Flawed Financial Decision? February 28, 2017Posted by bluedevil32 in finance, Uncategorized.
Tags: credit, experiences, finance, freedom, investing, Money, PVFV, taxes, Time
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This article has brought praise: SingleMomPaysRentforYearUsingTaxReturn. However, a basic understanding of future/present value is skipped in this story. I believe she’s choosing to be “responsible” in paying rent vs spending it on vacation or unnecessary items for her kids, but it also illustrates a lack of understanding for fundamental financial details (that should be MUCH more important to learn early on). Opportunity cost of losing the money for the year, or going into details of how she received so much for her return in the first place (lent FAR TOO MUCH money over the previous year).
About 5 years ago, there was a larger push in the financial services industry to bring an analyst/advisor to every high school to have “qualified” (debatable, but at least licensed) experts (this word is becoming annoying, as well) teach fundamental financial information to the future masses. I cannot attest to generations before me, but as far as my high school career went, CHEE (child, health, and something) and economics were the extent of in-school teaching. I was lucky enough to have a family that provided me an environment of numbers, games, and finances, as well as schools that pushed early for branching out. That doesn’t mean I have been without my own transgressions in a monetary realm, but can say that the high school classes didn’t scratch the surface of what I learned previously.
From students I talk to and teach in school now, I don’t believe the basic individual finances are taught, still. It could be a flawed forum in economics (as opportunity costs are discussed), and business courses go over concepts, but neither focus at an individual level. It needs to get better, and I’m not sure when anyone is or will be required to take these courses. I have friends out of MBA’s/Law School and Med Schools that never took courses on it. Luckily, for the curious and responsible ones, there is a wealth of information available now online, and as more people see larger and larger parts of networks, you hopefully become more comfortable to discuss them. For those that don’t, hopefully trial and error occurs earlier than later.
And people wonder how the debt continues to rack up…. That topic I’ll leave for another day. SingleMomPaysRentforYear
Personal finance inefficiencies – debt March 6, 2016Posted by bluedevil32 in Uncategorized.
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As an analytic, inefficiencies send my brain into overdrive wondering how they continue or what could be done to remedy them. Now, inefficiencies certainly have created markets where otherwise they may not have existed.
Most people should have been taught in Economics in high school about opportunity cost. This is the underlying concept behind most inefficiencies. The problem isn’t that the work does not get done – it’s that often, it’s done in the least economical way possible.
With the start-up financial lender I have been working with, I see it everyday with borrowers. People just do not [want to] understand their own finances. The principal concept of financial fitness is an excellent one. When in some debt where you have reached the point that you pay and pay and pay without making a dent due to high interest rates and the compounding, there should be the trigger that goes off that initiates a new, better-structured debt that will rid you of the one that has you in quicksand. Structured payments that won’t change over a 3 or 5-year term – and done, often or hopefully at a similar or better amount and throw in less interest. Borrowers seem to only understand that the investments/savings they put away is more important earning 6-8% than to rid themselves of the compounding 15, 20, even 30% interest slogging them down. Alas, money is money and the interest lost to credit cards will cancel that return you so craved for the year.
This is why we see borrowers receiving $15,000 / yr in disability at an advanced age or the middle-aged earner pulling in $200k, or the graduate of a university seeking to remove the debt placed on them from the inefficiencies of universities advancing tuition at a rate 200 times that of inflation over the last 30-40 years (we won’t go in to why they feel they can do this). Some ask the right questions, others do not. They see the numbers for the terms in front of them and blindly exclaim that it doesn’t work – why can rates be high if they earn x dollars and have xxx fico. Then when we look, they have savings or investments that could easily take care of the interest/debt extra but people do not understand that it’s usable – and likely a better option.
It’s no wonder why the average household holds $15k in credit card debt or total any type of debt of $130k (as taken by Q3 ’15 in NerdWallet data) where income as been outpaced by inflation and the average household pays $2500/yr in credit card interest alone. All of the little things add up, and people do not realize that. $6.85 a day sounds reasonable until you look at the $2500 for the year. What’s not having a coffee or as big a lunch as you planned? Well, over the year, that would equate to a substantial sum.
Information is available, but it needs to be read and talked about and understood. More importantly, it needs to be acted upon properly.
Eliminate bad debt that costs you and budget for the rest. You will realize there is a substantial amount that remains – and better, you’ll have the authority to control where you put it!
Off to the Super Bowl!! January 25, 2016Posted by bluedevil32 in experience, NFL, Uncategorized.
