers sense – different people have levels of it
      • Tips, for instance – example of doubling tax and then taxi cabs or restaurants starting at 20/25/30% since min ppl will enter own
      • Don’t need to learn to execute – won’t get the right degree of understanding without doing it
        • Teach not for execution, but for understanding now – bunch of high school students reverse engineering UPS/FedEx algorithms
        • Had to understand little things to figure out what would go on – Nueva school
    • If you start with technology to interest them, they’re already engaged – good teacher can ask interesting questions given the motivation
      • We shouldn’t have to ask Why’s and How’s and What’s
    • Research in 1990s watching adults after buying things and seeing things
      • If they have to do it mathematically, can get to near 98% quickly
        • if you take it out of the context but the same types of problems, it goes to 37%
        • Children doing licorice (to count 10s) won’t work once you remove it from the context
      • Embodiment of math in video games (Kevin’s been working on it) – reward in it to achieve the reward which pulls away from content
        • Small number that do it right – find a way to represent it that’s natural (in process, for instance – thinking process is math)
        • Slides he shows audiences with the same problem and same situation – one side is math symbols, other is game designed
    • He got a grant for games where the problem adjusts for the game and shows the manipulation of the symbolic representations
      • Intuitive quantitative symbols – working on online course for teachers/parents
      • Introduce problems (from movies, for instance) where you have to begin with writing a paper

Prioritizing Personal Projects (Notes from December 23 – 29, 2019) June 1, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Digital, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Leadership, marketing, social, sports, storytelling, Strategy, Time, TV, Uncategorized.
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We overestimate what we can do in a short time but underestimate what we can do in a longer period. This has been reiterated by Jamie Siminoff, Bill Gates, many others. It’s telling but a great mantra if you can zoom out and high level back off. Scheduling makes this so much better.

I have wanted for the longest time to get Spotify or another podcast to listen to me in the car and allow me to say something basic like “Make a note 30 seconds ago” and let me review the notes later. This could work for audiobooks or podcasts. Even allowing ebooks and articles to bookmark this type of stuff for where the page is would be useful. But maybe that’s through an API in the podcast or Kindle? I’ll have to see and report back.

In light of planning further career-wise, I have taken it upon myself to take on projects that I plan on making public for analysis sake. As an external consultant, much of my work has been NDA / kept private in general for good reasons (VC firms and start-ups are likely some of the more controlled privacy-wise). Some aren’t, and those are typically the ones that I’ve noticed have a much better, transparent brand or have less questions around their business models. A few things have stood out to me about predictions/forecasting, especially in annual or quarterly time frames that publications will release. I have focused on ML/Fintech/Edtech/Data companies over the last 5 years more heavily, so looking through the Fintech 50, Next Billion Dollar (Unicorn) Startups and Hottest 50 LA Startups. Outside the bay area / silicon valley, scanning through the different ecosystems can be an interesting landscape for focused, scaling and growing startups. LA because it’s still in California, somewhat close proximity but ultimately an alternative driving force than typical elsewhere (namely the bay).

So, I’ll have a chance to update my preliminary thoughts on the year-to-year changes – how many startups dropped off, which proceeded to move up the list, any funding raises, product progress or expansion. Hope you enjoy the notes!

  • Decade in Tech (Wharton XM)
    • 4G entering 2011 compared to 5G now
    • iPad introduction – better than netbook
      • Tablet rampup – Microsoft following with the Slate
    • Social media launching
      • Instagram launch in September 2010 – 2 guys at Stanford
      • Taking photo class from a plastic camera that a professor had given him – best, soft focus and filtered photography
      • Offering to buy Instagram in April 2012 for $1bn
    • Tesla as “gift of light” Model S – first time supercharging across the country
      • Musk took CEO role in 2008 (Model S 2012)
    • WeWork – likeminded individuals wanting to work with others outside of making money
      • Sharing space to be something bigger
      • $16bn in 2016 to pulling IPO in 2019
      • Strength as marketing capability, not necessarily management
    • Controversial events
      • Kendall Jenner at BLM Pepsi commercial
      • United – offering money for ‘volunteers’ until 4 people get off flight
        • $400 voucher and up to $800 – escalation, dragging the Chicago doctor kicking and screaming
        • Many other airlines improving overbookings
    • Ice bucket challenge for ALS – 70k tweets per day at peak
    • A/R rise as it started with Pokemon Go
    • Cutting the chord – rise of unbundling
  • Brant Pinvidic, author of 3-Minute Rule: Say Less to Get More (Wharton XM, Career Talk)
    414bsihattl._sy346_

    • Mostly reminding people of what they’re doing badly / guilty – awareness but wanted to change it to make it productive
    • Help you get as much info in 3 minutes as possible since “elevator pitch” doesn’t really work anymore
      • Meaningful engagement or not now
    • Small ideas not actually small ideas – respect the knowledge of your audience
      • Your excitement is a long history of building information – feed them piece by piece
        • Ex – AirBnb for horses: people that travel with horses need to stick them where they’re going
      • Clarity as super compelling – complications are messed up
    • Don’t open with the hook – audience needs to build into the potential
      • Katy Perry example: more Guinness book of World Record accomplishments, for instance
    • Selling a show in 12 minutes in Hollywood as junior producer between Simon Cowell and Mark Burnett – had gotten down on himself
    • People looking for hook – less dynamic personalities (biotech, oil & gas) that pulls the nervous energy out for why it will be great
    • Bringing an idea to life on post-it with just a few words – see the value come together
      • 25 bullet points to pitch his show as well as he did (core piece of information)
    • Halfway to understanding what the hook is when you can place the hook
  • Jonathan Lai (@tocelot), cnsmr team; Joel De La Garza, CIO at Box (16min on  News #17, 12/20/19)
    16minutes-featureimage

