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How to Motivate Yourself to Build (Notes from Jan. 27 to Feb. 2, 2020) July 22, 2020

Posted by Anthony in cannabis, DFS, Digital, Draftkings, education, experience, FanDuel, global, Leadership, medicine, NFL, social, sports, Strategy, Time, training, WomenInWork.
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Nope, I’m asking. Not telling. It’s constantly a challenge.

Let’s see. A will to win. Certain things provide you a much clearer picture of an end goal. In life or careers, there is often always a next step for those that are driven. I know many people that have said it’s not a linear path, and therefore you see steps/ladders that may be uneven. It’s hard to take that into consideration to pursue action, then, especially if you’re back at square one. It must be some secondary motivator that keeps us looking forward.

I have an idea page of things I want to pursue. Talking about potential pursuits may be a first step. Talking with others, another. Writing them down allows a concrete step toward accountability. Then, what’s next? Talk to potential customers, people in the space, people that could be of interest. Design something, wireframe or code out a rough sketch. Maybe it’s something to see how much of a concrete idea it is. Ideas sometimes just need another opinion to spur passion – whatever can provide the spark to go further.

With a next step in a career, an idea written out for the next step can be a good thing. Approaching mentors or potential mentors or bosses (strategically) may be that step of accountability. The more people involved, the more likely that path could be disrupted as incentives to provide clear steps wane. The earlier you find that out, the better. It’s unfortunate but situations and circumstances can change on a whim for anyone, so it compounds with involvement of others. I’ve seen that time and time again with friends.

Now, I hope I didn’t discourage with that last paragraph. That wasn’t my intention. So, here’s some good news – work has become increasingly global with the progression of the internet / web, more so this year. There are more people online sharing, collaborating, open to discussion with minimal work except seeking the communities out. Tools are better organized and more broadly applied to help, and more people are generally sharing their experience for us to pattern match or adjust. Action is the step. Or asking what the action may be. Take it together.

  • Coach Paul Alexander, Josh Hermsmeyer (Wharton Moneyball 1/22/20)
    • If you pit OL vs DL – OL is more reliable, similar to pitcher vs batter and pitcher wins
    • Beane in Moneyball – didn’t have money to spend so he wanted to get shots at college players since they were less random
      • PFF using survival curves (as time) for measuring lines (from PFF data scientist Timo Riske)
    • 16 of 17 INTs for Mahomes has been < 5 rushers
    • Coach – more hand-oriented now in passing game than leg-driving or shoulders for the evolution of run blocking
    • Josh – turned his attention to music and predicting the first song for halftime show
      • Prop from last year – how long will the national anthem last?
        • Over time, singer spent on song increased (ARIMA model) and he looked at male and female but female was longer at end
        • Gladys ended up going over
      • Billboard is predicting JLo’s most popular song – 20% as Let’s Get Loud or On The Floor (books, too)
        • Acts don’t often start with the most popular song, they end it
        • Setlist.fm as going through common starts
      • Game plan to push as many in the box with the numbers advantage, force Jimmy G to beat them
    • Some quantitative coaching models at PFF and other places
      • Mostert as the 2nd fastest athlete in NFL at the line, behind only Lamar Jackson, by mph
    • Helpful to sit behind someone as QB? (Jimmy, Rodgers, Mahomes) but counters as Peyton (thrown in), Steve Young
      • Qb as living embodiment of the system, not necessarily ‘system qb’
      • When do we get a handle on a QB?
    • Owners as billionaires that earned money in a different industry and hope to be able to transition to teams
      • Experience may or may not come – putting right people in there, getting lucky with all of the processes
      • Little edges, enough chances and them adding up together to finally have success while living through the ups and downs
  • Ian Levy, Michael Hill (Wharton Moneyball 1/29/20)
    • Super Bowl week, Kobe Bryant death – Shaq statement and Kendrick Perkins clamoring for hatchet to be buried with Kdurant
    • MJ’s 3 and 2 years off and then another 3 – only had Scottie as the overlap of players
      • Kobe – 2 rings but 3 straight finals with Pau, sans Shaq, Lebron – taking some poor players and winning rings
      • Teams and styles that have changed to give credit to the great ones
    • Sac down 17 points with 2min 49 sec – broke a streak of 8,378 straight games of losses
  • Dr. Shaili Jain, Prof of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, PTSD Treatment, author of “Unspeakable Mind” (Wharton XM, Future of Everything)
    • Father was a war vet & born in India, Shaili grew up in England and what she ever knew
    • Muted emotions, insidious infiltration of how people work, play and create beyond mind and brain
      • Infiltrates organs, independent risk factors for heart disease, cancer
    • Too many factors, 1/3 genetic (not on marker-level, though) to determine PTSD levels or exposure
      • Dose matters – more deployments = more likely, and cumulative effects
    • Average clinicians outside of VA have a tough time to diagnose & treat whereas vets and exposed know where they can see it
      • Adherence is much lower in people with PTSD and this is massively under-recognized
    • Last thing people want to do is talk to therapists – avoided trauma or be cut off, isolated
      • Health problems often make them lose control
    • Hippocampus is smaller in those with PTSD (not sure if it’s cause or effect), amygdala (part of brain that controls danger)
      • Lot of work done in epigenetics, learned behaviors and environment (followed moms that were pregnant during 9/11, escaped)
        • Work done by Rachel at Mt Sinai to follow their children based on biomarkers – PTSD in them/child
    • Her take – future is in prevention on three levels – primary, secondary and tertiary
      • Primary: prevent the traumas and crimes
        • Lots of people were starting programs that FELT like it worked w/o evidence or metrics for them
          • How do you train women to defend themselves effectively? If you have it, you can scale and replicate. Still need $
      • Secondary: before and after trauma – “Golden Hours” – can you intervene to prevent onset of PTSD?
        • Showing up in ER, instead of waiting for weeks/months/years when they show up to a therapist
        • Group out of Atlanta’s Emory University in the ER that did RCTs to show those that got prolonged exposure medicine improved
          • Cortisol recipients had less PTSD compared to those that didn’t – brain can heal quickly, comparatively
      • Tertiary: integrated care – 10 years prior, she ditched her other-campus psychiatry office to primary care
        • People show up in primary care, not often in specialty offices, attack head on
    • Treatment – first line, standard therapy would be talk therapy (prolonged exposure, EMDR – eye movement desensitization & reprocessing)
      • Focus on dismantling trauma, discussing the event
      • Biggest body of evidence for this being successful as first-line treatment, discussion capability without emotional/physical stress
        • Exposure exercises – measurable body response
      • Meds as second-line treatment (prozac and friends)