Tags: AFC Championship, Denver Broncos, experiences, Fantasy football, NFL, sports, Super Bowl
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As what feels like a displaced fan at times, the highs and lows can be lonely! Thankfully, social media and the few like-minded friends make it a bit easier to spread the passion. Sports make us go through the whole spectrum of emotions – there is a brutal honesty in sports. At the same time, there can be a sweetness, a euphoric cry. Games that send you into an abyss (Super Bowl XLVIII) where the whole world melted away along with my Broncos’ chances. Luckily, it was quick. Seattle pummeled them from the first kick and the initial safety. It was like preparing for a slow band-aid but someone yanked it off once they grabbed enough.
Last year, it was revenge. Anything to see the Seahawks have their joy ripped from their hands. I remember the interception vividly. I surrounded myself by a good friend, new friends and strangers at a home. Consolation was that I won squares (moneys!) and a comeback for the ages in cornhole at half-time. Down 4-19 and had to cancel to keep going. It only seemed right that things continued to go my way. I recall only 1 or 2 Seahawks fans that were really only cheering against the Patriots. The other 28-30 people? New England fans for the day (I remember fans of the Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Broncos, Panthers) all watching intensely. Sports are rewarding for the quick, deep connections that are established – our brains groove the moments forever – people, plays, players, teams, date & time melded together for future versions of us to recall at the mention of a play, name, even a commercial!
I am spoiled. I have deep connections to generally winning franchises in the form of the Duke Blue Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Atlanta Braves, Denver Broncos, Bayern Munich. The Sacramento Kings are my lone-championship-less squad. But guess what? If it’s that great of a year, they’ll go all “We Believe” on the exact team that started it, and if I’m blindly biased (as all great fans should be), that will charge them to a title in just 7 few years! The Braves have won 1 title but were so good for so many years. The Red Wings during the 90s and start of 00s were dynastic. The Broncos had the late 80s and finally got over the hump with back-to-back titles in 97-98. Duke has spread their titles out since 2000 – doing their best when not thought of as the consensus favorite – hmmm out of the top 15 this year??
The Broncos, this year, have followed a similar pattern. Last year felt like a lot of pressure after the wipeout in the Super Bowl. New pattern – defense! 6-0 start with a sorry offense. A faux resurgence with Brock until that came crashing down during ugly second halves. Then the Peyton energy boost in the playoffs. So far, I’m just crossing my fingers. Health. A healthy defense for the first time in 4-5 years (as long as Wolfe is fine).
I couldn’t watch the 3rd Patriots drive inside our 20. Didn’t want to blow it. The offense looked so bad. The defense was the one that deserved to win it. Brady did a fantastic job of avoiding 4…5…6 sacks? Any of which could have ended the game. Gronk is a beast – and that truly worries me for Greg Olsen. But they got it done – big INT on the 2-pt conversion. Lots of pressure.
We go through a lot as fans. I won’t pretend to know what it feels like to be on the field experiencing it. But that’s the player’s jobs. For fans – it can be life. Luckily, I like to think that it’s just a joyful privilege that we can experience so much from watching a game.
Thank you, sports. Thank you, Broncos! Let’s go on this last, little ride with Peyton.
Let’s go Denver! Let’s go Broncos Country! #OrangeCrush #NoFlyZone #OutonTop
Week 9 FanDuel LU Review – Working on Higher Average Scores November 9, 2015Posted by bluedevil32 in Uncategorized.
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First off, I have used/tried a plethora of Optimizers, and to date, I’m not sure any of them are excellent as they stand. It comes down to tweaks, feel, and adjustments – then the optimizer can fill in as you see fit. Having said that, the apparent leader from where I stand, is a combination of FantasyLabs with their trends, projections, models, and game-by-game analysis. The information is all in front – it’s up to you what you do with the information. FantasyPros has been a blessing as well for me, until I get my full usage of FantasyLabs (awaiting Android before committing). Between the fun Start/Sit contest each week (this week went terribly, last week I finished ahead of every expert) and the line-up contest for FanDuel & DraftKings, the projections are crowd-sourced and demonstrate the feel for players across the league each week.
Top line-up for FD so far: 161.14 points (no players left), good for 4th in Mike Vick’s 100 person league so far.
QB D. Carr RB Ingram RB McFadden WR Crabtree WR A. Brown WR D. Thomas TE G. Olsen K J. Brown DEF Bills
RB’s were a bit disappointing as well as Demaryius’ line. Greg Olsen and Josh Brown helped make that up, though. And clearly, Derek Carr/Crabtree stack worked out with Antonio Brown (284 yards! Christ!)
Second line-up for FD: 155.56 (2 entries)
QB Rodgers RB McFadden RB Langford (to go tonight) WR A Brown WR Crabtree WR Cobb TE Olsen K Walsh DEF Falcons
Rodgers/Cobb recovered in the 4th quarter nicely and paired with the WR’s Crabtree/Brown, did well.