    • Star Wars trailer premier in Fortnite – JJ Abrams coming out of Millennium Falcon and asked to choose which trailer
      • Interactive and persistent collaboration with Avengers and now Star Wars (lightsaber)
      • 12 million people showed up for Marshmello’s in-game concert (of 250 million users)
    • Scarcity in a world of abundance – getting people there
    • Brand advertisers have a limited set of options to reach Gen Z – no display ads, billboards, maybe Snapchat or TikTok
      • Hundred hours of watching YouTube or Twitch or in-game events that eventually go out after to share
    • Fortnite’s Chapter 2 server downtime of 3 days as “Black Hole” that went viral and video
    • Security and backdoor encryption – creating escrow keys to get backdoors
      • Can’t create backdoors undermines the trust in general, even if good guys
    • Any discussion around weakening crypto doesn’t make sense
      • Conflation between a few things: we have systems that are built and they should provide backdoors/access to law enforcement
        • Backdoor to phones, for instance
      • Phone uses strong cryptography and backdoor there – focus on cryptography
      • Phone and put in safe – nobody talks about the steel of the safe – access
    • End-to-end encryption vs getting phone stolen, for instance
      • Roger Stone investigation: WhatsApp and Signal to communicate but iCloud turned on which saved all messages anyhow unencrypted
      • Metadata and other encryption can tell you far more than even the messages themselves
    • If you build devices, how much gov access do you want to provide?
      • Joel (grad student, involved in CDN – bad actors, like pedos, would use and work with Interpol to find them)
  • What to Know about CFIUS (a16z 12/23/19)
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    • Committee on Foreign Investment in US on Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2018, updated in September ’19
    • Katie Haun interviewing Michael Leiter (law firm Skadden Arps) about function to review any foreign investment in US business with natsec concerns
      • 13 agencies ran by Dept of Treasury split between 2 camps: want foreign investment and concerned about security (intelligence, NSA, FBI)
      • Semiconductor moving from US to Japan, for instance, that would limit Japanese investments
    • CFIUS limiting in 2006 for Saudi Arabia and Emirates and now is Chinese investment in the US
      • Changes in technology, expansion of data and things that weren’t present even 10 years ago
      • Tech, data touch, real estate, work with US gov or anything else (dog food sold to SEALs)
    • Everyone working in fintech, credit reports, broad financial data will have more than a 16-digit credit card number and will be subject
      • 1 million people for arbitrary amount of data
    • Prior to CFIUS reform, if Alibaba acquired someone, it was up to both parties to submit to CFIUS – vast txns were never seen, no req
      • Both parties come together, transaction description, foreign acquirer, motivation, business reason
        • Good, very bad (president can veto using Article 2), can impose mitigation for sec risk (board of US citizens, data controls, etc)
      • Pieces of reform that are not voluntary – fines and compliance possible
      • Mandatory if company operates in sensitive sector listed, or produce/design export control tech
        • Includes encryption, investment over some size – mandatory filing
        • High-end types of LIDAR – controlled vs standard for automobile, not controlled
      • Could range from (ER99 not, or export-controlled) – computing power, battery storage, sensors
      • Software tends not to fall under CFIUS unless encryption
    • WSJ civil military cooperation – some stuff is mandatory and more stuff will be
    • US business – interstate commerce, could be French office with US office in US – CFIUS gets to look at US element of transaction if French company is picked
      • Green-field investments – foreign investments can be made and won’t be looked at, really
      • Ultimate parent and ultimate ownership of acquirer or investment (private equity, capital)
    • More than 9.9% equity or some other controlling interest – board seat, for instance
  • Josh Sapan, CEO AMC Network (Wharton XM)
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    • Challenging to get through people’s gateways to get to audiences
    • Base incumbent business for United States – affiliates, selling ads and that represents their financial fundamental part of company
      • Video prices coming down in different options
      • Spending less money on AMC Networks in the skinny bundles
    • Toughest marketplace for Netflix to deal with – Indonesia, as CEO said
      • Vertical scaling vs horizontal
  • Adam D’Augelli (@adaugelli), Partner at True Ventures (20min VC 12/16/19)
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    • Investments in Fitbit, Peloton, Hashicorp, Splice, Ring, Automattic, Tray.io
    • Instructor at Uflorida in Business Finance, founder of Perfect Wave Records (donations)
    • Full-time in June 2010, 10 people total about to invest in second fund
      • Met them through vstocksolutions portfolio company (had worked there internship)
      • Reached out potentially – didn’t know where to start at intersection business/finance/tech – UF not as well-known
      • Phil had offered a role – we like you but haven’t hired someone as junior so come and we’ll see
    • Joining as a young one – new firm where you have a ton to do and roles not really defined, structured
    • Thinking about portfolio construction and business models (under-represented in vc discussions)
      • Fund-level returns for partners – funds at True are around $300mln with specific institutional capital at pre-seed, seed
      • Investments $500k-$3.5mln targeting 20-25% ownership, $2mln for 22.5%
      • Self-selection bias for why they have a better way for them
    • They back founders early, invest $1-3mln and try to own 20-25% where the downside is 1% and it will be a maximize risk for timing
    • 28 people twice, 8 people three times for the founders they’re backing now
    • Amy Errett – starting Madison Reed, wanted $2mln to get off ground for equity
    • In ’06, convincing founders to try not to raise as much
    • Lead investment amount – meaningful bias for single lead with deep pockets
      • New group of firms that will work with emerging founders where they can bring others in, potentially
    • Ring or Splice are interesting businesses now, but in earliest stages, True able to support them through risks at start
    • In each fund, make 45-50 initial investments and reserve heavily
      • 1 or 2 founders, investment in company, will generate the whole fund and 6-8 will be fund-level return (25%+)
      • Inputs to each investment: founder taking tons of product, market size market-risk at their price and raising their type of money
    • Culture at True: decisions done by protagonist with support of 1 or 2 others in nonconsensus way
      • Support for whole team and company – investment loss as part of process for repeatable out-performance
      • 1 of 10 says the company fits the model, bring on team and then get excited
    • Investing at seed stage – 65% near or at company inception, 1 to 3 founders super early
      • Board is access to True, investment team and founder network – monthly call for an hour or so, call me when you learn
      • Board coffees – 15min conversations on this – enable for speed
      • Take board seat at series A – 90 minutes every 8 weeks, roughly, when they have multiple investors, etc…
    • Select funds – pitch to founders: be here day 1, continue to invest as you go further, what’s best for company
      • He was on board at Ring during acquisition – partner John still on at Peloton
    • Learned a ton from Jamie Siminoff – how fast you can grow is much faster than you think
      • Taking asymmetric risk early on within business is valuable – ex. DoorBot – Jamie rebranded
        • Ring.com domain found, was going to raise $3.5 mln – ultimate cost was $1mln ($200k on that day)
    • Favorite book: Doing Capitalism in Innovation Economy by Bill Janeway and Carlota Perez Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
    • Biggest challenge in role: Doing more doesn’t correlate with improved performance – Mitchell and Hashicorp had left a portco and later invested in him
      • Steve and Splice – met in Bogota at a conference and happened to meet him in NYC for breakfast after
      • Don’t know which activities are the right ones
    • Knowing more about a market – false sense of security to catch up with knowledge
      • Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable – academic paper – markets in many unknowns where knowing more leads to worse decisions
    • David Scott at Matrix – software metrics and repeatable business growth
    • Randy Glide at DFJ Growth – embraces risk and has a human approach
    • Andy Wiseman at USV – small significant syndicate being a great co-investor
    • Pat at Sequoia – depth of knowledge on being a great board member and partner to CEOs
    • Recent investment: MemBio – mission-driven bio and positive impact creating red blood cells outside the body

