Off to the Super Bowl!! January 25, 2016
Posted by Anthony in experience, NFL, Uncategorized.Tags: AFC Championship, Denver Broncos, experiences, Fantasy football, NFL, sports, Super Bowl
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As what feels like a displaced fan at times, the highs and lows can be lonely! Thankfully, social media and the few like-minded friends make it a bit easier to spread the passion. Sports make us go through the whole spectrum of emotions – there is a brutal honesty in sports. At the same time, there can be a sweetness, a euphoric cry. Games that send you into an abyss (Super Bowl XLVIII) where the whole world melted away along with my Broncos’ chances. Luckily, it was quick. Seattle pummeled them from the first kick and the initial safety. It was like preparing for a slow band-aid but someone yanked it off once they grabbed enough.
Last year, it was revenge. Anything to see the Seahawks have their joy ripped from their hands. I remember the interception vividly. I surrounded myself by a good friend, new friends and strangers at a home. Consolation was that I won squares (moneys!) and a comeback for the ages in cornhole at half-time. Down 4-19 and had to cancel to keep going. It only seemed right that things continued to go my way. I recall only 1 or 2 Seahawks fans that were really only cheering against the Patriots. The other 28-30 people? New England fans for the day (I remember fans of the Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Broncos, Panthers) all watching intensely. Sports are rewarding for the quick, deep connections that are established – our brains groove the moments forever – people, plays, players, teams, date & time melded together for future versions of us to recall at the mention of a play, name, even a commercial!
I am spoiled. I have deep connections to generally winning franchises in the form of the Duke Blue Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Atlanta Braves, Denver Broncos, Bayern Munich. The Sacramento Kings are my lone-championship-less squad. But guess what? If it’s that great of a year, they’ll go all “We Believe” on the exact team that started it, and if I’m blindly biased (as all great fans should be), that will charge them to a title in just 7 few years! The Braves have won 1 title but were so good for so many years. The Red Wings during the 90s and start of 00s were dynastic. The Broncos had the late 80s and finally got over the hump with back-to-back titles in 97-98. Duke has spread their titles out since 2000 – doing their best when not thought of as the consensus favorite – hmmm out of the top 15 this year??
The Broncos, this year, have followed a similar pattern. Last year felt like a lot of pressure after the wipeout in the Super Bowl. New pattern – defense! 6-0 start with a sorry offense. A faux resurgence with Brock until that came crashing down during ugly second halves. Then the Peyton energy boost in the playoffs. So far, I’m just crossing my fingers. Health. A healthy defense for the first time in 4-5 years (as long as Wolfe is fine).
I couldn’t watch the 3rd Patriots drive inside our 20. Didn’t want to blow it. The offense looked so bad. The defense was the one that deserved to win it. Brady did a fantastic job of avoiding 4…5…6 sacks? Any of which could have ended the game. Gronk is a beast – and that truly worries me for Greg Olsen. But they got it done – big INT on the 2-pt conversion. Lots of pressure.
We go through a lot as fans. I won’t pretend to know what it feels like to be on the field experiencing it. But that’s the player’s jobs. For fans – it can be life. Luckily, I like to think that it’s just a joyful privilege that we can experience so much from watching a game.
Thank you, sports. Thank you, Broncos! Let’s go on this last, little ride with Peyton.
Let’s go Denver! Let’s go Broncos Country! #OrangeCrush #NoFlyZone #OutonTop
Week 5 Quick Review & Week 6 Start October 14, 2015
Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, NFL, Stacks, Week 5, Week 6.Tags: 2015, Analysis, books, Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experiences, Fanduel, Fantasy football, research
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So, I’m going to keep this brief. I got way too ballsy this past week. Too many tournaments, too much risk, and not enough lineups to increase variation. I got slammed with wrong choices in having Demaryius / Julio in almost all line-ups. I got hurt by Lacy’s lack of pass-catching (and too much emphasis on home success for GB) & JC’s injury. TE & D/ST picks were bad, as well. Charles Clay didn’t do anything & Bennett was targeted 11 times but caught only 4 in what played out as an underperform. Jaguars got shellacked and the Giants, for whatever reason, created minimal pressure Sunday night. Well – that’s a lot of bad in spots that statistically should have been consistently high-floor.
So, the good? Rivers & Bell saved my ass Monday night so I didn’t get blanked. I wasn’t on ABrown due to Vick’s lack of rapport with him, which was good in a fade-case. Allen Robinson performed with Blake Bortles (who I was on in a few leagues). Rivers had a few good games. Brady/Edelman worked out after the 4th qtr touchdown but Gronk disappointed for how expensive he was. Dion Lewis was productive. I was not on Devonta Freeman and he continued to have a nice game. I also faded a good Doug Martin spot (suspect weather, minimal passing potentially). I figured that I would have scored with a few lineups in the high 140’s but I didn’t. Only one lineup hit 165+ and cashed on DK.