Worst line-up for FD: 95.76 (1 entry)
QB Winston RB D. Lewis (hurt) RB D. Martin (crappy) WR M. Evans (drops aplenty) WR Odell WR Cooper TE Reed K McManus DEF Saints – Evans couldn’t catch what Winston wanted him to. Martin didn’t get to 20 carries. Odell/Cooper saved days with TD’s each, as did Reed (nonexistent thru 3 qtrs). Saints got shellacked by Mariota. Happens when you try to get cute with line-ups – too many Bucs!
I’ll recap Draftkings tomorrow and tell the results of my Fanduel line-ups.
For now, good luck people. Hope for a shoot-out tonight? I think so.
Week 5 Quick Review & Week 6 Start October 14, 2015Posted by bluedevil32 in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, NFL, Stacks, Week 5, Week 6.
Tags: 2015, Analysis, books, Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experiences, Fanduel, Fantasy football, research
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So, I’m going to keep this brief. I got way too ballsy this past week. Too many tournaments, too much risk, and not enough lineups to increase variation. I got slammed with wrong choices in having Demaryius / Julio in almost all line-ups. I got hurt by Lacy’s lack of pass-catching (and too much emphasis on home success for GB) & JC’s injury. TE & D/ST picks were bad, as well. Charles Clay didn’t do anything & Bennett was targeted 11 times but caught only 4 in what played out as an underperform. Jaguars got shellacked and the Giants, for whatever reason, created minimal pressure Sunday night. Well – that’s a lot of bad in spots that statistically should have been consistently high-floor.
So, the good? Rivers & Bell saved my ass Monday night so I didn’t get blanked. I wasn’t on ABrown due to Vick’s lack of rapport with him, which was good in a fade-case. Allen Robinson performed with Blake Bortles (who I was on in a few leagues). Rivers had a few good games. Brady/Edelman worked out after the 4th qtr touchdown but Gronk disappointed for how expensive he was. Dion Lewis was productive. I was not on Devonta Freeman and he continued to have a nice game. I also faded a good Doug Martin spot (suspect weather, minimal passing potentially). I figured that I would have scored with a few lineups in the high 140’s but I didn’t. Only one lineup hit 165+ and cashed on DK.
I will try to do better – buckled down and read through more of Jonathan Bales’ series Fantasy Football for Smart People. Staying consistent with bankroll management and being diligent with a process weekly will be vital in success. To compile the statistics, I’ll likely use a trial for DailyFantasyNerd or Fantasy Labs to ensure I have the data in one spot. I could create a page for myself, but that will be fine-tuning what I want to use consistently.
So, let’s start with defenses. I read through Bill Barnwell of Grantland’s NFL Statistical Temperature. Without looking at this week’s schedule, I pared down defenses that I would be interested in playing, depending on home/away, weather, opponent, in no particular order.
Denver, Arizona, GB, NYJ (w/out a D TD so far) are the top tier. TEN, DET, NE, CIN, SEA, CAR would be the next, likely. PHI, MIN and ATL have been making plays but could be inconsistent depending on game flow.
RB’s – Forte, Foster, TJ Yeldon look good so far. Ryan Mathews has been productive. Do we continue to ride Devonta?
WR’s – Hopkins is just gobbling up targets for ppr leagues. AJ Green could be interesting – I feel like Dalton alternates between his receivers/tight ends. Just focuses in on them. EIfert was last week so Green could be this week. We cannot forget about TASER, Bryan Mears’ new statistic – anticipatory of red zone regression for touchdowns (potentially). Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen headline it. Of those, I’d think Cooper & Golden Tate are most likely to score (Denver needs to get NEAR the red zone first and Keenan may be left out since Antonio is back). Let’s flip a coin between Hurns/Robinson again or play them both – that’s worked before. Snead on a Thursday night could be a fade position, or minimal play because of the cheap cost still. We all THINK it will be high-scoring… but will it on a Thursday with Julio in pain? I’d like to think that it won’t be and be in better position Sunday.
TE’s – I’ll have some action with Gronk & Gates. Chargers will have to throw against GB. Eifert played incredibly on Sunday (thanks to that for my main season-long league). Barnidge is apparently a) a real-life football player and b) target monster. Charles Clay is near the top of TASER as well, but with Tyrod potentially out, I may want to avoid that Bills line-up altogether.
These are my initial thoughts – I’ll see today and tomorrow what I can put together and post going forward.
Good luck to the ALDS teams today in their Game 5’s!
Happy to say my Red Wings in NHL are an impressive 3-0-0 with a +7 differential to go with the Broncos 5-0. Keep it up!