Listening and Encouraging (Notes from December 16 to Dec 22, 2019) May 21, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Blockchain, Data Science, DFS, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, Gaming, global, Hiring, Leadership, NFL, NLP, RPA, social, sports, Strategy, Uncategorized.
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Sometimes it doesn’t work. Asking the right questions to people in conversations to get a sense of what they’re truly passionate about gives me hope for those that may eventually try something different, new. However, unless I followed up repeatedly, most people let their passion slowly pass, or just remain in thought.

This is a big part of how I learn, engage and stay passionate for the things I’m curious about. Other than being scared of stagnation, hearing people come up with ideas, test them, build and hopefully succeed repeatedly gives me an energy to try to convince others to do the same. I understand the difference between being told of something that has been mulling around in someone’s head or even light discussion among friends compared to prototyping or validating with potential customers or asking people in the field if something’s viable.

A few examples of ideas people have told me they wanted to start and hadn’t (yet some that I believe have done well, just have room in the market) include an HR in Tech stories podcast, traveling medicine / tourism aggregator, and a d2c ecommerce diamond shop (which I’ll go into more detail), more social podcast sharing among friends, and still a market-taking happy hour app (yes, I had to insert my own – I’m leaning toward Glide.app through Google Sheets).

For diamond shop – this was by someone who graduated with entrepreneurship degree, had a validation for the idea and then was told by others it wasn’t worth doing because it’d be high cost. Granted, that was a few years ago, but it would’ve been hackable then. It’s certainly easier now with ecommerce shops via Facebook/Etsy/Shopify and other support, not to mention the audience you’d be in front of. The premise is that a diamond historically took the role of what a pearl represented because of the hardness – you could pass this on as an heirloom to further generations, and you know it won’t be breaking. It’s yours. There’s a legitimate attachment there that defines a core part of the worth/value. For the idea – it’s increasingly cheaper to 3D print a model you can build/customize on CAD (or related tools). This would be printed in plastic that can be melted to be replaced by silver – these rings would be sent to customers that are ordering (possibly with a small down payment / shipping covered, ie $5-20). It’s a model of what the ring would look like, just without the diamond part – but as far as sizing/size/bulk and the other key parts of the ring, customers can try them on and feel it. There’s an emotional attachment here that should occur. If they’re loving it, or have requests for changes, they can do that. Possibly a back and forth could take place, but once it’s settled, the wax/plastic mold can be printed as they would normally do a custom ring and use the materials that have been requested. We’ve removed the in-shop aspect and made it personal, simply by removing much of the fixed costs and labor costs that would go in to this. She was an expert in jewelry and had years of experience. Someone just told her no. 3D printing is now a hobby and can be done there. Many jewelers have other shops do the molding. I’ve been thinking of helping her start by just simply creating a mockup of the site. Can certainly figure out the rest.

Anyhow, let’s see the notes.