Week 6
I will try to do better – buckled down and read through more of Jonathan Bales’ series Fantasy Football for Smart People. Staying consistent with bankroll management and being diligent with a process weekly will be vital in success. To compile the statistics, I’ll likely use a trial for DailyFantasyNerd or Fantasy Labs to ensure I have the data in one spot. I could create a page for myself, but that will be fine-tuning what I want to use consistently.
So, let’s start with defenses. I read through Bill Barnwell of Grantland’s NFL Statistical Temperature. Without looking at this week’s schedule, I pared down defenses that I would be interested in playing, depending on home/away, weather, opponent, in no particular order.
Denver, Arizona, GB, NYJ (w/out a D TD so far) are the top tier. TEN, DET, NE, CIN, SEA, CAR would be the next, likely. PHI, MIN and ATL have been making plays but could be inconsistent depending on game flow.
RB’s – Forte, Foster, TJ Yeldon look good so far. Ryan Mathews has been productive. Do we continue to ride Devonta?
WR’s – Hopkins is just gobbling up targets for ppr leagues. AJ Green could be interesting – I feel like Dalton alternates between his receivers/tight ends. Just focuses in on them. EIfert was last week so Green could be this week. We cannot forget about TASER, Bryan Mears’ new statistic – anticipatory of red zone regression for touchdowns (potentially). Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen headline it. Of those, I’d think Cooper & Golden Tate are most likely to score (Denver needs to get NEAR the red zone first and Keenan may be left out since Antonio is back). Let’s flip a coin between Hurns/Robinson again or play them both – that’s worked before. Snead on a Thursday night could be a fade position, or minimal play because of the cheap cost still. We all THINK it will be high-scoring… but will it on a Thursday with Julio in pain? I’d like to think that it won’t be and be in better position Sunday.
TE’s – I’ll have some action with Gronk & Gates. Chargers will have to throw against GB. Eifert played incredibly on Sunday (thanks to that for my main season-long league). Barnidge is apparently a) a real-life football player and b) target monster. Charles Clay is near the top of TASER as well, but with Tyrod potentially out, I may want to avoid that Bills line-up altogether.
These are my initial thoughts – I’ll see today and tomorrow what I can put together and post going forward.
Good luck to the ALDS teams today in their Game 5’s!
Happy to say my Red Wings in NHL are an impressive 3-0-0 with a +7 differential to go with the Broncos 5-0. Keep it up!
Week 4 Results – DK Fail & FanDuel Success October 7, 2015
Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, gym, NFL, Stacks, week 4.Tags: 2015, Analysis, Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experiences, Fanduel, Fantasy football, stacks
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Yup, that’s right! FanDuel – there wasn’t a contest that I didn’t place in. Mainly due to the fact that my lineups did very well in all of the 50/50’s, DoubleUps and free-rolls. However, on draftkings, where I played a majority of tournaments, I was very close to min. cash or not in the money at all.
For week 3, I was gone/without service all weekend, so the few lineups I had in, I minimally cashed/lost. 2 weeks in a row on DK that I have lost a few $ here and there (not to mention the fun runs I took at LoL Championships as well as Wed-Fri spread of MLB games – not wise when teams were already clinched or didn’t care).
- Fanduel results:
5 entries played – 4 wins – 2 ticket (survivor advance, barely)
I don’t remember where I read it, but there was an analysis done on larger 50/50’s where, assuming you’re on average better than a majority of players, you have a greater success rate in larger pools. So far, that’s proved to be correct.- In $350k Double-Up (with nearly 75k entries), I placed 5842 with a score of 123.74 ($5 entry for $10 winnings).
Dalton/Green stack with LMurray, Karlos, Demaryius, Amari, MBennett, MBryant/Falcons D stack (high score) - FPFC Qualifier Double-Up (152 of 521) with score of 111.94 ($10 entry for $20 winnings)
Carr/Crabtree stack w/ Karlos, JCharles, JuJones (ouch), JaJones, Barnidge (savior), Hauschka/Seattle D stack - Excl Football Guys Contest didn’t go that well (777 of 3119) with 110.84 ($2 entry $2 win)
same as FPFC except swapped JamesJones/Barnidge for Amari & Martellus - FBGFC Qualifier Double-Up tournament (32 of 1097) with 130.06 ($10 entry $20 win & ticket later in season)
Cam, Forte, Karlos, Julio, Amari, Moncrief, Martellus, Josh Lambo (nice 14), Falcons D (yup) - $250k Sun NFL Survivor Tourney (42406 of 57471) with 88.54 ($5 entry, ticket won, advanced)
Dalton/Green stack with Randle/LMurray(ouch comb 13), demaryius, stevieJ (ugh), ebron (injured), mcmanus/Denver D stack (decent scores) - FantasyPros $2000 contest for saved lineups – placed 65 of 951 for $20 credit on FD (devonta and andy dalton)
- In $350k Double-Up (with nearly 75k entries), I placed 5842 with a score of 123.74 ($5 entry for $10 winnings).
- So I found that I like stacking kickers with the defenses so far. Relatively positive correlation and it has worked with a select few kickers/defense – good field position relations, typically.