Off to the Super Bowl!! January 25, 2016

Posted by Anthony in experience, NFL, Uncategorized.
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As what feels like a displaced fan at times, the highs and lows can be lonely! Thankfully, social media and the few like-minded friends make it a bit easier to spread the passion. Sports make us go through the whole spectrum of emotions – there is a brutal honesty in sports. At the same time, there can be a sweetness, a euphoric cry. Games that send you into an abyss (Super Bowl XLVIII) where the whole world melted away along with my Broncos’ chances. Luckily, it was quick. Seattle pummeled them from the first kick and the initial safety. It was like preparing for a slow band-aid but someone yanked it off once they grabbed enough.

Last year, it was revenge. Anything to see the Seahawks have their joy ripped from their hands. I remember the interception vividly. I surrounded myself by a good friend, new friends and strangers at a home. Consolation was that I won squares (moneys!) and a comeback for the ages in cornhole at half-time. Down 4-19 and had to cancel to keep going. It only seemed right that things continued to go my way. I recall only 1 or 2 Seahawks fans that were really only cheering against the Patriots. The other 28-30 people? New England fans for the day (I remember fans of the Vikings, 49ers, Packers, Broncos, Panthers) all watching intensely. Sports are rewarding for the quick, deep connections that are established – our brains groove the moments forever – people, plays, players, teams, date & time melded together for future versions of us to recall at the mention of a play, name, even a commercial!

I am spoiled. I have deep connections to generally winning franchises in the form of the Duke Blue Devils, Detroit Red Wings, Atlanta Braves, Denver Broncos, Bayern Munich. The Sacramento Kings are my lone-championship-less squad. But guess what? If it’s that great of a year, they’ll go all “We Believe” on the exact team that started it, and if I’m blindly biased (as all great fans should be), that will charge them to a title in just 7 few years! The Braves have won 1 title but were so good for so many years. The Red Wings during the 90s and start of 00s were dynastic. The Broncos had the late 80s and finally got over the hump with back-to-back titles in 97-98. Duke has spread their titles out since 2000 – doing their best when not thought of as the consensus favorite – hmmm out of the top 15 this year??