Week of December 16, 2019

  • Tyler Willis (@tylerwillis), angel investor (20min VC 2/16/16)
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    • Raised with seed companies at Index Ventures, Founders Fund, Khosla Ventures
    • Port co’s include Lyft, Patreon, Change.org
    • First co that he was on founding team on was acquired by Oracle, then had a friend raising a seed round for concept in CV
      • Preproduct, premarket where he did a small investment (decided it was bad to keep all eggs in one basket)
      • Decided to invest in Patreon, Loungebuddy (Airport lounges) and ShopApp inside of Shopify
    • Rocketship – valuation doesn’t play a role but ID opps for big (10x path, seed > 10k)
    • Customer acq and growth as a lightweight process to get a core part of the company
      • Optimizing for experiments – 1 week to test compared to 8 week deployment
    • Founder type – uniquely insightful to the place they’re in
      • Bias for people when he can sit down and get a high-octane thinking / smarts – hard to hang out to the rocketship
      • False dichotomy of domain expertise – could have learned wrong lessons or may not know anything in enterprise, for instance
    • East of Eden, Innovator’s Dilemma as great books
    • Favorite investors – Naval, Sam Altman, Gus Tai at Trinity Ventures
    • Favorite app – Omni (stuff storage), Delectable (learning about wine)
  • Ash Fontana (@ashfontana)- GP Zetta, Leo Pelovets – GP Susa Ventures (Venture Stories 12/17/19)
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    • Getting pricing power – need to find balance between incentivizing founders and price, but not a big deal
      • If they get 80% of company, 20% for founders – may not keep them looking ahead
    • Company and VC differences – companies have different roles but VC has very similar, solitary roles
    • On non-investing side, COO or Head of Ops to run operations but not particularly CEO or investing side needed
    • Working with best founders, LPs aren’t as important (but they are the primary VC customers)
      • None matters unless you have results for LPs and providing value – founders need the platform or help
    • If you were an LP, what would you want to be in: YC, First Round or Benchmark?
      • YC for Ash – lots of opportunity for capital deployment at many different levels
      • Benchmark for Leo – very large differentiated returns, ~30x according to Leo (YC may be 5x-7x possibly)
        • More variance because of smaller portfolios in Benchmark
      • YC may be beatable but it would be in losing their way as a general accelerator
        • Ash brought up operational risk for LPs – more points of failure because of all the touchpoints
    • AngelList as trading to be profitable and dynamic system for new things
    • LinkedIn as insurmountable lead in enterprise/business space of social network (as opposed to consumers)
      • Hard to disrupt with multiple verticals
    • Requests for startups: data generation/building data (synthetically) – ex w/ params
      • 10k examples of chairs that are brown that have 4 legs, in low light, at this angle
      • Weather climate, also
      • AutoML – making it easy for non-specialist engineers to experiment with ML
    • Leo Requests: ISA with bundling with coaching, training, VISAs – realigning incentives
  • Ben Tossell, founder Makerpad, Sahil Lavingia (@shl), founder GumRoad (Indie Hackers 11/11/19)
    5db04ceea0aa2b500db953c9_makerpad-sharing-image