- Draftkings results:
- As I mentioned, this didn’t go as well. Likely because I played in too many tournaments.
- In the double-ups I played, I cashed in all 3. So for those keeping count, I was 6 for 6.
- Same lineup for 3 double-ups score of 136.74 (62 of 217), (99 of 340), (423 of 1135) for 3x $1 entries, $2 each of winnings
Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre (2nd half!!), JuJones, Bennett (yup), Broncos D - I played all-day Sunday teams and had a ~112 score, while I played early Sunday match lineups and had those go for 147 and 144 for winners.
- 2x $.25 Arcade & $2k First Down ($1 entry, $2 win) earlies for $.50 winnings on $.25 entries (144.66 score)
Tyrod/Karlos/Clay/Bills D stack w/ Forte, AJ Green, T.Y., Deandre (savior), AllenRob - Had a ThursSun Line-up that did terribly (103.96) for $3 entry and 0 winnings
Flacco/SmithSr/MaxxWill/Ravens stack, Leveon, Ivory (rb successes), ABrown, Rishard, Jarvis (wr duds) - Played $0.25 Quarter Arcade (Sun only) for $1 entry, $2 winnings (147.56 score)
Rodgers, Devonta (great), Hyde, Keenan, Amari, JuJones, Fleener (good), Karlos, Raiders D - Daily Dollar ($50k) $1 entry for $2 win (136.74 score for 9220 of 52596)
Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre, JuJones, Bennett, Broncos D - 130.16 score didn’t work for $1 $150k First Down or $0.25 Arcade
Rodgers/Packers, Devonta, Gore, Evans, JuJones, Moncrief, Olsen, Karlos - Another Flacco / Ravens stack for Thurs-Sun produced the 112, which didn’t go well in any of the 3 entries (-$5).
- So we’ll see. Seems consistent with stacks where I’ll go 2 for 4 and hope that the stacks hit bigger. This week, they didn’t do as much because of the chalk not performing as well. The few good calls at TE and Devonta saved those stacks to at least cash.
We’ll see how the next week goes – I may end up trying more double-ups to at least build bankroll.
To next week!
Week 2 NFL DFS Recap September 23, 2015
Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, experience, NFL, Week 2.Tags: 2015, Analysis, Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, Fanduel, Fantasy football, Money, NFL, Tournaments, week 2
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I woke up this morning to news from the lineup optimizer on FantasyPros: “CONGRATS! You came in 14th out of 1,728 players in our DraftKings Lineup Contest. Claim your $20 DraftKings Prize: You’re all set. The $20 prize will be credited to the DraftKings use”
QB Flacco, RB Forsett, RB Lynch, FLEX Hyde (two weaknesses), WR A Brown, WR A Robinson, WR J Landry, TE Gillmore, D Ravens
- I played 5 H2H’s – one lost on Monday night. I went 1-1 in $5 H2H (net -$1), 1-2 in $1 H2H (net -$1.20).
- I played 3 freerolls and went winless.
- Where I did make my money was in $0.25 arcades, $1 and $3 tourneys.
- I placed 1405 of 115k for $7 on a $1 entry (net $6) with 180.36
- I played 5 quarter arcades (3-2) for 3 entries won (net $3.75) – 188.66, 180.36 and 171.96.
- I played 2 $1 entry to $10k gpp and finished 149 and 151 of 11.5k entries (180.36 and 180.26) for (net $8)
- I found great success with stacking Pitt (Big Ben, Deangelo, ABrown, Heath) as well as mixing in Woodhead, TWill, and the Cardinals D.
- Flacco, Forsett (eh), Gillmore and Ravens D (eh) with receivers ABrown, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis. Marshawn was not a success but needed a big horse to anchor the RB spots.
- I had Saints and Eagles stacks that did not perform very well. Luckily, they were good enough in h2h games, saved by other receiver plays.
Until next week, see you!
Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 Results September 15, 2015
Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, NFL, Week 1.Tags: 2015, Analysis, Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, Fanduel, Fantasy football, LXG, Money, NFL, SuperLobby, Tournaments, Week 1
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So, after 1 week I am in the black quite a bit, despite an overall losing record! Who doesn’t like those tournaments?!
Last year I was going more off of a feel for playing and breaking even. This year, I will look for tournament opportunities for overlay and pad with a better performance on h2h, triple ups or 50/50s. Fortunately, for overlays (where value is much higher per entry because the guaranteed money does not meet the number of entries), I stumbled upon a number of sites that aid in finding these. Namely, Super Lobby! which combines Draftkings and Fanduel (among others) to show overlay in tournaments. Incredibly useful for the people who are trying to be smart about entry fees.
For those that are curious how I did this past week, continue reading. Otherwise, I will post who I’m looking at and what I’m doing for Week 2 in the coming days! Again, if you’re looking to play or take a shot: Draftkings link! – Remember to search for a promo code on your favorite fantasy / insider website to valuable premium subscriptions (Rotogrinders, 4for4, fantasypros, teamrankings). Fanduel if you prefer .5 ppr and Kickers