The Broncos, this year, have followed a similar pattern. Last year felt like a lot of pressure after the wipeout in the Super Bowl. New pattern – defense! 6-0 start with a sorry offense. A faux resurgence with Brock until that came crashing down during ugly second halves. Then the Peyton energy boost in the playoffs. So far, I’m just crossing my fingers. Health. A healthy defense for the first time in 4-5 years (as long as Wolfe is fine).
I couldn’t watch the 3rd Patriots drive inside our 20. Didn’t want to blow it. The offense looked so bad. The defense was the one that deserved to win it. Brady did a fantastic job of avoiding 4…5…6 sacks? Any of which could have ended the game. Gronk is a beast – and that truly worries me for Greg Olsen. But they got it done – big INT on the 2-pt conversion. Lots of pressure.

We go through a lot as fans. I won’t pretend to know what it feels like to be on the field experiencing it. But that’s the player’s jobs. For fans – it can be life. Luckily, I like to think that it’s just a joyful privilege that we can experience so much from watching a game.

Thank you, sports. Thank you, Broncos! Let’s go on this last, little ride with Peyton.

Let’s go Denver! Let’s go Broncos Country! #OrangeCrush #NoFlyZone #OutonTop

Week 5 Quick Review & Week 6 Start October 14, 2015

Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, NFL, Stacks, Week 5, Week 6.
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So, I’m going to keep this brief. I got way too ballsy this past week. Too many tournaments, too much risk, and not enough lineups to increase variation. I got slammed with wrong choices in having Demaryius / Julio in almost all line-ups. I got hurt by Lacy’s lack of pass-catching (and too much emphasis on home success for GB) & JC’s injury. TE & D/ST picks were bad, as well. Charles Clay didn’t do anything & Bennett was targeted 11 times but caught only 4 in what played out as an underperform. Jaguars got shellacked and the Giants, for whatever reason, created minimal pressure Sunday night. Well – that’s a lot of bad in spots that statistically should have been consistently high-floor.

So, the good? Rivers & Bell saved my ass Monday night so I didn’t get blanked. I wasn’t on ABrown due to Vick’s lack of rapport with him, which was good in a fade-case. Allen Robinson performed with Blake Bortles (who I was on in a few leagues). Rivers had a few good games. Brady/Edelman worked out after the 4th qtr touchdown but Gronk disappointed for how expensive he was. Dion Lewis was productive. I was not on Devonta Freeman and he continued to have a nice game. I also faded a good Doug Martin spot (suspect weather, minimal passing potentially). I figured that I would have scored with a few lineups in the high 140’s but I didn’t. Only one lineup hit 165+ and cashed on DK.


Week 6
I will try to do better – buckled down and read through more of Jonathan Bales’ series Fantasy Football for Smart People. Staying consistent with bankroll management and being diligent with a process weekly will be vital in success. To compile the statistics, I’ll likely use a trial for DailyFantasyNerd or Fantasy Labs to ensure I have the data in one spot. I could create a page for myself, but that will be fine-tuning what I want to use consistently.

So, let’s start with defenses. I read through Bill Barnwell of Grantland’s NFL Statistical Temperature. Without looking at this week’s schedule, I pared down defenses that I would be interested in playing, depending on home/away, weather, opponent, in no particular order.

Denver, Arizona, GB, NYJ (w/out a D TD so far) are the top tier. TEN, DET, NE, CIN, SEA, CAR would be the next, likely. PHI, MIN and ATL have been making plays but could be inconsistent depending on game flow.

RB’s – Forte, Foster, TJ Yeldon look good so far. Ryan Mathews has been productive. Do we continue to ride Devonta?
WR’s – Hopkins is just gobbling up targets for ppr leagues. AJ Green could be interesting – I feel like Dalton alternates between his receivers/tight ends. Just focuses in on them. EIfert was last week so Green could be this week. We cannot forget about TASER, Bryan Mears’ new statistic – anticipatory of red zone regression for touchdowns (potentially). Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas & Keenan Allen headline it. Of those, I’d think Cooper & Golden Tate are most likely to score (Denver needs to get NEAR the red zone first and Keenan may be left out since Antonio is back). Let’s flip a coin between Hurns/Robinson again or play them both – that’s worked before. Snead on a Thursday night could be a fade position, or minimal play because of the cheap cost still. We all THINK it will be high-scoring… but will it on a Thursday with Julio in pain? I’d like to think that it won’t be and be in better position Sunday.

TE’s – I’ll have some action with Gronk & Gates. Chargers will have to throw against GB. Eifert played incredibly on Sunday (thanks to that for my main season-long league). Barnidge is apparently a) a real-life football player and b) target monster. Charles Clay is near the top of TASER as well, but with Tyrod potentially out, I may want to avoid that Bills line-up altogether.

These are my initial thoughts – I’ll see today and tomorrow what I can put together and post going forward.

Good luck to the ALDS teams today in their Game 5’s!