    • No-code vs code – building a solution to a problem without being technical
    • First web-sites like Dreamweaver and tables for no-code – like WYSIWYG
      • Halfway things like WordPress where you can customize or use framework
      • Building a newsletter, can use Substack, for instance – Marc Andreesen
    • Sahil’s opinion that we’re unlikely to see a billion dollar start-up without a code base
      • But likely to see many creatives build on their own, have the options
    • Choice of no-code compared to code – using Circle as their integration testing methods
    • Nontechnical founders that had cofounders for developers or finding for cheap
    • Ben as bringing up Lambda School (Airtable, Slack, Zoom, Notion) and Makerpad member who was just starting to say it’s breaking
      • $150mn in Series A to get to worry about things breaking first
      • “What’s my Airbnb version look like?” but should focus on the first $10, 100 before there
      • gumroad-logo-retina
    • GumRoad as being built in a weekend – not competent enough for him to do no-code
      • Ben argued it was easy to do in no-code but they’re each discussing the same thing from different experiences
    • Queries on data for code – tools like Clay/Retool where you can work together – can run queries easily
      • No-coder does query and can recognize it to manipulate
    • Powerful for on-code is git and version controls – clear log of security, feedback, quality of code
      • Apply it to other things – pull requests/merge (conflicts)/conflicts in document setting on Notion, for instance
      • 100+ tutorials in MakerPad now – what’s interesting or grab attention
    • No-code as Patreon/Cameo/Airbnb/Uber where the overhead for coding sucks so much value from (Patreon at $30-40mln burn)
      • Creator would be interesting with price-motivating factors because you could have a more affordable option
      • “What’s the point of trying if I can’t even get to the ceiling?”
      • Meetup clone – need the “this is how you build it” – go look at the tutorials
    • Not enough answers for “Where can it go?” because they haven’t seen enough
  • Niccolo De Masi (@niccolodemasi), CEO and Chairman at Glu Mobile (20min VC 2/18/16)
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    • Kendall and Kylie game (#1 at app store at time), Kim K game, Deer Hunter and others
    • Was CEO at Hands on Mobile as well as CEO at Monstermob Group Plc
    • No money to be made in games in 2003 because they were for feature films, polyphonic, true tracks and he ran a public co before selling in 2007
      • Raised money to get bid for Glu from Hands on Mobile but got a call from Egahn Zander to transition to paid from f2p as CEO
      • Original IP value with games specifically for mobile on hardware
    • How will you make money in late-stage startup for future? Next year or two vs past.
      • Forward looking and professional managers – no founders anymore. Built from 350-850 people.
    • Moore’s Law as quite predictable but believes there are different models, utilities, and price models
      • Last gen console power in pockets now
    • Barometer of quarterly calls driving placements and interim 6 week calls for how they’re doing
      • If transparent in bad times, you may have quick punishment vs window-dressing
      • Rewarded more quickly in the upside, as well – private markets vs public markets
    • New startups as worth more than incumbents – bay as more regular here
      • Well ahead in private markets compared to public markets (his counter – at least they have earnings)
    • No BD or CorpDev – scour market and wait for inbounds of compellingly priced assets (often distressed), significant private markets
      • When Glu is $6-7, they can pick up companies easily but not so much at $2-4
      • Savings to be had for core customers when they have scale within Glu (mentioned PlayFirst)
      • “retirement community for young people” – startups subsidized, food, clothing and sharing app
    • By 2020 – more discipline in different sectors potentially – overvalued will have to come in line
      • King that was acquired by Activision Blizzard – consolidation forced by VC funding and people flow
    • Better to be #1 in smaller market than #10 in a larger one – be great w/ you’re good at
  • Tim Draper (@timdraper), founding partner at Draper Associates and DFJ (20min VC 2/22/16)
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    • Original suggestion for viral marketing in web-based email to geometrically spread an Internet product to its market
      • Standard marketing technique now
    • EE at Stanford before going to Apollo Computer as assistant to President before HBS
      • Came out and wanted to be a VC (grandpa/father both were VCs and didn’t want to do it) – wanted to be a consultant / cheerleader
      • Helped him having an entrepreneurial base but some can certainly do it if it’s your goal
    • Borrowed money from gov to get started – knocked on doors with software on them
      • Most VCs needed others to help fund a company so they worked together – moreso now for angels, but not necessarily VC because of money
      • VC has gone global and has enjoyed that expansion – affecting the whole industry
    • His son’s accelerator, Boost, focusing so they can accelerate any business – he enjoys investing in 2-3 people with a good mission
      • Get people set up in the right way – medical, eshares, network accounting, and other operational methods
    • Favorite pitch – Nicholas Zenstrom at Skyper – most smooth, effective way and he’d agreed before calling and changing business model
      • Enthusiastic, quiet confidence for the enormous successes – Robin Lee (Baidu), Hotmail’s founder, Martin Everhart (Tesla)
    • Draper Uni of Heroes (entrepreneurs/founders) creating school during crash for better people
      • Give these people the confidence + tools while ridding them of shielding
      • DraperUniversity and StartupU – great marketing for school
    • Bitcoin interesting for a year ahead of the time, and then post-Mt Gox hack it went down only 20% so he jumped in
      • Micropayments, fees in journalism and podcasting as well as ending credits and cross-country
    • Enjoys hearing Andreesen, Moritz, McClure at 500 Startups, Plug-n-Play as first incubator, Ron Conway
    • Reflects on The Startup Game (his father’s) and Rothschild’s Bionomics and concept of evolution of econ and bio
    • Recent investment Laurel & Wolfe (interior decorating as best furniture for crowdsourcing) – closed update Dec ’19
    • Also invested in Favor, marketplace food delivery – acquired by HE Butt Grocery
  • Brandon Deer (@bdeer26), VP of Ops & Strategy at UIPath (20min VC 12/20/19)
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    • Using RPA combined with business processes for automation
    • Using Gary Kasparov’s loss to IBM in chess before saying it’s no longer a chess or human – combination where average + average is optimum
    • Having growth and breaking things
  • Wharton Moneyball, Ken Pomeroy and Brian Burke (@bburkeespn) (Wharton XM)
    • Discussing the biggest predictors, NCAA basketball or in football
    • Pomeroy and how he’s adjusted his football predictions

Organizing the Mind, Studying (Notes from Dec 9 to Dec 15, 2019) May 6, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Data Science, Digital, education, experience, finance, Founders, global, Hiring, Leadership, medicine, questions, social, Strategy, Uncategorized, WomenInWork.
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As I try to stay organized overall, and especially in our current environment, it does seem that I have hit a snag in where/how to curate all information. I’ve attempted to settle on Roam to do notes since it keeps bi-directional links and essentially enables a personal wiki. However, this is awesome once we get to enough notes/details/lists. It’s a pain in the ass until then because it’s just not set up.

Until I get to the point where I can export all of what I want and stylistically group it, it will be a very large work-in-progress. Why? Well, I started to list a few things of what I like to keep track of. Here’s a few off the top of my head:

  • Notes from Podcasts/Webinars that I usually keep in OneNote (top include 20min VC, FinTech Insider, a16z, Wharton Moneyball, The Indie Hackers podcast, among others)
  • Book notes that are either in OneNote if they’re older or, if in my Kindle, potentially on Readwise/Overdrive
  • Daily/weekly updates including investment research via Crunchbase, lay of the land from a16z, Futurism interesting stories, StockTwits Daily Rip, Makerpad/Product Hunt updates, as well as Beta List products
  • Newsletters and Trends – Morgan’s Blogging, Nat Eliason’s Medley and other notes, Justin Gage’s Technicality, Trends report from The Hustle, Polina Marinova’s The Profile
  • Then there are the finance and investment articles that go to my RSS feed (OfDollarsandData, Ritholz, Datanami, Tomas Tungaz updates, plenty of others
  • Last but not least – bookmarked websites, Twitter likes/bookmarks that I just don’t get a chance to go back to, GitHub starred pages, anything shared in Slack or LinkedIn groups

How the hell do I organize all of that? Well, we’re trying and I’ll update you on where we land. All I know is that I should curate it down to my favorites or just try to learn less. Who wants to do that, though?

Week of December 9, 2019

  • Yaron Kniajer, Jared Kash, Cofounders of Sababa Ventures (Wharton XM)
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    • Discussing how safe and nice Tel-Aviv is
      • Rising of AI and tech in Israel ecosystem
    • Bridging the gap between entrepreneurs and investors
    • Talkspace – mental health app from Israeli creator
    • 18 million in revenue to New York, knowing the market and opening doors
    • Host, Randi, is a GP
  • David Sinclair (@davidasinclair), Prof in Genetics and Aging at HMS (Kevin Rose Show, 10/30/19)
    • Cofounder of 7 biotech co’s, co-editor of Aging journal, boardmember and 25+ patents
    • Book – Lifespan most recently Book link
    • Genes in yeast cells for aging while 29 entering Harvard finding red wine part
      • Media swinging from “wow we’ll live forever” to the opposite
      • Mice had a healthy longevity even if obese on wine part (caloric restriction without)
    • Sirtris Pharma – 2004 started and focusing on activators of Sirtuins – GSK purchased in 2008 for $720mln
      • 2010 people at Pfizer and Amgen published saying their research was wrong
      • 1 amino acid and 1 protein in living mouse as not living longer for resveratrol
      • Scientific debate limiting patients, potentially (needs to be taken with fat / drug-like molecules at GSK)
        • Patent life is 20 years and he doesn’t have the extra $20mln to get the clinical trials going again
    • For his book, we age similarly to yeast cells aging – loss of information (1 is genetic and other is, fragile, analog)
      • Backup copy of information for aging / cells came in 2018
    • Claude Shannon as one of his heroes – backup copy, need an observer and the rest of backup (when he did computer science/internet)
      • Remembering in 1999 that he woke up in middle of night to write out the theory of aging
      • Gene therapy doesn’t work in the eye – compared to a clock for memory of time, cog, removing hands or resetting
    • Nanoworld and subatomic in DNA – if secret is there, Methane compared to subatomic
    • Going as fast and safely to get it to humans – eye regeneration for a few cases
      • Nerve crush (spinal damage), glycoma in mice and restore vision, 1 year old blind mice with gene therapy can see
    • NAD and InsideTracker for genetic results and following the mixture / output
    • Nuances to how CGM and monitors react to individual foods (brown rice vs others, for instance)
    • NR, NMN and NAD checking for longevity and how to raise NAD
      • All cells need NAD to grow – if you put them up to levels of younger, you likely won’t cause cancer
      • Guesses for couple hundred thousand people on NMN supplements and nobody has died, to date
    • Pulsing and hormesis – what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger
      • Information on trees where older ones will send a notice to younger ones that a danger is coming
    • His father as 80 and healthiest in a while – post-stroke, heart attack and had heart disease
      • Taking metformin, NMN, resveratrol for a bit now
      • 500mg metformin with resveratrol and yogurt (stomach gets upset a bit) in morning – may have some in evening
      • 1g a day of resveratrol – 150mg typical (he mentioned knowing 14 years of research on animals, toxicity and human trials)
        • Min dose from animals at 250mg typically – liver enzymes are fine
  • Ryan Caldbeck (@ryan_caldbeck), founder & CEO of CircleUp (20min VC 2/11/16)
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    • Online investing platform that allows to invest in consumer companies
    • Previously, worked in consumer product and retail-focused p/e at TSG Consumer Partners and Encore Consumer Capital
      • Hundreds of investment firms that love consumer retail and its returns, love cash-flow characteristics, only after $10-15mln revenue
      • 3.5x average in ~4 years for younger companies – not enough money in that space
    • Crowdfunding as group of people coming together to fund something (debt, equity, product, donations)
      • Separate as an investing platform so the investors should thrive
    • Title 3 of JOBS Act – if company raises capital there from non-accredited investors, the hoops you have to go through aren’t worth it
      • Less cost to going with accredited investors without benefit – Title 3 will require the yearly book opening
        • Majority of companies don’t need the significant amount of users 100-200 to make a dent in what they’re looking for
      • Would have to prove to a company before taking on the cost – more likely that companies will fail at accredited investors and go to unaccredited
        • Maybe a tech raises up for the inefficiencies to solve this, but not so far
    • Lack of institutional capital in the sector of crowdfunding – for Ryan, explosion of institutional on the platform
      • Average in 2012 was $12k individual accredited to 2015 where the check was $100k into one deal and half is institutional
        • Similar to LendingClub growth as individuals to ind, then family offices, small funds and larger funds
    • Seed round was with Maveron and Clayton Christenson after ~60 some investors that passed (hard to get them excited)
      • Union Square had said they would never invest in online equity investing platform and changed view for Series A – marketplaces solve need
      • Series B was 30 days from start to invest and series C was easier
    • When someone else doesn’t believe in him, he further believes in himself – energizes him (when teammates believe in him and opponents don’t – at his best)
      • Very small details for most meetings that are still vivid for him – uses as fuel
  • Arielle Zuckerberg (@ariellezuck), Partner at Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers (20min VC 2/14/16)
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    • Joined in 2015 and focuses on early stage investment in digital practice
    • Started as PM after CS and Philosophy at Claremont McKenna
      • Wildfire Interactive acquired by Google in 2012 where she then worked on social ads
      • then went to small startup called Humin for 2 years and started angel investing
    • A lot of investments since you chase after 1 company that likely returns the portfolio
      • How to evaluate the team, market, differentiated product, terms of valuation
    • Being a great listener – give them feedback and they would come back every time with a better pitch
      • First few months of venture – personal challenge for thinking of people based on their intellectual capital
        • How can they be helpful? Will this person be helpful toward portfolio? Will this person be a potential founder?
        • Struggles with this as she’s becoming more transactional. Didn’t experience it as an angel investor.
    • While interviewing for firms, many people offered to give her introductions (warm, mostly)
      • Small handful of interviews – conversational in nature, questions on background – what motivates her and how she’d fit
      • Taking Tyler’s class gave her energy for VC
    • Google, AI and CV – AI as a service – ubiquitous as in the cloud
      • Many industries being productized for first time – likes blockchain and smart contracts
    • Goals: Source a deal for Kleiner within a year that will have invested where world is better place/impactful
      • Inspire more women to be in VC and female founders – although talked about finding and talking with many women in VC
    • NYE: blog more for 2016, had concrete resolutions for doing a pull-up and moonwalk – did at firm holiday event
    • Favorite book: The Symposium by Plato
    • Respecting founders who have a belief that others don’t really have – ex: Evan Spiegel as phones being more a camera than anything else
      • John Doerr and Mary Meeker
    • Best part of VC – talking to amazing people and hearing other opinions (as youngest of 4 siblings)
      • Introduction of creative conflict, vision for where future is going
    • Firm’s recent investment – team execution is crazy, tons of time with customers, great listeners, improved deck 20% each time
  • Barry McCarthy, CFO of Spotify (former CFO of Netflix), Stacey Cunningham, Pres of NYSE (a16z 12/10/19)
    netflix-300x170-1