Happy to say my Red Wings in NHL are an impressive 3-0-0 with a +7 differential to go with the Broncos 5-0. Keep it up!

Week 4 Results – DK Fail & FanDuel Success October 7, 2015

Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, Draftkings, experience, FanDuel, gym, NFL, Stacks, week 4.
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Yup, that’s right! FanDuel – there wasn’t a contest that I didn’t place in. Mainly due to the fact that my lineups did very well in all of the 50/50’s, DoubleUps and free-rolls. However, on draftkings, where I played a majority of tournaments, I was very close to min. cash or not in the money at all.

For week 3, I was gone/without service all weekend, so the few lineups I had in, I minimally cashed/lost. 2 weeks in a row on DK that I have lost a few $ here and there (not to mention the fun runs I took at LoL Championships as well as Wed-Fri spread of MLB games – not wise when teams were already clinched or didn’t care).

  • Fanduel results:
    5 entries played – 4 wins – 2 ticket (survivor advance, barely)
    I don’t remember where I read it, but there was an analysis done on larger 50/50’s where, assuming you’re on average better than a majority of players, you have a greater success rate in larger pools. So far, that’s proved to be correct.

    • In $350k Double-Up (with nearly 75k entries), I placed 5842 with a score of 123.74 ($5 entry for $10 winnings).
      Dalton/Green stack with LMurray, Karlos, Demaryius, Amari, MBennett, MBryant/Falcons D stack (high score)
    • FPFC Qualifier Double-Up (152 of 521) with score of 111.94 ($10 entry for $20 winnings)
      Carr/Crabtree stack w/ Karlos, JCharles, JuJones (ouch), JaJones, Barnidge (savior), Hauschka/Seattle D stack
    • Excl Football Guys Contest didn’t go that well (777 of 3119) with 110.84 ($2 entry $2 win)
      same as FPFC except swapped JamesJones/Barnidge for Amari & Martellus
    • FBGFC Qualifier Double-Up tournament (32 of 1097) with 130.06 ($10 entry $20 win & ticket later in season)
      Cam, Forte, Karlos, Julio, Amari, Moncrief, Martellus, Josh Lambo (nice 14), Falcons D (yup)
    • $250k Sun NFL Survivor Tourney (42406 of 57471) with 88.54 ($5 entry, ticket won, advanced)
      Dalton/Green stack with Randle/LMurray(ouch comb 13), demaryius, stevieJ (ugh), ebron (injured), mcmanus/Denver D stack (decent scores)
    • FantasyPros $2000 contest for saved lineups – placed 65 of 951 for $20 credit on FD (devonta and andy dalton)
  • So I found that I like stacking kickers with the defenses so far. Relatively positive correlation and it has worked with a select few kickers/defense – good field position relations, typically.
  • Draftkings results:
    • As I mentioned, this didn’t go as well. Likely because I played in too many tournaments.
    • In the double-ups I played, I cashed in all 3. So for those keeping count, I was 6 for 6.
    • Same lineup for 3 double-ups score of 136.74 (62 of 217), (99 of 340), (423 of 1135) for 3x $1 entries, $2 each of winnings
      Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre (2nd half!!), JuJones, Bennett (yup), Broncos D
    • I played all-day Sunday teams and had a ~112 score, while I played early Sunday match lineups and had those go for 147 and 144 for winners.
    • 2x $.25 Arcade & $2k First Down ($1 entry, $2 win) earlies for $.50 winnings on $.25 entries (144.66 score)
      Tyrod/Karlos/Clay/Bills D stack w/ Forte, AJ Green, T.Y., Deandre (savior), AllenRob
    • Had a ThursSun Line-up that did terribly (103.96) for $3 entry and 0 winnings
      Flacco/SmithSr/MaxxWill/Ravens stack, Leveon, Ivory (rb successes), ABrown, Rishard, Jarvis (wr duds)
    • Played $0.25 Quarter Arcade (Sun only) for $1 entry, $2 winnings (147.56 score)
      Rodgers, Devonta (great), Hyde, Keenan, Amari, JuJones, Fleener (good), Karlos, Raiders D
    • Daily Dollar ($50k) $1 entry for $2 win (136.74 score for 9220 of 52596)
      Carr/Crabtree stack, Gore, Karlos, Cobb, Deandre, JuJones, Bennett, Broncos D
    • 130.16 score didn’t work for $1 $150k First Down or $0.25 Arcade
      Rodgers/Packers, Devonta, Gore, Evans, JuJones, Moncrief, Olsen, Karlos
    • Another Flacco / Ravens stack for Thurs-Sun produced the 112, which didn’t go well in any of the 3 entries (-$5).
  • So we’ll see. Seems consistent with stacks where I’ll go 2 for 4 and hope that the stacks hit bigger. This week, they didn’t do as much because of the chalk not performing as well. The few good calls at TE and Devonta saved those stacks to at least cash.