    • Direct Listings, Myths and Facts – architecting the direct listing as it currently stands and how they talked to the SEC
    • The Street interpreting compared to guidance and what to expect – analysts wanted to BEAT guidance instead of get something close
    • Pricing inequities – price discovery in direct listings compared to offerings
      • Large portfolio (AUM) has IPO immaterial – first day pop is meaningless and they have limited ownership in IPO but not direct listing
      • Institutional investors can dump the truck for direct listings for how they want
    • Lock-ups are artificial constraints
    • DMMs and financial advisors exist anyhow – still need s1 and filing/investor days involve same people
  • Michael Salfino, Ben Baldwin (Wharton Moneyball 12/11/19)

The Parallel for Company Building (Notes from Dec. 2 – Dec 8, 2019) April 13, 2020

Posted by Anthony in Automation, Data Science, Digital, experience, finance, Founders, global, medicine, NLP, questions, social, Uncategorized.
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Keeping this short because I’m working at putting the idea together. Love the parallel for a gym atmosphere and company building.

I bet it’s already forming in your head. Imagine the big class at a big box gym, the personal ones, classes, aggressive combat, cycling, different personalities in weight lifting, cardio spending and all the pairs of trainer + clients you can imagine. It’s in the works!

I do hope you enjoy the deep dive and notes I took in hearing Buck Woody’s AI podcast. You should also review Louis’s app for Total Brain. Wrap that up with Dustin Dolginow’s review on how to utilize the power of the internet to own the VC and investing interest.

Week of December 2, 2019

  • Louis Gagnon, CEO, Cofounder of TotalBrain (Work and Life, WhartonXM)
    BRAND •    Medium size • No tagline • v2 copy

    • Talking about each person having different brains, therefore different treatments
    • Making sure that the brain is merely a part of you, not all of you – racing
      • In these years, it’s a large amount of stress – good or bad
  • Buck Woody (@buckwoodymsft), Applied D/S at Microsoft (Data Skeptic 12/3/19)
    acastro_180507_1777_microsoft_0001.5

    • Lots of intricacies in bonsai trees
      • Last thing you get to learn is the watering can – easily under/over-water trees
      • Scissors as the primary tool
    • ML/AI/BI and advanced data analysis – rigor of right spread, amount, representation, statistics things are the watering can
      • If base data is wrong, the model is pointless
    • He works in the industries teaching classes on MS platform for SQL Server (which contains Spark and many other things), data science
      • Simply looking at the data – where did I get this? Say, financial projections: financial data (how do you know it’s here)
      • Predictions as pedantic/boring: preventative/maintenance predictions – wanted to ensure units wouldn’t fail
        • Half the time, predictions worked well, half the time, worked awful
          • How did the data report from the machines? Had to go to manual of machine (there was older, newer) to see data
          • Anomaly was that the older machine was reporting every 60 minutes, not minutes (which the newer was doing)
    • Works with many users – fraud and anomaly detection
      • Use case example of gaming company with cheating and making sure the data was good
    • Regionalized languages – programming as how you think of your solutions
      • Big things to do: Kubernetes and Containers – be very familiar with environments to make sure infrastructure is done well
    • Looking through data science process – who wears what hats, data engineers and DBA having overlapping roles
      • Many he comes across that don’t know that database guys can do much of what they’re looking for
      • Often the requirement, if given to data scientists late, will be multiple projects
    • Containers run-time – (docker) vs Docker
      • Text file (yaml) with Python 3.5, MySQL and code as file – compose into an image (gathered up version of those runtimes)
        • Tell Docker to run it – container – description to image to container – not representing memory and disc, just using that on station
        • Docker smart enough to recognize that it will run similar versions
    • Kubernetes – KAS
      • Another yaml file and engine, on a node (physical or virtual) with docker runtime, couple of services (networking, part of cluster) with

Master node that makes sure everything is happening – wrangles everything for you in a persistent volume for the pod since storage was an issue

  • Thinking of SQL as declarative language – select * from mytable isn’t what we do
    • Containers are declarative language for computers, essentially
    • Kubernetes is the platform or network for a full declarative network
  • Business intelligence in 90s – specialized people as parts of it with only some people knowing how to use, prechew for users and it took months
    • 5-6 years ago, this still remained – data scientist would spend 99% of time in economic data or weather data or whatever model, version or experiment
      • Walk out with tablets, thus save the data – maybe another she was working with, maybe not
    • Data engineer is most sought after job title – “everything but the algorithm” at Microsoft (LinkedIn)
      • Link – aka.ms\tdsp, defines out team structure for data science team with guides – devops, mlops, aiops, mlops
      • People are used to BI projects – one cube, answer lots of questions but with a data scientist, if you question “this and this and this..” – separate
        • 2 or 3 different data sets, can’t answer clustering question with regression algo, how many of these vs which things do they belong to
  • For large orgs: Do you know if you have a DB team? All data in its forms.
    • Showed someone SSIS done after a minute after they started pulling up R and his algorithms – “wizardry”
      • Used to work at NASA, talked of a friend scientist who landed a round camera on the moon ahead – had to turn it away from sun because it’d melt film
      • Some of cast of Star Trek would show up all the time at NASA, large glass rooms (lab coat, tie, white shirt)
        • James Doohan, Scotty was gonna show up. Scientists would go to break room and watch Star Trek in 60s (debate whether or not stuff was possible)
          • Mentions automatic door as someone being off camera in the 60s, possible or not on physics
        • Taking notes and turns camera back on – “Fascinating” from Leonard Nimoy on the outside of glass
    • He wants to make people know that they have people that can fold into data science team
      • Cultural that DBAs think they’ll need to be data scientists and data scientists that are territorial (don’t want people messing around)
  • Young: computational basics, logics, data processing
    • High level math – stats/linear algebra
    • Domain expert: particular vertical like healthcare, finance or patterns available for a width of an application of a tech
    • Learning to learn: how to pick up and put down knowledge – pace of learning something (can’t be an expert in the timeframe)
      • Pick language you like and then figure out how you’re learning it – then, do it again for others
    • Hours of studying that can be pre-chewed – lack of focused time, spend too much time on all of it
      • Confs where people get away to focus on a topic (until they get on their phone and blow it)
  • Where’s AI going? He says – going away. “Nobody says they have computers at the company anymore”
    • “I” or “e” in front of company and get funding anymore, same with cloud – just ubiquitous, computing/drive
    • Predictive/prebuilt AI now – text analysis, image processing, predictions
    • Need to know how to trust it or trusting it too much – aka.ms\ai-ethics
    • Flash fill, for instance, in Excel – Microsoft Research done in PROSE AI in the cell, disappears into product
  • Ex: PowerPoint presentation coach with mic on and it will critique you
  • Dustin Dolginow (@dolginow), GP at Maiden Lane (20min VC 2/10/16)
    ttcp_web_portfolio-update-logos-small_230x150_maidenlane

    • Online venture fund using AngelList as its o/s, capital partner to best angels in the world, investments in Getable, PipeDrive, Beepi
      • Also venture partner with Accomplice, was previous operator at Social Swipe allowing merchants to gain value from txn data
    • Went to college in East Coast, Wall Street at Lehman Brothers during crash and decided to do a product idea in payments for 1.5 years
      • Product dev, front-end and shifting from finance world – introduced to partner Jeff (running Atlas Ventures, renamed to Accomplice)
    • Started taking introductions to companies as Nidhi, Naval and AngelList would be giving them – since 2010 and normal user
      • Atlas lead the AngelList series A and every round since – 2012 moved to SF and make VC legal – 2013 for syndicates start
        • Lead a syndicates fund only in 2013 with Jeff – learn by doing and figure out what it meant – $25mln named for Maiden Lane in SF
          • Irony was AngelList HQ was on it, one of bailout funds for Goldman Sachs real estate was Maiden Lane
      • Figured Syndicates could be impactful for institutional investors, also
    • Moved to SF in 2014 to close the fund, April started investing in the fund
      • Native app on AngelList – (like saying Uber is Apple because on Apple) – put in their docs 50% off-A/L, 50% on but realized it was moving quickly
      • AngelList as unbundling the activities of VC – funds are containers for capital / infrastructure
        • AngelList has more flexibility but it’s a small container – box – they’re doing product first with data that it creates
    • Working with set of angel investors that take their money and invest on their behalf – share carried interest within GP’s (30% carry, no mgmt fee)
      • 15-20% of carried interest goes to syndicate leads – driving brand, operating within company, adding value, interacting
      • His goal is to shepherd to create resources for community (most syndicate leads have other jobs) – live work loft, for instance
    • Community and flexibility is a big part of it – consensus-based decisions, non-consensus (conviction for solo), LPs as direct investments for bigger broader
    • Entrepreneurs as understanding users’ needs – great community done by Ryan Hoover at Product Hunt
    • Most overhyped – prescription delivery, underhyped – Canada as country, developer tax credits
    • Goal for Maiden Lane – kickass set of syndicate leads that get called upon by lane
    • Last impression from a book: Development is Freedom by Amartya Sen
    • AtVenu – as most recent investment
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