We’ll see how the next week goes – I may end up trying more double-ups to at least build bankroll.

To next week!

Week 2 NFL DFS Recap September 23, 2015

Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, experience, NFL, Week 2.
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I woke up this morning to news from the lineup optimizer on FantasyPros: “CONGRATS! You came in 14th out of 1,728 players in our DraftKings Lineup Contest. Claim your $20 DraftKings Prize: You’re all set. The $20 prize will be credited to the DraftKings use”

Great news! I only entered 2 lineups since I had forgot about it, and my Ravens stack did very well.

QB Flacco, RB Forsett, RB Lynch, FLEX Hyde (two weaknesses), WR A Brown, WR A Robinson, WR J Landry, TE Gillmore, D Ravens

I have really enjoyed fantasypros – found them last year before the season so I have a pro subscription for seasonal fantasy and have found their optimizer one of my favorites. Nearly all of the data is pooled from experts across the industry.
First, let’s speak of Fanduel, where I played 3 lineups in a total of 6 contests. I had 2 H2H (one was free, other for $2), 1 50/50 league at $1, 1 DoubleUp for $2, another for $10, and a $4k tourney for $1. I won both H2H and the $10 double up. Something like $16.00 in fees for a simple winnings of $23, +$7 (~38%). The TeamRankings Football Championship Week 2 was my best scoring lineup – 123.2, good for 83 of 535. Lineup was saved by Antonio Brown (32) and Larry Fitz (33.2), Jordan Matthews garbage time TD (17), and consistent scoring from Bailey (8) and Texans D (6), but dragged by Brees, Abdullah, Lynch, ASJ.
99.9 was enough to win a the $2 and free H2H’s, rolling with Carson Palmer (22.2), John Brown (7), L Miller (6.7), Lynch (7.7), Garcon (11.3), ODB (24.1), Eifert (12.9), Josh Brown (9) and Ravens D (-1). RB’s didn’t end up haunting me in the H2H, thankfully.
With DraftKings, I had a lineup go for 188.66, one for 180.36, one for 171.96, 129.9, 122, 89.36, 80.26, 115.9, or 126.3.
  • I played 5 H2H’s – one lost on Monday night. I went 1-1 in $5 H2H (net -$1), 1-2 in $1 H2H (net -$1.20).
  • I played 3 freerolls and went winless.
  • Where I did make my money was in $0.25 arcades, $1 and $3 tourneys.
    • I placed 1405 of 115k for $7 on a $1 entry (net $6) with 180.36
    • I played 5 quarter arcades (3-2) for 3 entries won (net $3.75) – 188.66, 180.36 and 171.96.
    • I played 2 $1 entry to $10k gpp and finished 149 and 151 of 11.5k entries (180.36 and 180.26) for (net $8)
  • I found great success with stacking Pitt (Big Ben, Deangelo, ABrown, Heath) as well as mixing in Woodhead, TWill, and the Cardinals D.
  • Flacco, Forsett (eh), Gillmore and Ravens D (eh) with receivers ABrown, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis. Marshawn was not a success but needed a big horse to anchor the RB spots.
  • I had Saints and Eagles stacks that did not perform very well. Luckily, they were good enough in h2h games, saved by other receiver plays.

Until next week, see you!

Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 Results September 15, 2015

Posted by Anthony in Daily fantasy football, DFS, NFL, Week 1.
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So, after 1 week I am in the black quite a bit, despite an overall losing record! Who doesn’t like those tournaments?!

Last year I was going more off of a feel for playing and breaking even. This year, I will look for tournament opportunities for overlay and pad with a better performance on h2h, triple ups or 50/50s. Fortunately, for overlays (where value is much higher per entry because the guaranteed money does not meet the number of entries), I stumbled upon a number of sites that aid in finding these. Namely, Super Lobby! which combines Draftkings and Fanduel (among others) to show overlay in tournaments. Incredibly useful for the people who are trying to be smart about entry fees.

For those that are curious how I did this past week, continue reading. Otherwise, I will post who I’m looking at and what I’m doing for Week 2 in the coming days! Again, if you’re looking to play or take a shot: Draftkings link! – Remember to search for a promo code on your favorite fantasy / insider website to valuable premium subscriptions (Rotogrinders, 4for4, fantasypros, teamrankings). Fanduel if you prefer .5 ppr and Kickers

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